CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsWed, Sep 16, 2026
UIW logo

AwaySOUTHLAND

1:3
Baylor logo

HomeBIG-12

Baylor def. UIW 31

(25-10, 25-18, 23-25, 25-19)
Set1234Sets
INCWRD101825191
BAYLOR252523253

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BAYLOR above 50 · INCWRD below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100BAYLORINCWRDBiggest swing +1.0% INCWRD · S3 25-23rally 170 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.0% to UIW — set 3, INCWRD 25-23 BAYLOR. Grace Carroll stuffed by Sofia Grimm & Teddy-Raye Ewers. BAYLOR win probability 99%98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

INCWRD 2.2%97.8% BAYLOR

UIW wins

3-0
0.2%
3-1
0.6%
3-2
1.4%

Baylor wins

3-0
66.2%
3-1
25.5%
3-2
6.1%
INCWRD break %
34.4% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %
49.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Grace CarrollAttack error+1.0%

    Grace Carroll stuffed by Sofia Grimm & Teddy-Raye Ewers

    Set 3 · INCWRD 25-23 BAYLOR · INCWRD 1%2%

  2. 02
    Nadiya JohnsonAttack error+0.8%

    Attack error by Nadiya Johnson

    Set 4 · INCWRD 5-5 BAYLOR · INCWRD 2%3%

  3. 03

    Kill by Ksenia Rakhmanchik (set by Isabela Haggard)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 7-9 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 98%98%

  4. 04
    Bailey WarrenAttack error+0.7%

    Attack error by Bailey Warren

    Set 3 · INCWRD 24-23 BAYLOR · INCWRD 1%1%

  5. 05
    BAYLOR serverService error+0.6%

    Baylor service error

    Set 4 · INCWRD 7-7 BAYLOR · INCWRD 2%3%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ksenia Rakhmanchik (set by Isabela Haggard)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 10-13 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 98%99%

  7. 07
    BAYLOR serverService error+0.6%

    Baylor service error

    Set 4 · INCWRD 6-6 BAYLOR · INCWRD 2%3%

  8. 08

    Kill by Kitana Tuufuli (set by Victoria Hall)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 10-11 BAYLOR · INCWRD 2%2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UIWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414636.2220001010115
48726.038001132010.58.5
43311.000112301226
44119.1582102900215
4017-.143000401222
4001.000801620000
45424.04200040010.55.5
4003.0004221420002
4001.000001910000
21412-.250000000001
Team totals3526140.064343963738772
Baylorhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414534.26502141111.517.5
46210.400001101439
4001.0001111010001
3238-.1253712301436
211123.4350024002112
2528.375000000216
48226.23100020010.58.5
4001.0001122710001
40000111000001
3000010100001
2328.12500000031.54.5
2128-.125000100001
13111.18200010010.53.5
1001.000400300000
1001.000501500000
1000001100000
Team totals5320140.236487127333181298

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 INCWRD · BAYLOR 6

Set 1

10-25

Longest run 2 INCWRDBAYLOR 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 INCWRDBAYLOR 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 INCWRDBAYLOR 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 INCWRDBAYLOR 6

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = UIW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UIW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
20%2/10
2
50%9/18
38%6/16
3
40%8/20
44%7/16
4
44%7/16
42%5/12
5
58%7/12
42%5/12
6
46%6/13
0%0/7
All
48%47/97
34%25/73

Baylor

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
56%10/18
2
83%10/12
47%9/19
3
44%7/16
65%15/23
4
58%7/12
22%2/9
5
78%7/9
63%12/19
6
100%7/7
22%2/9
All
66%48/73
52%50/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

