FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeWCC

Baylor def. San Diego 3–0

(26-24, 34-32, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BAYLOR	26	34	25	3
USD	24	32	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

USD above 50 · BAYLOR below

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Baylor — set 1, BAYLOR 25-24 USD. Kierstyn Barton stuffed by Ksenia Rakhmanchik & Mya Hemmer. USD win probability 43% → 34%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BAYLOR 59.6%40.4% USD

Baylor wins

3-0

17.0%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

19.9%

San Diego wins

3-0

8.9%

3-1

14.7%

3-2

16.8%

BAYLOR break %: 43.1% vs this opp
USD break %: 41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kierstyn BartonAttack error+9.7%
Kierstyn Barton stuffed by Ksenia Rakhmanchik & Mya Hemmer
Set 1 · BAYLOR 25-24 USD · BAYLOR 57% → 66%
02
Nemo BeachAttack error+9.3%
Attack error by Nemo Beach
Set 1 · BAYLOR 26-24 USD · BAYLOR 66% → 76%
03
Nemo BeachKill+9.1%
Kill by Nemo Beach (set by Kylie Munday)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 27-28 USD · USD 24% → 33%
04
Ryann KnuthKill+9.1%
Kill by Ryann Knuth (set by Kylie Munday)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 31-32 USD · USD 24% → 33%
05
BAYLOR serverAce+8.8%
Baylor ace on Nemo Beach
Set 2 · BAYLOR 29-28 USD · BAYLOR 74% → 82%
06
Mya HemmerKill+8.8%
Kill by Mya Hemmer (set by Isabela Haggard)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 33-32 USD · BAYLOR 74% → 82%
07
Ksenia RakhmanchikAttack error+8.7%
Attack error by Ksenia Rakhmanchik
Set 2 · BAYLOR 24-24 USD · USD 15% → 24%
08
Nadiya JohnsonKill+8.4%
Kill by Nadiya Johnson (set by Morgan Madison)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 34-32 USD · BAYLOR 82% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bayloraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ksenia RakhmanchikOH	3	18	9	50	.180	0	0	3	7	1	1	1	1.5	19.5
7Victoria DavisMB	3	5	2	16	.188	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
12Isabela HaggardS	3	3	1	4	.500	27	2	0	20	0	1	2	2	7
9Mya HemmerMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
17MJ McCurdyOH	3	3	2	16	.063	0	0	1	6	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
16Grace CarrollOPP	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
10Nadiya JohnsonOH	3	11	4	36	.194	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	13
3Taylor CrainL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
26Tehani UlufatuL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	3
22Morgan MadisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
1Harley GreekS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	21	138	.181	40	7	5	57	2	3	16	11	85

San Diegohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kierstyn BartonOH	3	19	9	45	.222	0	0	1	3	0	3	1.5	20.5
18BayLea SparksMB	3	9	1	18	.444	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	10.5
13Emma BrewerOH	3	9	5	28	.143	0	0	0	9	1	1	0.5	9.5
1Nemo BeachOH	3	5	2	19	.158	0	0	1	7	4	1	0.5	5.5
12Kylie MundayS	3	2	0	4	.500	39	1	1	12	0	3	1.5	4.5
15Meghan ScholzMB	3	1	3	5	-.400	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	2.5
8Ryann KnuthOH	3	5	2	18	.167	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	6
2Lauren LynchL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	2	15	0	0	0	0
4Reese BatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
16Allie DunnionMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
5Kalli LipoL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
Team totals		50	23	139	.194	47	2	8	58	7	16	8	79

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 BAYLOR · USD 4

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 3 BAYLORUSD 4

Set 2

34-32

Longest run 5 BAYLORUSD 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 BAYLORUSD 3

Bars above the line = San Diego leads, below = Baylor leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Baylor

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%10/18	50%8/16
2	48%10/21	44%8/18
3	78%7/9	53%8/15
4	70%7/10	13%1/8
5	58%7/12	46%6/13
6	64%7/11	46%6/13
All	59%48/81	45%37/83

