Southern U. at Alabama

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
SOUTHR	16	11	3	0
ALA	25	25	12	2

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

ALA above 50 · SOUTHR below

Biggest swing: 0.0% to Alabama — set 1, SOUTHR 0-2 ALA. Attack error by Reagan Robinson. ALA win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SOUTHR 0.2%99.8% ALA

Southern U. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.1%

Alabama wins

3-0

86.5%

3-1

12.2%

3-2

1.1%

SOUTHR break %: 33.6% vs this opp
ALA break %: 56.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Reagan RobinsonAttack error+0.0%
Attack error by Reagan Robinson
Set 1 · SOUTHR 0-2 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%
02
Reagan RobinsonKill+0.0%
Kill by Reagan Robinson (set by Penina Vito)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 1-2 ALA · SOUTHR 0% → 0%
03
Kaleigh PalmerKill+0.0%
Kill by Kaleigh Palmer (set by Hannah Parant)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 0-1 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%
04
Kaleigh PalmerKill+0.0%
Kill by Kaleigh Palmer (set by Hannah Parant)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 1-3 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%
05
Kaleigh PalmerKill+0.0%
Kill by Kaleigh Palmer
Set 1 · SOUTHR 1-4 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%
06
Braelynn ReeseKill+0.0%
Kill by Braelynn Reese
Set 1 · SOUTHR 2-4 ALA · SOUTHR 0% → 0%
07
Ashby DanielKill+0.0%
Kill by Ashby Daniel (set by Hannah Parant)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 0-1 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%
08
Lily GervaseKill+0.0%
Kill by Lily Gervase (set by Hannah Parant)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 2-5 ALA · ALA 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern U.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	PTS
5Mariah MottOH	3	5	6	18	-.056	0	0	1	1	1	5
18Paulina Agudelo marinMB	3	3	1	6	.333	1	1	0	0	0	4
11Sereniti JohnsonOH	3	3	2	13	.077	1	0	0	2	3	3
2Reagan RobinsonL/DS	3	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	5	0	1
4Braelynn ReeseOH	3	1	3	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1
10Penina VitoS	3	1	0	2	.500	12	0	0	2	0	1
14Alayah WilsonOH	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	2	3
15Norielle BattleOH	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Maleah FaustS	3	0	1	2	-.500	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Najah HarrisDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	9	1	0
13Elizabeth LualemagaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Nyla HoultOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Zaria NelsonOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ayana JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Logan HartMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Alyssa WilliamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		17	17	61	.000	16	1	1	20	10	30

Alabamahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Kaleigh PalmerOH	3	12	3	18	.500	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
1Hannah ParantS	3	4	0	6	.667	22	7	3	7	0	0	0	0	11
5Laney HennesseeOH	3	7	0	14	.500	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	0	7
9Lily GervaseMB	3	3	0	7	.429	1	0	0	2	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
23Mya AllenOH	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	4
14Addison EngelMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Audrey SimpsonMB	3	2	0	3	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
6Ashby DanielMB	3	2	0	3	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Lindsey BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
22Kyla DunawayOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
18Leilia ToailoaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
2Dionii FragaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
4Josie ImesOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
19Tea SimicOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ava WallisS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Maggie KyriakidesOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Erin ClarkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Maddie SniderOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	4	61	.492	28	10	7	24	1	1	10	6	62

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 SOUTHR · ALA 8

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRALA 4

Set 2

11-25

Longest run 2 SOUTHRALA 8

Set 3*

3-12

Longest run 1 SOUTHRALA 5

Bars above the line = Alabama leads, below = Southern U. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

