Mississippi State def. South Carolina 3-0 (Oct 11)

FinalSun, Oct 11, 2026SECN

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Mississippi St. 86.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 11, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mississippi St. beat visiting South Carolina 3-0 (25-21, 25-14, 25-19) on Sun, Oct 11, 2026. Mississippi St.'s Bernardita Aguilar led with 11 kills, and McKenna Yates added 12 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:50 PM CT · final Oct 11

Set	1	2	3	Sets
S CAR	21	14	19	0
MISSST	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.500 and 11 kills for Bernardita Aguilar as Mississippi St. rolled past South Carolina.

Win probability never moved more than 2.3 points on one rally; South Carolina topped out at 24% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Mississippi St. at 87%.

South CarolinaMississippi St.

Break %+18.6 pts
32.150.7
Points won on own serve: 37 of 73 vs 18 of 56. South Carolina sided out 49.3% of the time.
Hitting+.144
.170.314
48 kills, 11 errors vs 35 kills, 16 errors.
Longest run+0
55
5 straight Mississippi St. points in the third set turned a 7–11 deficit into a 12–11 lead. Final score of the set: 25–19.

Mississippi St. above 50South Carolina belowMax swing 2.3%

South CarolinaMississippi St.

Aces: South Carolina 0·Mississippi St. 4
Serve err: South Carolina 6·Mississippi St. 3
Blocks: South Carolina 6·Mississippi St. 122 BS · 8 BA vs 4 BS · 16 BA
Digs: South Carolina 54·Mississippi St. 56

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Mississippi St. above 50 · South Carolina below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to Mississippi St. — set 1, S CAR 15-16 MISSST. Attack error by Madisyn Crnjac. MISSST win probability 84% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

S CAR 9.9%90.1% MISSST

South Carolina wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.6%

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

44.5%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.0%

S CAR break %: 36.8% vs this opp
MISSST break %: 46.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Madisyn CrnjacAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Madisyn Crnjac
Set 1 · S CAR 15-16 MISSST · MISSST 84% → 87%
02
Noella ObiKill+2.3%
Kill by Noella Obi (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 1 · S CAR 14-14 MISSST · MISSST 82% → 85%
03
Elise Marchal&Olivia BorgmanBlock+2.2%
Paloma Routaboul stuffed by Elise Marchal & Olivia Borgman
Set 1 · S CAR 19-20 MISSST · S CAR 10% → 12%
04
Lindsey MangelsonKill+2.2%
Kill by Lindsey Mangelson (set by Mary Neal)
Set 1 · S CAR 13-12 MISSST · MISSST 80% → 83%
05
Olivia BorgmanBlock+2.1%
Bernardita Aguilar stuffed by Olivia Borgman
Set 1 · S CAR 10-6 MISSST · S CAR 20% → 22%
06
Ava LeahyKill+2.1%
Kill by Ava Leahy (set by Kiana Dinn)
Set 1 · S CAR 12-7 MISSST · S CAR 22% → 24%
07
Kiana DinnBad set+2.1%
Bad set by Kiana Dinn
Set 1 · S CAR 13-11 MISSST · MISSST 78% → 80%
08
Noella ObiKill+2.1%
Kill by Noella Obi (set by Erin Kline)
Set 1 · S CAR 20-23 MISSST · MISSST 90% → 92%

Box score

Official NCAA box

South Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Elise MarchalOPP	3	7	0	23	.304	0	0	3	0	1	3	2.5	9.5
10Madisyn CrnjacOH	3	8	3	27	.185	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	8
21Olivia BorgmanOH	3	6	5	27	.037	0	1	9	1	1	1	1.5	7.5
7Ava LeahyMB	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	5	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Ella GrivnaMB	3	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Kiana DinnS	3	0	0	0	–	15	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
2Ally CavanaughOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
18Lilly GillespieL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	14	0	0	0	0	0
3Maggie PennL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
6Sydney FloydS	3	0	0	0	–	11	2	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	16	112	.170	33	6	54	4	2	8	6	54

