FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

0:3

HomeCUSA

Missouri St. def. Idaho St. 3–0

(25-18, 25-20, 27-25)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ID ST	18	20	25	0
MO ST	25	25	27	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MO ST above 50 · ID ST below

Biggest swing: 5.4% to Idaho St. — set 3, ID ST 24-23 MO ST. Kill by Mia Walsh (set by Jenna Werbelow). MO ST win probability 91% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ID ST 39.9%60.1% MO ST

Idaho St. wins

3-0

8.7%

3-1

14.5%

3-2

16.6%

Missouri St. wins

3-0

17.3%

3-1

23.0%

3-2

19.9%

ID ST break %: 40.2% vs this opp
MO ST break %: 42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mia WalshKill+5.4%
Kill by Mia Walsh (set by Jenna Werbelow)
Set 3 · ID ST 24-23 MO ST · ID ST 9% → 14%
02
Annelie WilsonAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Annelie Wilson
Set 3 · ID ST 25-26 MO ST · MO ST 90% → 95%
03
Lexi WeinbergKill+5.0%
Kill by Lexi Weinberg (set by Hannah Gardner)
Set 3 · ID ST 25-27 MO ST · MO ST 95% → 100%
04
Lexi WeinbergKill+4.5%
Kill by Lexi Weinberg (set by Hannah Gardner)
Set 2 · ID ST 19-21 MO ST · MO ST 79% → 84%
05
Annelie WilsonKill+4.3%
Kill by Annelie Wilson (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 2 · ID ST 19-19 MO ST · ID ST 19% → 24%
06
Rilynn FinleyAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Rilynn Finley
Set 3 · ID ST 23-23 MO ST · ID ST 5% → 9%
07
Hannah GardnerKill+3.8%
Kill by Hannah Gardner (set by Halle Rillie)
Set 3 · ID ST 24-24 MO ST · MO ST 86% → 90%
08
Rilynn FinleyAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Rilynn Finley
Set 3 · ID ST 25-24 MO ST · ID ST 10% → 14%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Idaho St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
26Jaydin WattsMB	3	5	0	15	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	8.5
17Annelie WilsonOH	3	6	4	20	.100	2	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	7
21Mia WalshOH	3	6	7	27	-.037	0	0	1	5	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Tana HowardOPP	3	4	7	21	-.143	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
16Isabella BeattyMB	3	1	3	5	-.400	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Nora WaddoupsS	2	1	0	2	.500	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
18Kadence MarshS	3	1	1	5	.000	12	2	1	13	0	0	2	1	4
4Jenna WerbelowDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	6	1	0	0	0	1
3Abby McClainOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Aspen BoiceL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
22Daelyn HarrisMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Brooke ChristoffersenOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Claudia AntcliffL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	22	99	.040	21	5	5	41	4	1	12	7	63

Missouri St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Rilynn FinleyOH	3	14	10	36	.111	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	15
18Hannah GardnerS	3	12	2	25	.400	13	0	2	4	0	0	2	1	13
1Chloe JuddMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	2	2	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
12Hannah RedrowMB	3	3	2	11	.091	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
2Halle RillieS	3	1	0	2	.500	20	0	3	5	0	0	0	0	1
3Kya JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	16	1	0	0	0	0
7Lexi WeinbergOPP	3	7	0	15	.467	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
4Jenna WaltersOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
8Brooke EslingerDS	3	1	0	3	.333	3	1	2	11	0	0	0	0	2
10Riley OurthDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	0	1
15Avery SandsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	18	114	.237	39	4	13	42	5	1	12	7	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ID ST · MO ST 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 ID STMO ST 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 ID STMO ST 5

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 4 ID STMO ST 3

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Idaho St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%9/19	30%3/10
2	47%9/19	18%2/11
3	64%7/11	36%5/14
4	60%6/10	22%2/9
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	75%6/8	50%6/12
All	57%43/76	31%20/64

