Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Princeton def. Harvard 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Harvard 65.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Princeton won at Harvard 3-1 (19-25, 25-18, 25-21, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Ava Harrington led Princeton with 12 kills; Harvard's Kayla Nwabueze had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
PRINCE192525253
HARV251821231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Princeton, a 35% pick, over Harvard.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Princeton's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Harvard at 65% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Princeton 19–18 Harvard

    Princeton scored 3 straight to stretch a 19–18 lead to 22–18.

    Princeton 77% → 95%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Princeton 22–18 Harvard

    Harvard scored 4 straight to erase an 18–22 deficit and tie it at 22.

    Princeton 95% → 71%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Princeton 22–22 Harvard

    Princeton won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Princeton 71% → >99%

Harvard above 50Princeton belowMax swing 12.6%

PrincetonHarvard

Sideout %
Princeton 64.8·Harvard 60.2
Break %
Princeton 39.8·Harvard 35.2
Hitting
Princeton .176·Harvard .188
Longest run
Princeton 6·Harvard 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Harvard above 50 · Princeton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.6% PRINCErally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.6% to Princeton — set 4, PRINCE 25-23 HARV. Attack error by Sofia Rossi. HARV win probability 13% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PRINCE 34.9%65.1% HARV

Princeton wins

3-0
7.1%
3-1
12.5%
3-2
15.3%

Harvard wins

3-0
20.1%
3-1
25.0%
3-2
20.1%
PRINCE break %
40.8% vs this opp
HARV break %
43.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sofia RossiAttack error+12.6%

    Attack error by Sofia Rossi

    Set 4 · PRINCE 25-23 HARV · PRINCE 87% → 100%

  2. 02
    Ashtyn SimsKill+12.3%

    Kill by Ashtyn Sims (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 24-22 HARV · PRINCE 80% → 93%

  3. 03

    Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 22-22 HARV · HARV 19% → 29%

  4. 04
    Kayla NwabuezeAttack error+9.3%

    Attack error by Kayla Nwabueze

    Set 4 · PRINCE 23-22 HARV · PRINCE 71% → 80%

  5. 05
    Catlin ShaoKill+7.3%

    Kill by Catlin Shao (set by Sofia Rossi)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 22-21 HARV · HARV 12% → 19%

  6. 06
    Ryleigh PattersonAttack error+7.1%

    Attack error by Ryleigh Patterson

    Set 4 · PRINCE 19-17 HARV · PRINCE 75% → 82%

  7. 07
    PrincetonAce+6.9%

    Princeton ace on Sofia Rossi

    Set 4 · PRINCE 21-18 HARV · PRINCE 83% → 90%

  8. 08
    PrincetonAce+5.8%

    Princeton ace on Sofia Rossi

    Set 4 · PRINCE 15-14 HARV · PRINCE 67% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412527.25903610052.517.5
49829.0340111004212
410329.24100000111.511.5
47432.0941231300009
4619.55632201100008
4318.250100001225
4012-.500010910001
4000–200910000
4000–6011710000
Team totals4723136.17642911613212894
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413738.1583137102115
410528.1791141502112
48226.23100020031.59.5
45615-.06700010254.59.5
42210.000103100213
4103.33316001300001
48018.444000100008
4315.4001902800003
4000–112100001
4001.0005001520000
4000–000310000
Team totals5023144.18846314539214987

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Princeton vs Harvard

Season series · Princeton leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 PRINCE · HARV 4

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 6 PRINCEHARV 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 PRINCEHARV 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 PRINCEHARV 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 PRINCEHARV 4

Bars above the line = Harvard leads, below = Princeton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Princeton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
23%3/13
2
65%11/17
39%7/18
3
53%10/19
41%7/17
4
64%9/14
36%5/14
5
89%8/9
56%10/18
6
67%8/12
38%5/13
All
65%57/88
40%37/93

