Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

1:3

HomeCAA

Elon def. USC Upstate 3–1

(25-21, 25-14, 19-25, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
SC UPS	21	14	25	15	1
ELON	25	25	19	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ELON above 50 · SC UPS below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Elon — set 4, SC UPS 7-11 ELON. Kill by Catherine Rucker (set by Kayla Palmer). ELON win probability 81% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SC UPS 63.1%36.9% ELON

USC Upstate wins

3-0

18.9%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

Elon wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.3%

3-2

15.9%

SC UPS break %: 44.4% vs this opp
ELON break %: 41.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Catherine RuckerKill+4.2%
Kill by Catherine Rucker (set by Kayla Palmer)
Set 4 · SC UPS 7-11 ELON · ELON 81% → 86%
02
Alexandra SchultzAttack error+3.9%
Alexandra Schultz stuffed by Savannah Page & Tien Murray
Set 4 · SC UPS 7-9 ELON · SC UPS 18% → 22%
03
Summer KohlerBad set+3.9%
Bad set by Summer Kohler
Set 4 · SC UPS 1-3 ELON · ELON 71% → 75%
04
Cameron LanierKill+3.9%
Kill by Cameron Lanier (set by April Rice)
Set 4 · SC UPS 1-4 ELON · ELON 75% → 79%
05
ELON serverAce+3.8%
Elon ace on Team
Set 4 · SC UPS 7-12 ELON · ELON 86% → 89%
06
Kensley HanelineAttack error+3.7%
Kensley Haneline stuffed by Cameron Lanier & Catherine Rucker
Set 4 · SC UPS 1-5 ELON · ELON 79% → 83%
07
Alexandra SchultzAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Alexandra Schultz
Set 4 · SC UPS 6-9 ELON · SC UPS 15% → 18%
08
Summer KohlerAttack error+3.5%
Attack error by Summer Kohler
Set 4 · SC UPS 1-6 ELON · ELON 83% → 86%

Official NCAA box

Box score

USC Upstateaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
0Summer KohlerOH	4	17	8	44	.205	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	17
6Savannah PageOH	4	7	2	18	.278	1	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	8.5
18Kensley HanelineMB	4	6	4	24	.083	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
7Tien MurrayMB	4	1	2	5	-.200	0	1	0	2	0	2	1	3
2Hannah CampbellL/DS	4	1	0	2	.500	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	1
23Sarah O'ConnorS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
20Kamyla Vega DavidS	4	2	0	8	.250	27	0	3	5	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Sophia OverholtL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
13Emma DeSensiL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
10Sophia SpiveyOH	3	4	4	12	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Bri BratholOH	3	1	0	6	.167	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2
19Tehillah GarrisonOH	2	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
11Brielle EllisL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	22	133	.158	38	3	10	47	8	10	5	75

Elonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Cameron LanierOH	4	15	5	36	.278	2	3	0	8	1	0	1	0.5	18.5
17Catherine RuckerMB	4	7	1	13	.462	1	2	2	2	0	1	3	2.5	11.5
14Anna SewellOH	4	10	5	35	.143	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	11
5Alexandra SchultzOH	4	6	6	16	.000	0	0	0	4	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
11Caroline BerlekampMB	4	2	0	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	5
12Kayla PalmerS	4	1	0	3	.333	14	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	1
7April RiceS	4	4	0	9	.444	15	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Shannon O'LaughlinL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	2	6	1	0	0	0	3
19Lindsey MurphyL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	1	1	1	8	1	0	0	0	1
4Casey BrowerL/DS	4	0	0	3	.000	4	0	3	10	0	0	0	0	0
8Camryn KanellMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Danielle WallaceL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	17	126	.230	37	8	11	52	3	3	14	10	94

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 SC UPS · ELON 8

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 SC UPSELON 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 SC UPSELON 8

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 5 SC UPSELON 3

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 5 SC UPSELON 7

Bars above the line = Elon leads, below = USC Upstate leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

USC Upstate

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	46%6/13
2	43%9/21	31%4/13
3	40%8/20	44%7/16
4	53%8/15	43%6/14
5	64%7/11	20%2/10
6	50%6/12	30%3/10
All	51%47/93	37%28/76

