FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

3:0

HomeMEAC

USC Upstate def. N.C. Central 3–0

(25-22, 25-22, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SC UPS	25	25	28	3
NC CEN	22	22	26	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NC CEN above 50 · SC UPS below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to USC Upstate — set 1, SC UPS 18-18 NC CEN. Kill by Summer Kohler (set by Tien Murray). NC CEN win probability 23% → 20%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SC UPS 82.9%17.1% NC CEN

USC Upstate wins

3-0

34.7%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

17.3%

N.C. Central wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.6%

3-2

8.9%

SC UPS break %: 48.4% vs this opp
NC CEN break %: 41.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Summer KohlerKill+3.0%
Kill by Summer Kohler (set by Tien Murray)
Set 1 · SC UPS 18-18 NC CEN · SC UPS 77% → 80%
02
Tehillah GarrisonKill+3.0%
Kill by Tehillah Garrison (set by Kamyla Vega David)
Set 1 · SC UPS 19-18 NC CEN · SC UPS 80% → 83%
03
Tehillah GarrisonKill+3.0%
Kill by Tehillah Garrison (set by Sarah O'Connor)
Set 1 · SC UPS 21-19 NC CEN · SC UPS 84% → 87%
04
NC CEN serverService error+3.0%
N.C. Central service error
Set 1 · SC UPS 23-21 NC CEN · SC UPS 85% → 88%
05
Shalyn BellKill+2.9%
Kill by Shalyn Bell (set by Tabitha Newlin)
Set 1 · SC UPS 14-17 NC CEN · NC CEN 24% → 27%
06
Kensley HanelineKill+2.8%
Kill by Kensley Haneline
Set 1 · SC UPS 17-18 NC CEN · SC UPS 75% → 77%
07
Tabitha NewlinKill+2.8%
Kill by Tabitha Newlin (set by Breylan Fairley)
Set 1 · SC UPS 22-21 NC CEN · NC CEN 12% → 15%
08
Tien MurrayAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Tien Murray
Set 1 · SC UPS 14-18 NC CEN · NC CEN 27% → 30%

Official NCAA box

Box score

USC Upstateaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Tien MurrayMB	3	6	2	11	.364	1	6	2	4	0	2	0	2	14
0Summer KohlerOH	3	11	3	35	.229	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	11
10Sophia SpiveyOH	3	7	3	25	.160	0	0	0	6	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
18Kensley HanelineMB	3	7	2	13	.385	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Hannah CampbellL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	1	1	11	1	0	0	0	1
23Sarah O'ConnorS	3	1	0	2	.500	13	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
6Savannah PageOH	3	7	3	18	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	8
19Tehillah GarrisonOH	3	3	7	19	-.211	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
20Kamyla Vega DavidS	3	0	1	3	-.333	17	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
8Sophia OverholtL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	4	0	1	18	3	0	0	0	0
13Emma DeSensiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	22	130	.154	35	7	5	66	9	3	2	4	78

N.C. Centralhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Shalyn BellOH	3	10	5	38	.132	0	3	5	11	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
7Aniah BassOH	3	8	2	23	.261	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	2.5	10.5
22Tabitha NewlinOH	3	4	0	18	.222	1	2	2	11	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Allyson RouseMB	3	2	0	7	.286	0	1	3	3	0	0	2	1	4
6Breylan FairleyS	3	0	0	0	–	20	2	1	8	0	0	0	0	2
2Morgan WingoMB	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	1	3
14Mya SmithOH	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
13Lusiana DamuniS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
4Hailey GibbonsDS	3	0	0	3	.000	3	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	0
1Isabella RodriguezDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
16Talia EmmenOH	2	3	1	11	.182	0	0	2	6	1	1	0	1	4
8Peyton JenkinsMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
17Alex FullerDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	11	118	.195	34	9	16	63	7	5	8	9	70

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 SC UPS · NC CEN 6

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 SC UPSNC CEN 5

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 6 SC UPSNC CEN 6

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 SC UPSNC CEN 4

Bars above the line = N.C. Central leads, below = USC Upstate leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

