FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Baylor def. New Mexico 3–0

(25-20, 25-17, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BAYLOR	25	25	25	3
N MEX	20	17	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

N MEX above 50 · BAYLOR below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to New Mexico — set 2, BAYLOR 2-6 N MEX. New Mexico ace on Morgan Madison. N MEX win probability 3% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BAYLOR 96.5%3.5% N MEX

Baylor wins

3-0

60.4%

3-1

28.1%

3-2

8.1%

New Mexico wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.2%

BAYLOR break %: 47.9% vs this opp
N MEX break %: 34.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
N MEX serverAce+0.6%
New Mexico ace on Morgan Madison
Set 2 · BAYLOR 2-6 N MEX · N MEX 3% → 4%
02
Seenane BrewerKill+0.5%
Kill by Seenane Brewer (set by Madeleine Miller)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 0-4 N MEX · N MEX 3% → 3%
03
Addison FranceKill+0.5%
Kill by Addison France (set by Madeleine Miller)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 0-3 N MEX · N MEX 2% → 3%
04
Nadiya JohnsonKill+0.5%
Kill by Nadiya Johnson (set by Jules Hernandez)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 4-6 N MEX · BAYLOR 97% → 97%
05
Mya HemmerKill+0.4%
Kill by Mya Hemmer (set by Isabela Haggard)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 5-6 N MEX · BAYLOR 97% → 98%
06
Zoe LeonardAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Zoe Leonard
Set 2 · BAYLOR 2-4 N MEX · BAYLOR 97% → 97%
07
Victoria DavisAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Victoria Davis
Set 2 · BAYLOR 0-2 N MEX · N MEX 2% → 2%
08
Ksenia RakhmanchikKill+0.4%
Kill by Ksenia Rakhmanchik (set by Isabela Haggard)
Set 2 · BAYLOR 6-6 N MEX · BAYLOR 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bayloraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ksenia RakhmanchikOH	3	17	5	40	.300	0	1	1	14	0	0	0	18
10Nadiya JohnsonOH	3	8	4	24	.167	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
7Victoria DavisMB	3	7	3	21	.190	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	8.5
12Isabela HaggardS	3	4	0	7	.571	32	1	2	7	0	4	2	7
9Mya HemmerMB	3	3	0	6	.500	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	4
33Jules HernandezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
22Morgan MadisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	16	1	0	0	0
3Taylor CrainL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
26Tehani UlufatuL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	0
2Bailey WarrenOH	2	5	3	15	.133	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	5
17MJ McCurdyOH	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Lacy TinnellMB	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	16	118	.254	40	2	6	55	4	10	5	75

New Mexicohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Addison FranceOPP	3	10	6	32	.125	0	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
1Reagan MillerMB	3	8	3	21	.238	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
9Mina StanojevicOH	3	6	6	29	.000	1	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	6
16Madeleine MillerS	3	3	1	11	.182	27	1	0	6	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Zoe LeonardMB	3	3	2	12	.083	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
12Seenane BrewerOH	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	2	3	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
14Camila CanedoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	20	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		33	20	119	.109	30	4	6	47	2	1	6	4	59

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 BAYLOR · N MEX 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 BAYLORN MEX 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 6 BAYLORN MEX 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 BAYLORN MEX 4

Bars above the line = New Mexico leads, below = Baylor leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Baylor

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	57%8/14
2	54%7/13	36%4/11
3	88%7/8	42%5/12
4	100%5/5	62%8/13
5	63%5/8	62%8/13
6	63%5/8	50%5/10
All	61%37/61	52%38/73

New Mexico

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	46%6/13
2	88%7/8	61%11/18
3	46%6/13	22%2/9
4	28%5/18	0%0/6
5	45%5/11	38%3/8
6	50%5/10	29%2/7
All	48%35/73	39%24/61

