Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 18, 2026Watch on SECN

South Carolina def. Ole Miss 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Ole Miss 57.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

South Carolina won at Ole Miss 3-1 (23-25, 25-14, 25-15, 25-16) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. South Carolina's Olivia Borgman led with 18 kills, and Lilly Gillespie added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 18

Set1234Sets
S CAR232525253
MISS251415161

Match story · written from the play-by-play

18 kills from Olivia Borgman, and South Carolina got past Ole Miss.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are South Carolina's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Ole Miss was RallyIQ's 58% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · South Carolina 12–12 Ole Miss

    South Carolina scored 10 straight to go from 12–12 to a 22–12 lead. The match swung to South Carolina.

    South Carolina 46% → 72%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · South Carolina 11–13 Ole Miss

    South Carolina scored 4 straight to turn an 11–13 deficit into a 15–13 lead.

    South Carolina 63% → 82%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · South Carolina 15–15 Ole Miss

    4 straight South Carolina points broke a 15–15 tie and made it 19–15.

    South Carolina 73% → 93%

Ole Miss above 50South Carolina belowMax swing 9.6%

South CarolinaOle Miss

Sideout %
South Carolina 60.6·Ole Miss 43.3
Break %
South Carolina 56.7·Ole Miss 39.4
Hitting
South Carolina .333·Ole Miss .126
Longest run
South Carolina 10·Ole Miss 5

Olivia Borgman
18 kills on .325, 19.5 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ole Miss above 50 · South Carolina below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.6% MISSrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Ole Miss — set 1, S CAR 23-25 MISS. Kill by Shayla Meyer (set by Bella Bonanno). MISS win probability 65% → 74%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

S CAR 51.1%48.9% MISS

South Carolina wins

3-0
13.0%
3-1
19.2%
3-2
18.9%

Ole Miss wins

3-0
12.1%
3-1
18.3%
3-2
18.6%
S CAR break %
41.2% vs this opp
MISS break %
41.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Shayla MeyerKill+9.6%

    Kill by Shayla Meyer (set by Bella Bonanno)

    Set 1 · S CAR 23-25 MISS · MISS 65% → 74%

  2. 02

    Kill by Olivia Borgman (set by Kiana Dinn)

    Set 1 · S CAR 23-23 MISS · S CAR 34% → 42%

  3. 03
    South CarolinaService error+6.7%

    South Carolina service error

    Set 1 · S CAR 23-24 MISS · MISS 58% → 65%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ally Cavanaugh (set by Sydney Floyd)

    Set 4 · S CAR 17-15 MISS · S CAR 77% → 83%

  5. 05
    Ryea JacksonKill+5.6%

    Kill by Ryea Jackson (set by Tenesyn Frye)

    Set 4 · S CAR 15-15 MISS · MISS 22% → 27%

  6. 06
    Jaidyn HartsfieldAttack error+5.6%

    Attack error by Jaidyn Hartsfield

    Set 4 · S CAR 18-15 MISS · S CAR 83% → 89%

  7. 07
    Ceci VanceKill+5.5%

    Kill by Ceci Vance (set by Sydney Floyd)

    Set 4 · S CAR 15-13 MISS · S CAR 76% → 82%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ally Cavanaugh

    Set 4 · S CAR 14-13 MISS · S CAR 71% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418540.32500091031.519.5
410118.50000130174.514.5
47015.467001100007
4203.66700000010.52.5
4001.000222290010.52.5
4000–0001010000
49325.24010010010.59.5
48518.16700020031.59.5
4000–5231310002
4000–2020400002
1000–001000000
Team totals5414120.3334868524116998
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415946.13011163010.516.5
49525.16030060010.59.5
44412.000002200426
43311.000000100214
4103.333110010031.52.5
36416.12500230010.56.5
4000–3201820002
4000–2112700001
34114.214001200004
1000–000000000
Team totals4226127.1263948466012670

