Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on ESPN

Colorado def. Baylor 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Baylor 79.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 1:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Colorado won at Baylor 3-1 (25-19, 25-19, 11-25, 25-23) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Colorado's Ana Burilovic led with 13 kills.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set1234Sets
COLO252511253
BAYLOR191925231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

5 aces from Ines Losada, and Colorado needed each of them.

The match turned twice; each line shows Colorado's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Baylor went in at 79% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Colorado 19–17 Baylor

    3 straight Baylor points turned a 17–19 deficit into a 20–19 lead.

    Colorado 77% → 55%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Colorado 22–22 Baylor

    Colorado won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Colorado 66% → >99%

Baylor above 50Colorado belowMax swing 21.1%

ColoradoBaylor

Sideout %
Colorado 60.9·Baylor 61.2
Break %
Colorado 38.8·Baylor 39.1
Hitting
Colorado .127·Baylor .168
Longest run
Colorado 5·Baylor 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Baylor above 50 · Colorado below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+21.1% COLOrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 21.1% to Colorado — set 4, COLO 25-23 BAYLOR. Kill by Ines Losada (set by Maria Splawska). BAYLOR win probability 21% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

COLO 20.0%80.0% BAYLOR

Colorado wins

3-0
3.3%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
10.1%

Baylor wins

3-0
31.5%
3-1
30.2%
3-2
18.3%
COLO break %
36.6% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ines LosadaKill+21.1%

    Kill by Ines Losada (set by Maria Splawska)

    Set 4 · COLO 25-23 BAYLOR · COLO 79% → 100%

  2. 02
    Lacy TinnellAttack error+12.5%

    Attack error by Lacy Tinnell

    Set 4 · COLO 24-23 BAYLOR · COLO 66% → 79%

  3. 03

    Nadiya Johnson stuffed by Ana Burilovic & Cayla Payne

    Set 4 · COLO 21-20 BAYLOR · COLO 61% → 71%

  4. 04
    Ana BurilovicKill+10.0%

    Kill by Ana Burilovic (set by Tinons Munar Galmes)

    Set 4 · COLO 23-22 BAYLOR · COLO 66% → 76%

  5. 05

    Kill by Victoria Davis (set by Isabela Haggard)

    Set 4 · COLO 23-23 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 24% → 34%

  6. 06

    Kill by Victoria Davis (set by Isabela Haggard)

    Set 4 · COLO 19-20 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 37% → 45%

  7. 07
    Maria SplawskaAttack error+8.6%

    Attack error by Maria Splawska

    Set 4 · COLO 19-19 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 28% → 37%

  8. 08
    Ana BurilovicKill+8.5%

    Kill by Ana Burilovic (set by Jenna Ylivainio)

    Set 4 · COLO 22-21 BAYLOR · COLO 65% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410631.12905530111.516.5
413638.18411390031.515.5
46315.2003000016410
46323.130001300217
44416.000000001226
4002.0002910501223
4011-1.000402810000
4000–000110000
4000–001000000
4000–000400000
Team totals3923126.127377123334161286
Baylorhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411932.06300480111.512.5
410216.5000000004212
410725.12000030010.510.5
4539.222000100427
4306.500391260132.56.5
4000–011910001
49630.10020011132.511.5
4000–112900001
4000–2011730000
4000–001000000
1011-1.000000000000
1000–200000000
Team totals4828119.168463115473161186

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Colorado vs Baylor

Season series · Colorado leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 COLO · BAYLOR 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 COLOBAYLOR 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 COLOBAYLOR 3

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 2 COLOBAYLOR 5

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 COLOBAYLOR 3

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = Colorado leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Colorado

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
47%8/17
2
91%10/11
41%7/17
3
56%9/16
18%2/11
4
60%9/15
18%2/11
5
54%7/13
50%8/16
6
54%7/13
46%6/13
All
61%53/87
39%33/85

