Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

LMU (CA) def. San Diego 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: San Diego 83.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 8:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

LMU (CA) won at San Diego 3-2 (13-25, 26-24, 25-17, 22-25, 15-12) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. LMU (CA)'s Maria Tabacuks led with 23 kills, and Gabriella Cascione added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 8

Set12345Sets
LMU13262522153
USD25241725122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

6 aces from Nicole Schuetz, and LMU (CA) needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are LMU (CA)'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had San Diego at 83% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · LMU (CA) 17–23 San Diego

    From here LMU (CA) won 9 of 10 rallies to take the set 26–24.

    LMU (CA) 3% → 23%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · LMU (CA) 7–8 San Diego

    Down 7–8, LMU (CA) scored 4 straight to lead 11–8. The match swung to LMU (CA).

    LMU (CA) 28% → 78%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · LMU (CA) 11–8 San Diego

    San Diego scored 3 straight to erase an 8–11 deficit and tie it at 11. The match swung to San Diego.

    LMU (CA) 78% → 43%

San Diego above 50LMU (CA) belowMax swing 24.0%

LMU (CA)San Diego

Sideout %
LMU (CA) 48.1·San Diego 49.0
Break %
LMU (CA) 51.0·San Diego 51.9
Hitting
LMU (CA) .160·San Diego .240
Longest run
LMU (CA) 7·San Diego 9

Maria Tabacuks
6 of her kills came in the stretches above. 23 K, .214, 26 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

San Diego above 50 · LMU (CA) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+24.0% LMUrally 204 · set 5

Biggest swing: 24.0% to LMU (CA) — set 5, LMU 14-12 USD. Point LMU (CA) (not logged in NCAA feed). USD win probability 39% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LMU 17.5%82.5% USD

LMU (CA) wins

3-0
2.7%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
9.1%

San Diego wins

3-0
34.1%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.5%
LMU break %
39.6% vs this opp
USD break %
46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+24.0%

    Point LMU (CA) (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 5 · LMU 14-12 USD · LMU 61% → 85%

  2. 02
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+16.7%

    Point LMU (CA) (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 5 · LMU 13-12 USD · LMU 44% → 61%

  3. 03
    Kierstyn BartonKill+15.5%

    Kill by Kierstyn Barton (set by Kylie Munday)

    Set 5 · LMU 11-11 USD · USD 42% → 57%

  4. 04
    LMU (CA)Service error+15.5%

    LMU (CA) service error

    Set 5 · LMU 15-12 USD · LMU 85% → 100%

  5. 05
    Ayanna HenryKill+14.5%

    Kill by Ayanna Henry (set by Gabriella Cascione)

    Set 5 · LMU 10-8 USD · LMU 50% → 64%

  6. 06
    San DiegoService error+14.0%

    San Diego service error

    Set 5 · LMU 12-11 USD · LMU 43% → 57%

  7. 07
    LMU (CA)Ace+13.8%

    LMU (CA) ace on Ryann Knuth

    Set 5 · LMU 11-8 USD · LMU 64% → 78%

  8. 08
    Kierstyn BartonAttack error+13.3%

    Attack error by Kierstyn Barton

    Set 5 · LMU 9-8 USD · LMU 36% → 50%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523870.21422210202126
510836.056163110010.516.5
55325.0801231411018
57115.400200200218
57320.20000010010.57.5
5003.00027121100001
54310.10010020111.55.5
5000–6101930001
5000–010300001
5012-.5001301600000
1000–000100000
Team totals5627181.160531311808275.5101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514440.250322171031.517.5
512236.278021136031.515.5
511545.1332149202113
54215.13300020557.511.5
510119.47410110010.510.5
54111.2734031140010.57.5
5000–5021800000
3000–000000000
1001.000000010000
1000–000000000
Team totals5515167.24051811741351512.5103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

LMU (CA) vs San Diego

Season series · LMU (CA) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 LMU · USD 9

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 3 LMUUSD 9

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 6 LMUUSD 4

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 7 LMUUSD 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 LMUUSD 6

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 4 LMUUSD 3

Bars above the line = San Diego leads, below = LMU (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

LMU (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%9/23
67%14/21
2
35%8/23
38%5/13
3
57%8/14
33%4/12
4
44%7/16
50%8/16
5
86%6/7
45%5/11
6
63%5/8
54%7/13
All
47%43/91
50%43/86

