Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026 · Neutral site

Nicholls def. Southern U. 3–2

Nicholls beat Southern U. 3-2 (21-25, 25-19, 25-19, 21-25, 15-10) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026 at a neutral site. Kera Arrington led Nicholls with 15 kills; Southern U.'s Mariah Mott had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set12345Sets
SOUTHR25191925102
NICHST21252521153

Win probability

Nicholls above 50 · Southern U. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+11.9% NICHSTrally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 11.9% to Nicholls — set 5, SOUTHR 9-11 NICHST. Reagan Robinson stuffed by Harper Holden & Amelie Shalfoon. NICHST win probability 68% → 80%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SOUTHR 28.0%72.0% NICHST

Southern U. wins

3-0
5.2%
3-1
9.7%
3-2
13.1%

Nicholls wins

3-0
24.7%
3-1
27.6%
3-2
19.7%
SOUTHR break %
43.3% vs this opp
NICHST break %
47.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Reagan Robinson stuffed by Harper Holden & Amelie Shalfoon

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 9-11 NICHST · NICHST 68% → 80%

  2. 02

    Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie stuffed by Sereniti Johnson & Norielle Battle

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 8-7 NICHST · SOUTHR 41% → 53%

  3. 03

    Norielle Battle stuffed by Harper Holden & Madison Smith

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 8-9 NICHST · NICHST 56% → 68%

  4. 04
    Madison SmithKill+10.5%

    Kill by Madison Smith (set by Isabella Padilla)

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 9-10 NICHST · NICHST 58% → 68%

  5. 05
    Madison SmithAttack error+10.3%

    Attack error by Madison Smith

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 7-7 NICHST · SOUTHR 31% → 41%

  6. 06
    Harper HoldenBad set+10.0%

    Bad set by Harper Holden

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 9-9 NICHST · SOUTHR 32% → 42%

  7. 07
    Norielle BattleAttack error+9.6%

    Attack error by Norielle Battle

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 9-12 NICHST · NICHST 80% → 90%

  8. 08
    Southern U.Service error+9.4%

    Southern U. service error

    Set 5 · SOUTHR 8-8 NICHST · NICHST 47% → 56%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5171350.080102100031.518.5
514644.182310122010.515.5
58119.3682001300008
5206.3334012110010.53.5
42415-.133000100424
4138-.25001010010.52.5
5001.0004122720001
47312.333000000007
4138-.250002001223
1117.000000000212
11011.000000100001
1001.000000400000
1000–000100000
Team totals5434172.1165048814114898
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515841.17100011010.515.5
510026.38510210052.512.5
55113.30800000031.56.5
52113.0773412120010.53.5
5000–100200000
2135-.400000310001
511743.093232112031.515.5
512939.07700110000012
5203.66700000031.53.5
5000–700600000
5000–000600000
5000–9011900000
4000–000000000
Team totals5829183.15854487140168107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SOUTHR · NICHST 6

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 SOUTHRNICHST 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 SOUTHRNICHST 5

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRNICHST 6

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 4 SOUTHRNICHST 3

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 3 SOUTHRNICHST 5

Bars above the line = Nicholls leads, below = Southern U. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southern U.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%8/19
56%9/16
2
44%7/16
46%6/13
3
58%7/12
59%10/17
4
70%7/10
36%4/11
5
50%7/14
46%6/13
6
55%6/11
22%2/9
All
51%42/82
47%37/79

