FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwaySUMMIT-LEAGUE

0:3

HomePAC-12

Colorado St. def. South Dakota 3–0

(25-17, 25-14, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SO DAK	17	14	19	0
CO ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CO ST above 50 · SO DAK below

Biggest swing: 1.8% to South Dakota — set 1, SO DAK 10-9 CO ST. Attack error by Erin Debiec. CO ST win probability 88% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SO DAK 11.4%88.6% CO ST

South Dakota wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.3%

Colorado St. wins

3-0

42.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.8%

SO DAK break %: 35.9% vs this opp
CO ST break %: 45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Erin DebiecAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Erin Debiec
Set 1 · SO DAK 10-9 CO ST · SO DAK 12% → 14%
02
SO DAK serverAce+1.7%
South Dakota ace on Team
Set 1 · SO DAK 4-1 CO ST · SO DAK 14% → 16%
03
Kekua RichardsKill+1.6%
Kill by Kekua Richards (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · SO DAK 10-11 CO ST · CO ST 87% → 89%
04
SO DAK serverAce+1.5%
South Dakota ace on Team
Set 1 · SO DAK 3-1 CO ST · SO DAK 12% → 14%
05
Ella StowellAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Ella Stowell
Set 1 · SO DAK 8-8 CO ST · SO DAK 10% → 12%
06
Audrey NelsonAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Audrey Nelson
Set 1 · SO DAK 4-3 CO ST · CO ST 85% → 87%
07
Eve WilsonKill+1.5%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · SO DAK 5-5 CO ST · CO ST 87% → 88%
08
Amanda LoschenAttack error+1.4%
Amanda Loschen stuffed by Kekua Richards
Set 1 · SO DAK 10-12 CO ST · CO ST 89% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

South Dakotaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Lauren MedeckOH	3	9	4	34	.147	1	0	0	11	1	1	0.5	9.5
9Gabi ZachariasenOH	3	9	7	26	.077	0	0	2	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Morgan BodeMB	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Ella RogersS	3	2	0	4	.500	26	0	1	5	0	0	0	2
14Amanda LoschenMB	2	2	3	9	-.111	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Audrey NelsonMB	2	2	6	12	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
11Sierra PokharelDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	9	6	0	0	2
16Samantha UntiedtL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
13Cora HokenstadDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
7Chloe KmiecikMB	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Katherine HolthausMB	1	0	2	6	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	22	109	.073	28	2	7	36	8	4	2	50

Colorado St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Sofia ZabjekOH	3	8	2	21	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
4Halle JamesonOH	3	7	1	18	.333	4	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	8
27Eve WilsonMB	3	7	1	10	.600	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	8
26Maria BrunOH	3	3	2	8	.125	1	4	1	6	0	0	0	0	7
23Erin DebiecS	3	4	1	6	.500	25	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	4
33Kekua RichardsMB	2	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Karsyn FetzerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	3	20	0	0	0	0	2
24Hayden GrimesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Ella StowellOH	2	3	1	7	.286	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
3Brooke HolmanOH	2	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Silvie GraetzerMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Jaedyn RileyS	2	1	0	1	1.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Brenna RowlandMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		38	12	86	.302	37	8	6	43	2	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 SO DAK · CO ST 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 SO DAKCO ST 6

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 SO DAKCO ST 5

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 5 SO DAKCO ST 4

Bars above the line = Colorado St. leads, below = South Dakota leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

South Dakota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%7/22	29%2/7
2	64%7/11	13%1/8
3	40%6/15	36%4/11
4	56%5/9	50%6/12
5	57%4/7	38%3/8
6	40%4/10	20%1/5
All	45%33/74	33%17/51

