FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayAMERICAN

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Baylor def. North Texas 3–0

(25-20, 25-13, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NO TEX	20	13	26	0
BAYLOR	25	25	28	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BAYLOR above 50 · NO TEX below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to North Texas — set 1, NO TEX 18-18 BAYLOR. Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Olivia Branum). BAYLOR win probability 96% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NO TEX 4.1%95.9% BAYLOR

North Texas wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.5%

Baylor wins

3-0

58.3%

3-1

28.8%

3-2

8.8%

NO TEX break %: 34.3% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %: 47.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Reagan BedellKill+1.3%
Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Olivia Branum)
Set 1 · NO TEX 18-18 BAYLOR · NO TEX 4% → 6%
02
Lillian CroshawAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Lillian Croshaw
Set 3 · NO TEX 24-24 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 97% → 99%
03
Olivia BranumBad set+1.1%
Bad set by Olivia Branum
Set 1 · NO TEX 18-20 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 95% → 96%
04
NO TEX serverAce+1.1%
North Texas ace on Team
Set 1 · NO TEX 20-21 BAYLOR · NO TEX 3% → 4%
05
Addison AchillesKill+1.0%
Kill by Addison Achilles (set by Grace Carroll)
Set 3 · NO TEX 24-22 BAYLOR · NO TEX 2% → 3%
06
Ksenia RakhmanchikKill+0.9%
Kill by Ksenia Rakhmanchik (set by Isabela Haggard)
Set 1 · NO TEX 20-22 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 96% → 97%
07
Bailey WarrenKill+0.9%
Kill by Bailey Warren (set by Harley Greek)
Set 1 · NO TEX 18-19 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 94% → 95%
08
BAYLOR serverAce+0.9%
Baylor ace on Jahniya Jackson
Set 1 · NO TEX 20-23 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

North Texasaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Lillian CroshawOH	3	9	4	23	.217	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
20Loredana FouonjiMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	4	9
3Addison AchillesMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
12Jahniya JacksonOH	3	4	8	23	-.174	1	0	0	10	3	0	2	1	5
6Reagan BedellOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
23Sidney SoriaS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
5Alessandra RomoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
7Olivia BranumS	3	0	0	1	.000	10	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Dakota MitchellL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0
13Alexa HayesOPP	2	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Alyssa YoungL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Madeline SmithOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
19Jocelyn JourdanOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		30	17	94	.138	25	1	8	32	5	3	10	8	59

Baylorhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ksenia RakhmanchikOH	3	12	4	27	.296	0	3	0	5	0	1	0	1	16
10Nadiya JohnsonOH	3	9	2	19	.368	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
9Mya HemmerMB	3	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
17MJ McCurdyOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	1	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
7Victoria DavisMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	1	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	3
12Isabela HaggardS	3	1	1	4	.000	21	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
16Grace CarrollOPP	3	10	3	16	.438	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
22Morgan MadisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	18	0	0	0	0	1
1Harley GreekS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
3Taylor CrainL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Bailey WarrenOH	1	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
5Lacy TinnellMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
26Tehani UlufatuL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	17	101	.267	37	5	10	39	1	3	10	8	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NO TEX · BAYLOR 8

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 NO TEXBAYLOR 4

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 1 NO TEXBAYLOR 8

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 4 NO TEXBAYLOR 4

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = North Texas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

North Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	36%4/11
2	41%7/17	11%1/9
3	64%7/11	46%6/13
4	64%7/11	0%0/7
5	50%6/12	30%3/10
6	50%5/10	45%5/11
All	53%40/76	31%19/61