USC Upstate

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	50%7/14
2	88%7/8	36%4/11
3	64%7/11	50%7/14
4	54%7/13	22%2/9
5	67%6/9	71%15/21
6	33%6/18	25%2/8
All	58%41/71	48%37/77

N.C. Central

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	50%6/12
2	44%7/16	33%4/12
3	78%7/9	22%2/9
4	44%7/16	36%4/11
5	43%6/14	53%8/15
6	63%5/8	50%6/12
All	52%40/77	42%30/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

148 rallies

Rally log

#	SC UPS-NC CEN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SC UPS	NC CEN×5	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.3
2	0-2	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.7
3	0-3	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+1.8
4	0-4	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Sophia Overholt	+1.9
5	0-5	NC CEN	NC CEN×5	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Hannah Campbell	+1.9
6	1-5	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.3
7	2-5	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sophia Overholt	+1.7
8	2-6	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+1.6
9	3-6	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.4
10	3-7	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+1.7
11	4-7	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.4
12	4-8	SC UPS	NC CEN×3	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.7
13	4-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Summer Kohler	+2.0
14	4-10	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Team	+1.9
15	5-10	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.2
16	6-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+1.7
17	6-11	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.7
18	7-11	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.4
19	7-12	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.8
20	8-12	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.4
21	9-12	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.9
22	9-13	SC UPS	NC CEN	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.0
23	10-13	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.6
24	11-13	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Morgan Wingo	blk Tien Murray	+2.1
25	12-13	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+2.3
26	12-14	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Morgan Wingo	set Breylan Fairley	+2.1
27	13-14	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Sarah O'Connor	set Shalyn Bell	+1.9
28	13-15	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+2.3
29	14-15	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+2.0
30	14-16	SC UPS	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Savannah Page	blk Allyson Rouse, Shalyn Bell	+2.4
31	14-17	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Tabitha Newlin	+2.9
32	14-18	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Tien Murray		+2.8
33	15-18	NC CEN	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.6
34	16-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.5
35	17-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Kensley Haneline		+2.8
36	18-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Tien Murray	+3.0
37	19-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Kamyla Vega David	+3.0
38	19-19	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Lusiana Damuni	+2.6
39	20-19	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Sophia Overholt	+2.7
40	21-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Sarah O'Connor	+3.0
41	22-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Mya Smith		+2.3
42	22-20	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Morgan Wingo	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.4
43	22-21	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Breylan Fairley	+2.8
44	23-21	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+3.0
45	24-21	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sophia Overholt	+2.5
46	24-22	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
47	25-22	NC CEN	SC UPS	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+1.8
Set 2
1	1-0	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.8
2	1-1	SC UPS	NC CEN	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.9
3	2-1	NC CEN	SC UPS×5	Kill	Tien Murray	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.8
4	3-1	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.0
5	4-1	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler		+0.9
6	5-1	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Tien Murray		+0.8
7	6-1	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+0.6
8	6-2	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Sophia Overholt		+0.5
9	7-2	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.5
10	7-3	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison	blk Allyson Rouse, Aniah Bass	+0.5
11	8-3	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Shalyn Bell		+0.5
12	9-3	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Hailey Gibbons	+0.5
13	10-3	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Isabella Rodriguez	+0.4
14	10-4	SC UPS	NC CEN×4	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
15	10-5	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
16	10-6	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Isabella Rodriguez	+0.6
17	10-7	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Summer Kohler	+0.8
18	11-7	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.7
19	11-8	SC UPS	NC CEN×6	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.7
20	11-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×6	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison		+1.0
21	11-10	NC CEN	NC CEN×6	Kill	Peyton Jenkins	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.3
22	11-11	NC CEN	NC CEN×6	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison	blk Mya Smith, Peyton Jenkins	+1.5
23	11-12	NC CEN	NC CEN×6	Attack err	Sophia Spivey	blk Peyton Jenkins, Tabitha Newlin	+1.7
