FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

Florida def. Baylor 3–0

Florida won at Baylor 3-0 (25-13, 25-23, 25-19) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026. Florida's Kamryn Chaney led with 12 kills, and Lily Hayes added 18 digs.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set123Sets
FLA2525253
BAYLOR1323190

Win probability

Baylor above 50 · Florida below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+7.5% FLArally 130 · set 3

Biggest swing: 7.5% to Florida — set 2, FLA 25-23 BAYLOR. Attack error by Grace Carroll. BAYLOR win probability 15% → 7%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FLA 65.9%34.1% BAYLOR

Florida wins

3-0
20.6%
3-1
25.3%
3-2
20.1%

Baylor wins

3-0
6.9%
3-1
12.2%
3-2
15.0%
FLA break %
39.6% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %
36.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Grace CarrollAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Grace Carroll

    Set 2 · FLA 25-23 BAYLOR · FLA 85% → 93%

  2. 02
    Grace CarrollKill+6.2%

    Kill by Grace Carroll (set by Ksenia Rakhmanchik)

    Set 2 · FLA 23-23 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 13% → 20%

  3. 03
    Ksenia RakhmanchikAttack error+5.1%

    Attack error by Ksenia Rakhmanchik

    Set 2 · FLA 23-21 BAYLOR · FLA 83% → 89%

  4. 04
    Kamryn ChaneyKill+5.0%

    Kill by Kamryn Chaney (set by Taylor Parks)

    Set 2 · FLA 21-20 BAYLOR · FLA 78% → 83%

  5. 05
    Mya HemmerAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Mya Hemmer

    Set 2 · FLA 24-23 BAYLOR · FLA 80% → 85%

  6. 06
    Bailey WarrenBlock+4.8%

    Alec Rothe stuffed by Bailey Warren

    Set 2 · FLA 19-20 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 20% → 25%

  7. 07
    BaylorAce+4.1%

    Baylor ace on Logan King

    Set 2 · FLA 19-19 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 16% → 20%

  8. 08
    BaylorService error+3.4%

    Baylor service error

    Set 2 · FLA 22-21 BAYLOR · FLA 80% → 83%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310118.50001221111.512.5
312114.78600210010.512.5
37110.60000030111.58.5
36313.231000100217
3204.5003213600003
22515-.20022110010.54.5
3002.0002101800001
21Bella LeeL/DS
3001.000102300000
3000–002000000
2137-.286011301013
1015-.200000000000
1000–001000000
Team totals401589.2813761438236675
Baylorhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312435.2291010200012
36419.105102311017
3417.429000100004
3037-.42910020132.52.5
3000–610400001
2035-.60000010111.51.5
32511-.273000100002
3002.0001001010000
3000–002000000
3000–001200000
2001.0001212500212
Team totals242087.046222829636655

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 FLA · BAYLOR 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 6 FLABAYLOR 2

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 FLABAYLOR 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 FLABAYLOR 4

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
65%13/20
2
67%8/12
33%4/12
3
70%7/10
42%5/12
4
100%6/6
63%10/16
5
56%5/9
29%2/7
6
71%5/7
29%2/7
All
70%39/56
49%36/74