Baylor

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	45%5/11
2	88%7/8	68%15/22
3	54%7/13	13%1/8
4	100%7/7	42%5/12
5	70%7/10	30%3/10
6	55%6/11	54%7/13
All	69%42/61	47%36/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	NO TEX-BAYLOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+0.6
2	1-1	NO TEX	BAYLOR×4	Bad set	Sidney Soria		+0.4
3	1-2	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Jahniya Jackson	+0.5
4	1-3	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Mya Hemmer		+0.4
5	1-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Mya Hemmer		+0.4
6	2-4	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Sidney Soria	+0.3
7	2-5	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
8	2-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Addison Achilles		+0.3
9	3-6	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.2
10	4-6	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Lacy Tinnell	blk Loredana Fouonji, Jahniya Jackson	+0.4
11	4-7	NO TEX	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Isabela Haggard		+0.3
12	4-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw		+0.3
13	4-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Lacy Tinnell		+0.2
14	4-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+0.2
15	5-10	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Dakota Mitchell	+0.1
16	5-11	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
17	6-11	BAYLOR	NO TEX×3	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.1
18	7-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Victoria Davis	blk Loredana Fouonji	+0.2
19	8-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Isabela Haggard	blk Loredana Fouonji	+0.3
20	8-12	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
21	9-12	BAYLOR	NO TEX×3	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+0.2
22	10-12	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Bad set	Isabela Haggard		+0.5
23	11-12	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+0.7
24	11-13	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.5
25	12-13	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Olivia Branum	+0.5
26	12-14	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.5
27	12-15	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.6
28	13-15	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.4
29	13-16	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.4
30	14-16	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+0.4
31	15-16	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+0.8
32	15-17	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.6
33	16-17	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+0.6
34	16-18	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.6
35	17-18	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.6
36	18-18	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+1.3
37	18-19	NO TEX	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Harley Greek	+0.9
38	18-20	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Bad set	Olivia Branum		+1.1
39	18-21	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.8
40	19-21	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+0.4
41	20-21	NO TEX	NO TEX	Ace	NO TEX server	aced Team	+1.1
42	20-22	NO TEX	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.9
43	20-23	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Jahniya Jackson	+0.9
44	20-24	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Reagan Bedell	blk Nadiya Johnson	+0.4
45	20-25	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Victoria Davis	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.3
2	1-1	NO TEX	BAYLOR×8	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw	blk Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+0.2
3	1-2	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Dakota Mitchell	+0.3
4	1-3	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Harley Greek	+0.3
5	1-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Grace Carroll, Mya Hemmer	+0.2
6	1-5	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Bad set	Sidney Soria		+0.2
7	1-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Kill	Mya Hemmer		+0.1
8	1-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.1
9	1-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×8	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+0.1
10	2-8	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
11	2-9	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.0
12	3-9	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
13	3-10	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.0
14	4-10	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.0
15	4-11	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+0.0
16	5-11	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Addison Achilles, Alexa Hayes	+0.0
17	5-12	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
18	6-12	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.0
19	6-13	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
20	6-14	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Grace Carroll, Mya Hemmer	+0.0
21	7-14	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
22	7-15	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+0.0
23	8-15	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	MJ McCurdy		+0.0
24	8-16	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.0
25	9-16	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.0
26	9-17	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Harley Greek	+0.0
27	9-18	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
28	10-18	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Madeline Smith	set Alexa Hayes	+0.0
29	10-19	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
30	11-19	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.0
31	11-20	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
32	11-21	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Mya Hemmer		+0.0
33	12-21	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
34	12-22	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
35	13-22	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.0
36	13-23	NO TEX	BAYLOR×3	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.0
37	13-24	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Grace Carroll, Mya Hemmer	+0.0
38	13-25	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Jahniya Jackson	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+0.1
2	1-1	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.1
3	1-2	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.1
4	2-2	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
5	2-3	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.1
6	3-3	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
7	3-4	NO TEX	BAYLOR×3	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.1
8	3-5	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
9	3-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson	+0.1
10	4-6	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.1
11	4-7	NO TEX	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
12	4-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
13	4-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Addison Achilles		+0.1
14	4-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
15	5-10	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
16	6-10	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+0.1
17	6-11	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.0
18	7-11	BAYLOR	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+0.0
19	8-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
20	9-11	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+0.1
21	9-12	NO TEX	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+0.1
22	9-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.1
23	9-14	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Team	+0.1
24	10-14	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+0.0
25	11-14	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	MJ McCurdy	blk Lillian Croshaw, Loredana Fouonji	+0.1
26	11-15	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.1
27	12-15	BAYLOR	NO TEX×4	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.1
28	13-15	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Attack err	MJ McCurdy		+0.2
29	14-15	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+0.2
30	15-15	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Jahniya Jackson	+0.3
31	15-16	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.2
32	16-16	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.2
33	16-17	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.2
34	17-17	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Victoria Davis	+0.3
35	17-18	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
36	18-18	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+0.3
37	19-18	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Loredana Fouonji, Reagan Bedell	+0.5
38	19-19	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+0.3
39	19-20	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll		+0.4
40	20-20	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.3
41	21-20	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Sidney Soria	+0.6
42	21-21	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+0.4
43	22-21	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Alessandra Romo	+0.5
44	22-22	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+0.4
45	23-22	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Attack err	Grace Carroll	blk Jahniya Jackson, Loredana Fouonji	+0.6
46	24-22	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Grace Carroll	+1.0
47	24-23	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw	blk MJ McCurdy, Victoria Davis	+0.4
48	24-24	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw		+1.2
49	25-24	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.8
50	25-25	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	NO TEX server		+0.8
51	25-26	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson	blk Victoria Davis	+0.9
52	26-26	BAYLOR	NO TEX	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Olivia Branum	+0.6
53	26-27	NO TEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.6
54	26-28	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Bad set	Olivia Branum		+0.6

Score shown after each rally, North Texas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.