24	11-13	NC CEN	NC CEN×6	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Team	+1.8
25	12-13	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.3
26	13-13	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.7
27	13-14	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Tabitha Newlin	set Lusiana Damuni	+1.5
28	14-14	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.4
29	14-15	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Sophia Spivey	blk Aniah Bass	+1.6
30	15-15	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.5
31	16-15	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
32	16-16	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+1.6
33	16-17	NC CEN	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+2.2
34	17-17	NC CEN	SC UPS	Bad set	Shalyn Bell		+1.7
35	17-18	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Kamyla Vega David		+1.9
36	17-19	NC CEN	NC CEN	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Sophia Overholt	+2.6
37	18-19	NC CEN	SC UPS×6	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
38	19-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.4
39	20-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Attack err	Shalyn Bell	blk Savannah Page	+2.5
40	21-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.2
41	22-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Kill	Kensley Haneline		+1.7
42	23-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Tabitha Newlin	+1.1
43	23-20	SC UPS	NC CEN	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.5
44	24-20	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
45	24-21	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Mya Smith	set Lusiana Damuni	+0.3
46	24-22	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Kensley Haneline		+0.8
47	25-22	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.3
Set 3
1	1-0	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Aniah Bass		+0.5
2	1-1	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
3	2-1	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.4
4	2-2	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+0.5
5	3-2	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.4
6	3-3	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.5
7	4-3	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.4
8	5-3	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.5
9	6-3	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.5
10	6-4	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison		+0.4
11	6-5	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison	blk Mya Smith	+0.5
12	7-5	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.4
13	8-5	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Talia Emmen	+0.5
14	9-5	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Bad set	Hailey Gibbons		+0.4
15	9-6	SC UPS	NC CEN	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.3
16	10-6	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.3
17	10-7	SC UPS	NC CEN×3	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.3
18	10-8	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Tehillah Garrison	+0.5
19	10-9	NC CEN	NC CEN×3	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison	blk Aniah Bass	+0.6
20	11-9	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.5
21	11-10	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Breylan Fairley	+0.5
22	12-10	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.5
23	13-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Shalyn Bell	blk Tien Murray	+0.6
24	13-11	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+0.4
25	13-12	NC CEN	NC CEN	Attack err	Sophia Spivey		+0.7
26	14-12	NC CEN	SC UPS×3	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.6
27	15-12	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Talia Emmen		+0.6
28	16-12	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Morgan Wingo		+0.5
29	16-13	SC UPS	NC CEN×4	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.4
30	16-14	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+0.6
31	16-15	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+0.8
32	16-16	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Tien Murray	blk Morgan Wingo	+0.9
33	17-16	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
34	17-17	SC UPS	NC CEN	Attack err	Savannah Page		+0.8
35	18-17	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+0.8
36	18-18	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
37	19-18	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.9
38	19-19	SC UPS	NC CEN×4	Kill	Talia Emmen	set Breylan Fairley	+0.9
39	19-20	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Kensley Haneline	blk Talia Emmen	+1.4
40	19-21	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Ace	NC CEN server	aced Sophia Overholt	+1.5
41	19-22	NC CEN	NC CEN×4	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison		+1.4
42	20-22	NC CEN	SC UPS×4	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sophia Overholt	+0.8
43	21-22	SC UPS	SC UPS×4	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Breylan Fairley	+1.3
44	22-22	SC UPS	SC UPS×4	Attack err	Aniah Bass	blk Sophia Spivey, Kensley Haneline	+1.7
45	23-22	SC UPS	SC UPS×4	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Team	+1.9
46	23-23	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Allyson Rouse	set Breylan Fairley	+1.5
47	24-23	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.9
48	24-24	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.9
49	25-24	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.9
50	25-25	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Aniah Bass	set Hailey Gibbons	+1.9
51	26-25	NC CEN	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.9
52	26-26	SC UPS	NC CEN	Kill	Shalyn Bell	set Breylan Fairley	+1.9
53	27-26	NC CEN	SC UPS	Serve err	NC CEN server		+1.9
54	28-26	SC UPS	SC UPS	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Alex Fuller	+2.0

Score shown after each rally, USC Upstate first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.