Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on SECN+

South Carolina def. Arkansas 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: South Carolina 52.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

South Carolina beat visiting Arkansas 3-2 (11-25, 25-21, 19-25, 25-21, 15-11) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Olivia Borgman led South Carolina with 18 kills; Arkansas' Parker Duncan had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set12345Sets
ARK25212521112
S CAR11251925153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Outhit .214 to .184, South Carolina won anyway.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are South Carolina's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. South Carolina went in as RallyIQ's 53% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Arkansas 18–16 South Carolina

    South Carolina's low point. South Carolina then won 9 of the next 12 rallies and the set 25–21. That flipped the match to South Carolina.

    South Carolina 15% → 53%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Arkansas 1–0 South Carolina

    Down 0–1, South Carolina scored 5 straight to lead 5–1. The match swung to South Carolina.

    South Carolina 43% → 84%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Arkansas 10–12 South Carolina

    South Carolina closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    South Carolina 84% → >99%

South Carolina above 50Arkansas belowMax swing 9.5%

ArkansasSouth Carolina

Sideout %
Arkansas 61.7·South Carolina 56.7
Break %
Arkansas 43.3·South Carolina 38.3
Hitting
Arkansas .214·South Carolina .184
Longest run
Arkansas 11·South Carolina 5

Olivia Borgman
18 kills on .224, 21 points; 5 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

South Carolina above 50 · Arkansas below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+9.5% S CARrally 198 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.5% to South Carolina — set 4, ARK 21-22 S CAR. Kill by Olivia Borgman (set by Kiana Dinn). S CAR win probability 24% → 34%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ARK 64.0%36.0% S CAR

Arkansas wins

3-0
19.4%
3-1
24.5%
3-2
20.0%

South Carolina wins

3-0
7.5%
3-1
13.0%
3-2
15.6%
ARK break %
42.3% vs this opp
S CAR break %
39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Olivia Borgman (set by Kiana Dinn)

    Set 4 · ARK 21-22 S CAR · S CAR 24% → 34%

  2. 02

    Ace by Lilly Gillespie on Madi Benne

    Set 5 · ARK 1-2 S CAR · S CAR 50% → 59%

  3. 03

    Romani Thurman stuffed by Olivia Borgman & Ava Leahy

    Set 5 · ARK 1-3 S CAR · S CAR 59% → 68%

  4. 04
    ArkansasAce+9.1%

    Arkansas ace

    Set 5 · ARK 1-0 S CAR · ARK 47% → 57%

  5. 05
    Ava LeahyKill+9.0%

    Kill by Ava Leahy (set by Kiana Dinn)

    Set 4 · ARK 21-23 S CAR · S CAR 34% → 43%

  6. 06
    Kiki RemenspergerBad set+8.5%

    Bad set by Kiki Remensperger

    Set 5 · ARK 1-4 S CAR · S CAR 68% → 77%

  7. 07
    ArkansasService error+8.0%

    Arkansas service error

    Set 5 · ARK 10-13 S CAR · S CAR 84% → 92%

  8. 08

    Kill by Olivia Borgman (set by Kiana Dinn)

    Set 5 · ARK 1-5 S CAR · S CAR 77% → 84%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520644.31802560010.522.5
514632.25000070073.517.5
59319.3160011004211
58317.2940001006311
5001.00051131900212
22413-.154000400002
5000–512710001
5000–200400000
47528.071002801018
Team totals6027154.2145841357112011103
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518749.22400211106321
59120.400002400115.514.5
510329.2410005116414
5417.42900000031.55.5
5000–2601700000
5000–101500000
57828-.036000200007
55417.059000100216
5000–4112000001
5000–1503200000
2000–001000000
1012-.500000000000
1000–100000000
Team totals5325152.184471115741281595

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 11 ARK · S CAR 5

Set 1

25-11

Longest run 11 ARKS CAR 2

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 ARKS CAR 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 ARKS CAR 3

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 ARKS CAR 5

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 3 ARKS CAR 5

Bars above the line = South Carolina leads, below = Arkansas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Arkansas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%13/28
45%9/20
2
50%11/22
41%9/22
3
83%10/12
23%3/13
4
100%8/8
25%3/12
5
89%8/9
33%4/12
6
53%8/15
68%17/25
All
62%58/94
43%45/104

South Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%13/24
44%8/18
2
75%12/16
50%13/26
3
69%9/13
47%9/19
4
69%9/13
18%2/11
5
40%8/20
0%0/8
6
44%8/18
33%4/12
All
57%59/104
38%36/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#ARK-S CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1S CARS CARKillSydney Davisset Kiana Dinn+2.6
20-2S CARS CARAttack errRomani Thurman+2.6
31-2S CARARK×4Attack errElise Marchal+1.7
42-2ARKARK×4KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
53-2ARKARK×4AceArkansas+2.7
64-2ARKARK×4Attack errElise Marchal+2.7
74-3ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.8
85-3S CARARKKillLakin Laurendineset Madi Benne+1.9
95-4ARKS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.8
106-4S CARARK×3KillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
117-4ARKARK×3Attack errAlly Cavanaugh+2.7
128-4ARKARK×3BlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Aleki Alexander, Kiki Remensperger+2.5
138-5ARKS CARBlockedParker Duncanblk Ally Cavanaugh, Ava Leahy+1.5
149-5S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+1.7
159-6ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Jillian Bohannon+1.5
1610-6S CARARK×11KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.8
1711-6ARKARK×11Attack errSydney Davis+2.3
1812-6ARKARK×11KillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+1.9
1913-6ARKARK×11KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.4
2014-6ARKARK×11Attack errCeci Vance+1.0
2115-6ARKARK×11BlockedCeci Vanceblk Layla Smith, Romani Thurman+0.7
2216-6ARKARK×11KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+0.4
2317-6ARKARK×11KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+0.2
2418-6ARKARK×11BlockedElla Grivnablk Layla Smith, Parker Duncan+0.1
2519-6ARKARK×11KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+0.1
2620-6ARKARK×11BlockedCeci Vanceblk Romani Thurman, Layla Smith·
2720-7ARKS CARServe errArkansas·
2821-7S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina·
2922-7ARKARKAceArkansasaced Olivia Borgman·
3022-8ARKS CARServe errArkansas·
3123-8S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina·
3223-9ARKS CARAttack errLakin Laurendine·
3323-10S CARS CARKillElise Marchal·
3424-10S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina·
3524-11ARKS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn·
3625-11S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina·
Set 2
11-0ARKARKBlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Layla Smith, Romani Thurman+2.7
21-1ARKS CARServe errArkansas+1.8
32-1S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
43-1ARKARKBlockedAva Leahyblk Aleki Alexander, Romani Thurman+2.7
53-2ARKS CAR×3BlockedLakin Laurendineblk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy+1.8
63-3S CARS CAR×3BlockedRomani Thurmanblk Ava Leahy, Olivia Borgman+2.8
73-4S CARS CAR×3KillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.8
84-4S CARARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
94-5ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Gaby Cornier+2.0
105-5S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+2.0
115-6ARKS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd+2.0
126-6S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+2.0
136-7ARKS CARKillSydney Davisset Sydney Floyd+2.1
147-7S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+2.1
158-7ARKARKBlockedCeci Vanceblk Romani Thurman, Layla Smith+3.2
168-8ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.1
178-9S CARS CARBlockedRomani Thurmanblk Olivia Borgman, Sydney Davis+3.2
189-9S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.2
199-10ARKS CAR×3KillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.3
209-11S CARS CAR×3KillAva Leahyset Kiki Remensperger+3.3
219-12S CARS CAR×3BlockedLakin Laurendineblk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy+3.1
2210-12S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
2310-13ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+2.1
2411-13S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+1.9
2511-14ARKS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.2
2611-15S CARS CARAttack errParker Duncan+2.8
2712-15S CARARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.5
2812-16ARKS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd+1.9
2913-16S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.5
3013-17ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+2.0
3114-17S CARARK×3KillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+1.5
3215-17ARKARK×3KillLayla Smithset Kiana Dinn+3.0
3316-17ARKARK×3KillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+3.8
3416-18ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+3.0
3517-18S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.7
3617-19ARKS CAR×4Serve errArkansas+3.2
3717-20S CARS CAR×4BlockedLakin Laurendineblk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy+4.1
3817-21S CARS CAR×4KillElise Marchalset Lilly Gillespie+3.0
3917-22S CARS CAR×4KillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+1.8
4018-22S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+0.6
4119-22ARKARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.6
4219-23ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+1.9
4320-23S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+0.8
4420-24ARKS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd+1.6
4521-24S CARARKKillLaci Bohannanset Gaby Cornier+0.5
4621-25ARKS CARServe errArkansas+1.1
Set 3
11-0S CARARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+2.4
22-0ARKARKBlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Aleki Alexander, Romani Thurman+3.5
32-1ARKS CARBlockedLaci Bohannanblk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal+2.3
43-1S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+2.4
53-2ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+2.3
64-2S CARARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+2.5
74-3ARKS CARBlockedParker Duncanblk Ava Leahy, Ally Cavanaugh+2.4
85-3S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.5
95-4ARKS CARAttack errAleki Alexander+2.4
106-4S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
116-5ARKS CARKillSydney Davisset Sydney Floyd+2.5
126-6S CARS CARBlockedParker Duncanblk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal+3.9
137-6S CARARKAttack errCeci Vance+2.7