Baylor

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
36%5/14
2
83%10/12
33%5/15
3
75%9/12
33%5/15
4
64%9/14
36%5/14
5
64%7/11
47%7/15
6
44%7/16
50%7/14
All
61%52/85
39%34/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#COLO-BAYLORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BAYLORCOLO×4KillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.3
22-0COLOCOLO×4BlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Maria Splawska, Ana Burilovic+2.1
33-0COLOCOLO×4AceColoradoaced Morgan Madison+2.2
44-0COLOCOLO×4AceColoradoaced Jules Hernandez+2.2
54-1COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.3
65-1BAYLORCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.6
75-2COLOBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+1.3
85-3BAYLORBAYLORAttack errLily Dwinell+2.1
96-3BAYLORCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+1.6
107-3COLOCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+2.4
117-4COLOBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+1.3
127-5BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Tehani Ulufatu+2.2
137-6BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedAna Burilovicblk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard+2.3
148-6BAYLORCOLO×5KillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+1.7
159-6COLOCOLO×5Attack errBailey Warren+2.6
1610-6COLOCOLO×5AceColorado+2.5
1711-6COLOCOLO×5KillInes Losadaset Isabela Haggard+2.4
1812-6COLOCOLO×5BlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Ines Losada+2.1
1912-7COLOBAYLORBlockedCayla Payneblk Bailey Warren+1.0
2013-7BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.4
2113-8COLOBAYLORKillIsabela Haggardset Bailey Warren+1.0
2213-9BAYLORBAYLORBlockedMaria Splawskablk Bailey Warren, Lacy Tinnell+1.9
2314-9BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.7
2415-9COLOCOLOBad setIsabela Haggard+2.0
2515-10COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.9
2616-10BAYLORCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Tinons Munar Galmes+1.4
2717-10COLOCOLOAceColorado+1.5
2817-11COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+0.6
2918-11BAYLORCOLOBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Maria Splawska, Lily Dwinell+1.0
3018-12COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Morgan Madison+0.5
3119-12BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+0.9
3219-13COLOBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.5
3320-13BAYLORCOLOAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+0.8
3420-14COLOBAYLOR×3Serve errColorado+0.4
3520-15BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.9
3620-16BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errTinons Munar Galmes+1.4
3721-16BAYLORCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.6
3821-17COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Morgan Madison+0.8
3922-17BAYLORCOLO×3KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.5
4023-17COLOCOLO×3KillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.1
4124-17COLOCOLO×3KillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+0.4
4224-18COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard·
4324-19BAYLORBAYLORAceBayloraced Tinons Munar Galmes+0.1
4425-19BAYLORCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+0.2
Set 2
11-0COLOCOLO×3Attack errNadiya Johnson+3.0
22-0COLOCOLO×3BlockedBailey Warrenblk Ana Burilovic, Maria Splawska+3.2
33-0COLOCOLO×3AceColoradoaced Morgan Madison+3.3
43-1COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
54-1BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.3
64-2COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.0
75-2BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+2.4
86-2COLOCOLOAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+3.5
96-3COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
107-3BAYLORCOLOAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+2.5
117-4COLOBAYLOR×3Serve errColorado+2.0
127-5BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+3.3
137-6BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errCayla Payne+3.4
148-6BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.6
158-7COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+2.3
169-7BAYLORCOLO×4Attack errBailey Warren+2.7
1710-7COLOCOLO×4BlockedBailey Warrenblk Maria Splawska, Lily Dwinell+4.0
1811-7COLOCOLO×4KillInes Losadaset Maria Splawska+3.9
1912-7COLOCOLO×4KillInes Losadaset Maria Splawska+3.6
2012-8COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+1.9
2112-9BAYLORBAYLORBlockedInes Losadablk Bailey Warren, Lacy Tinnell+3.3
2213-9BAYLORCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+2.8
2313-10COLOBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+2.2
2414-10BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+2.9
2514-11COLOBAYLORAttack errCayla Payne+2.2
2615-11BAYLORCOLOAttack errVictoria Davis+2.9
2716-11COLOCOLOBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Jenna Ylivainio+3.7
2816-12COLOBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+1.8
2916-13BAYLORBAYLORBlockedCayla Payneblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik+3.4
3017-13BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+3.1
3118-13COLOCOLOBlockedVictoria Davisblk Cayla Payne+3.7
3218-14COLOBAYLORKillIsabela Haggard+1.6
3319-14BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.5
3419-15COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.5
3519-16BAYLORBAYLORBlockedMaria Splawskablk Bailey Warren, Lacy Tinnell+3.2
3620-16BAYLORCOLOKillInes Losadaset Ana Burilovic+3.3
3721-16COLOCOLOBlockedGrace Carrollblk Maria Splawska, Ines Losada+3.4
3821-17COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Harley Greek+1.2
3922-17BAYLORCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+2.2
4023-17COLOCOLOAceColoradoaced Morgan Madison+1.6