Colorado St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	67%12/18
2	78%7/9	53%8/15
3	46%6/13	40%4/10
4	67%6/9	63%10/16
5	67%4/6	33%2/6
6	80%4/5	56%5/9
All	67%34/51	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	SO DAK-CO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+0.9
2	1-1	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.8
3	2-1	CO ST	SO DAK×3	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+1.0
4	3-1	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+1.5
5	4-1	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Team	+1.7
6	4-2	SO DAK	CO ST	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+1.0
7	4-3	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+1.5
8	5-3	CO ST	SO DAK	Attack err	Maria Brun		+1.1
9	5-4	SO DAK	CO ST×5	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.0
10	5-5	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.5
11	5-6	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Karsyn Fetzer	+1.3
12	5-7	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Halle Jameson	+1.2
13	5-8	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+1.0
14	6-8	CO ST	SO DAK×3	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.7
15	7-8	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+1.2
16	8-8	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+1.5
17	8-9	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.0
18	9-9	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+1.1
19	10-9	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Erin Debiec		+1.8
20	10-10	SO DAK	CO ST×3	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.1
21	10-11	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.6
22	10-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Amanda Loschen	blk Kekua Richards	+1.4
23	11-12	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+1.0
24	11-13	SO DAK	CO ST×6	Attack err	Amanda Loschen		+1.0
25	11-14	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+1.2
26	11-15	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+1.0
27	11-16	CO ST	CO ST×6	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.7
28	11-17	CO ST	CO ST×6	Kill	Kekua Richards		+0.5
29	11-18	CO ST	CO ST×6	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen	blk Kekua Richards, Sofia Zabjek	+0.3
30	12-18	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.1
31	13-18	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen		+0.3
32	13-19	SO DAK	CO ST×4	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.3
33	13-20	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
34	13-21	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Amanda Loschen		+0.1
35	13-22	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.0
36	14-22	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Rogers	+0.0
37	14-23	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
38	15-23	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+0.0
39	16-23	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck		+0.0
40	16-24	SO DAK	CO ST	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.0
41	17-24	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.0
42	17-25	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Jaedyn Riley	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	SO DAK	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Halle Jameson	+0.7
3	0-3	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.6
4	1-3	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.4
5	1-4	SO DAK	CO ST	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.4
6	2-4	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.4
7	2-5	SO DAK	CO ST×3	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
8	2-6	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Halle Jameson	+0.5
9	2-7	CO ST	CO ST×3	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.4
10	3-7	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.3
11	3-8	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Ella Stowell	+0.3
12	4-8	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.3
13	5-8	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.5
14	5-9	SO DAK	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.4
15	5-10	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
16	6-10	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.3
17	6-11	SO DAK	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Halle Jameson	+0.3
18	6-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.3
19	6-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
20	7-13	CO ST	SO DAK	Attack err	Kekua Richards		+0.1
21	8-13	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek	blk Amanda Loschen, Gabi Zachariasen	+0.3
22	8-14	SO DAK	CO ST×4	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.2
23	8-15	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.2
24	8-16	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.1
25	8-17	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
26	9-17	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.0
27	9-18	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
28	9-19	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Erin Debiec	set Maria Brun	+0.0
29	10-19	CO ST	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Silvie Graetzer		+0.0
30	11-19	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Brooke Holman	blk Lauren Medeck, Morgan Bode	+0.0
31	12-19	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.1
32	12-20	SO DAK	CO ST×5	Kill	Brooke Holman	set Jaedyn Riley	+0.1
33	12-21	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+0.0
34	12-22	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+0.0
35	12-23	CO ST	CO ST×5	Kill	Maria Brun	set Jaedyn Riley	+0.0
36	12-24	CO ST	CO ST×5	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+0.0
37	13-24	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.0
38	14-24	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Brooke Holman		+0.0
39	14-25	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Jaedyn Riley	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Katherine Holthaus		+0.4
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.3
3	1-2	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
4	1-3	SO DAK	CO ST	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.2
5	2-3	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
6	2-4	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
7	3-4	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
8	3-5	SO DAK	CO ST	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.2
9	4-5	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.3
10	4-6	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Maria Brun	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
11	4-7	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Sierra Pokharel	+0.3
12	5-7	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
13	5-8	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Maria Brun	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
14	5-9	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.3
15	6-9	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Chloe Kmiecik	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
16	6-10	SO DAK	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.2
17	7-10	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.2
18	7-11	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
19	8-11	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.2
20	8-12	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
21	8-13	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
22	9-13	CO ST	SO DAK×5	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+0.1
23	10-13	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.3
24	11-13	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Eve Wilson		+0.4
25	12-13	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Halle Jameson		+0.5
26	13-13	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Kill	Ella Rogers	set Lauren Medeck	+0.6
27	13-14	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.4
28	14-14	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Ella Rogers	set Samantha Untiedt	+0.4
29	14-15	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
30	14-16	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.6
31	15-16	CO ST	SO DAK	Attack err	Maria Brun		+0.4
32	15-17	SO DAK	CO ST	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.4
33	15-18	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.5
34	16-18	CO ST	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.3
35	17-18	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek		+0.6
36	17-19	SO DAK	CO ST×4	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
37	17-20	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Katherine Holthaus		+0.5
38	17-21	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Lauren Medeck	+0.3
39	17-22	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Team	+0.2
40	18-22	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.1
41	18-23	SO DAK	CO ST	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+0.1
42	19-23	CO ST	SO DAK	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.0
43	19-24	SO DAK	CO ST	Kill	Silvie Graetzer	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
44	19-25	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, South Dakota first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.