FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

0:3

HomeSUMMIT-LEAGUE

North Dakota St. def. Idaho St. 3–0

(25-22, 25-20, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ID ST	22	20	18	0
ND ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ND ST above 50 · ID ST below

Biggest swing: 4.8% to North Dakota St. — set 1, ID ST 21-23 ND ST. Attack error by Mia Walsh. ND ST win probability 63% → 67%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ID ST 43.9%56.1% ND ST

Idaho St. wins

3-0

10.1%

3-1

16.2%

3-2

17.6%

North Dakota St. wins

3-0

15.2%

3-1

21.3%

3-2

19.6%

ID ST break %: 43.5% vs this opp
ND ST break %: 44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mia WalshAttack error+4.8%
Attack error by Mia Walsh
Set 1 · ID ST 21-23 ND ST · ND ST 63% → 67%
02
Lauren JansenKill+4.4%
Kill by Lauren Jansen (set by Rya Borer)
Set 1 · ID ST 21-24 ND ST · ND ST 67% → 72%
03
Emma TallmanKill+4.3%
Kill by Emma Tallman (set by Sarah Pfiffner)
Set 1 · ID ST 20-22 ND ST · ND ST 62% → 66%
04
Kendall WorwaKill+4.3%
Kill by Kendall Worwa (set by Sarah Pfiffner)
Set 2 · ID ST 18-20 ND ST · ND ST 77% → 81%
05
Emma TallmanAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Emma Tallman
Set 2 · ID ST 18-18 ND ST · ID ST 23% → 27%
06
Emma TallmanKill+3.9%
Kill by Emma Tallman (set by Rya Borer)
Set 1 · ID ST 19-21 ND ST · ND ST 61% → 65%
07
Lauren JansenKill+3.7%
Kill by Lauren Jansen (set by Sarah Pfiffner)
Set 1 · ID ST 15-17 ND ST · ND ST 59% → 63%
08
Lauren JansenKill+3.7%
Kill by Lauren Jansen (set by Rya Borer)
Set 2 · ID ST 18-21 ND ST · ND ST 81% → 85%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Idaho St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Abby McClainOH	3	4	5	17	-.059	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	5
26Jaydin WattsMB	3	1	0	11	.091	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	4
21Mia WalshOH	3	3	5	25	-.080	0	0	0	4	1	1	0.5	3.5
9Nora WaddoupsS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	0	8	0	3	1.5	1.5
4Jenna WerbelowDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	2	0	0	0
16Isabella BeattyMB	2	5	2	11	.273	1	0	2	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
1Aspen BoiceL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	15	0	0	0	1
13Ava BricknerOH	2	3	0	17	.176	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	4
17Annelie WilsonOH	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	1	3	3	1	0.5	2.5
8Tana HowardOPP	2	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Kadence MarshS	2	1	0	2	.500	8	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
2Claudia AntcliffL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
11Ashlyn SmithMB	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
Team totals		23	15	101	.079	20	2	7	43	7	18	9	60

North Dakota St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Lauren JansenOH	3	15	4	36	.306	1	0	2	10	2	0	0	0	15
3Arianna BlohmMB	3	9	5	23	.174	0	1	2	1	0	1	2	2	12
8Emma TallmanMB	3	10	3	18	.389	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	11
9Sarah PfiffnerS	3	4	0	11	.364	34	1	3	9	0	0	2	1	6
4Kendall WorwaMB	3	4	2	17	.118	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	5
12Sadie JohnsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	0
17Zoe JohnOH	3	4	9	21	-.238	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
10Rya BorerDS	3	0	0	0	–	6	4	2	17	0	0	0	0	4
5Maddy DombeckS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	23	126	.183	44	7	12	58	2	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ID ST · ND ST 10

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 5 ID STND ST 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 4 ID STND ST 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 ID STND ST 10

Bars above the line = North Dakota St. leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Idaho St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	14%1/7
2	35%7/20	43%6/14
3	70%7/10	22%2/9
4	86%6/7	46%6/13
5	67%6/9	33%3/9
6	45%5/11	33%3/9
All	53%39/74	34%21/61

