Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Baylor def. Houston 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Baylor 92.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Baylor beat visiting Houston 3-2 (21-25, 21-25, 25-16, 25-19, 15-8) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Baylor's Ksenia Rakhmanchik led with 23 kills, and Morgan Madison added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
HOU2525161982
BAYLOR21212525153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.417 on 48 swings: Ksenia Rakhmanchik and Baylor edged Houston.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Baylor's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Baylor at 92%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Houston 2–1 Baylor

    Down 1–2, Baylor scored 3 straight to lead 4–2.

    Baylor 66% → 85%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Houston 3–8 Baylor

    4 straight Houston points cut a 3–8 deficit to 7–8.

    Baylor 97% → 81%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Houston 7–8 Baylor

    Up 8–7, Baylor scored 5 straight to make it 13–7.

    Baylor 81% → >99%

Baylor above 50Houston belowMax swing 8.5%

HoustonBaylor

Sideout %
Houston 54.7·Baylor 62.8
Break %
Houston 37.2·Baylor 45.3
Hitting
Houston .158·Baylor .315
Longest run
Houston 6·Baylor 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Baylor above 50 · Houston below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+8.5% HOUrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 8.5% to Houston — set 5, HOU 1-0 BAYLOR. Ace by Kalei Edson on Morgan Madison. BAYLOR win probability 75% → 67%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOU 9.3%90.7% BAYLOR

Houston wins

3-0
1.2%
3-1
2.8%
3-2
5.3%

Baylor wins

3-0
45.7%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
13.5%
HOU break %
34.1% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %
44.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kalei EdsonAce+8.5%

    Ace by Kalei Edson on Morgan Madison

    Set 5 · HOU 1-0 BAYLOR · HOU 25% → 33%

  2. 02
    Kamille GibsonAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Kamille Gibson

    Set 5 · HOU 2-3 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 71% → 78%

  3. 03
    Isabela HaggardAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Isabela Haggard

    Set 5 · HOU 7-8 BAYLOR · HOU 12% → 19%

  4. 04

    Noemi Despaigne stuffed by Nadiya Johnson & Victoria Davis

    Set 5 · HOU 2-4 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 78% → 85%

  5. 05
    Noemi DespaigneAttack error+6.7%

    Attack error by Noemi Despaigne

    Set 5 · HOU 7-10 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 86% → 93%

  6. 06
    HoustonAce+6.5%

    Houston ace on Ksenia Rakhmanchik

    Set 2 · HOU 21-18 BAYLOR · HOU 38% → 45%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kamille Gibson (set by Kalei Edson)

    Set 5 · HOU 2-1 BAYLOR · HOU 29% → 34%

  8. 08
    Tara GreenberryAttack error+5.6%

    Attack error by Tara Greenberry

    Set 5 · HOU 3-6 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 85% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5161041.14605310010.521.5
516835.2290345110120
5161450.0400007110117
55210.300100202027
55211.27310010111.56.5
4204.5004211700003
5000–020410002
5000–1112000001
5001.000000430000
4000–000000000
2000–711000001
1000–000000000
Team totals6036152.15852131051652693
Baylorhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523348.4170138602125
58524.12500000254.512.5
57314.2862002006310
5114.0004200100132.53.5
2112.000000001012
2000–000320000
512130.3670003100012
5000–121700002
5003.0002001530000
5000–100000000
4000–031201014
3305.600000100425
Team totals5514130.3154865511352015107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 HOU · BAYLOR 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 6 HOUBAYLOR 5

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 HOUBAYLOR 2

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 HOUBAYLOR 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 HOUBAYLOR 4

Set 5

8-15

Longest run 4 HOUBAYLOR 5

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = Houston leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Houston

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
33%5/15
2
52%11/21
48%10/21
3
53%10/19
29%4/14
4
63%10/16
41%7/17
5
60%9/15
41%7/17
6
50%7/14
20%2/10
All
55%58/106
37%35/94

Baylor

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
65%15/23
2
50%11/22
27%4/15
3
67%10/15
39%7/18
4
63%10/16
44%8/18
5
64%9/14
41%7/17
6
73%8/11
47%7/15
All
63%59/94
45%48/106