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 10 S CAR · MISS 5

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 S CARMISS 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 8 S CARMISS 5

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 10 S CARMISS 4

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 6 S CARMISS 4

Bars above the line = Ole Miss leads, below = South Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%6/7
50%4/8
2
60%6/10
67%12/18
3
46%6/13
71%15/21
4
50%4/8
50%4/8
5
100%4/4
50%4/8
6
60%3/5
70%7/10
All
62%29/47
63%46/73

Ole Miss

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%6/13
38%3/8
2
21%6/28
14%1/7
3
45%5/11
60%9/15
4
50%4/8
50%5/10
5
33%3/9
0%0/4
6
75%3/4
0%0/3
All
37%27/73
38%18/47

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#S CAR-MISSSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S CARS CARAttack errJaidyn Hartsfield+2.6
21-1S CARMISSKillTenesyn Fryeset Jaidyn Hartsfield+1.7
32-1MISSS CARAttack errShayla Meyer+1.8
43-1S CARS CARBlockedJaidyn Hartsfieldblk Ava Leahy, Olivia Borgman+2.7
53-2S CARMISSKillJorda Crookset Tenesyn Frye+1.7
63-3MISSMISSKillShayla Meyerset Tenesyn Frye+2.7
74-3MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.9
85-3S CARS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.8
95-4S CARMISSKillKeirstyn Carltonset Tenesyn Frye+1.8
106-4MISSS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd+2.0
116-5S CARMISS×4KillShayla Meyerset Vivianna Samaniego+1.8
126-6MISSMISS×4KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego+2.9
136-7MISSMISS×4KillJaidyn Hartsfield+2.9
146-8MISSMISS×4Attack errCeci Vance+2.8
157-8MISSS CARBlockedShayla Meyerblk Ceci Vance, Ava Leahy+1.9
167-9S CARMISS×3Attack errCeci Vance+2.0
177-10MISSMISS×3KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Sydney Floyd+2.7
187-11MISSMISS×3KillRyea Jacksonset Vivianna Samaniego+2.4
198-11MISSS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+1.4
208-12S CARMISSKillRyea Jacksonset Vivianna Samaniego+1.7
219-12MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+1.4
229-13S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Tenesyn Frye+1.7
239-14MISS
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
2410-14MISSS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+1.1
2510-15S CARMISSKillJorda Crookset Tenesyn Frye+1.4
2611-15MISSS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.1
2711-16S CARMISSBlockedAlly Cavanaughblk Keirstyn Carlton, Shayla Meyer+1.4
2812-16MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+1.0
2913-16S CARS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd+2.1
3013-17S CARMISSKillJorda Crookset Vivianna Samaniego+1.8
3114-17MISSS CARBlockedJorda Crookblk Ceci Vance, Ava Leahy+1.4
3215-17S CARS CARAttack errJorda Crook+2.8
3315-18S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+2.4
3415-19MISSMISSAceOle Missaced Olivia Borgman+2.8
3516-19MISSS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+1.3
3617-19S CARS CARAttack errRyea Jackson+2.9
3717-20S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+2.6
3818-20MISSS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+1.9
3918-21S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Tenesyn Frye+2.7
4019-21MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.9
4120-21S CARS CARBlockedRyea Jacksonblk Olivia Borgman, Ava Leahy+4.2
4220-22S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+3.8
4320-23MISSMISSAttack errOlivia Borgman+4.3
4421-23MISSS CAR×3KillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.6
4522-23S CARS CAR×3BlockedShayla Meyerblk Ava Leahy, Kiana Dinn+4.4
4623-23S CARS CAR×3KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+7.5
4723-24S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+6.7