Elon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%7/14
2	53%9/17	44%7/16
3	82%9/11	44%7/16
4	53%8/15	60%12/20
5	70%7/10	53%8/15
6	60%6/10	42%5/12
All	63%48/76	49%46/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

169 rallies

Rally log

#	SC UPS-ELON	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Summer Kohler	+1.7
2	1-1	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Casey Brower	+1.8
3	1-2	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Cameron Lanier	+2.4
4	1-3	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Catherine Rucker	+2.5
5	2-3	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.8
6	2-4	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.0
7	3-4	ELON	SC UPS	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+1.8
8	3-5	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.0
9	3-6	ELON	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set Lindsey Murphy	+2.6
10	4-6	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
11	4-7	SC UPS	ELON	Bad set	Tehillah Garrison		+2.0
12	5-7	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.8
13	6-7	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+2.6
14	6-8	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set April Rice	+2.2
15	6-9	ELON	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+2.8
16	7-9	ELON	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+1.9
17	8-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz	blk Savannah Page, Kensley Haneline	+2.7
18	9-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+2.9
19	9-10	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+2.3
20	9-11	ELON	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+3.1
21	10-11	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Sarah O'Connor	+2.2
22	10-12	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+2.5
23	10-13	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Savannah Page	blk Caroline Berlekamp, Anna Sewell	+3.1
24	10-14	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Kensley Haneline		+2.9
25	11-14	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.8
26	11-15	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Alexandra Schultz, Caroline Berlekamp	+2.3
27	12-15	ELON	SC UPS	Attack err	Anna Sewell	blk Savannah Page, Tien Murray	+1.8
28	12-16	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	April Rice		+2.3
29	13-16	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Kamyla Vega David		+1.8
30	13-17	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+2.4
31	14-17	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
32	14-18	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+2.4
33	14-19	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+2.5
34	14-20	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+1.8
35	15-20	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+0.8
36	15-21	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison		+1.2
37	16-21	ELON	SC UPS×3	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.6
38	17-21	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Catherine Rucker		+1.4
39	18-21	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler		+2.1
40	18-22	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.5
41	19-22	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.4
42	19-23	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Casey Brower	+2.4
43	20-23	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.1
44	20-24	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.2
45	21-24	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.7
46	21-25	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Cameron Lanier	+1.6
Set 2
1	0-1	SC UPS	ELON	Bad set	Kamyla Vega David		+2.1
2	1-1	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.0
3	1-2	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.2
4	2-2	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.1
5	3-2	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+2.8
6	3-3	SC UPS	ELON×8	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+2.1
7	3-4	ELON	ELON×8	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+3.0
8	3-5	ELON	ELON×8	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+3.0
9	3-6	ELON	ELON×8	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison	blk April Rice, Caroline Berlekamp	+3.0
10	3-7	ELON	ELON×8	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+2.9
11	3-8	ELON	ELON×8	Attack err	Sophia Spivey		+2.7
12	3-9	ELON	ELON×8	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+2.4
13	3-10	ELON	ELON×8	Attack err	Sophia Spivey		+2.0
14	4-10	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.2
15	5-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Cameron Lanier	+1.9
16	5-11	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+1.8
17	6-11	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.4
18	6-12	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+1.8
19	7-12	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.4
20	7-13	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Savannah Page		+1.8
21	7-14	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Catherine Rucker, Alexandra Schultz	+1.9
22	8-14	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.0
23	9-14	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Hannah Campbell	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
24	9-15	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+1.8
25	9-16	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Sophia Spivey	blk Alexandra Schultz	+1.8
26	10-16	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.9
27	10-17	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Sophia Spivey	blk Catherine Rucker, Anna Sewell	+1.3
28	11-17	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.8
29	11-18	SC UPS	ELON×3	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+1.3
30	11-19	ELON	ELON×3	Bad set	Tien Murray		+1.1
31	11-20	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set Casey Brower	+0.6
32	12-20	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.2
33	12-21	SC UPS	ELON	Bad set	Summer Kohler		+0.4
34	12-22	ELON	ELON	Ace	ELON server	aced Summer Kohler	+0.2
35	13-22	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.0
36	13-23	SC UPS	ELON	Bad set	Kamyla Vega David		+0.1
37	13-24	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Kensley Haneline		+0.0
38	14-24	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.0