170 rallies

Rally log

#INCWRD-BAYLORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BAYLORBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.3
21-1BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.2
31-2INCWRDBAYLOR×4KillIsabela Haggardset Isabela Haggard+0.2
41-3BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBAYLOR serveraced Ashton Rogers+0.2
51-4BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.2
61-5BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillBailey Warren+0.2
72-5BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
83-5INCWRDINCWRDAttack errVictoria Davis+0.2
93-6INCWRDBAYLOR×4KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.1
103-7BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.2
113-8BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errSofia Grimmblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis+0.1
123-9BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errAlex Beauchamp+0.1
134-9BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.1
145-9INCWRDINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+0.1
155-10INCWRDBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.1
166-10BAYLORINCWRDAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+0.1
176-11INCWRDBAYLOR×5KillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.1
186-12BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.1
196-13BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillIsabela Haggardset Tehani Ulufatu+0.1
206-14BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errAlex Beauchampblk Isabela Haggard, Mya Hemmer+0.0
216-15BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.0
227-15BAYLORINCWRDAttack errIsabela Haggard+0.0
237-16INCWRDBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.0
248-16BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.0
258-17INCWRDBAYLORBad setKitana Tuufuli+0.0
268-18BAYLORBAYLORAceBAYLOR serveraced Victoria Hall+0.0
279-18BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.0
289-19INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.0
299-20BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.0
3010-20BAYLORINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+0.0
3110-21INCWRDBAYLOR×5Attack errAlex Beauchamp+0.0
3210-22BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errGabby Fish+0.0
3310-23BAYLORBAYLOR×5AceBAYLOR serveraced Isabella Ceja+0.0
3410-24BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.0
3510-25BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchik+0.0
Set 2
10-1INCWRDBAYLORAttack errKitana Tuufuli+0.1
21-1BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
31-2INCWRDBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.1
41-3BAYLORBAYLORAceBAYLOR serveraced Victoria Hall+0.1
52-3BAYLORINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+0.1
63-3INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errHalle Bills+0.2
74-3INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errNadiya Johnson+0.3
84-4INCWRDBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.2
95-4BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.2
106-4INCWRDINCWRDAttack errHalle Billsblk Gabby Fish, Sofia Grimm+0.3
116-5INCWRDBAYLOR×3KillNadiya Johnsonset Morgan Madison+0.2
126-6BAYLORBAYLOR×3AceBAYLOR serveraced Ashton Rogers+0.3
136-7BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errAlex Beauchampblk Isabela Haggard, Mya Hemmer+0.2
147-7BAYLORINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.2
157-8INCWRDBAYLORAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Isabela Haggard+0.2
168-8BAYLORINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.2
178-9INCWRDBAYLOR×4KillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.2
188-10BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Lacy Tinnell, Isabela Haggard+0.2
198-11BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Bailey Warren, Lacy Tinnell+0.2
208-12BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+0.1
219-12BAYLORINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+0.1
2210-12INCWRDINCWRDAttack errBailey Warren+0.2
2310-13INCWRDBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.1
2410-14BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillNadiya Johnson+0.1
2510-15BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.1
2610-16BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.1
2710-17BAYLORBAYLOR×5Bad setVictoria Hall+0.0
2811-17BAYLORINCWRDAttack errBailey Warrenblk Vanessa Eregie, Calissa Allison+0.0
2911-18INCWRDBAYLORAttack errKitana Tuufuli+0.0
3011-19BAYLORBAYLORAceBAYLOR serveraced Teddy-Raye Ewers+0.0
3112-19BAYLORINCWRD×4KillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+0.0
3213-19INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errLacy Tinnell+0.0
3314-19INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errBailey Warren+0.0
3415-19INCWRDINCWRD×4Bad setIsabela Haggard+0.1
3515-20INCWRDBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.1
3616-20BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
3716-21INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.1
3816-22BAYLORBAYLORAttack errSofia Grimm+0.0
3917-22BAYLORINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.0
4017-23INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.0
4118-23BAYLORINCWRDAttack errIsabela Haggardblk Vanessa Eregie+0.0
4218-24INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.0
4318-25BAYLORBAYLORAceBAYLOR serveraced Teddy-Raye Ewers+0.0
Set 3
11-0BAYLORINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+0.1
22-0INCWRDINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+0.1
32-1INCWRDBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Harley Greek+0.1
43-1BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
53-2INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.1
63-3BAYLORBAYLORAttack errKitana Tuufuliblk Bailey Warren+0.1
74-3BAYLORINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.1
