FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySEC

#17FLAFlorida

3:0

HomeBIG-12

#20BAYLORBaylor

Florida def. Baylor 3–0

(25-13, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FLA	25	25	25	3
BAYLOR	13	23	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BAYLOR above 50 · FLA below

Biggest swing: 8.9% to Florida — set 2, FLA 25-23 BAYLOR. Attack error by Grace Carroll. BAYLOR win probability 19% → 10%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FLA 58.0%42.0% BAYLOR

Florida wins

3-0

16.1%

3-1

22.1%

3-2

19.7%

Baylor wins

3-0

9.5%

3-1

15.4%

3-2

17.2%

FLA break %: 40.0% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %: 38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Grace CarrollAttack error+8.9%
Attack error by Grace Carroll
Set 2 · FLA 25-23 BAYLOR · FLA 81% → 90%
02
Grace CarrollKill+7.0%
Kill by Grace Carroll (set by Ksenia Rakhmanchik)
Set 2 · FLA 23-23 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 17% → 24%
03
Mya HemmerAttack error+5.9%
Attack error by Mya Hemmer
Set 2 · FLA 24-23 BAYLOR · FLA 76% → 81%
04
Ksenia RakhmanchikAttack error+5.9%
Attack error by Ksenia Rakhmanchik
Set 2 · FLA 23-21 BAYLOR · FLA 79% → 85%
05
Kamryn ChaneyKill+5.6%
Kill by Kamryn Chaney (set by Taylor Parks)
Set 2 · FLA 21-20 BAYLOR · FLA 73% → 79%
06
Alec RotheAttack error+5.2%
Alec Rothe stuffed by Bailey Warren
Set 2 · FLA 19-20 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 25% → 30%
07
BAYLOR serverAce+4.6%
Baylor ace on Logan King
Set 2 · FLA 19-19 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 20% → 25%
08
BAYLOR serverService error+4.1%
Baylor service error
Set 2 · FLA 22-21 BAYLOR · FLA 75% → 79%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Floridaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Logan KingOPP	3	10	1	18	.500	0	1	2	2	1	1	1	1.5	12.5
7Kamryn ChaneyOH	3	12	1	14	.786	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
4Brooklyn BriscoeMB	3	7	1	10	.600	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
25Alec RotheMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
20Taylor ParksS	3	2	0	4	.500	32	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	3
5Selena LebanOH	2	2	5	15	-.200	2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Lily HayesL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	1	0	18	0	0	0	0	1
21Bella LeeL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
3Emerson HoyleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Kira HutsonOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	1	3
11Nadi'ya ShelbyOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Olivia KlimisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	15	89	.281	37	6	14	38	2	3	6	6	75

Baylorhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ksenia RakhmanchikOH	3	12	4	35	.229	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	12
2Bailey WarrenOH	3	6	4	19	.105	1	0	2	3	1	1	0	1	7
7Victoria DavisMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
9Mya HemmerMB	3	0	3	7	-.429	1	0	0	2	0	1	3	2.5	2.5
12Isabela HaggardS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
10Nadiya JohnsonOH	2	0	3	5	-.600	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
16Grace CarrollOPP	3	2	5	11	-.273	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
22Morgan MadisonL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	0	10	1	0	0	0	0
3Taylor CrainL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
26Tehani UlufatuL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Harley GreekS	2	0	0	1	.000	12	1	2	5	0	0	2	1	2
Team totals		24	20	87	.046	22	2	8	29	6	3	6	6	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 FLA · BAYLOR 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 6 FLABAYLOR 2

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 FLABAYLOR 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 FLABAYLOR 4

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Florida

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	65%13/20
2	67%8/12	33%4/12
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	100%6/6	63%10/16
5	56%5/9	29%2/7
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	70%39/56	49%36/74