4823-25MISSMISSKillShayla Meyerset Bella Bonanno+9.6
Set 2
11-0MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+1.6
22-0S CARS CARAttack errKeirstyn Carlton+2.4
32-1S CARMISSKillKeirstyn Carltonset Vivianna Samaniego+1.6
43-1MISSS CAR×7KillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.7
54-1S CARS CAR×7AceSydney Floydaced Bella Bonanno+2.4
65-1S CARS CAR×7KillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+2.3
76-1S CARS CAR×7AceSydney Floydaced Jaidyn Hartsfield+2.1
87-1S CARS CAR×7Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+1.8
98-1S CARS CAR×7KillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+1.5
109-1S CARS CAR×7KillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+1.2
119-2S CARMISS×5Attack errOlivia Borgman+0.6
129-3MISSMISS×5AceOle Missaced Maggie Penn+1.2
139-4MISSMISS×5KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Shayla Meyer+1.5
149-5MISSMISS×5KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego+1.8
159-6MISSMISS×5KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego+2.1
1610-6MISSS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+1.7
1710-7S CARMISSKillJorda Crookset Vivianna Samaniego+1.4
1811-7MISSS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+1.7
1911-8S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Tenesyn Frye+1.5
2012-8MISSS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+1.8
2113-8S CARS CARAttack errJorda Crook+2.2
2213-9S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+1.2
2314-9MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+1.5
2414-10S CARMISSKillShayla Meyerset Tenesyn Frye+1.2
2515-10MISSS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+1.5
2616-10S CARS CARKillElise Marchal+1.7
2716-11S CARMISSKillKeirstyn Carltonset Vivianna Samaniego+0.8
2816-12MISSMISSBlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Keirstyn Carlton, Jorda Crook+1.7
2917-12MISSS CAR×8KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.5
3018-12S CARS CAR×8Bad setBella Bonanno+1.6
3119-12S CARS CAR×8KillAlly Cavanaughset Vivianna Samaniego+1.1
3220-12S CARS CAR×8Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+0.6
3321-12S CARS CAR×8KillAva Leahy+0.3
3422-12S CARS CAR×8KillOlivia Borgman+0.1
3523-12S CARS CAR×8KillAva Leahyset Keirstyn Carlton·
3624-12S CARS CAR×8KillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd·
3724-13S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego·
3824-14MISSMISSBlockedAlly Cavanaughblk Jaidyn Hartsfield, Ryea Jackson·
3925-14MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd·
Set 3
11-0S CARS CARBad setVivianna Samaniego+3.5
21-1S CARMISSKillSophie Taylorset Vivianna Samaniego+2.3
32-1MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+2.4
42-2S CARMISS×4KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Shayla Meyer+2.4
52-3MISSMISS×4KillShayla Meyerset Vivianna Samaniego+3.5
62-4MISSMISS×4KillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Shayla Meyer+3.5
72-5MISSMISS×4KillSophie Taylorset Bella Bonanno+3.3
83-5MISSS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.1
94-5S CARS CARBad setVivianna Samaniego+3.4
104-6S CARMISSKillRyea Jacksonset Vivianna Samaniego+2.4
115-6MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+2.4
125-7S CARMISSAttack errCeci Vance+2.5
136-7MISSS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.4
146-8S CARMISSBlockedCeci Vanceblk Ryea Jackson, Tenesyn Frye+2.6
157-8MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+2.5
168-8S CARS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+4.0
178-9S CARMISS×3Bad setKiana Dinn+2.8
188-10MISSMISS×3KillShayla Meyerset Bella Bonanno+4.0
198-11MISSMISS×3KillJorda Crookset Vivianna Samaniego+3.7
209-11MISSS CAR×4KillElla Grivnaset Kiana Dinn+2.3