Missouri St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	50%8/16
2	60%9/15	47%8/17
3	89%8/9	43%6/14
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	55%6/11	33%3/9
6	60%6/10	33%3/9
All	69%44/64	43%33/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	ID ST-MO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+2.4
2	0-2	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+2.4
3	1-2	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Nora Waddoups	set Annelie Wilson	+1.6
4	1-3	ID ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.7
5	1-4	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Brooke Eslinger	set Hannah Redrow	+2.3
6	1-5	MO ST	MO ST×4	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+2.1
7	1-6	MO ST	MO ST×4	Attack err	Mia Walsh	blk Hannah Redrow, Rilynn Finley	+1.8
8	2-6	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
9	2-7	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+1.3
10	3-7	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
11	3-8	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.3
12	4-8	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.1
13	4-9	ID ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Brooke Eslinger	+1.3
14	4-10	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+1.5
15	4-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Annelie Wilson	+1.2
16	5-11	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Kadence Marsh	set Jenna Walters	+0.6
17	6-11	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Kadence Marsh	+1.2
18	6-12	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.1
19	7-12	MO ST	ID ST×3	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.8
20	8-12	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Chloe Judd	blk Jaydin Watts, Kadence Marsh	+1.6
21	9-12	ID ST	ID ST×3	Ace	ID ST server	aced Jenna Walters	+2.0
22	9-13	ID ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.7
23	9-14	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+2.0
24	9-15	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+1.5
25	10-15	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+0.8
26	10-16	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Tana Howard	blk Rilynn Finley, Chloe Judd	+1.0
27	11-16	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts	+0.7
28	11-17	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Kadence Marsh		+1.0
29	12-17	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.7
30	12-18	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.0
31	13-18	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Kadence Marsh	+0.6
32	13-19	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+0.9
33	14-19	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+0.6
34	15-19	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Jenna Walters	+1.3
35	15-20	ID ST	MO ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.3
36	16-20	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+0.8
37	16-21	ID ST	MO ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.2
38	16-22	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.0
39	17-22	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Kadence Marsh	+0.3
40	17-23	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.5
41	18-23	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Hannah Gardner	blk Tana Howard, Jaydin Watts	+0.2
42	18-24	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+0.4
43	18-25	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+2.3
2	1-1	ID ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.6
3	1-2	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.3
4	1-3	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Mia Walsh	+2.2
5	2-3	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Kadence Marsh		+1.5
6	2-4	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+1.6
7	3-4	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Hannah Redrow		+1.5
8	3-5	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
9	3-6	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Tana Howard	blk Jenna Walters, Hannah Redrow	+2.1
10	4-6	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.4
11	4-7	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.5
12	4-8	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Lexi Weinberg, Chloe Judd	+2.0
13	5-8	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Kadence Marsh	+1.2
14	6-8	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Jenna Walters		+2.1
15	6-9	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
16	6-10	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+2.0
17	7-10	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Hannah Gardner		+1.3
18	7-11	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Hannah Gardner	+1.4
19	8-11	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+1.3
20	8-12	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Halle Rillie	set Brooke Eslinger	+1.5
21	9-12	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.3
22	9-13	ID ST	MO ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.5
23	10-13	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Kadence Marsh	+1.3
24	10-14	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Hannah Gardner	+1.5
25	10-15	MO ST	MO ST	Ace	MO ST server	aced Team	+1.8
26	11-15	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.0
27	12-15	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Team	+1.8
28	12-16	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
29	13-16	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.3
30	13-17	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+1.6
31	14-17	MO ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Kadence Marsh	+1.3
32	15-17	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Annelie Wilson	+2.5
33	16-17	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Chloe Judd		+3.1
34	16-18	ID ST	MO ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+2.5
35	17-18	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Jaydin Watts, Kadence Marsh	+2.3
36	17-19	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+2.7
37	18-19	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+2.4
38	19-19	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Halle Rillie	+4.3
39	19-20	ID ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+3.3
40	19-21	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+4.5
41	19-22	MO ST	MO ST×5	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+3.6
42	19-23	MO ST	MO ST×5	Bad set	Kadence Marsh		+2.3
43	19-24	MO ST	MO ST×5	Attack err	Tana Howard		+1.0
44	20-24	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+0.2
45	20-25	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Brooke Eslinger	+0.4
Set 3
1	0-1	MO ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Halle Rillie	+1.3
2	1-1	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Nora Waddoups	+0.9
3	1-2	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+0.9
4	2-2	MO ST	ID ST×4	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+0.9
5	3-2	ID ST	ID ST×4	Ace	ID ST server	aced Kya Johnson	+1.4
6	4-2	ID ST	ID ST×4	Ace	ID ST server	aced Team	+1.4
7	5-2	ID ST	ID ST×4	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+1.4
8	5-3	ID ST	MO ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+0.9
9	6-3	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.0
10	7-3	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+1.4
11	7-4	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+0.8
12	8-4	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.0
13	8-5	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.8
14	9-5	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+1.0
15	10-5	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Jenna Walters	blk Tana Howard, Jaydin Watts	+1.3
16	10-6	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+0.7
17	11-6	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Nora Waddoups	+0.9
18	11-7	ID ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Chloe Judd	set Halle Rillie	+0.7
19	11-8	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Tana Howard		+1.3
20	11-9	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.5
21	12-9	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.2
22	13-9	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley	blk Tana Howard, Isabella Beatty	+1.5
23	13-10	ID ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Tana Howard		+0.9
24	13-11	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Kya Johnson	+1.5
25	13-12	MO ST	MO ST×3	Ace	MO ST server	aced Jenna Werbelow	+1.7
26	14-12	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.4
27	14-13	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Redrow	set Halle Rillie	+1.2
28	14-14	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.0
29	15-14	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.5
30	15-15	ID ST	MO ST	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.4
31	15-16	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Isabella Beatty	blk Hannah Redrow	+2.1
32	16-16	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.5
33	17-16	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Hannah Redrow	blk Jaydin Watts	+2.3
34	17-17	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+1.6
35	18-17	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.7
36	19-17	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts		+2.5
37	19-18	ID ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Hannah Gardner		+1.5
38	19-19	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Tana Howard	blk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner	+2.6
39	19-20	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Tana Howard		+2.8
40	20-20	MO ST	ID ST	Serve err	MO ST server		+1.9
41	20-21	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Jenna Walters	set Halle Rillie	+2.2
42	21-21	MO ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+2.1
43	21-22	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Kya Johnson	+2.5
44	21-23	MO ST	MO ST	Attack err	Mia Walsh	blk Hannah Redrow, Hannah Gardner	+3.3
45	22-23	MO ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Daelyn Harris	set Nora Waddoups	+1.6
46	23-23	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+4.0
47	24-23	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Jenna Werbelow	+5.4
48	24-24	ID ST	MO ST	Kill	Hannah Gardner	set Halle Rillie	+3.8
49	25-24	MO ST	ID ST	Attack err	Rilynn Finley		+3.8
50	25-25	ID ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Rilynn Finley	set Hannah Gardner	+3.8
51	25-26	MO ST	MO ST×3	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+5.2
52	25-27	MO ST	MO ST×3	Kill	Lexi Weinberg	set Hannah Gardner	+5.0

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.