FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Arizona St. def. Princeton 3–0

(25-19, 25-13, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PRINCE	19	13	14	0
AZ ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AZ ST above 50 · PRINCE below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Princeton — set 1, PRINCE 8-4 AZ ST. Princeton ace on Aniya Clinton. AZ ST win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PRINCE 0.2%99.8% AZ ST

Princeton wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.1%

Arizona St. wins

3-0

85.1%

3-1

13.4%

3-2

1.3%

PRINCE break %: 29.5% vs this opp
AZ ST break %: 51.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
PRINCE serverAce+0.1%
Princeton ace on Aniya Clinton
Set 1 · PRINCE 8-4 AZ ST · PRINCE 1% → 1%
02
AZ ST serverAce+0.1%
Arizona St. ace on Shelby Burriss
Set 1 · PRINCE 11-10 AZ ST · AZ ST 99% → 100%
03
Ella LomigoraKill+0.1%
Kill by Ella Lomigora (set by Elle Mottola)
Set 1 · PRINCE 9-7 AZ ST · AZ ST 99% → 99%
04
AZ ST serverService error+0.1%
Arizona St. service error
Set 1 · PRINCE 11-8 AZ ST · PRINCE 1% → 1%
05
Una VajagicAttack error+0.1%
Una Vajagic stuffed by Jackie Onyechi & Sydney Draper
Set 1 · PRINCE 9-5 AZ ST · PRINCE 1% → 1%
06
Aniya ClintonKill+0.1%
Kill by Aniya Clinton (set by Ella Lomigora)
Set 1 · PRINCE 12-12 AZ ST · AZ ST 100% → 100%
07
Ashtyn SimsKill+0.1%
Kill by Ashtyn Sims (set by Sydney Draper)
Set 1 · PRINCE 6-3 AZ ST · PRINCE 0% → 0%
08
Ava HarringtonKill+0.1%
Kill by Ava Harrington (set by Sydney Draper)
Set 1 · PRINCE 10-7 AZ ST · PRINCE 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Princetonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Sarah HomOH	3	7	2	18	.278	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	7.5
24Ava HarringtonMB	3	6	2	17	.235	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	6
9Shelby BurrissMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6
3Ashtyn SimsOH	3	4	6	18	-.111	1	0	3	4	4	0	0	4
10Jackie OnyechiMB	3	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
19Sydney DraperS	3	1	0	5	.200	23	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Erin McNairOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
1Sydney BoldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	1	0	0	0
14Taylor ClarkeOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
12Lia SkufcaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	15	79	.139	25	1	7	25	10	4	2	46

Arizona St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Noemie GloverOPP	3	12	4	23	.348	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	13
1Una VajagicOH	3	7	1	16	.375	0	4	1	2	0	1	0.5	11.5
13Piper RamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	2	6	0	0	0	3
8Elle MottolaS	3	0	0	0	–	28	1	2	7	0	1	0.5	1.5
19Tosia SerafinowskaMB	2	5	0	7	.714	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	7
25Ella LomigoraMB	2	5	0	5	1.000	2	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Aniya ClintonOH	3	7	4	19	.158	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.5	7.5
4Ella LewisOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
15Faith FrameL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
7Zoey BurgessMB	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
43Kiylah PresleyOH	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2
11Isabella CostantiniS	2	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
21Paige LehmanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
20Grace MartinOH	2	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
2Ella HopeMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Ziva LabinjanS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	12	86	.337	39	10	7	33	1	12	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 PRINCE · AZ ST 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 PRINCEAZ ST 3

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 PRINCEAZ ST 5

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 4 PRINCEAZ ST 7

Bars above the line = Arizona St. leads, below = Princeton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Princeton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	46%6/13
2	54%7/13	0%0/7
3	30%6/20	22%2/9
4	45%5/11	14%1/7
5	71%5/7	17%1/6
6	45%5/11	17%1/6
All	48%35/73	23%11/48