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#HOU-BAYLORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.5
21-1BAYLORHOU×6KillSydney Jonesset Alexis Roberson+0.6
32-1HOUHOU×6KillNoemi Despaigne+1.1
43-1HOUHOU×6KillAlexis Roberson+1.3
54-1HOUHOU×6BlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Alexis Roberson+1.4
65-1HOUHOU×6AceHoustonaced Jules Hernandez+1.5
76-1HOUHOU×6Bad setKsenia Rakhmanchik+1.6
86-2HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Victoria Davis+0.8
97-2BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.0
107-3HOUBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.8
117-4BAYLORBAYLORBlockedKamille Gibsonblk MJ McCurdy+1.4
128-4BAYLORHOUBlockedVictoria Davisblk Noemi Despaigne+1.1
138-5HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.8
149-5BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.1
1510-5HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
1610-6HOUBAYLOR×5KillIsabela Haggardset Tehani Ulufatu+0.8
1710-7BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errSydney Jones+1.5
1810-8BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedSydney Jonesblk Nadiya Johnson+1.5
1910-9BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errKamille Gibson+1.5
2010-10BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedTara Greenberryblk Mya Hemmer+1.5
2111-10BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.0
2212-10HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
2312-11HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.0
2413-11BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.2
2514-11HOUHOUAttack errMya Hemmer+2.1
2614-12HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.0
2715-12BAYLORHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
2816-12HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigne+2.1
2916-13HOUBAYLORServe errHouston+0.9
3017-13BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
3118-13HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.9
3218-14HOUBAYLORServe errHouston+0.7
3318-15BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.6
3419-15BAYLORHOUAttack errNadiya Johnson+1.5
3519-16HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.9
3620-16BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.5
3721-16HOUHOUKillShannon Dworaczyk+1.8
3821-17HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Morgan Madison+0.5
3922-17BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.1
4022-18HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+0.4
4122-19BAYLORBAYLORAttack errKamille Gibson+1.2
4223-19BAYLORHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.5
4323-20HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.5
4424-20BAYLORHOUKillShannon Dworaczyk+1.3
4524-21HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.3
4625-21BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.9
Set 2
11-0BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.5
21-1HOUBAYLORAttack errSydney Jones+1.3
31-2BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davis+2.1
42-2BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
53-2HOUHOUAceHoustonaced Jules Hernandez+2.5
63-3HOUBAYLORAttack errNoemi Despaigne+1.4
74-3BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
84-4HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.5
95-4BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
105-5HOUBAYLORServe errHouston+1.5
116-5BAYLORHOUAttack errBailey Warren+1.8
126-6HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Ksenia Rakhmanchik+1.6
136-7BAYLORBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Morgan Madison+2.5
147-7BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.6
158-7HOUHOUKillSydney Jonesset Tara Greenberry+3.1
168-8HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.7
179-8BAYLORHOUAttack errNadiya Johnson+2.1
189-9HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.8
1910-9BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.2
2010-10HOUBAYLORAttack errNoemi Despaigne+1.9
2111-10BAYLORHOU×4Serve errBaylor+2.3
2212-10HOUHOU×4KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.0
2313-10HOUHOU×4AceHoustonaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+4.4
2414-10HOUHOU×4BlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Kamille Gibson+4.4
2514-11HOUBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.0
2615-11BAYLORHOUServe errBaylor+2.9
2715-12HOUBAYLORServe errHouston+2.0
2816-12BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.0
2916-13HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.1
3016-14BAYLORBAYLORKillMya Hemmer+4.1
3117-14BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.4
3218-14HOUHOUAttack errNadiya Johnson+5.0
3318-15HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
3418-16BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Victoria Davis+4.3
3519-16BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.8
3619-17HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.5
3719-18BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+5.2
3820-18BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.3
3921-18HOUHOUAceHoustonaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+6.5
4021-19HOUBAYLORServe errHouston+2.5
4122-19BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.4
4223-19HOUHOUBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Tara Greenberry+5.0
4323-20HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.2
4424-20BAYLORHOUServe errBaylor+2.8
4524-21HOUBAYLORAttack errNoemi Despaigne+0.6
4625-21BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.9
Set 3
11-0HOUHOUAceShannon Dworaczykaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+3.3
21-1HOUBAYLORServe errShannon Dworaczyk+1.9
32-1BAYLORHOUAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+2.2
42-2HOUBAYLOR×3Serve errSydney Jones+1.9
52-3BAYLORBAYLOR×3AceBayloraced Mattie Casale+3.0
62-4BAYLORBAYLOR×3AceBayloraced Mattie Casale+2.6
73-4BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.6
83-5HOUBAYLORBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Isabela Haggard+1.5
93-6BAYLORBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.2
104-6BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.3
114-7HOUBAYLORServe errKamille Gibson+1.3
125-7BAYLORHOU×3KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
136-7HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.8
147-7HOUHOU×3AceLily Barron+3.5
157-8HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.1