San Diego

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%10/24	47%8/17
2	53%8/15	38%6/16
3	78%7/9	47%7/15
4	54%7/13	30%3/10
5	58%7/12	36%4/11
6	70%7/10	42%5/12
All	55%46/83	41%33/81

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

164 rallies

Rally log

#	BAYLOR-USD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	USD	USD×4	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+2.5
2	0-2	USD	USD×4	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Lauren Lynch	+2.5
3	0-3	USD	USD×4	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk BayLea Sparks, Kierstyn Barton	+2.5
4	0-4	USD	USD×4	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.4
5	1-4	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.6
6	2-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+2.4
7	2-5	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.9
8	3-5	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.7
9	4-5	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Nemo Beach	+2.6
10	4-6	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.0
11	5-6	USD	BAYLOR	Serve err	USD server		+1.9
12	5-7	BAYLOR	USD	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+2.1
13	5-8	USD	USD	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Meghan Scholz, Kylie Munday	+2.8
14	6-8	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Morgan Madison	+1.8
15	7-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Taylor Crain		+2.8
16	7-9	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	Kylie Munday		+2.2
17	7-10	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Isabela Haggard		+2.9
18	7-11	USD	USD×3	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+2.7
19	8-11	USD	BAYLOR	Serve err	USD server		+1.7
20	9-11	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Isabela Haggard	+2.7
21	9-12	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+2.3
22	9-13	USD	USD	Bad set	Isabela Haggard		+2.8
23	10-13	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Morgan Madison	+1.7
24	11-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+2.8
25	11-14	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.4
26	11-15	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+3.0
27	11-16	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Grace Carroll	blk Emma Brewer, BayLea Sparks	+2.5
28	12-16	USD	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+1.3
29	13-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Bad set	Kylie Munday		+2.4
30	14-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Emma Brewer	blk Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+3.0
31	14-17	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.7
32	15-17	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+2.2
33	15-18	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.8
34	16-18	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Mya Hemmer	set Isabela Haggard	+2.2
35	16-19	BAYLOR	USD	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+2.9
36	17-19	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Meghan Scholz		+2.3
37	18-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson		+4.0
38	18-20	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+3.6
39	18-21	USD	USD	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+4.4
40	19-21	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Emma Brewer	blk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard	+2.3
41	19-22	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+3.3
42	20-22	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Morgan Madison	+2.2
43	20-23	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+3.5
44	21-23	USD	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.9
45	22-23	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+4.7
46	23-23	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+7.6
47	23-24	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Lauren Lynch	+7.3
48	24-24	USD	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+7.3
49	25-24	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Mya Hemmer	+9.7
50	26-24	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Nemo Beach		+9.3
Set 2
1	0-1	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.7
2	0-2	USD	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Lauren Lynch	+2.3
3	1-2	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Isabela Haggard	+1.6
4	1-3	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.7
5	1-4	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+2.3
6	1-5	USD	USD×3	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Lauren Lynch	+2.2
7	2-5	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.4
8	2-6	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.7
9	3-6	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Kylie Munday	+1.4
10	4-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+2.2
11	4-7	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.8
12	5-7	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Emma Brewer		+1.6
13	5-8	BAYLOR	USD	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.9
14	6-8	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Isabela Haggard		+1.7
15	7-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Tehani Ulufatu	+2.5
16	7-9	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Lauren Lynch	+2.0
17	7-10	USD	USD	Attack err	MJ McCurdy		+2.7
18	8-10	USD	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+1.7
19	9-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson	+2.6
20	10-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Emma Brewer	+2.8
21	11-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Victoria Davis		+2.9
22	12-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson	+2.8
23	12-11	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.9
24	13-11	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+2.1
25	13-12	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+2.0
26	14-12	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Ryann Knuth		+2.2
27	14-13	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.1
28	14-14	USD	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+3.2
29	15-14	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Mya Hemmer	set Isabela Haggard	+2.4
30	15-15	BAYLOR	USD	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+2.5
