FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeASUN

Jacksonville def. Southern U. 3–0

(25-14, 25-14, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SOUTHR	14	14	17	0
JVILLE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

JVILLE above 50 · SOUTHR below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Southern U. — set 2, SOUTHR 2-0 JVILLE. Jaylyn Tuiasosopo stuffed by Paulina Agudelo Marin & Alayah Wilson. JVILLE win probability 100% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SOUTHR 0.8%99.2% JVILLE

Southern U. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

Jacksonville wins

3-0

76.4%

3-1

19.7%

3-2

3.2%

SOUTHR break %: 35.6% vs this opp
JVILLE break %: 54.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jaylyn TuiasosopoAttack error+0.1%
Jaylyn Tuiasosopo stuffed by Paulina Agudelo Marin & Alayah Wilson
Set 2 · SOUTHR 2-0 JVILLE · SOUTHR 0% → 1%
02
JVILLE serverAce+0.1%
Jacksonville ace on Team
Set 1 · SOUTHR 0-2 JVILLE · JVILLE 99% → 99%
03
Paulina Agudelo MarinAttack error+0.1%
Paulina Agudelo Marin stuffed by Addison Krieger & Claire Mrukowski
Set 2 · SOUTHR 2-2 JVILLE · JVILLE 100% → 100%
04
Mariah MottAttack error+0.1%
Mariah Mott stuffed by Addison Krieger & Claire Mrukowski
Set 1 · SOUTHR 0-1 JVILLE · JVILLE 99% → 99%
05
Jaylyn TuiasosopoKill+0.1%
Kill by Jaylyn Tuiasosopo (set by Emersen Strain)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 2-1 JVILLE · JVILLE 99% → 100%
06
Paulina Agudelo MarinKill+0.1%
Kill by Paulina Agudelo Marin (set by Maleah Faust)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 1-0 JVILLE · SOUTHR 0% → 0%
07
Abbie TuyoKill+0.1%
Kill by Abbie Tuyo (set by Jaylyn Tuiasosopo)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 2-3 JVILLE · JVILLE 100% → 100%
08
Claire MrukowskiKill+0.1%
Kill by Claire Mrukowski (set by Emersen Strain)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 0-3 JVILLE · JVILLE 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern U.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Sereniti JohnsonOH	3	8	8	27	.000	1	0	0	9	1	0	0	8
18Paulina Agudelo MarinMB	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Mariah MottOH	3	4	4	14	.000	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	4
4Braelynn ReeseOH	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Penina VitoS	2	1	0	2	.500	10	0	0	4	0	1	0.5	1.5
21Alyssa WilliamsOH	2	0	3	9	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Reagan RobinsonL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
19Najah HarrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0
14Alayah WilsonOH	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Maleah FaustS	2	1	0	2	.500	6	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
12Nyla HoultOH	2	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Elizabeth LualemagaOH	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0
20Logan HartMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ayana JohnsonDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		23	24	87	-.011	20	1	3	28	8	4	2	45

Jacksonvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Abbie TuyoOH	3	10	0	16	.625	0	1	2	7	0	5	2.5	13.5
5Jaylyn TuiasosopoOH	3	7	3	17	.235	2	5	3	2	1	0	0	12
11Haley YountMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	1	2	0	7	3.5	9.5
8Claire MrukowskiOH	3	7	3	15	.267	2	0	0	1	0	4	2	9
6Addison KriegerMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
4Emersen StrainS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
13Kathryn AdlerOH	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
10Jade Cuya CobosS	3	1	0	1	1.000	9	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
1Elle KennedyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
22Ana NastaseS	2	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	2	0	0	0	1
20Selah SimienL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	11	79	.342	34	8	8	31	1	24	12	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 SOUTHR · JVILLE 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRJVILLE 6

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 SOUTHRJVILLE 6

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRJVILLE 8

Bars above the line = Jacksonville leads, below = Southern U. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern U.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%6/18	38%3/8
2	38%6/16	25%2/8
3	43%6/14	25%2/8
4	67%6/9	0%0/6
5	45%5/11	40%4/10
6	60%3/5	29%2/7
All	44%32/73	28%13/47

Jacksonville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	33%2/6
2	100%6/6	73%16/22
3	75%6/8	57%8/14
4	86%6/7	50%6/12
5	63%5/8	55%6/11
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	72%34/47	56%41/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