Nicholls

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
63%12/19
2
50%7/14
42%5/12
3
54%7/13
61%11/18
4
41%7/17
13%1/8
5
100%7/7
36%4/11
6
47%7/15
50%7/14
All
53%42/79
49%40/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#SOUTHR-NICHSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+1.6
20-2NICHSTNICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+1.8
31-2NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Sereniti Johnson+1.5
41-3SOUTHRNICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+1.5
52-3NICHSTSOUTHR×4KillNorielle Battleset Penina Vito+1.6
63-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.1
74-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+2.2
85-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Kera Arrington+2.3
95-4SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+1.8
106-4NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.0
117-4SOUTHRSOUTHRBlockedMckenzie Mitchellblk Penina Vito, Paulina Agudelo Marin+2.4
127-5SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+1.8
138-5NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.1
148-6SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+1.9
158-7NICHSTNICHSTKillMckenzie Mitchellset Natalia Navarro+2.4
169-7NICHSTSOUTHR×3Attack errMckenzie Mitchell+2.2
1710-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errMckenzie Mitchell+2.6
1811-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Mckenzie Mitchell+2.6
1911-8SOUTHRNICHST×4KillIsabella Padillaset Isabella Padilla+1.8
2011-9NICHSTNICHST×4AceNichollsaced Sereniti Johnson+2.4
2111-10NICHSTNICHST×4Attack errMariah Mott+2.6
2211-11NICHSTNICHST×4KillHarper Holden+2.7
2312-11NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errMadison Smith+2.4
2412-12SOUTHRNICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Jenna Cicherski+2.3
2513-12NICHSTSOUTHR×4KillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+2.5
2614-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4BlockedKera Arringtonblk Mariah Mott, Norielle Battle+3.1
2715-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errKera Arrington+3.1
2816-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.9
2916-13SOUTHRNICHST×4KillKera Arringtonset Natalia Navarro+1.9
3016-14NICHSTNICHST×4Attack errSereniti Johnson+2.8
3116-15NICHSTNICHST×4AceNichollsaced Sereniti Johnson+3.1
3216-16NICHSTNICHST×4Bad setPenina Vito+3.3
3317-16NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+3.1
3418-16SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errKera Arrington+3.8
3518-17SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+2.8
3619-17NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+3.4
3720-17SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+3.9
3820-18SOUTHRNICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Isabella Padilla+2.5
3920-19NICHSTNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Madison Smith+3.8
4021-19NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+4.1
4121-20SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+3.3
4222-20NICHSTSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+4.5
4322-21SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+3.5
4423-21NICHSTSOUTHR×3Serve errNicholls+5.1
4524-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Bad setJenna Cicherski+4.9
4625-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Madison Smith+2.3
Set 2
10-1NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errAlyssa Williams+2.5
20-2NICHSTNICHST×5KillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+2.4
30-3NICHSTNICHST×5AceNichollsaced Najah Harris+2.2
40-4NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errMariah Mott+2.0
50-5NICHSTNICHST×5KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+1.7
61-5NICHSTSOUTHR×3Serve errNicholls+1.3
72-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+1.9
83-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×3BlockedKera Arringtonblk Alyssa Williams, Braelynn Reese+2.2
93-6SOUTHRNICHSTKillIsabella Padillaset Madison Smith+1.9
104-6NICHSTSOUTHRServe errNicholls+1.9
114-7SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Natalia Navarro+2.0
125-7NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.0
135-8SOUTHRNICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Isabella Padilla+2.0
146-8NICHSTSOUTHRKillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Penina Vito+2.0
157-8SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errMadison Smith+2.7
167-9SOUTHRNICHST×3KillMadison Smithset Natalia Navarro+2.4
177-10NICHSTNICHST×3BlockedPaulina Agudelo Marinblk Harper Holden, Madison Smith+2.6
187-11NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errMariah Mott+2.3
198-11NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+1.8
208-12SOUTHRNICHSTAttack errMariah Mott+1.9
219-12NICHSTSOUTHR×4Serve errNicholls+1.8
2210-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillAlyssa Williamsset Penina Vito+2.6
2311-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4BlockedMadison Smithblk Braelynn Reese+3.1
2412-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4BlockedMadison Smithblk Alyssa Williams, Braelynn Reese+3.5
2512-13SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+3.0
2612-14NICHSTNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Jenna Cicherski+3.4
2713-14NICHSTSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+2.8
2813-15SOUTHRNICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Natalia Navarro+3.0
2913-16NICHSTNICHSTBlockedSereniti Johnsonblk Amelie Shalfoon, Maya Schirmer+3.2
3014-16NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errKera Arrington+2.4
3114-17SOUTHRNICHST×4KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+2.7
3214-18NICHSTNICHST×4KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+2.7
3314-19NICHSTNICHST×4KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+2.0
3414-20NICHSTNICHST×4KillKera Arringtonset Natalia Navarro+1.4
3515-20NICHSTSOUTHRServe errNicholls+0.7
3615-21SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+1.0
3716-21NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+0.6
3817-21SOUTHRSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Sereniti Johnson+1.2
3917-22SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.5
4018-22NICHSTSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+0.9
4118-23SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.4
4218-24NICHSTNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+0.7
4319-24NICHSTSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Najah Harris+0.1
4419-25SOUTHRNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+0.3
Set 3
11-0SOUTHRSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+2.9
21-1SOUTHRNICHSTAttack errMariah Mott+2.4
32-1NICHSTSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+2.5
43-1SOUTHRSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+3.2
53-2SOUTHRNICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.5
63-3NICHSTNICHSTAttack errNorielle Battle+3.0
74-3NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.7
84-4SOUTHRNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.5
94-5NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errPaulina Agudelo Marin+3.0
104-6NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errMariah Mott+2.8
115-6NICHSTSOUTHRKillPenina Vitoset Reagan Robinson+2.4
125-7SOUTHRNICHSTBad setPaulina Agudelo Marin+2.4
136-7NICHSTSOUTHR×3Attack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.5