Arizona St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	58%7/12
2	100%7/7	36%4/11
3	78%7/9	61%11/18
4	86%6/7	54%7/13
5	71%5/7	58%7/12
6	100%5/5	29%2/7
All	77%37/48	52%38/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	PRINCE-AZ ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PRINCE	AZ ST	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.0
2	1-1	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Ashtyn Sims	+0.0
3	1-2	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
4	2-2	AZ ST	PRINCE×3	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.0
5	3-2	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.1
6	4-2	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
7	4-3	PRINCE	AZ ST	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
8	5-3	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
9	6-3	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
10	6-4	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
11	7-4	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
12	8-4	PRINCE	PRINCE	Ace	PRINCE server	aced Aniya Clinton	+0.1
13	8-5	PRINCE	AZ ST	Attack err	Jackie Onyechi		+0.1
14	9-5	AZ ST	PRINCE	Attack err	Una Vajagic	blk Jackie Onyechi, Sydney Draper	+0.1
15	9-6	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
16	9-7	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
17	10-7	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
18	10-8	PRINCE	AZ ST	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.1
19	11-8	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.1
20	11-9	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Shelby Burriss	+0.1
21	11-10	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Shelby Burriss	+0.1
22	12-10	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
23	12-11	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
24	12-12	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Ella Lomigora	+0.1
25	13-12	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
26	13-13	PRINCE	AZ ST×3	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.1
27	13-14	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Isabella Costantini	+0.1
28	13-15	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Attack err	Ava Harrington		+0.1
29	14-15	AZ ST	PRINCE	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.1
30	14-16	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
31	14-17	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Sydney Bold	+0.1
32	15-17	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sydney Draper	set Sydney Bold	+0.0
33	15-18	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
34	16-18	AZ ST	PRINCE	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.0
35	16-19	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
36	16-20	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Ella Lomigora	+0.0
37	17-20	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
38	17-21	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
39	17-22	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Ashtyn Sims	+0.0
40	18-22	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
41	18-23	PRINCE	AZ ST	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
42	19-23	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
43	19-24	PRINCE	AZ ST	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims	blk Tosia Serafinowska, Noemie Glover	+0.0
44	19-25	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims	blk Tosia Serafinowska, Elle Mottola	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Sarah Hom		+0.0
2	0-2	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
3	1-2	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
4	1-3	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
5	1-4	AZ ST	AZ ST	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
6	2-4	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
7	2-5	PRINCE	AZ ST×4	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
8	2-6	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
9	2-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
10	2-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Ashtyn Sims	+0.0
11	3-8	AZ ST	PRINCE	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.0
12	3-9	PRINCE	AZ ST	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims	blk Tosia Serafinowska, Noemie Glover	+0.0
13	4-9	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
14	4-10	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
15	4-11	AZ ST	AZ ST	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Ashtyn Sims	+0.0
16	5-11	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
17	5-12	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
18	5-13	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Jackie Onyechi	blk Una Vajagic, Zoey Burgess	+0.0
19	6-13	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
20	6-14	PRINCE	AZ ST	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
21	7-14	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Jackie Onyechi	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
22	7-15	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
23	7-16	AZ ST	AZ ST	Bad set	Sydney Bold		+0.0
24	8-16	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
25	8-17	PRINCE	AZ ST×5	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
26	8-18	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Shelby Burriss	blk Aniya Clinton, Tosia Serafinowska	+0.0
27	8-19	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
28	8-20	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Attack err	Sarah Hom		+0.0
29	8-21	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Tosia Serafinowska	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
30	9-21	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
31	9-22	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
32	10-22	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
33	10-23	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
34	11-23	AZ ST	PRINCE	Attack err	Aniya Clinton		+0.0
35	12-23	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
36	12-24	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Aniya Clinton	set Isabella Costantini	+0.0
37	13-24	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Jackie Onyechi	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
38	13-25	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Isabella Costantini	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
2	2-0	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.0
3	3-0	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Attack err	Noemie Glover		+0.0
4	3-1	PRINCE	AZ ST	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
5	4-1	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
6	4-2	PRINCE	AZ ST×3	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
7	4-3	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Team	+0.0
8	4-4	AZ ST	AZ ST×3	Kill	Ella Lomigora	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
9	5-4	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
10	5-5	PRINCE	AZ ST×7	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
11	5-6	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Attack err	Ava Harrington		+0.0
12	5-7	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.0
13	5-8	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Faith Frame	+0.0
14	5-9	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.0
15	5-10	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Bad set	Sydney Bold		+0.0
16	5-11	AZ ST	AZ ST×7	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Sarah Hom	+0.0
17	6-11	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
18	6-12	PRINCE	AZ ST×4	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
19	6-13	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
20	6-14	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Attack err	Shelby Burriss		+0.0
21	6-15	AZ ST	AZ ST×4	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Erin McNair	+0.0
22	7-15	AZ ST	PRINCE	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
23	7-16	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Zoey Burgess	set Elle Mottola	+0.0
24	8-16	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
25	8-17	PRINCE	AZ ST×5	Kill	Kiylah Presley	set Ziva Labinjan	+0.0
26	8-18	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Faith Frame	+0.0
27	8-19	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Kill	Una Vajagic	set Ziva Labinjan	+0.0
28	8-20	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Team	+0.0
29	8-21	AZ ST	AZ ST×5	Ace	AZ ST server	aced Ashtyn Sims	+0.0
30	9-21	AZ ST	PRINCE×4	Serve err	AZ ST server		+0.0
31	10-21	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Attack err	Kiylah Presley	blk Jackie Onyechi, Sarah Hom	+0.0
32	11-21	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Attack err	Ella Hope		+0.0
33	12-21	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Attack err	Grace Martin		+0.0
34	12-22	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Ella Hope	set Ziva Labinjan	+0.0
35	12-23	AZ ST	AZ ST	Attack err	Taylor Clarke	blk Grace Martin, Ella Lomigora	+0.0
36	13-23	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
37	13-24	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Kiylah Presley	set Ziva Labinjan	+0.0
38	14-24	AZ ST	PRINCE	Kill	Taylor Clarke	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
39	14-25	PRINCE	AZ ST	Kill	Noemie Glover	set Faith Frame	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Princeton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.