120 rallies

Rally log

#	SOUTHR-JVILLE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SOUTHR	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Addison Krieger, Claire Mrukowski	+0.1
2	0-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Team	+0.1
3	0-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.1
4	0-4	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Mariah Mott	+0.1
5	1-4	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
6	1-5	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Claire Mrukowski	+0.0
7	1-6	JVILLE	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Haley Yount	+0.0
8	2-6	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
9	2-7	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Attack err	Alyssa Williams		+0.0
10	3-7	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
11	3-8	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
12	3-9	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
13	4-9	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Attack err	Kathryn Adler		+0.0
14	5-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Haley Yount		+0.0
15	5-10	SOUTHR	JVILLE×3	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
16	5-11	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.0
17	5-12	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
18	6-12	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Penina Vito	set Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
19	6-13	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
20	6-14	JVILLE	JVILLE	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
21	7-14	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Attack err	Claire Mrukowski		+0.0
22	7-15	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
23	8-15	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Penina Vito	+0.0
24	8-16	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Claire Mrukowski	+0.0
25	9-16	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
26	9-17	SOUTHR	JVILLE×6	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
27	9-18	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Bad set	Penina Vito		+0.0
28	9-19	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Attack err	Alyssa Williams	blk Abbie Tuyo, Haley Yount	+0.0
29	9-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
30	9-21	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Haley Yount, Kathryn Adler	+0.0
31	9-22	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
32	10-22	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
33	10-23	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
34	11-23	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Attack err	Haley Yount		+0.0
35	11-24	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
36	12-24	JVILLE	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Reagan Robinson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
37	13-24	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	blk Braelynn Reese, Penina Vito	+0.0
38	14-24	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Reagan Robinson	+0.0
39	14-25	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Maleah Faust	+0.1
2	2-0	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	blk Paulina Agudelo Marin, Alayah Wilson	+0.1
3	2-1	SOUTHR	JVILLE×6	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.1
4	2-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin	blk Addison Krieger, Claire Mrukowski	+0.1
5	2-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	+0.1
6	2-4	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.1
7	2-5	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Kill	Addison Krieger		+0.0
8	2-6	JVILLE	JVILLE×6	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Team	+0.0
9	3-6	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
10	3-7	SOUTHR	JVILLE×4	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
11	3-8	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Alayah Wilson	blk Haley Yount, Abbie Tuyo	+0.0
12	3-9	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Haley Yount, Claire Mrukowski	+0.0
13	3-10	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Alayah Wilson	blk Haley Yount, Abbie Tuyo	+0.0
14	4-10	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Attack err	Claire Mrukowski		+0.0
15	4-11	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
16	5-11	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Mariah Mott	+0.0
17	6-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Bad set	Jade Cuya Cobos		+0.0
18	6-12	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
19	7-12	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
20	7-13	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
21	7-14	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.0
22	8-14	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
23	9-14	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Kathryn Adler		+0.0
24	9-15	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
25	9-16	JVILLE	JVILLE	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
26	10-16	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
27	11-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
28	11-17	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
29	12-17	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Attack err	Claire Mrukowski		+0.0
30	12-18	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
31	13-18	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
32	13-19	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
33	13-20	JVILLE	JVILLE	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Najah Harris	+0.0
34	14-20	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
35	14-21	SOUTHR	JVILLE×5	Kill	Haley Yount	set Ana Nastase	+0.0
36	14-22	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
37	14-23	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
38	14-24	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Najah Harris	+0.0
39	14-25	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Addison Krieger		+0.0
2	1-1	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
3	1-2	JVILLE	JVILLE	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Elizabeth Lualemaga	+0.0
4	2-2	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
5	2-3	SOUTHR	JVILLE×5	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
6	2-4	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
7	2-5	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
8	2-6	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Alyssa Williams	blk Haley Yount, Abbie Tuyo	+0.0
9	2-7	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
10	3-7	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Penina Vito	+0.0
11	3-8	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
12	4-8	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
13	4-9	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
14	4-10	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
15	5-10	JVILLE	SOUTHR×3	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
16	6-10	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
17	7-10	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Bad set	Jade Cuya Cobos		+0.0
18	7-11	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
19	8-11	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.0
20	8-12	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Jade Cuya Cobos	set Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	+0.0
21	9-12	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
22	10-12	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo		+0.0
23	10-13	SOUTHR	JVILLE×8	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Elle Kennedy	+0.0
24	10-14	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
25	10-15	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
26	10-16	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Elizabeth Lualemaga	blk Addison Krieger, Abbie Tuyo	+0.0
27	10-17	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Elizabeth Lualemaga	+0.0
28	10-18	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Claire Mrukowski, Addison Krieger	+0.0
29	10-19	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
30	10-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Elle Kennedy	+0.0
31	11-20	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
32	11-21	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
33	12-21	JVILLE	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Reagan Robinson	+0.0
34	13-21	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
35	14-21	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	+0.0
36	14-22	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
37	15-22	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
38	15-23	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Ana Nastase	+0.0
39	16-23	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
40	16-24	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Attack err	Nyla Hoult	blk Haley Yount, Kathryn Adler	+0.0
41	17-24	JVILLE	SOUTHR	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
42	17-25	SOUTHR	JVILLE	Attack err	Nyla Hoult	blk Addison Krieger, Kathryn Adler	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern U. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.