Harvard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
47%8/17
2
58%11/19
39%7/18
3
69%9/13
27%4/15
4
45%9/20
47%8/17
5
73%8/11
25%3/12
6
53%8/15
11%1/9
All
60%56/93
35%31/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#PRINCE-HARVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+2.2
21-1HARVPRINCEAttack errSofia Rossi+1.7
32-1PRINCEPRINCEAcePrincetonaced Yvette Easton+2.4
42-2PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+1.7
53-2HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Sydney Draper+1.9
64-2PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Bold+2.5
74-3PRINCEHARV×3BlockedErin McNairblk Ryleigh Patterson, Ali Farquhar+1.8
84-4HARVHARV×3Attack errAva Harrington+2.5
94-5HARVHARV×3AceAlicia Guoaced Sydney Bold+2.4
105-5HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.9
115-6PRINCEHARV×3Serve errPrinceton+1.9
125-7HARVHARV×3Attack errShelby Burriss+2.4
135-8HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+2.2
146-8HARVPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.6
156-9PRINCEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+1.7
166-10HARVHARVAttack errSydney Draper+2.0
177-10HARVPRINCEServe errKayla Nwabueze+1.4
187-11PRINCEHARVAttack errAshtyn Sims+1.5
198-11HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+1.4
208-12PRINCEHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.6
218-13HARVHARV×3Attack errAva Harrington+1.7
228-14HARVHARV×3KillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+1.4
239-14HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+0.8
249-15PRINCEHARV×3KillSophia Weiset Yvette Easton+1.0
259-16HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabueze+1.0
269-17HARVHARV×3AceSofia Rossiaced Natalie Surges+0.6
2710-17HARVPRINCEServe errSofia Rossi+0.3
2810-18PRINCEHARVAttack errShelby Burriss+0.4
2910-19HARVHARVBlockedAva Harringtonblk Kayla Nwabueze, Riley Resmer+0.3
3011-19HARVPRINCEBlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Ava Harrington, Shelby Burriss+0.1
3111-20PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+0.2
3212-20HARVPRINCE×6KillSydney Draperset Sydney Bold+0.1
3313-20PRINCEPRINCE×6AcePrincetonaced Kayla Nwabueze+0.2
3414-20PRINCEPRINCE×6KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+0.4
3515-20PRINCEPRINCE×6KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+0.7
3616-20PRINCEPRINCE×6KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.1
3717-20PRINCEPRINCE×6AcePrincetonaced Yvette Easton+1.7
3817-21PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+1.8
3918-21HARVPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.2
4018-22PRINCEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.8
4119-22HARVPRINCEServe errRiley Resmer+1.1
4219-23PRINCEHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.7
4319-24HARVHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+1.1
4419-25HARVHARV×3KillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+0.3
Set 2
11-0PRINCEPRINCEKillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+2.0
21-1PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+1.5
32-1HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Sydney Draper+1.6
42-2PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+1.5
53-2HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Kayla Nwabueze+1.6
63-3PRINCEHARVKillAli Farquharset Kayla Nwabueze+1.5
74-3HARVPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.6
85-3PRINCEPRINCEBlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Ashtyn Sims+2.2
95-4PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+1.6
106-4HARVPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.7
116-5PRINCEHARVAttack errAshtyn Sims+1.6
127-5HARVPRINCE×5KillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+1.8
138-5PRINCEPRINCE×5AcePrincetonaced Sofia Rossi+2.3
149-5PRINCEPRINCE×5BlockedRyleigh Pattersonblk Ashley Duckworth, Ava Harrington+2.2
1510-5PRINCEPRINCE×5AcePrincetonaced Sofia Rossi+2.1
1611-5PRINCEPRINCE×5KillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+1.8
1711-6PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.1
1811-7HARVHARVBlockedAshtyn Simsblk Ryleigh Patterson, Sofia Rossi+1.7
1912-7HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sophia Wei+1.6
2012-8PRINCEHARVAttack errNatalie Surges+1.3
2112-9HARVHARVBlockedErin McNairblk Ryleigh Patterson, Ali Farquhar+2.0
2213-9HARVPRINCEServe errSofia Rossi+1.9
2314-9PRINCEPRINCEAttack errRyleigh Patterson+2.2
2414-10PRINCEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+1.3
2515-10HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.6
2616-10PRINCEPRINCEAcePrincetonaced Jordan Shelor+1.8
2716-11PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+0.9
2817-11HARVPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.3
2917-12PRINCEHARVKillCatlin Shaoset Kayla Nwabueze+0.9
3018-12HARVPRINCE×3Serve errKayla Nwabueze+1.3
3119-12PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errKayla Nwabueze+1.2
3220-12PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errCatlin Shao+0.7
3320-13PRINCEHARVAttack errShelby Burriss+0.3
3421-13HARVPRINCEServe errRiley Resmer+0.4
3521-14PRINCEHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+0.2
3621-15HARVHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+0.4
3721-16HARVHARV×3BlockedAva Harringtonblk Ryleigh Patterson+0.7
3822-16HARVPRINCEBlockedSofia Rossiblk Ashley Duckworth+0.9
3922-17PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+0.4
4023-17HARVPRINCEServe errSofia Rossi+0.8
4124-17PRINCEPRINCEAttack errRyleigh Patterson+0.4
4224-18PRINCEHARVKillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton·
4325-18HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+0.1
Set 3
11-0HARVPRINCEBlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Ashley Duckworth, Ava Harrington+2.4