Mississippi St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Noella ObiOPP	3	8	1	18	.389	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	13
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	10	4	42	.143	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	12
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	10	3	21	.333	1	0	0	5	0	3	1.5	11.5
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	2	3	1	4	3	11
13Sydnie WallerOH	3	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	3	0	4	2	3
5Erin KlineS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	11	1	20	.500	2	0	0	6	0	1	0.5	11.5
24Cayley HansonS	3	0	0	0	–	21	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	11	118	.314	44	4	3	56	4	16	12	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 S CAR · MISSST 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 S CARMISSST 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 S CARMISSST 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 5 S CARMISSST 5

Bars above the line = Mississippi St. leads, below = South Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	30%3/10
2	54%7/13	56%9/16
3	55%6/11	13%1/8
4	40%6/15	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	14%1/7
6	42%5/12	29%2/7
All	49%36/73	32%18/56

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	64%9/14
2	50%7/14	50%7/14
3	88%7/8	36%4/11
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	68%38/56	51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

129 rallies

#	S CAR-MISSST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+0.9
2	1-1	MISSST	S CAR	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy	+1.0
3	1-2	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+0.9
4	2-2	MISSST	S CAR	Bad set	Mary Neal		+1.0
5	3-2	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.6
6	3-3	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Erin Kline	+1.0
7	3-4	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
8	4-4	MISSST	S CAR×3	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Kiana Dinn	+1.0
9	5-4	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Lilly Gillespie	+1.7
10	6-4	S CAR	S CAR×3	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Lilly Gillespie	+1.9
11	6-5	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+1.2
12	7-5	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Sydney Floyd	+1.4
13	8-5	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Noella Obi		+2.0
14	8-6	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.2
15	9-6	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ella Grivna	set Sydney Floyd	+1.5
16	10-6	S CAR	S CAR	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Olivia Borgman	+2.1
17	10-7	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.2
18	11-7	MISSST	S CAR	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Ally Cavanaugh, Ava Leahy	+1.6
19	12-7	S CAR	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+2.1
20	12-8	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.1
21	12-9	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Olivia Borgman	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Sydnie Waller	+1.9
22	13-9	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+1.7
23	13-10	S CAR	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+1.3
24	13-11	MISSST	MISSST×3	Bad set	Kiana Dinn		+2.1
25	13-12	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+2.2
26	14-12	MISSST	S CAR	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.8
27	14-13	S CAR	MISSST	Blocked	Ella Grivna	blk Noella Obi	+1.5
28	14-14	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+2.3
29	15-14	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.8
30	15-15	S CAR	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.6
31	15-16	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Madisyn Crnjac		+2.3
32	15-17	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Ella Grivna	blk Noella Obi	+2.0
33	16-17	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Sydney Floyd	+1.4
34	16-18	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.5
35	17-18	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	+1.4
36	17-19	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+1.6
37	17-20	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Lindsey Mangelson	+1.8
38	18-20	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	+1.0
39	19-20	S CAR	S CAR	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Elise Marchal, Olivia Borgman	+2.2
40	19-21	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.9
41	20-21	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+1.7
42	20-22	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+2.0
43	20-23	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Erin Kline	+2.1
44	21-23	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.8
45	21-24	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Erin Kline	+1.4
46	21-25	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+0.9
2	0-2	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.8
3	1-2	MISSST	S CAR	Attack err	Sydnie Waller		+0.6
4	1-3	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.6
5	2-3	MISSST	S CAR	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.6
6	2-4	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Sydnie Waller	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.6
7	3-4	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.6
8	3-5	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+0.6
9	4-5	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.6
10	4-6	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
11	5-6	MISSST	S CAR	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.7