North Dakota St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	56%9/16
2	80%8/10	60%12/20
3	78%7/9	50%7/14
4	50%6/12	0%0/6
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	66%40/61	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	ID ST-ND ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ND ST	ND ST×4	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.4
2	0-2	ND ST	ND ST×4	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.3
3	0-3	ND ST	ND ST×4	Attack err	Abby McClain		+2.2
4	0-4	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.1
5	1-4	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Jenna Werbelow	+1.5
6	2-4	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Kendall Worwa		+2.1
7	2-5	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sadie Johnson	+1.8
8	3-5	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Nora Waddoups	+1.7
9	3-6	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.9
10	3-7	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+2.2
11	4-7	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+1.6
12	5-7	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Nora Waddoups	+2.3
13	5-8	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.9
14	6-8	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Nora Waddoups	+1.8
15	7-8	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+2.6
16	7-9	ID ST	ND ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+2.2
17	7-10	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.6
18	8-10	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+1.9
19	8-11	ID ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Abby McClain		+2.1
20	8-12	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	ND ST server	aced Abby McClain	+2.4
21	8-13	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Abby McClain	blk Sarah Pfiffner, Kendall Worwa	+2.0
22	9-13	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+1.3
23	9-14	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.6
24	10-14	ND ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Lauren Jansen	blk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain	+1.3
25	11-14	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Emma Tallman		+2.1
26	12-14	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+2.6
27	13-14	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Abby McClain		+3.1
28	14-14	ID ST	ID ST×5	Ace	ID ST server	aced Lauren Jansen	+3.5
29	14-15	ID ST	ND ST	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.9
30	15-15	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Nora Waddoups	+2.9
31	15-16	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.0
32	15-17	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.7
33	16-17	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+2.7
34	16-18	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.1
35	17-18	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John	blk Nora Waddoups, Isabella Beatty	+2.9
36	17-19	ID ST	ND ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+3.3
37	18-19	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John	blk Nora Waddoups, Jaydin Watts	+3.0
38	18-20	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.6
39	19-20	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+3.1
40	19-21	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Rya Borer	+3.9
41	20-21	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+3.3
42	20-22	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.3
43	21-22	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+3.5
44	21-23	ID ST	ND ST	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+4.8
45	21-24	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+4.4
46	22-24	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+1.4
47	22-25	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.2
Set 2
1	0-1	ID ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
2	0-2	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+2.2
3	0-3	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.1
4	1-3	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.6
5	1-4	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
6	2-4	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+1.6
7	2-5	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
8	3-5	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+1.6
9	4-5	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John		+2.3
10	4-6	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.9
11	4-7	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Maddy Dombeck	+2.3
12	5-7	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John	blk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts	+1.7
13	6-7	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John		+2.4
14	6-8	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Lauren Jansen	+2.0
15	7-8	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John	blk Kadence Marsh, Abby McClain	+1.9
16	8-8	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Isabella Beatty	+2.6
17	8-9	ID ST	ND ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+2.1
18	8-10	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.7
19	9-10	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Aspen Boice	+2.0
20	9-11	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.2
21	9-12	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.6
22	10-12	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Kadence Marsh	+1.9
23	10-13	ID ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.1
24	10-14	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.4
25	10-15	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Mia Walsh	blk Arianna Blohm	+2.0
26	11-15	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+1.2
27	11-16	ID ST	ND ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.6
28	12-16	ND ST	ID ST×4	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Kadence Marsh	+1.2
29	13-16	ID ST	ID ST×4	Ace	ID ST server	aced Lauren Jansen	+2.0
30	14-16	ID ST	ID ST×4	Attack err	Zoe John		+2.6
31	15-16	ID ST	ID ST×4	Attack err	Arianna Blohm	blk Jaydin Watts, Tana Howard	+3.1
32	15-17	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.8
33	16-17	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+2.6
34	16-18	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Kendall Worwa	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.9
35	17-18	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+2.7
36	18-18	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Emma Tallman		+4.0
37	18-19	ID ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.4
38	18-20	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Kendall Worwa	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.3
39	18-21	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+3.7
40	19-21	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+2.2
41	19-22	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Kendall Worwa	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.0
42	20-22	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Kadence Marsh	+2.1
43	20-23	ID ST	ND ST×3	Serve err	ID ST server		+3.2
44	20-24	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	ND ST server	aced Mia Walsh	+2.3
45	20-25	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Maddy Dombeck	+0.7
Set 3
1	1-0	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lauren Jansen	blk Jaydin Watts, Nora Waddoups	+1.1
2	2-0	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Aspen Boice	+1.4
3	2-1	ID ST	ND ST×10	Kill	Kendall Worwa	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.1
4	2-2	ND ST	ND ST×10	Kill	Arianna Blohm		+1.4
5	2-3	ND ST	ND ST×10	Attack err	Tana Howard		+1.4
6	2-4	ND ST	ND ST×10	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+1.4
7	2-5	ND ST	ND ST×10	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Rya Borer	+1.4
8	2-6	ND ST	ND ST×10	Ace	ND ST server	aced Jenna Werbelow	+1.2
9	2-7	ND ST	ND ST×10	Ace	ND ST server	aced Jenna Werbelow	+1.1
10	2-8	ND ST	ND ST×10	Ace	ND ST server	aced Annelie Wilson	+1.0
11	2-9	ND ST	ND ST×10	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Arianna Blohm, Emma Tallman	+0.8
12	2-10	ND ST	ND ST×10	Ace	ND ST server	aced Annelie Wilson	+0.6
13	3-10	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+0.4
14	3-11	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.5
15	4-11	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Kadence Marsh	set Jenna Werbelow	+0.4
16	5-11	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+0.6
17	5-12	ID ST	ND ST	Serve err	ID ST server		+0.6
18	6-12	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+0.5
19	7-12	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John	blk Kadence Marsh, Jaydin Watts	+0.8
20	7-13	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.8
21	7-14	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Abby McClain	blk Kendall Worwa, Sarah Pfiffner	+0.8
22	8-14	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+0.4
23	9-14	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+0.7
24	9-15	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Zoe John	+0.8
25	10-15	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Tana Howard	set Kadence Marsh	+0.6
26	11-15	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Kendall Worwa		+1.0
27	11-16	ID ST	ND ST×3	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.0
28	11-17	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.9
29	11-18	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.6
30	12-18	ND ST	ID ST	Serve err	ND ST server		+0.3
31	12-19	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.5
32	13-19	ND ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Ashlyn Smith	set Kadence Marsh	+0.3
33	14-19	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+0.6
34	15-19	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Emma Tallman	blk Ashlyn Smith, Annelie Wilson	+0.8
35	15-20	ID ST	ND ST	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Arianna Blohm, Emma Tallman	+0.9
36	16-20	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Ashlyn Smith	set Kadence Marsh	+0.6
37	16-21	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.9
38	17-21	ND ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson		+0.5
39	17-22	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Rya Borer	+0.9
40	17-23	ND ST	ND ST	Ace	ND ST server	aced Annelie Wilson	+0.6
41	18-23	ND ST	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe John		+0.2
42	18-24	ID ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.3
43	18-25	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Abby McClain		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.