San Diego

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
59%10/17
2
57%8/14
68%19/28
3
62%8/13
27%3/11
4
46%6/13
61%11/18
5
40%6/15
40%4/10
6
50%6/12
14%1/7
All
50%43/86
53%48/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

204 rallies

#LMU-USDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1USDUSD×3AceSan Diegoaced Gabriella Cascione+1.4
20-2USDUSD×3KillBayLea Sparksset Kylie Munday+1.3
30-3USDUSD×3KillNemo Beachset Lauren Lynch+1.2
41-3USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.9
51-4LMUUSD×9KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.9
61-5USDUSD×9KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+1.0
71-6USDUSD×9KillRyann Knuthset Lauren Lynch+0.8
81-7USDUSD×9KillRyann Knuthset Delfina Schuh+0.7
91-8USDUSD×9Attack errNicole Schuetz+0.5
101-9USDUSD×9Attack errNicole Schuetz+0.4
111-10USDUSD×9KillBayLea Sparks+0.3
121-11USDUSD×9KillKierstyn Barton+0.2
131-12USDUSD×9Attack errMaria Tabacuks+0.1
142-12USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.1
153-12LMULMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Gabriella Cascione+0.1
163-13LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.1
174-13USDLMUKillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+0.1
185-13LMULMUKillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+0.2
195-14LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.2
205-15USDUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.1
216-15USDLMUKillAnya Santracset Delfina Schuh+0.1
226-16LMUUSDKillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+0.1
237-16USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.1
247-17LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+0.1
258-17USDLMUAttack errKierstyn Barton·
268-18LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Lauren Lynch+0.1
279-18USDLMUKillAleksandra Stojanovicset Kyla Firestone·
289-19LMUUSDBlockedMaria Tabacuksblk Kierstyn Barton, Nemo Beach, BayLea Sparks+0.1
299-20USDUSDKillRyann Knuthset Lauren Lynch·
3010-20USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone·
3110-21LMUUSDAttack errMaria Tabacuks·
3211-21USDLMU×3KillNicole Schuetzset Maria Tabacuks·
3312-21LMULMU×3KillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh·
3413-21LMULMU×3Attack errKierstyn Barton·
3513-22LMUUSD×4KillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday·
3613-23USDUSD×4Bad setDelfina Schuh·
3713-24USDUSD×4KillKylie Mundayset Meghan Scholz·
3813-25USDUSD×4Attack errNicole Schuetz·
Set 2
10-1LMUUSDKillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+0.8
20-2USDUSDKillKylie Mundayset Nemo Beach+1.0
31-2USDLMUKillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+0.7
42-2LMULMUAceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+1.1
52-3LMUUSD×3Serve errLMU (CA)+0.8
62-4USDUSD×3KillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+1.0
72-5USDUSD×3AceSan Diego+0.9
83-5USDLMUBlockedNemo Beachblk Zaria Thornton, Nicole Schuetz+0.7
93-6LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+0.7
104-6USDLMUKillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+0.7
114-7LMUUSD×3KillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.7
124-8USDUSD×3BlockedAnya Santracblk Kylie Munday, BayLea Sparks+0.8
134-9USDUSD×3KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.7
145-9USDLMUAttack errNemo Beach+0.4
155-10LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.5
166-10USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+0.4
177-10LMULMUAceLMU (CA)aced Kierstyn Barton+0.8
187-11LMUUSD×4Serve errLMU (CA)+0.6
197-12USDUSD×4BlockedKyla Firestoneblk BayLea Sparks+0.7
207-13USDUSD×4BlockedMaria Tabacuksblk Kierstyn Barton, Ryann Knuth, BayLea Sparks+0.5
217-14USDUSD×4Attack errAyanna Henry+0.4
228-14USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.2
239-14LMULMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+0.4
249-15LMUUSDKillBayLea Sparksset Kylie Munday+0.4
2510-15USDLMUKillZaria Thorntonset Kyla Firestone+0.3
2610-16LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.4