12	5-7	S CAR	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
13	5-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Olivia Borgman	blk Sydnie Waller, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+0.8
14	5-9	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Ava Leahy	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Paloma Routaboul	+0.7
15	6-9	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	+0.4
16	6-10	S CAR	MISSST×3	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.5
17	6-11	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Maggie Penn	+0.5
18	6-12	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.4
19	7-12	MISSST	S CAR×3	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.2
20	8-12	S CAR	S CAR×3	Bad set	Mary Neal		+0.5
21	9-12	S CAR	S CAR×3	Bad set	Erin Kline		+0.6
22	9-13	S CAR	MISSST×4	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.5
23	9-14	MISSST	MISSST×4	Blocked	Ava Leahy	blk Noella Obi	+0.6
24	9-15	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.4
25	9-16	MISSST	MISSST×4	Blocked	Madisyn Crnjac	blk Sydnie Waller, Noella Obi	+0.3
26	10-16	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.1
27	10-17	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.2
28	10-18	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Madisyn Crnjac	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.1
29	11-18	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.1
30	11-19	S CAR	MISSST×4	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
31	11-20	MISSST	MISSST×4	Blocked	Ally Cavanaugh	blk Paloma Routaboul, Noella Obi	+0.1
32	11-21	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	·
33	11-22	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	·
34	12-22	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Sydney Floyd	·
35	12-23	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	·
36	13-23	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	·
37	13-24	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	·
38	14-24	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	·
39	14-25	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	·
Set 3
1	1-0	S CAR	S CAR	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Elise Marchal	+0.5
2	1-1	S CAR	MISSST	Serve err	South Carolina		+0.3
3	2-1	MISSST	S CAR×5	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.4
4	3-1	S CAR	S CAR×5	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.6
5	4-1	S CAR	S CAR×5	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Elise Marchal, Ava Leahy	+0.6
6	5-1	S CAR	S CAR×5	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.7
7	6-1	S CAR	S CAR×5	Bad set	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.7
8	6-2	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.4
9	7-2	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.5
10	7-3	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Erin Kline	+0.4
11	7-4	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Madisyn Crnjac	+0.6
12	8-4	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.5
13	8-5	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
14	8-6	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Lindsey Mangelson	aced Olivia Borgman	+0.6
15	9-6	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Sydney Floyd	+0.5
16	9-7	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
17	10-7	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	+0.6
18	11-7	S CAR	S CAR	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.8
19	11-8	S CAR	MISSST×5	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Paloma Routaboul	+0.4
20	11-9	MISSST	MISSST×5	Blocked	Ally Cavanaugh	blk Paloma Routaboul, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+0.7
21	11-10	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.7
22	11-11	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.7
23	11-12	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.7
24	12-12	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ava Leahy	set Kiana Dinn	+0.5
25	12-13	S CAR	MISSST×4	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.5
26	12-14	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Kiana Dinn	+0.6
27	12-15	MISSST	MISSST×4	Blocked	Ava Leahy	blk Noella Obi, Sydnie Waller	+0.5
28	12-16	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.4
29	13-16	MISSST	S CAR×4	Kill	Madisyn Crnjac	set Kiana Dinn	+0.2
30	14-16	S CAR	S CAR×4	Bad set	Erin Kline		+0.5
31	15-16	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Lilly Gillespie	+0.6
32	16-16	S CAR	S CAR×4	Kill	Olivia Borgman	set Kiana Dinn	+0.8
33	16-17	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
34	17-17	MISSST	S CAR	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.6
35	17-18	S CAR	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
36	18-18	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Elise Marchal	set Kiana Dinn	+0.7
37	18-19	S CAR	MISSST×4	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
38	18-20	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.9
39	18-21	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+0.7
40	18-22	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Olivia Borgman		+0.4
41	19-22	MISSST	S CAR	Kill	Ally Cavanaugh	set Sydney Floyd	+0.2
42	19-23	S CAR	MISSST×3	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
43	19-24	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
44	19-25	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Ally Cavanaugh	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	·

Score shown after each rally, South Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mississippi St. def. South Carolina 3–0

.500 and 11 kills for Bernardita Aguilar as Mississippi St. rolled past South Carolina.