31	15-16	USD	USD	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Kylie Munday, Meghan Scholz	+3.7
32	16-16	USD	BAYLOR	Serve err	USD server		+2.6
33	17-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Meghan Scholz		+3.7
34	17-17	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.7
35	17-18	USD	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+4.1
36	18-18	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Emma Brewer	blk Mya Hemmer, Isabela Haggard	+2.9
37	18-19	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Lauren Lynch	+3.3
38	19-19	USD	BAYLOR×4	Serve err	USD server		+3.1
39	20-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson	+4.7
40	21-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+4.5
41	22-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+3.6
42	22-20	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.8
43	23-20	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+2.7
44	24-20	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+2.1
45	24-21	BAYLOR	USD×4	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.4
46	24-22	USD	USD×4	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
47	24-23	USD	USD×4	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Kierstyn Barton, Meghan Scholz	+3.6
48	24-24	USD	USD×4	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+8.7
49	25-24	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+6.4
50	25-25	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+6.4
51	26-25	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+6.4
52	26-26	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+6.4
53	27-26	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+6.4
54	27-27	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Meghan Scholz	set Harley Greek	+6.4
55	27-28	USD	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+9.1
56	28-28	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+6.7
57	29-28	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Nemo Beach	+8.8
58	29-29	BAYLOR	USD	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+6.4
59	30-29	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+6.4
60	30-30	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+6.4
61	31-30	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Ryann Knuth	blk MJ McCurdy, Victoria Davis	+6.4
62	31-31	BAYLOR	USD	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+6.4
63	31-32	USD	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+9.1
64	32-32	USD	BAYLOR×3	Serve err	USD server		+6.7
65	33-32	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Mya Hemmer	set Isabela Haggard	+8.8
66	34-32	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Morgan Madison	+8.4
Set 3
1	0-1	USD	USD	Ace	USD server	aced MJ McCurdy	+1.4
2	1-1	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Morgan Madison	+1.0
3	2-1	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Mya Hemmer, Nadiya Johnson	+1.4
4	2-2	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.0
5	2-3	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Mya Hemmer		+1.5
6	2-4	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Nemo Beach, BayLea Sparks	+1.5
7	3-4	USD	BAYLOR	Serve err	USD server		+1.0
8	4-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Nemo Beach	+1.5
9	4-5	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.1
10	4-6	USD	USD	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Kierstyn Barton, Allie Dunnion	+1.6
11	5-6	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.1
12	5-7	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.2
13	5-8	USD	USD	Attack err	MJ McCurdy	blk Allie Dunnion, Kylie Munday	+1.6
14	6-8	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Nemo Beach		+1.0
15	7-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Tehani Ulufatu	+1.6
16	7-9	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kylie Munday	set Ryann Knuth	+1.2
17	8-9	USD	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+1.2
18	9-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Kalli Lipo	+1.7
19	10-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+1.7
20	11-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Isabela Haggard	+1.7
21	11-10	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+1.2
22	11-11	USD	USD×3	Kill	BayLea Sparks		+1.8
23	11-12	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+1.9
24	12-12	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+1.4
25	12-13	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
26	13-13	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Nadiya Johnson	+1.4
27	14-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+2.0
28	14-14	BAYLOR	USD×3	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
29	14-15	USD	USD×3	Ace	USD server	aced Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+2.2
30	14-16	USD	USD×3	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Lauren Lynch	+2.2
31	15-16	USD	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.4
32	16-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Nemo Beach	+2.2
33	17-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	BayLea Sparks	blk Mya Hemmer	+2.3
34	17-17	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.7
35	18-17	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Allie Dunnion	blk Isabela Haggard	+1.8
36	18-18	BAYLOR	USD	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.8
37	19-18	USD	BAYLOR×3	Serve err	USD server		+1.9
38	20-18	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Ryann Knuth	+2.6
39	21-18	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Meghan Scholz		+2.2
40	21-19	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.2
41	22-19	USD	BAYLOR	Attack err	Emma Brewer		+1.6
42	22-20	BAYLOR	USD	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+1.1
43	23-20	USD	BAYLOR	Serve err	USD server		+1.7
44	23-21	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.0
45	24-21	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.7
46	24-22	BAYLOR	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+0.7
47	24-23	USD	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+2.2
48	25-23	USD	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+3.8

Score shown after each rally, Baylor first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.