Baylor

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%8/21	40%4/10
2	62%8/13	11%1/9
3	46%6/13	43%6/14
4	50%6/12	14%1/7
5	56%5/9	33%3/9
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	51%38/74	30%17/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	FLA-BAYLOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FLA	FLA×4	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Logan King, Alec Rothe	+2.6
2	2-0	FLA	FLA×4	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+2.5
3	3-0	FLA	FLA×4	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+2.4
4	4-0	FLA	FLA×4	Kill	Logan King	set Selena Leban	+2.2
5	4-1	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+1.3
6	5-1	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+1.4
7	5-2	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+1.3
8	5-3	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Selena Leban	blk Mya Hemmer, Nadiya Johnson	+2.3
9	6-3	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+1.6
10	6-4	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.5
11	6-5	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Bailey Warren	+2.6
12	7-5	BAYLOR	FLA×3	Kill	Selena Leban	set Taylor Parks	+1.8
13	8-5	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+2.6
14	9-5	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Selena Leban	set Lily Hayes	+2.3
15	9-6	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+1.3
16	10-6	BAYLOR	FLA×3	Kill	Taylor Parks	set Lily Hayes	+1.5
17	11-6	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+2.0
18	12-6	FLA	FLA×3	Ace	FLA server	aced Team	+1.6
19	12-7	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.8
20	13-7	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+1.0
21	13-8	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.8
22	14-8	BAYLOR	FLA×6	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+1.0
23	15-8	FLA	FLA×6	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Selena Leban	+1.1
24	16-8	FLA	FLA×6	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+0.7
25	17-8	FLA	FLA×6	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.4
26	18-8	FLA	FLA×6	Attack err	Bailey Warren	blk Alec Rothe, Kamryn Chaney	+0.2
27	19-8	FLA	FLA×6	Ace	FLA server	aced Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+0.1
28	19-9	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
29	19-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+0.1
30	20-10	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
31	20-11	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
32	21-11	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
33	22-11	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Logan King	+0.0
34	22-12	FLA	BAYLOR	Attack err	Selena Leban		+0.0
35	23-12	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
36	24-12	FLA	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
37	24-13	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
38	25-13	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Team	+2.4
2	1-1	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.6
3	1-2	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Harley Greek	+1.6
4	2-2	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.6
5	2-3	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+1.7
6	2-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Alec Rothe		+2.6
7	3-4	BAYLOR	FLA×3	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+1.6
8	4-4	FLA	FLA×3	Ace	FLA server	aced Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+2.6
9	5-4	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+2.6
10	5-5	FLA	BAYLOR	Attack err	Logan King		+1.7
11	6-5	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+1.7
12	6-6	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+1.7
13	6-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+2.8
14	7-7	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.8
15	8-7	FLA	FLA	Ace	FLA server	aced Morgan Madison	+2.8
16	8-8	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Harley Greek	+1.8
17	8-9	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Taylor Parks	+3.0
18	9-9	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.9
19	10-9	FLA	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe		+3.0
20	10-10	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Harley Greek	+1.9
21	11-10	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+2.0
22	11-11	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+2.0
23	12-11	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+2.1
24	13-11	FLA	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+3.1
25	13-12	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+1.9
26	14-12	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+2.1
27	15-12	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Grace Carroll	blk Brooklyn Briscoe, Selena Leban	+2.9
28	15-13	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Harley Greek	+1.6
29	16-13	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+1.9
30	16-14	FLA	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Selena Leban		+1.7
31	16-15	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Selena Leban	blk Harley Greek, Mya Hemmer	+3.2
32	16-16	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Selena Leban	blk Harley Greek, Mya Hemmer	+3.8
33	17-16	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kira Hutson	set Bella Lee	+2.6
34	18-16	FLA	FLA	Ace	FLA server	aced Bailey Warren	+3.9
35	18-17	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+2.3
36	19-17	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+2.7
37	19-18	FLA	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Harley Greek	+2.3
38	19-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Logan King	+4.6
39	19-20	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Alec Rothe	blk Bailey Warren	+5.2
40	20-20	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+3.2
41	21-20	FLA	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+5.6
42	21-21	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Harley Greek	+3.5
43	22-21	BAYLOR	FLA	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+4.1
44	23-21	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+5.9
45	23-22	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+2.6
46	23-23	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Grace Carroll	set Ksenia Rakhmanchik	+7.0
47	24-23	BAYLOR	FLA	Attack err	Mya Hemmer		+5.9
48	25-23	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+8.9
Set 3
1	1-0	FLA	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+1.4
2	1-1	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Taylor Parks	+0.9
3	2-1	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Lily Hayes	+0.9
4	3-1	FLA	FLA	Bad set	Harley Greek		+1.4
5	3-2	FLA	BAYLOR	Attack err	Kira Hutson		+0.9
6	4-2	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.9
7	5-2	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Mya Hemmer	blk Kira Hutson	+1.4
8	5-3	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Harley Greek	+0.8
9	6-3	BAYLOR	FLA×4	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.9
10	7-3	FLA	FLA×4	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+1.3
11	8-3	FLA	FLA×4	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+1.1
12	9-3	FLA	FLA×4	Ace	FLA server	aced Team	+0.9
13	9-4	FLA	BAYLOR	Attack err	Kira Hutson		+0.5
14	10-4	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Taylor Parks		+0.6
15	10-5	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.5
16	10-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Brooklyn Briscoe		+0.9
17	11-6	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.7
18	11-7	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.6
19	12-7	BAYLOR	FLA	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.7
20	12-8	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.6
21	13-8	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.7
22	14-8	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+0.9
23	14-9	FLA	BAYLOR	Attack err	Alec Rothe	blk Mya Hemmer	+0.4
24	15-9	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Logan King	set Taylor Parks	+0.5
25	16-9	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Brooklyn Briscoe	+0.6
26	16-10	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
27	17-10	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Brooklyn Briscoe	set Taylor Parks	+0.4
28	17-11	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Mya Hemmer	+0.2
29	18-11	BAYLOR	FLA	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+0.3
30	18-12	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
31	19-12	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.3
32	19-13	FLA	BAYLOR	Serve err	FLA server		+0.2
33	19-14	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Alec Rothe		+0.4
34	20-14	BAYLOR	FLA×3	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+0.4
35	21-14	FLA	FLA×3	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.3
36	22-14	FLA	FLA×3	Attack err	Grace Carroll		+0.1
37	22-15	FLA	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Harley Greek	+0.0
38	23-15	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Kamryn Chaney	set Taylor Parks	+0.1
39	24-15	FLA	FLA	Attack err	Mya Hemmer		+0.0
40	24-16	FLA	BAYLOR×4	Serve err	FLA server		+0.0
41	24-17	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
42	24-18	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Nadi'ya Shelby		+0.0
43	24-19	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Kira Hutson	blk Nadiya Johnson	+0.0
44	25-19	BAYLOR	FLA	Kill	Alec Rothe	set Taylor Parks	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.