2710-17USDUSDKillRyann Knuthset Nemo Beach+0.3
2811-17USDLMUKillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+0.2
2911-18LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.2
3011-19USDUSDAceSan Diegoaced Anya Santrac+0.2
3112-19USDLMU×4KillAnya Santracset Nicole Schuetz+0.1
3213-19LMULMU×4KillAleksandra Stojanovicset Delfina Schuh+0.2
3314-19LMULMU×4KillNicole Schuetzset Aleksandra Stojanovic+0.3
3415-19LMULMU×4BlockedMeghan Scholzblk Anya Santrac+0.5
3515-20LMUUSDKillKylie Mundayset Kierstyn Barton+0.5
3616-20USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.3
3716-21LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.5
3816-22USDUSDAceSan Diegoaced Gabriella Cascione+0.3
3917-22USDLMUBlockedKierstyn Bartonblk Ayanna Henry, Aleksandra Stojanovic+0.1
4017-23LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+0.2
4118-23USDLMU×6KillAleksandra Stojanovicset Kyla Firestone+0.1
4219-23LMULMU×6AceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+0.2
4320-23LMULMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+0.5
4421-23LMULMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+1.0
4522-23LMULMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+2.0
4623-23LMULMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Anya Santrac+3.7
4723-24LMUUSDKillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+3.5
4824-24USDLMU×3KillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+3.5
4925-24LMULMU×3KillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+5.5
5026-24LMULMU×3KillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+6.6
Set 3
11-0USDLMUKillAnya Santracset Delfina Schuh+2.0
22-0LMULMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+2.9
32-1LMUUSD×3KillBayLea Sparksset Kylie Munday+1.9
42-2USDUSD×3BlockedMaria Tabacuksblk Kierstyn Barton, Ryann Knuth, BayLea Sparks+2.6
52-3USDUSD×3KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+2.4
63-3USDLMUServe errSan Diego+1.9
74-3LMULMUKillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+2.9
84-4LMUUSDKillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+2.0
95-4USDLMUKillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+2.2
105-5LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+2.0
115-6USDUSDAttack errMaria Tabacuks+2.7
126-6USDLMU×3Serve errSan Diego+2.1
137-6LMULMU×3Attack errRyann Knuth+3.1
148-6LMULMU×3KillAleksandra Stojanovicset Delfina Schuh+3.4
158-7LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+2.3
169-7USDLMU×7KillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+2.7
1710-7LMULMU×7KillAyanna Henry+3.7
1811-7LMULMU×7AceLMU (CA)+3.7
1912-7LMULMU×7KillMaria Tabacuksset Gabriella Cascione+3.5
2013-7LMULMU×7AceLMU (CA)aced Emma Brewer+3.2
2114-7LMULMU×7KillAleksandra Stojanovicset Ryann Knuth+2.7
2215-7LMULMU×7AceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+2.1
2315-8LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+1.0
2416-8USDLMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Ayanna Henry+1.5
2517-8LMULMU×6BlockedBayLea Sparksblk Maria Tabacuks, Aleksandra Stojanovic+1.4
2618-8LMULMU×6Bad setBelle Groomes+0.9
2719-8LMULMU×6Bad setKylie Munday+0.5
2820-8LMULMU×6KillMaria Tabacuksset Gabriella Cascione+0.3
2921-8LMULMU×6AceLMU (CA)aced Nemo Beach+0.1
3021-9LMUUSD×5KillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday·
3121-10USDUSD×5Attack errAnya Santrac+0.1
3221-11USDUSD×5Bad setKyla Firestone+0.1
3321-12USDUSD×5Attack errAyanna Henry+0.2
3421-13USDUSD×5AceSan Diegoaced Maria Tabacuks+0.3
3522-13USDLMUAttack errNemo Beach+0.4
3622-14LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+0.1
3722-15USDUSDBlockedZaria Thorntonblk BayLea Sparks+0.3
3823-15USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.5
3923-16LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.1
4024-16USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.3
4124-17LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday·
4225-17USDLMUServe errSan Diego+0.1
Set 4
11-0LMULMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+4.1