147-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillAlayah Wilsonset Najah Harris+3.3
158-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Madison Smith+3.5
168-8SOUTHRNICHST×6Attack errAlayah Wilson+2.8
178-9NICHSTNICHST×6Attack errMariah Mott+3.4
188-10NICHSTNICHST×6Bad setSereniti Johnson+3.2
198-11NICHSTNICHST×6Attack errAlayah Wilson+2.9
208-12NICHSTNICHST×6Attack errAlayah Wilson+2.5
218-13NICHSTNICHST×6Attack errPaulina Agudelo Marin+2.1
229-13NICHSTSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+1.5
239-14SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.8
2410-14SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.5
2511-14SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errKera Arrington+2.3
2611-15SOUTHRNICHSTAttack errMariah Mott+2.3
2712-15NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+2.0
2813-15SOUTHRSOUTHRKillNorielle Battleset Penina Vito+3.0
2913-16SOUTHRNICHSTAttack errSereniti Johnson+2.9
3013-17NICHSTNICHSTAttack errSereniti Johnson+2.9
3114-17NICHSTSOUTHRServe errNicholls+2.0
3214-18SOUTHRNICHST×5KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.4
3314-19NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errMariah Mott+2.2
3414-20NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errBraelynn Reese+1.5
3514-21NICHSTNICHST×5BlockedSereniti Johnsonblk Isabella Padilla, Maya Schirmer+0.9
3614-22NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errMariah Mott+0.4
3715-22NICHSTSOUTHRKillNyla Houltset Penina Vito+0.1
3815-23SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+0.2
3916-23NICHSTSOUTHR×3Serve errNicholls+0.1
4017-23SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillPenina Vitoset Isabella Padilla+0.2
4118-23SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errMadison Smith+0.4
4218-24SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+0.6
4319-24NICHSTSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+0.1
4419-25SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+0.3
Set 4
11-0NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+2.1
22-0SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errIsabella Padilla+2.6
32-1SOUTHRNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+2.0
43-1NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Sereniti Johnson+2.2
54-1SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.7
64-2SOUTHRNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Ava-Claire Calais+2.1
74-3NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.6
84-4NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.6
95-4NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+2.3
105-5SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+2.2
116-5NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.4
127-5SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.9
137-6SOUTHRNICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+2.3
148-6NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errMadison Smith+2.6
158-7SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+2.3
169-7NICHSTSOUTHR×4KillBraelynn Reeseset Penina Vito+2.6
1710-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillReagan Robinsonset Najah Harris+3.2
1811-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Bad setIsabella Padilla+3.1
1912-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+2.9
2012-8SOUTHRNICHST×3KillHarper Holdenset Jenna Cicherski+1.9
2112-9NICHSTNICHST×3AceNichollsaced Najah Harris+2.7
2212-10NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arrington+3.0
2313-10NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+2.9
2413-11SOUTHRNICHST×3BlockedSereniti Johnsonblk Amelie Shalfoon, Harper Holden+2.5
2513-12NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errMariah Mott+3.3
2613-13NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Jenna Cicherski+3.4
2714-13NICHSTSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Reagan Robinson+3.1
2815-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+3.9
2916-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×4BlockedKera Arringtonblk Norielle Battle, Mariah Mott+3.9
3017-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×4BlockedKera Arringtonblk Norielle Battle, Mariah Mott+3.6
3117-14SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+2.3
3218-14NICHSTSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+3.1
3318-15SOUTHRNICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+2.3
3418-16NICHSTNICHSTBlockedNorielle Battleblk Madison Smith, Maya Schirmer+3.5
3519-16NICHSTSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+3.7
3620-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillReagan Robinson+3.9
3721-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errMaya Schirmer+3.0
3822-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×4KillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+1.9
3922-17SOUTHRNICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Isabella Padilla+0.8
4023-17NICHSTSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Mariah Mott+1.4
4123-18SOUTHRNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+0.5
4223-19NICHSTNICHSTAttack errBraelynn Reese+1.1
4324-19NICHSTSOUTHRAttack errZahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+1.8
4424-20SOUTHRNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Jenna Cicherski+0.5
4524-21NICHSTNICHSTBlockedBraelynn Reeseblk Harper Holden, Kera Arrington+1.2
4625-21NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+1.7
Set 5
11-0SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Najah Harris+8.2
21-1SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+6.6
31-2NICHSTNICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Harper Holden+7.9
42-2NICHSTSOUTHRServe errNicholls+6.8
52-3SOUTHRNICHST×4KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+6.8
62-4NICHSTNICHST×4KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Natalia Navarro+7.8
72-5NICHSTNICHST×4Attack errMariah Mott+7.0
82-6NICHSTNICHST×4KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Natalia Navarro+5.9
93-6NICHSTSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+4.2
104-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+6.5
115-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+8.2
125-7SOUTHRNICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Isabella Padilla+7.4
136-7NICHSTSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+7.2
147-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errMadison Smith+10.3
158-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×3BlockedZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieblk Sereniti Johnson, Norielle Battle+11.7
168-8SOUTHRNICHSTServe errSouthern U.+9.4
178-9NICHSTNICHSTBlockedNorielle Battleblk Harper Holden, Madison Smith+11.6
189-9NICHSTSOUTHRBad setHarper Holden+10.0
199-10SOUTHRNICHST×5KillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+10.5
209-11NICHSTNICHST×5BlockedReagan Robinsonblk Harper Holden, Amelie Shalfoon+11.9
219-12NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errNorielle Battle+9.6
229-13NICHSTNICHST×5Attack errMariah Mott+6.4
239-14NICHSTNICHST×5KillMadison Smithset Natalia Navarro+3.0
2410-14NICHSTSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+0.7
2510-15SOUTHRNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Jenna Cicherski+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Southern U. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).