22-0PRINCEPRINCEBlockedRyleigh Pattersonblk Shelby Burriss, Ava Harrington+3.3
32-1PRINCEHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.4
42-2HARVHARV×3Attack errErin McNair+3.2
52-3HARVHARV×3Attack errShelby Burriss+3.2
63-3HARVPRINCE×3Serve errKayla Nwabueze+2.5
74-3PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errSofia Rossi+3.4
85-3PRINCEPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+3.6
95-4PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+2.5
106-4HARVPRINCEServe errAlicia Guo+2.8
117-4PRINCEPRINCEKillSydney Draperset Olivia Foye+3.6
127-5PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+2.5
137-6HARVHARVAttack errShelby Burriss+3.5
148-6HARVPRINCEAttack errRiley Resmer+2.9
159-6PRINCEPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+3.8
169-7PRINCEHARVKillCatlin Shaoset Kayla Nwabueze+2.6
1710-7HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+3.0
1810-8PRINCEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.6
1911-8HARVPRINCEServe errRiley Resmer+3.1
2012-8PRINCEPRINCEKillErin McNairset Sydney Draper+3.8
2112-9PRINCEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.4
2213-9HARVPRINCEBad setAli Farquhar+2.9
2313-10PRINCEHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+2.4
2413-11HARVHARVBlockedErin McNairblk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson+3.8
2514-11HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+3.4
2615-11PRINCEPRINCEAcePrincetonaced Sofia Rossi+4.1
2715-12PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+2.5
2816-12HARVPRINCEAttack errSofia Rossi+3.2
2916-13PRINCEHARVKillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+2.5
3017-13HARVPRINCEServe errCatlin Shao+3.2
3118-13PRINCEPRINCEKillAshley Duckworth+3.5
3218-14PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Riley Resmer+1.8
3319-14HARVPRINCEKillSydney Draperset Erin McNair+2.6
3419-15PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Jordan Shelor+1.7
3519-16HARVHARVAttack errAshley Duckworth+3.2
3620-16HARVPRINCEAttack errRyleigh Patterson+3.4
3721-16PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+3.3
3821-17PRINCEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.4
3922-17HARVPRINCEAttack errAli Farquhar+2.3
4023-17PRINCEPRINCEBlockedAli Farquharblk Shelby Burriss, Ava Harrington+1.6
4123-18PRINCEHARVBlockedShelby Burrissblk Ryleigh Patterson+0.4
4223-19HARVHARVBlockedAva Harringtonblk Ryleigh Patterson, Sofia Rossi+1.1
4324-19HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.6
4424-20PRINCEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+0.4
4524-21HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Alicia Guo+1.2
4625-21HARVPRINCEKillSydney Draperset Olivia Foye+2.1
Set 4
10-1PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+2.7
21-1HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Sydney Bold+2.7
31-2PRINCEHARVKillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+2.7
42-2HARVPRINCEServe errAlicia Guo+2.8
52-3PRINCEHARVBlockedShelby Burrissblk Kayla Nwabueze, Riley Resmer+2.8
63-3HARVPRINCEKillSydney Draperset Sydney Bold+2.9
74-3PRINCEPRINCEAttack errKayla Nwabueze+4.0
84-4PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+2.9
94-5HARVHARVAceKayla Nwabuezeaced Olivia Foye+3.9
105-5HARVPRINCEKillSydney Draperset Sydney Bold+3.0
115-6PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+3.0
126-6HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+3.1
137-6PRINCEPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Bold+4.4
147-7PRINCEHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+3.2
158-7HARVPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+3.4
168-8PRINCEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+3.3
179-8HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Ashley Duckworth+3.5
1810-8PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+4.8
1910-9PRINCEHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+3.3
2011-9HARVPRINCEKillErin McNairset Sydney Draper+3.7
2111-10PRINCEHARV×3Serve errPrinceton+3.4
2211-11HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Yvette Easton+4.8
2311-12HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+4.9
2412-12HARVPRINCEServe errCatlin Shao+3.7
2513-12PRINCEPRINCEBlockedRiley Resmerblk Ashtyn Sims, Shelby Burriss+5.3
2613-13PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+3.9
2713-14HARVHARVAttack errShelby Burriss+5.3
2814-14HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+4.0
2915-14PRINCEPRINCEAcePrincetonaced Sofia Rossi+5.8
3015-15PRINCEHARVServe errPrinceton+4.3
3116-15HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+4.7
3216-16PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+4.5
3317-16HARVPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+4.9
3417-17PRINCEHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+4.7
3518-17HARVPRINCEServe errSofia Rossi+5.3
3619-17PRINCEPRINCEAttack errRyleigh Patterson+7.1
3719-18PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+4.7
3820-18HARVPRINCE×3KillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+5.8
3921-18PRINCEPRINCE×3AcePrincetonaced Sofia Rossi+6.9
4022-18PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errKayla Nwabueze+5.3
4122-19PRINCEHARV×4Serve errPrinceton+2.2
4222-20HARVHARV×4KillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+4.8
4322-21HARVHARV×4KillCatlin Shaoset Sofia Rossi+7.3
4422-22HARVHARV×4KillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+9.9
4523-22HARVPRINCEAttack errKayla Nwabueze+9.3
4624-22PRINCEPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+12.3
4724-23PRINCEHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+5.2
4825-23HARVPRINCEAttack errSofia Rossi+12.6

Score shown after each rally, Princeton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).