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	BAYLOR-N MEX	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	N MEX	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
2	2-0	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.4
3	3-0	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+0.3
4	3-1	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Madeleine Miller		+0.2
5	3-2	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+0.4
6	4-2	N MEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Addison France		+0.3
7	4-3	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Seenane Brewer	set Madeleine Miller	+0.3
8	5-3	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
9	6-3	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Team	+0.3
10	6-4	BAYLOR	N MEX	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+0.2
11	7-4	N MEX	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Morgan Madison	+0.2
12	8-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Zoe Leonard		+0.3
13	9-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
14	10-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Isabela Haggard, Victoria Davis	+0.1
15	10-5	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
16	11-5	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
17	12-5	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
18	12-6	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
19	13-6	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
20	13-7	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
21	13-8	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Victoria Davis	blk Reagan Miller	+0.1
22	14-8	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
23	14-9	BAYLOR	N MEX×3	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+0.1
24	14-10	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Zoe Leonard	set Madeleine Miller	+0.2
25	14-11	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.3
26	15-11	N MEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.2
27	15-12	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Zoe Leonard	set Madeleine Miller	+0.2
28	16-12	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Tehani Ulufatu	+0.2
29	16-13	BAYLOR	N MEX	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+0.2
30	17-13	N MEX	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Mya Hemmer, Isabela Haggard	+0.3
31	18-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
32	19-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
33	20-13	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard	+0.1
34	20-14	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Madeleine Miller	set Tehani Ulufatu	+0.0
35	21-14	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
36	21-15	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Camila Canedo	+0.0
37	22-15	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
38	22-16	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
39	23-16	N MEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Seenane Brewer	blk Nadiya Johnson, Victoria Davis	+0.0
40	23-17	BAYLOR	N MEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.0
41	23-18	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.0
42	24-18	N MEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.0
43	24-19	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
44	24-20	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.0
45	25-20	N MEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Addison France		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	BAYLOR	N MEX×4	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.3
2	0-2	N MEX	N MEX×4	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+0.4
3	0-3	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.5
4	0-4	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Seenane Brewer	set Madeleine Miller	+0.5
5	1-4	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
6	2-4	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Zoe Leonard		+0.4
7	2-5	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.4
8	2-6	N MEX	N MEX	Ace	N MEX server	aced Morgan Madison	+0.6
9	3-6	N MEX	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
10	4-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Jules Hernandez	+0.5
11	5-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Mya Hemmer	set Isabela Haggard	+0.4
12	6-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.4
13	7-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Mya Hemmer		+0.4
14	8-6	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×6	Kill	Mya Hemmer	set Isabela Haggard	+0.3
15	8-7	BAYLOR	N MEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.2
16	9-7	N MEX	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
17	10-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic		+0.3
18	11-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
19	12-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+0.1
20	13-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Addison France		+0.1
21	13-8	BAYLOR	N MEX	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik		+0.1
22	14-8	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Tehani Ulufatu	+0.1
23	15-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Mya Hemmer	+0.1
24	15-9	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Madeleine Miller	set Mina Stanojevic	+0.0
25	16-9	N MEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.0
26	16-10	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
27	16-11	N MEX	N MEX	Ace	N MEX server	aced Bailey Warren	+0.1
28	17-11	N MEX	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Bailey Warren	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
29	18-11	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Attack err	Addison France		+0.1
30	19-11	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Bailey Warren		+0.0
31	20-11	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Bad set	Madeleine Miller		+0.0
32	20-12	BAYLOR	N MEX×4	Attack err	Bailey Warren		+0.0
33	20-13	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Zoe Leonard	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
34	20-14	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
35	20-15	N MEX	N MEX×4	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson		+0.0
36	21-15	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
37	21-16	BAYLOR	N MEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.0
38	22-16	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
39	22-17	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
40	23-17	N MEX	BAYLOR×3	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.0
41	24-17	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
42	25-17	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×3	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
2	1-1	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
3	2-1	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
4	2-2	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
5	3-2	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
6	4-2	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Mya Hemmer, Isabela Haggard	+0.1
7	4-3	BAYLOR	N MEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.1
8	5-3	N MEX	BAYLOR	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.1
9	5-4	BAYLOR	N MEX×4	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
10	5-5	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
11	5-6	N MEX	N MEX×4	Attack err	Victoria Davis		+0.2
12	5-7	N MEX	N MEX×4	Ace	N MEX server	aced Tehani Ulufatu	+0.2
13	6-7	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
14	7-7	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Ace	BAYLOR server	aced Camila Canedo	+0.2
15	7-8	BAYLOR	N MEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.2
16	8-8	N MEX	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Nadiya Johnson	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
17	9-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+0.2
18	10-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.2
19	11-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Addison France		+0.1
20	12-8	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×5	Attack err	Madeleine Miller		+0.1
21	12-9	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
22	12-10	N MEX	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
23	13-10	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
24	14-10	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
25	14-11	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
26	14-12	N MEX	N MEX	Ace	N MEX server	aced Jules Hernandez	+0.1
27	15-12	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Morgan Madison	+0.1
28	15-13	BAYLOR	N MEX	Serve err	BAYLOR server		+0.1
29	16-13	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
30	16-14	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
31	17-14	N MEX	BAYLOR	Kill	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
32	18-14	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Kill	Isabela Haggard	set Lacy Tinnell	+0.1
33	18-15	BAYLOR	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
34	19-15	N MEX	BAYLOR×4	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.1
35	20-15	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	MJ McCurdy	set Isabela Haggard	+0.1
36	21-15	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
37	22-15	BAYLOR	BAYLOR×4	Kill	Victoria Davis	set Isabela Haggard	+0.0
38	22-16	BAYLOR	N MEX×3	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
39	22-17	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
40	22-18	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	MJ McCurdy	blk Madeleine Miller, Reagan Miller	+0.0
41	23-18	N MEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Addison France		+0.0
42	24-18	BAYLOR	BAYLOR	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+0.0
43	24-19	BAYLOR	N MEX×4	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
44	24-20	N MEX	N MEX×4	Attack err	Nadiya Johnson	blk Reagan Miller, Seenane Brewer	+0.0
45	24-21	N MEX	N MEX×4	Kill	Seenane Brewer	set Camila Canedo	+0.0
46	24-22	N MEX	N MEX×4	Attack err	Ksenia Rakhmanchik	blk Reagan Miller, Addison France	+0.1
47	25-22	N MEX	BAYLOR	Attack err	Seenane Brewer		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Baylor first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.