84-4INCWRDBAYLORAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+0.1
94-5BAYLORBAYLORAttack errGabby Fish+0.1
105-5BAYLORINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+0.1
116-5INCWRDINCWRDAttack errMya Hemmer+0.1
126-6INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Abigail Schoene+0.1
137-6BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.1
147-7INCWRDBAYLORKillHalle Billsset Abigail Schoene+0.1
158-7BAYLORINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Victoria Hall+0.1
168-8INCWRDBAYLOR×3Serve errINCWRD server+0.1
178-9BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errVanessa Eregie+0.1
188-10BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillLacy Tinnell+0.1
199-10BAYLORINCWRD×4KillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+0.1
2010-10INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errLacy Tinnell+0.1
2111-10INCWRDINCWRD×4Bad setHarley Greek+0.2
2212-10INCWRDINCWRD×4AceINCWRD serveraced Bailey Warren+0.2
2312-11INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.1
2412-12BAYLORBAYLORAttack errCalissa Allison+0.2
2513-12BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.1
2613-13INCWRDBAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Harley Greek+0.1
2713-14BAYLORBAYLORAttack errGabby Fish+0.1
2814-14BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
2914-15INCWRDBAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Harley Greek+0.1
3015-15BAYLORINCWRD×3KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.1
3116-15INCWRDINCWRD×3AceINCWRD serveraced Morgan Madison+0.2
3217-15INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errBailey Warren+0.3
3317-16INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Abigail Schoene+0.2
3418-16BAYLORINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.2
3518-17INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.2
3618-18BAYLORBAYLORAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+0.2
3719-18BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.2
3819-19INCWRDBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Abigail Schoene+0.2
3920-19BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.2
4021-19INCWRDINCWRDAceINCWRD serveraced Tehani Ulufatu+0.4
4121-20INCWRDBAYLORAttack errKitana Tuufuliblk Lacy Tinnell, Grace Carroll+0.2
4222-20BAYLORINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+0.3
4322-21INCWRDBAYLOR×3KillGrace Carrollset Harley Greek+0.2
4422-22BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errKitana Tuufuli+0.4
4522-23BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+0.4
4623-23BAYLORINCWRD×3KillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.3
4724-23INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errBailey Warren+0.7
4825-23INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errGrace Carrollblk Sofia Grimm, Teddy-Raye Ewers+1.0
Set 4
10-1INCWRDBAYLORAttack errKitana Tuufuliblk Nadiya Johnson, Victoria Davis+0.4
21-1BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.5
31-2INCWRDBAYLOR×3KillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.4
41-3BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errSofia Grimm+0.5
51-4BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.4
62-4BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+0.3
73-4INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.6
83-5INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.4
94-5BAYLORINCWRDAttack errMya Hemmerblk Sofia Grimm+0.4
105-5INCWRDINCWRDAttack errNadiya Johnson+0.8
115-6INCWRDBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.5
126-6BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.6
136-7INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.5
147-7BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.6
157-8INCWRDBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.6
167-9BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.7
178-9BAYLORINCWRDAttack errVictoria Davisblk Vanessa Eregie, Calissa Allison+0.5
188-10INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.5
199-10BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.6
209-11INCWRDBAYLORServe errINCWRD server+0.5
2110-11BAYLORINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.6
2210-12INCWRDBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.5
2310-13BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.6
2411-13BAYLORINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.5
2511-14INCWRDBAYLOR×6KillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.5
2611-15BAYLORBAYLOR×6Attack errGabby Fishblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Mya Hemmer+0.5
2711-16BAYLORBAYLOR×6Attack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Mya Hemmer+0.3
2811-17BAYLORBAYLOR×6Bad setCalissa Allison+0.2
2911-18BAYLORBAYLOR×6KillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.1
3011-19BAYLORBAYLOR×6KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.1
3112-19BAYLORINCWRD×3KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.0
3213-19INCWRDINCWRD×3KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.1
3314-19INCWRDINCWRD×3KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Sofia Grimm+0.1
3414-20INCWRDBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.1
3514-21BAYLORBAYLORAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Mya Hemmer, Isabela Haggard+0.1
3615-21BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.0
3715-22INCWRDBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.0
3815-23BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.0
3916-23BAYLORINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Victoria Hall+0.0
4017-23INCWRDINCWRDAttack errIsabela Haggardblk Kitana Tuufuli+0.0
4117-24INCWRDBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.0
4218-24BAYLORINCWRDServe errBAYLOR server+0.0
4319-24INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.0
4419-25INCWRDBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UIW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.