147-7ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.7
157-8S CARS CARAttack errLayla Smith+4.1
168-8S CARARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.8
179-8ARKARKBlockedElise Marchalblk Laci Bohannan+4.3
189-9ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.8
1910-9S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+3.0
2011-9ARKARKBlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Aleki Alexander, Kiki Remensperger+4.4
2111-10ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.8
2212-10S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+3.1
2312-11ARKS CARBlockedAleki Alexanderblk Olivia Borgman, Ava Leahy+2.9
2413-11S CARARK×4KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+3.2
2514-11ARKARK×4KillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+4.4
2615-11ARKARK×4KillParker Duncanset Gaby Cornier+3.8
2716-11ARKARK×4Attack errAlly Cavanaugh+3.1
2816-12ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+1.5
2917-12S CARARKAttack errCeci Vance+2.1
3018-12ARKARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.2
3118-13ARKS CAR×3KillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+0.9
3218-14S CARS CAR×3KillSydney Davis+2.1
3318-15S CARS CAR×3KillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+3.0
3419-15S CARARK×4KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.8
3520-15ARKARK×4KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.9
3621-15ARKARK×4Attack errCeci Vance+1.8
3722-15ARKARK×4KillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
3822-16ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+0.2
3922-17S CARS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+0.6
4023-17S CARARKAttack errOlivia Borgman+0.8
4124-17ARKARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+0.4
4224-18ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn·
4324-19S CARS CARBlockedRomani Thurmanblk Olivia Borgman, Ava Leahy+0.1
4425-19S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+0.3
Set 4
10-1ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.4
20-2S CARS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+3.5
31-2S CARARKAttack errOlivia Borgman+2.3
41-3ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+2.4
51-4S CARS CARAttack errParker Duncan+3.4
62-4S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+2.1
73-4ARKARKBad setOlivia Borgman+3.5
83-5ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+2.5
94-5S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+2.4
105-5ARKARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+3.9
115-6ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.7
126-6S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+2.7
136-7ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.7
147-7S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+2.7
158-7ARKARKKillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+4.2
168-8ARKS CAR×4Serve errArkansas+2.8
178-9S CARS CAR×4Attack errLayla Smith+4.3
188-10S CARS CAR×4KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+4.3
198-11S CARS CAR×4Attack errParker Duncan+4.0
209-11S CARARK×3KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.4
2110-11ARKARK×3KillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+4.1
2211-11ARKARK×3Bad setKiana Dinn+4.6
2311-12ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+3.2
2412-12S CARARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+3.2
2513-12ARKARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+5.0
2613-13ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+3.3
2714-13S CARARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+3.5
2815-13ARKARKAttack errAlly Cavanaugh+5.2
2915-14ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+3.2
3015-15S CARS CARAttack errLaci Bohannan+5.4
3116-15S CARARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+3.9
3216-16ARKS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+3.8
3317-16S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+4.1
3418-16ARKARKAttack errAlly Cavanaugh+6.0
3518-17ARKS CARAttack errLayla Smith+3.6
3618-18S CARS CARAttack errLaci Bohannan+6.4
3719-18S CARARKBad setKiana Dinn+4.7
3819-19ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+4.6
3920-19S CARARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+5.1
4020-20ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+5.0
4121-20S CARARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+5.7
4221-21ARKS CAR×5KillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+5.5
4321-22S CARS CAR×5KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+9.5
4421-23S CARS CAR×5KillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+9.0
4521-24S CARS CAR×5KillOlivia Borgmanset Maggie Penn+6.1
4621-25S CARS CAR×5KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+3.7
Set 5
11-0ARKARKAceArkansas+9.1
21-1ARKS CAR×5KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+6.1
31-2S CARS CAR×5AceLilly Gillespieaced Madi Benne+9.3
41-3S CARS CAR×5BlockedRomani Thurmanblk Olivia Borgman, Ava Leahy+9.2
51-4S CARS CAR×5Bad setKiki Remensperger+8.5
61-5S CARS CAR×5KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+7.4
72-5S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+4.0
82-6ARKS CAR×3BlockedLaci Bohannanblk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy+5.1
92-7S CARS CAR×3BlockedRomani Thurmanblk Olivia Borgman, Ava Leahy+5.9
102-8S CARS CAR×3Attack errAleki Alexander+4.1
113-8S CARARKAttack errOlivia Borgman+1.8
123-9ARKS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+2.6
134-9S CARARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+1.6
144-10ARKS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.5
155-10S CARARKServe errSouth Carolina+1.4
165-11ARKS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.2
176-11S CARARK×3KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
187-11ARKARK×3AceArkansasaced Elise Marchal+2.9
198-11ARKARK×3BlockedCeci Vanceblk Romani Thurman, Layla Smith+4.8
208-12ARKS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+5.2
219-12S CARARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.8
2210-12ARKARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+7.3
2310-13ARKS CARServe errArkansas+8.0
2410-14S CARS CARBlockedLaci Bohannanblk Elise Marchal+6.3
2511-14S CARARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
2611-15ARKS CARServe errArkansas+2.9

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).