2110-11S CARS CAR×4KillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+3.9
2211-11S CARS CAR×4Attack errJorda Crook+4.4
2312-11S CARS CAR×4Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+4.7
2412-12S CARMISSKillJorda Crookset Vivianna Samaniego+3.1
2513-12MISSS CAR×10Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+3.3
2614-12S CARS CAR×10BlockedKeirstyn Carltonblk Ava Leahy, Olivia Borgman+4.9
2715-12S CARS CAR×10AceLilly Gillespie+4.7
2816-12S CARS CAR×10KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+4.1
2917-12S CARS CAR×10KillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+3.3
3018-12S CARS CAR×10AceLilly Gillespieaced Jaidyn Hartsfield+2.4
3119-12S CARS CAR×10KillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+1.5
3220-12S CARS CAR×10KillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+0.9
3321-12S CARS CAR×10BlockedKeirstyn Carltonblk Ava Leahy+0.4
3422-12S CARS CAR×10KillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+0.2
3522-13S CARMISSAttack errOlivia Borgman·
3623-13MISSS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+0.1
3724-13S CARS CARKillAva Leahyset Sydney Floyd·
3824-14S CARMISSKillSophie Taylorset Tenesyn Frye·
3924-15MISSMISSBlockedOlivia Borgmanblk Ryea Jackson, Tenesyn Frye·
4025-15MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie·
Set 4
10-1MISSMISSAceVivianna Samaniegoaced Lilly Gillespie+3.6
21-1MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+2.5
32-1S CARS CARBad setVivianna Samaniego+3.8
42-2S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+2.5
53-2MISSS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+2.7
63-3S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego+2.6
73-4MISSMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Vivianna Samaniego+3.9
84-4MISSS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+2.7
95-4S CARS CARAttack errRyea Jackson+4.1
105-5S CARMISS×4KillShayla Meyerset Vivianna Samaniego+2.7
115-6MISSMISS×4Attack errAlly Cavanaugh+4.1
125-7MISSMISS×4BlockedAva Leahyblk Ryea Jackson, Tenesyn Frye+4.0
135-8MISSMISS×4Bad setSydney Floyd+3.7
146-8MISSS CARKillCeci Vanceset Ally Cavanaugh+2.3
157-8S CARS CARBlockedRyea Jacksonblk Ceci Vance, Ella Grivna+3.9
167-9S CARMISSKillJaidyn Hartsfieldset Tenesyn Frye+2.8
178-9MISSS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+2.7
188-10S CARMISSAttack errCeci Vance+2.9
199-10MISSS CARKillElla Grivnaset Kiana Dinn+2.8
209-11S CARMISSKillSophie Taylorset Tenesyn Frye+3.0
2110-11MISSS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.9
2210-12S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+3.1
2311-12MISSS CARServe errOle Miss+3.0
2411-13S CARMISSKillShayla Meyerset Vivianna Samaniego+3.2
2512-13MISSS CAR×4BlockedJaidyn Hartsfieldblk Ally Cavanaugh, Ava Leahy+3.1
2613-13S CARS CAR×4KillCeci Vanceset Lilly Gillespie+5.1
2714-13S CARS CAR×4KillAlly Cavanaugh+5.5
2815-13S CARS CAR×4KillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+5.5
2915-14S CARMISSKillShayla Meyerset Vivianna Samaniego+3.4
3015-15MISSMISSKillRyea Jacksonset Tenesyn Frye+5.6
3116-15MISSS CAR×4Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+4.1
3217-15S CARS CAR×4KillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+6.1
3318-15S CARS CAR×4Attack errJaidyn Hartsfield+5.6
3419-15S CARS CAR×4KillAlly Cavanaughset Sydney Floyd+4.6
3519-16S CARMISSServe errSouth Carolina+2.2
3620-16MISSS CAR×6Serve errOle Miss+3.2
3721-16S CARS CAR×6AceKiana Dinnaced Jaidyn Hartsfield+3.2
3822-16S CARS CAR×6Attack errSophie Taylor+1.8
3923-16S CARS CAR×6AceKiana Dinnaced Bella Bonanno+0.7
4024-16S CARS CAR×6Attack errShayla Meyer+0.2
4125-16S CARS CAR×6Attack errShayla Meyer·

Score shown after each rally, South Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).