168-8BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.4
178-9HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.2
188-10BAYLORBAYLORAttack errAlexis Roberson+3.2
199-10BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
209-11HOUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
2110-11BAYLORHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.1
2211-11HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.2
2312-11HOUHOU×3AceSydney Jonesaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+5.1
2412-12HOUBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.9
2512-13BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+4.5
2612-14BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+3.9
2713-14BAYLORHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.4
2813-15HOUBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+2.4
2913-16BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+3.2
3013-17BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard+2.3
3114-17BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.1
3214-18HOUBAYLOR×3Attack errNoemi Despaigne+1.4
3314-19BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errKamille Gibson+1.4
3414-20BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.8
3515-20BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.3
3615-21HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.4
3716-21BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.2
3816-22HOUBAYLOR×4KillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+0.3
3916-23BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedSydney Jonesblk Lacy Tinnell, Nadiya Johnson+0.2
4016-24BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedSydney Jonesblk Lacy Tinnell, Nadiya Johnson·
4116-25BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillLacy Tinnell·
Set 4
10-1BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedSydney Jonesblk Nadiya Johnson+3.6
20-2BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errAlexis Roberson+3.1
30-3BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Noemi Despaigne+2.6
40-4BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.1
51-4BAYLORHOU×3BlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Alexis Roberson, Sydney Jones+1.2
62-4HOUHOU×3KillAlexis Roberson+2.5
73-4HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+3.3
83-5HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.0
93-6BAYLORBAYLORBlockedKamille Gibsonblk Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson+2.8
104-6BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
115-6HOUHOUAceSydney Jonesaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+3.5
125-7HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.1
136-7BAYLORHOUAttack errVictoria Davis+2.3
146-8HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.2
157-8BAYLORHOUServe errBaylor+2.4
167-9HOUBAYLORAttack errNoemi Despaigne+2.3
177-10BAYLORBAYLORAttack errNoemi Despaigne+3.3
188-10BAYLORHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.9
199-10HOUHOUAceLily Barronaced Bailey Warren+4.0
209-11HOUBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+2.5
2110-11BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.7
2210-12HOUBAYLOR×4Attack errSydney Jones+2.6
2310-13BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errSydney Jones+3.6
2410-14BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Kamille Gibson+2.7
2510-15BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Lily Barron+1.9
2611-15BAYLORHOUServe errBaylor+0.9
2711-16HOUBAYLORBlockedKamille Gibsonblk Lacy Tinnell, Ksenia Rakhmanchik+1.1
2811-17BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchik+1.2
2912-17BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.5
3012-18HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.7
3112-19BAYLORBAYLORBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Isabela Haggard, Victoria Davis+0.6
3213-19BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+0.2
3313-20HOUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.3
3414-20BAYLORHOU×4KillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+0.2
3515-20HOUHOU×4AceKamille Gibsonaced Morgan Madison+0.5
3616-20HOUHOU×4KillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+1.0
3717-20HOUHOU×4BlockedVictoria Davisblk Tara Greenberry+2.0
3817-21HOUBAYLORServe errKamille Gibson+1.8
3918-21BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+1.2
4018-22HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+1.7
4119-22BAYLORHOUKillSydney Jonesset Kalei Edson+1.0
4219-23HOUBAYLOR×3KillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.6
4319-24BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Taylor Crain+0.9
4419-25BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedSydney Jonesblk Nadiya Johnson, Lacy Tinnell+1.7
Set 5
11-0HOUHOUAceKalei Edsonaced Morgan Madison+8.5
21-1HOUBAYLORServe errKalei Edson+4.8
32-1BAYLORHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Kalei Edson+5.8
42-2HOUBAYLOR×3Attack errNoemi Despaigne+5.0
52-3BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errKamille Gibson+7.9
62-4BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Nadiya Johnson, Victoria Davis+6.8
73-4BAYLORHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Kalei Edson+4.1
83-5HOUBAYLOR×4KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+4.1
93-6BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errTara Greenberry+5.6
103-7BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard+4.0
113-8BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedKamille Gibsonblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis+2.6
124-8BAYLORHOU×4KillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+1.1
135-8HOUHOU×4AceKamille Gibsonaced Ksenia Rakhmanchik+3.0
146-8HOUHOU×4AceKamille Gibsonaced Morgan Madison+4.9
157-8HOUHOU×4Attack errIsabela Haggard+7.6
167-9HOUBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+5.3
177-10BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errNoemi Despaigne+6.7
187-11BAYLORBAYLOR×5AceBayloraced Mattie Casale+4.2
197-12BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errNoemi Despaigne+2.1
207-13BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.8
218-13BAYLORHOUKillTara Greenberryset Kalei Edson+0.1
228-14HOUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.3
238-15BAYLORBAYLORAttack errSydney Jones+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Houston first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).