21-1LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kierstyn Barton+2.8
31-2USDUSDBlockedZaria Thorntonblk BayLea Sparks+3.7
42-2USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+2.9
53-2LMULMUAttack errBayLea Sparks+4.3
63-3LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+3.0
74-3USDLMUServe errSan Diego+3.4
84-4LMUUSD×4Attack errAnya Santrac+3.1
94-5USDUSD×4KillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+4.0
104-6USDUSD×4Attack errNicole Schuetz+3.7
114-7USDUSD×4KillRyann Knuthset Kylie Munday+3.2
125-7USDLMUKillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+2.3
135-8LMUUSDAttack errNicole Schuetz+2.4
145-9USDUSDAttack errNicole Schuetz+2.8
156-9USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Gabriella Cascione+1.9
166-10LMUUSDServe errLMU (CA)+2.1
177-10USDLMUKillAyanna Henryset Kyla Firestone+2.0
187-11LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+2.1
198-11USDLMU×3KillAyanna Henryset Kyla Firestone+2.0
209-11LMULMU×3BlockedNemo Beachblk Ayanna Henry+3.4
2110-11LMULMU×3KillMaria Tabacuksset Kyla Firestone+4.3
2210-12LMUUSD×6KillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+3.2
2310-13USDUSD×6AceSan Diego+3.9
2410-14USDUSD×6BlockedAyanna Henryblk BayLea Sparks, Ryann Knuth+3.2
2510-15USDUSD×6KillKierstyn Bartonset Lauren Lynch+2.4
2610-16USDUSD×6BlockedZaria Thorntonblk BayLea Sparks+1.7
2710-17USDUSD×6Attack errNicole Schuetz+1.1
2811-17USDLMUAttack errRyann Knuth+0.6
2911-18LMUUSDKillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+0.8
3012-18USDLMU×3KillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+0.5
3113-18LMULMU×3KillZaria Thorntonset Delfina Schuh+1.1
3214-18LMULMU×3AceLMU (CA)+1.8
3314-19LMUUSD×3KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+1.7
3414-20USDUSD×3AceSan Diegoaced Maria Tabacuks+1.5
3514-21USDUSD×3KillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+0.8
3615-21USDLMU×3KillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+0.3
3716-21LMULMU×3AceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+0.7
3817-21LMULMU×3Serve errLMU (CA)+1.3
3917-22LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+1.5
4017-23USDUSDAceSan Diegoaced Gabriella Cascione+1.0
4118-23USDLMU×4KillAnya Santracset Aleksandra Stojanovic+0.3
4219-23LMULMU×4KillAleksandra Stojanovic+0.8
4320-23LMULMU×4AceLMU (CA)aced Nemo Beach+1.6
4421-23LMULMU×4AceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+3.4
4521-24LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+4.3
4622-24USDLMUKillAleksandra Stojanovicset Maria Tabacuks+1.8
4722-25LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+2.8
Set 5
11-0USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+6.4
21-1LMUUSDAttack errMaria Tabacuks+5.9
32-1USDLMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+6.7
43-1LMULMUKillMaria Tabacuksset Gabriella Cascione+9.6
53-2LMUUSDKillMeghan Scholzset Kylie Munday+6.3
63-3USDUSDKillKylie Mundayset Kierstyn Barton+8.8
74-3USDLMU×3KillMaria Tabacuksset Delfina Schuh+7.3
85-3LMULMU×3KillNicole Schuetzset Delfina Schuh+10.5
96-3LMULMU×3AceLMU (CA)+10.8
106-4LMUUSD×3Serve errLMU (CA)+6.5
116-5USDUSD×3BlockedNicole Schuetzblk Nemo Beach, Meghan Scholz+9.9
126-6USDUSD×3KillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+10.3
137-6USDLMUKillAnya Santracset Delfina Schuh+8.7
147-7LMUUSDKillNemo Beachset Kylie Munday+7.9
157-8USDUSDBlockedAleksandra Stojanovicblk BayLea Sparks+10.8
168-8USDLMU×4Attack errKylie Munday+8.3
179-8LMULMU×4Attack errKierstyn Barton+13.3
1810-8LMULMU×4KillAyanna Henryset Gabriella Cascione+14.5
1911-8LMULMU×4AceLMU (CA)aced Ryann Knuth+13.8
2011-9LMUUSD×3Serve errLMU (CA)+7.1
2111-10USDUSD×3Attack errMaria Tabacuks+12.9
2211-11USDUSD×3KillKierstyn Bartonset Kylie Munday+15.5
2312-11USDLMUServe errSan Diego+14.0
24–2614-12LMU 2 · USD
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+27.9
2715-12LMULMU×3Serve errLMU (CA)+15.5

Score shown after each rally, LMU (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).