Baylor

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%8/21
40%4/10
2
62%8/13
11%1/9
3
46%6/13
43%6/14
4
50%6/12
14%1/7
5
56%5/9
33%3/9
6
83%5/6
29%2/7
All
51%38/74
30%17/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#FLA-BAYLORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FLAFLA×4BlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Logan King, Alec Rothe+2.4
22-0FLAFLA×4Attack errBailey Warren+2.3
33-0FLAFLA×4Attack errVictoria Davis+2.1
44-0FLAFLA×4KillLogan Kingset Selena Leban+1.9
54-1FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+1.1
65-1BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+1.2
75-2FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+1.1
85-3BAYLORBAYLORBlockedSelena Lebanblk Mya Hemmer, Nadiya Johnson+2.1
96-3BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+1.4
106-4FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.3
116-5BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Bailey Warren+2.4
127-5BAYLORFLA×3KillSelena Lebanset Taylor Parks+1.6
138-5FLAFLA×3Attack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+2.4
149-5FLAFLA×3KillSelena Lebanset Lily Hayes+2.1
159-6FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.1
1610-6BAYLORFLA×3KillTaylor Parksset Lily Hayes+1.3
1711-6FLAFLA×3Attack errBailey Warren+1.7
1812-6FLAFLA×3AceFlorida+1.3
1912-7FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.6
2013-7BAYLORFLAKillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+0.8
2113-8FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.6
2214-8BAYLORFLA×6KillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+0.8
2315-8FLAFLA×6KillKamryn Chaneyset Selena Leban+0.9
2416-8FLAFLA×6Attack errNadiya Johnson+0.5
2517-8FLAFLA×6KillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+0.3
2618-8FLAFLA×6BlockedBailey Warrenblk Alec Rothe, Kamryn Chaney+0.2
2719-8FLAFLA×6AceFloridaaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+0.1
2819-9FLABAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard·
2919-10BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Morgan Madison+0.1
3020-10BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+0.1
3120-11FLABAYLORServe errFlorida·
3221-11BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks·
3322-11FLAFLABlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Logan King·
3422-12FLABAYLORAttack errSelena Leban·
3523-12BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks·
3624-12FLAFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks·
3724-13FLABAYLORServe errFlorida·
3825-13BAYLORFLAKillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks·
Set 2
10-1BAYLORBAYLORAceBaylor+2.2
21-1BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.3
31-2FLABAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.4
42-2BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.3
52-3FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+1.4
62-4BAYLORBAYLORAttack errAlec Rothe+2.4
73-4BAYLORFLA×3KillAlec Rotheset Taylor Parks+1.4
84-4FLAFLA×3AceFloridaaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+2.3
95-4FLAFLA×3KillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+2.3
105-5FLABAYLORAttack errLogan King+1.4
116-5BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+1.4
126-6FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+1.5
136-7BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Harley Greek+2.6
147-7BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.5
158-7FLAFLAAceFloridaaced Morgan Madison+2.5
168-8FLABAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.6
178-9BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Taylor Parks+2.7
189-9BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.6
1910-9FLAFLAKillAlec Rothe+2.7
2010-10FLABAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.7
2111-10BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.7
2211-11FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+1.7
2312-11BAYLORFLAKillAlec Rotheset Taylor Parks+1.7
2413-11FLAFLAKillAlec Rotheset Taylor Parks+2.7
2513-12FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Harley Greek+1.6
2614-12BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+1.7
2715-12FLAFLABlockedGrace Carrollblk Brooklyn Briscoe, Selena Leban+2.5
2815-13FLABAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Harley Greek+1.3
2916-13BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+1.6
3016-14FLABAYLOR×3Attack errSelena Leban+1.3
3116-15BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedSelena Lebanblk Harley Greek, Mya Hemmer+2.8
3216-16BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedSelena Lebanblk Harley Greek, Mya Hemmer+3.4
3317-16BAYLORFLAKillKira Hutsonset Bella Lee+2.2
3418-16FLAFLAAceFloridaaced Bailey Warren+3.4
3518-17FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Harley Greek+1.9
3619-17BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+2.2
3719-18FLABAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.9
3819-19BAYLORBAYLOR×3AceBayloraced Logan King+4.1
3919-20BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedAlec Rotheblk Bailey Warren+4.8
4020-20BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+2.8
4121-20FLAFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+5.0
4221-21FLABAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Harley Greek+3.0
4322-21BAYLORFLAServe errBaylor+3.4
4423-21FLAFLAAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+5.1
4523-22FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Harley Greek+2.1
4623-23BAYLORBAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Ksenia Rakhmanchik+6.2
4724-23BAYLORFLAAttack errMya Hemmer+4.9
4825-23FLAFLAAttack errGrace Carroll+7.5
Set 3
11-0FLAFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+1.2
21-1FLABAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Taylor Parks+0.7
32-1BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Lily Hayes+0.7
43-1FLAFLABad setHarley Greek+1.1
53-2FLABAYLORAttack errKira Hutson+0.7
64-2BAYLORFLAKillAlec Rotheset Taylor Parks+0.7
75-2FLAFLABlockedMya Hemmerblk Kira Hutson+1.1
85-3FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Harley Greek+0.6
96-3BAYLORFLA×4KillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+0.7
107-3FLAFLA×4KillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+1.0
118-3FLAFLA×4KillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+0.8
129-3FLAFLA×4AceFlorida+0.6
139-4FLABAYLORAttack errKira Hutson+0.3
1410-4BAYLORFLAKillTaylor Parks+0.4
1510-5FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.3
1610-6BAYLORBAYLORAttack errBrooklyn Briscoe+0.7
1711-6BAYLORFLAKillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+0.5
1811-7FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.4
1912-7BAYLORFLAAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+0.5
2012-8FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.4
2113-8BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+0.5
2214-8FLAFLAAttack errGrace Carroll+0.6
2314-9FLABAYLORBlockedAlec Rotheblk Mya Hemmer+0.3
2415-9BAYLORFLAKillLogan Kingset Taylor Parks+0.4
2516-9FLAFLABlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Brooklyn Briscoe+0.4
2616-10FLABAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.2
2717-10BAYLORFLAKillBrooklyn Briscoeset Taylor Parks+0.2
2817-11FLABAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Mya Hemmer+0.1
2918-11BAYLORFLAAttack errBailey Warren+0.2
3018-12FLABAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.1
3119-12BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+0.2
3219-13FLABAYLORServe errFlorida+0.1
3319-14BAYLORBAYLORAttack errAlec Rothe+0.3
3420-14BAYLORFLA×3Attack errGrace Carroll+0.3
3521-14FLAFLA×3KillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks+0.2
3622-14FLAFLA×3Attack errGrace Carroll+0.1
3722-15FLABAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Harley Greek·
3823-15BAYLORFLAKillKamryn Chaneyset Taylor Parks·
3924-15FLAFLAAttack errMya Hemmer·
4024-16FLABAYLOR×4Serve errFlorida·
4124-17BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard·
4224-18BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errNadi'ya Shelby·
4324-19BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedKira Hutsonblk Nadiya Johnson·
4425-19BAYLORFLAKillAlec Rotheset Taylor Parks·

Score shown after each rally, Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).