4123-18COLOBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+0.3
4224-18BAYLORCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Lily Dwinell+0.8
4324-19COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.1
4425-19BAYLORCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+0.4
Set 3
10-1BAYLORBAYLORAttack errLily Dwinell+2.6
21-1BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+1.8
32-1COLOCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+3.0
42-2COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+1.9
53-2BAYLORCOLOAttack errNadiya Johnson+2.1
63-3COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.9
74-3BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.2
84-4COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
94-5BAYLORBAYLORAceBayloraced Avery Bolles+2.9
105-5BAYLORCOLOBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Cayla Payne, Jenna Ylivainio+2.0
115-6COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.0
125-7BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.8
136-7BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+1.9
146-8COLOBAYLOR×5KillVictoria Davisset Maria Splawska+1.9
156-9BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedInes Losadablk Isabela Haggard+2.5
166-10BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errInes Losada+2.1
176-11BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errAna Burilovic+1.7
186-12BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedInes Losadablk Isabela Haggard, Lacy Tinnell+1.3
197-12BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+0.7
207-13COLOBAYLOR×3Attack errInes Losada+0.8
217-14BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.9
227-15BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.6
238-15BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+0.2
248-16COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+0.3
258-17BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.3
269-17BAYLORCOLOAttack errNadiya Johnson+0.1
279-18COLOBAYLOR×5KillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+0.2
289-19BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.1
299-20BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedAna Burilovicblk Nadiya Johnson, Victoria Davis+0.1
309-21BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard·
319-22BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard·
3210-22BAYLORCOLOAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik·
3310-23COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard·
3411-23BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor·
3511-24COLOBAYLORServe errColorado·
3611-25BAYLORBAYLORAttack errAna Burilovic·
Set 4
10-1COLOBAYLOR×3Serve errColorado+2.5
20-2BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errAna Burilovic+3.5
30-3BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedLily Dwinellblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis+3.1
41-3BAYLORCOLOKillLily Dwinellset Jenna Ylivainio+2.1
52-3COLOCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+3.6
62-4COLOBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.4
73-4BAYLORCOLOAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+2.5
83-5COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.5
93-6BAYLORBAYLORBlockedAna Burilovicblk Isabela Haggard, Victoria Davis+3.4
104-6BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.2
114-7COLOBAYLORKillIsabela Haggardset Bailey Warren+2.3
124-8BAYLORBAYLORAttack errInes Losada+2.9
135-8BAYLORCOLO×4KillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+1.8
146-8COLOCOLO×4Attack errBailey Warren+3.3
157-8COLOCOLO×4Attack errLacy Tinnell+4.0
168-8COLOCOLO×4BlockedBailey Warrenblk Maria Splawska, Jenna Ylivainio+4.7
178-9COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+3.2
188-10BAYLORBAYLORAceBaylor+4.4
199-10BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+2.9
2010-10COLOCOLOAceColoradoaced Bailey Warren+5.1
2110-11COLOBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+3.4
2211-11BAYLORCOLOAttack errNadiya Johnson+3.6
2312-11COLOCOLOKillMaria Splawskaset Jenna Ylivainio+6.0
2412-12COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+3.8
2513-12BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+4.3
2613-13COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+4.0
2714-13BAYLORCOLOServe errBaylor+4.5
2814-14COLOBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+4.1
2915-14BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+4.7
3015-15COLOBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+4.4
3116-15BAYLORCOLOKillCayla Payneset Jenna Ylivainio+5.0
3216-16COLOBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+4.6
3317-16BAYLORCOLOKillInes Losadaset Jenna Ylivainio+5.3
3418-16COLOCOLOAttack errNadiya Johnson+8.2
3518-17COLOBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+4.7
3619-17BAYLORCOLOBlockedLacy Tinnellblk Maria Splawska+6.1
3719-18COLOBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+4.9
3819-19BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errMaria Splawska+8.6
3919-20BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+8.8
4020-20BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+6.0
4121-20COLOCOLOBlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Ana Burilovic, Cayla Payne+10.8
4221-21COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+6.8
4322-21BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Jenna Ylivainio+8.5
4422-22COLOBAYLORServe errColorado+7.7
4523-22BAYLORCOLOKillAna Burilovicset Tinons Munar Galmes+10.0
4623-23COLOBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+9.1
4724-23BAYLORCOLOAttack errLacy Tinnell+12.5
4825-23COLOCOLOKillInes Losadaset Maria Splawska+21.1

Score shown after each rally, Colorado first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).