92 rallies

Rally log

#	SOUTHR-ALA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
2	0-2	ALA	ALA	Attack err	Reagan Robinson		+0.0
3	1-2	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Reagan Robinson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
4	1-3	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
5	1-4	ALA	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
6	2-4	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese		+0.0
7	2-5	SOUTHR	ALA×4	Kill	Lily Gervase	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
8	2-6	ALA	ALA×4	Kill	Hannah Parant		+0.0
9	2-7	ALA	ALA×4	Ace	ALA server	aced TEAM	+0.0
10	2-8	ALA	ALA×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Lily Gervase, Mya Allen	+0.0
11	3-8	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
12	3-9	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Mya Allen	+0.0
13	4-9	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
14	5-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
15	5-10	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
16	6-10	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
17	6-11	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
18	7-11	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
19	7-12	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
20	8-12	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
21	8-13	SOUTHR	ALA×4	Kill	Addison Engel	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
22	8-14	ALA	ALA×4	Attack err	Braelynn Reese		+0.0
23	8-15	ALA	ALA×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
24	8-16	ALA	ALA×4	Kill	Lily Gervase	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
25	9-16	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
26	10-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Mya Allen		+0.0
27	10-17	SOUTHR	ALA×3	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
28	10-18	ALA	ALA×3	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
29	10-19	ALA	ALA×3	Kill	Hannah Parant	set Lily Gervase	+0.0
30	11-19	ALA	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
31	12-19	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
32	13-19	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Paulina Agudelo marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
33	13-20	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
34	14-20	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott		+0.0
35	14-21	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
36	15-21	ALA	SOUTHR	Ball handling	Laney Hennessee		+0.0
37	16-21	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Paulina Agudelo marin	+0.0
38	16-22	SOUTHR	ALA×4	Kill	Hannah Parant	set Lindsey Brown	+0.0
39	16-23	ALA	ALA×4	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
40	16-24	ALA	ALA×4	Ace	ALA server	aced Mariah Mott	+0.0
41	16-25	ALA	ALA×4	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ALA	ALA×4	Kill	Ashby Daniel	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
2	0-2	ALA	ALA×4	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
3	0-3	ALA	ALA×4	Ace	ALA server	aced TEAM	+0.0
4	0-4	ALA	ALA×4	Attack err	Reagan Robinson		+0.0
5	1-4	ALA	SOUTHR	Attack err	Kaleigh Palmer	set Dionii Fraga	+0.0
6	2-4	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
7	2-5	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Laney Hennessee	set Mya Allen	+0.0
8	3-5	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
9	3-6	SOUTHR	ALA×3	Kill	Mya Allen	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
10	3-7	ALA	ALA×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Mya Allen, Lily Gervase	+0.0
11	3-8	ALA	ALA×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
12	4-8	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Penina Vito	set Kaleigh Palmer	+0.0
13	4-9	SOUTHR	ALA	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
14	5-9	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
15	5-10	SOUTHR	ALA×3	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
16	5-11	ALA	ALA×3	Ace	ALA server	aced TEAM	+0.0
17	5-12	ALA	ALA×3	Ace	ALA server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
18	6-12	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
19	7-12	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Kaleigh Palmer	+0.0
20	7-13	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Laney Hennessee		+0.0
21	8-13	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson		+0.0
22	8-14	SOUTHR	ALA×8	Kill	Hannah Parant		+0.0
23	8-15	ALA	ALA×8	Ace	ALA server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
24	8-16	ALA	ALA×8	Kill	Ashby Daniel	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
25	8-17	ALA	ALA×8	Ace	ALA server	aced Najah Harris	+0.0
26	8-18	ALA	ALA×8	Ace	ALA server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
27	8-19	ALA	ALA×8	Ace	ALA server	aced Alayah Wilson	+0.0
28	8-20	ALA	ALA×8	Ace	ALA server	aced Alayah Wilson	+0.0
29	8-21	ALA	ALA×8	Kill	Audrey Simpson	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
30	9-21	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
31	9-22	SOUTHR	ALA	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
32	10-22	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
33	10-23	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kyla Dunaway	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
34	11-23	ALA	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
35	11-24	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Lily Gervase	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
36	11-25	ALA	ALA	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo marin		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
2	1-1	SOUTHR	ALA	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
3	1-2	ALA	ALA	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Kaleigh Palmer, Audrey Simpson	+0.0
4	2-2	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
5	2-3	SOUTHR	ALA×5	Kill	Audrey Simpson	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
6	2-4	ALA	ALA×5	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Mya Allen, Audrey Simpson	+0.0
7	2-5	ALA	ALA×5	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer	set Audrey Simpson	+0.0
8	2-6	ALA	ALA×5	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
9	2-7	ALA	ALA×5	Attack err	Maleah Faust		+0.0
10	3-7	ALA	SOUTHR	Serve err	ALA server		+0.0
11	3-8	SOUTHR	ALA×5	Kill	Mya Allen	set Hannah Parant	+0.0
12	3-9	ALA	ALA×5	Kill	Kaleigh Palmer		+0.0
13	3-10	ALA	ALA×5	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Mya Allen, Lily Gervase	+0.0
14	3-11	ALA	ALA×5	Attack err	Reagan Robinson		+0.0
15	3-12	ALA	ALA×5	Attack err	Norielle Battle	blk Lily Gervase	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern U. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.