39	14-25	SC UPS	ELON	Attack err	Tien Murray		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ELON	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Kayla Palmer	+2.1
2	1-1	ELON	SC UPS	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+1.5
3	1-2	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Kayla Palmer	+1.6
4	1-3	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	April Rice	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.2
5	1-4	ELON	ELON×3	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+2.2
6	2-4	ELON	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.5
7	3-4	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.1
8	4-4	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.2
9	4-5	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+1.7
10	4-6	ELON	ELON	Bad set	Hannah Campbell		+2.3
11	5-6	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.7
12	5-7	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	April Rice	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
13	6-7	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.7
14	6-8	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+1.9
15	6-9	ELON	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker		+2.4
16	7-9	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.7
17	8-9	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+2.4
18	8-10	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.0
19	9-10	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.9
20	10-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Anna Sewell	blk Kamyla Vega David, Kensley Haneline	+2.6
21	10-11	SC UPS	ELON×3	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.1
22	10-12	ELON	ELON×3	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+2.8
23	10-13	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Caroline Berlekamp, Alexandra Schultz	+2.7
24	11-13	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.8
25	11-14	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Kayla Palmer	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.2
26	12-14	ELON	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.9
27	13-14	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Savannah Page	+2.8
28	14-14	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+3.0
29	15-14	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+3.1
30	16-14	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+3.0
31	16-15	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+2.1
32	17-15	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.4
33	18-15	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+2.8
34	18-16	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+1.8
35	19-16	ELON	SC UPS×3	Serve err	ELON server		+2.2
36	20-16	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kamyla Vega David		+2.3
37	21-16	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Lindsey Murphy	+1.5
38	21-17	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+0.7
39	21-18	ELON	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+1.5
40	22-18	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+1.7
41	23-18	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Bri Brathol		+1.3
42	23-19	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.4
43	24-19	ELON	SC UPS	Bad set	Kayla Palmer		+0.7
44	25-19	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.2
Set 4
1	0-1	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Casey Brower	+2.8
2	1-1	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.7
3	1-2	SC UPS	ELON×7	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+2.9
4	1-3	ELON	ELON×7	Bad set	Summer Kohler		+3.9
5	1-4	ELON	ELON×7	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+3.9
6	1-5	ELON	ELON×7	Attack err	Kensley Haneline	blk Cameron Lanier, Catherine Rucker	+3.7
7	1-6	ELON	ELON×7	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+3.5
8	1-7	ELON	ELON×7	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+3.1
9	1-8	ELON	ELON×7	Attack err	Kensley Haneline		+2.7
10	2-8	ELON	SC UPS	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+1.6
11	2-9	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	April Rice		+2.1
12	3-9	ELON	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.6
13	4-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.6
14	5-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+3.0
15	6-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+3.5
16	7-9	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz	blk Savannah Page, Tien Murray	+3.9
17	7-10	SC UPS	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+3.4
18	7-11	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+4.2
19	7-12	ELON	ELON×6	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+3.8
20	7-13	ELON	ELON×6	Attack err	Tien Murray	blk Catherine Rucker	+3.2
21	7-14	ELON	ELON×6	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+2.5
22	7-15	ELON	ELON×6	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+1.9
23	8-15	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.9
24	8-16	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+1.4
25	8-17	ELON	ELON	Ace	ELON server	aced Team	+1.2
26	9-17	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.5
27	9-18	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Cameron Lanier	+0.8
28	9-19	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Caroline Berlekamp	+0.6
29	9-20	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Shannon O'Laughlin	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.3
30	10-20	ELON	SC UPS	Serve err	ELON server		+0.1
31	11-20	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+0.2
32	11-21	SC UPS	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+0.3
33	12-21	ELON	SC UPS×3	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.1
34	13-21	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Cameron Lanier	blk Kensley Haneline, Sophia Spivey	+0.3
35	14-21	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Shannon O'Laughlin	+0.5
36	14-22	SC UPS	ELON	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.6
37	15-22	ELON	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.2
38	15-23	SC UPS	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+0.4
39	15-24	ELON	ELON×3	Bad set	Sarah O'Connor		+0.2
40	15-25	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, USC Upstate first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.