Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:1

HomeUAC-

Idaho St. def. Little Rock 3–1

(25-13, 25-17, 21-25, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
ID ST	25	25	21	25	3
UALR	13	17	25	18	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UALR above 50 · ID ST below

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Little Rock — set 4, ID ST 8-7 UALR. Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Alayna Vaeth). UALR win probability 12% → 15%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ID ST 64.1%35.9% UALR

Idaho St. wins

3-0

19.5%

3-1

24.6%

3-2

20.0%

Little Rock wins

3-0

7.4%

3-1

12.9%

3-2

15.6%

ID ST break %: 45.9% vs this opp
UALR break %: 43.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lovina TeelKill+2.9%
Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Alayna Vaeth)
Set 4 · ID ST 8-7 UALR · UALR 12% → 15%
02
ID ST serverAce+2.8%
Idaho St. ace on Lovina Teel
Set 4 · ID ST 10-7 UALR · ID ST 87% → 90%
03
Mia WalshAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Mia Walsh
Set 4 · ID ST 2-2 UALR · UALR 15% → 18%
04
Annelie WilsonKill+2.7%
Kill by Annelie Wilson (set by Kadence Marsh)
Set 4 · ID ST 8-5 UALR · ID ST 87% → 90%
05
Morgan CreerAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Morgan Creer
Set 4 · ID ST 4-2 UALR · ID ST 84% → 87%
06
ID ST serverService error+2.7%
Idaho St. service error
Set 3 · ID ST 21-23 UALR · UALR 12% → 15%
07
Bella CherryAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Bella Cherry
Set 4 · ID ST 1-0 UALR · ID ST 81% → 84%
08
ID ST serverAce+2.6%
Idaho St. ace on Bella Cherry
Set 4 · ID ST 2-0 UALR · ID ST 84% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Idaho St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
26Jaydin WattsMB	4	12	1	22	.500	0	0	0	7	0	3	4	5	17
17Annelie WilsonOH	4	10	5	30	.167	1	3	1	15	1	0	0	0	13
3Abby McClainOH	4	11	2	26	.346	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	12.5
21Mia WalshOH	4	6	3	24	.125	1	1	2	9	1	0	3	1.5	8.5
18Kadence MarshS	4	0	0	1	.000	20	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
16Isabella BeattyMB	2	1	2	6	-.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
13Ava BricknerOH	4	7	4	22	.136	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
9Nora WaddoupsS	4	2	0	3	.667	21	2	0	9	0	0	0	0	4
1Aspen BoiceL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	6	3	2	11	1	0	0	0	3
11Ashlyn SmithMB	2	2	1	4	.250	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
22Daelyn HarrisMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		52	19	142	.232	51	10	5	68	3	3	14	10	96

Little Rockhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Avery FearnleyOH	4	11	10	38	.026	1	0	1	5	2	0	3	1.5	12.5
18Lovina TeelOH	4	8	2	22	.273	2	0	1	6	3	0	0	0	8
12Alyssa BoyteMB	4	5	4	21	.048	2	0	0	3	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
17Lorena KeseljMB	4	1	0	2	.500	0	1	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Lily KingS	4	0	0	1	.000	21	2	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
10Polianna HernandezOH	1	2	3	8	-.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
8Bella CherryOH	4	9	6	35	.086	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	9
4Alayna VaethS	4	1	0	4	.250	12	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
2Skyler PerezL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	3	0	1	11	2	0	0	0	0
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0	0
13Morgan CreerOH	3	9	3	15	.400	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
Team totals		46	28	148	.122	43	3	6	58	10	1	8	5	73

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ID ST · UALR 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 5 ID STUALR 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 ID STUALR 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 ID STUALR 4

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 3 ID STUALR 3

Bars above the line = Little Rock leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Idaho St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	79%11/14	40%6/15
2	67%8/12	47%8/17
3	47%8/17	38%5/13
4	80%8/10	53%9/17
5	88%7/8	56%9/16
6	54%7/13	59%10/17
All	66%49/74	49%47/95

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	52%11/21	44%7/16
2	57%8/14	33%5/15
3	53%8/15	47%7/15
4	47%7/15	33%4/12
5	41%7/17	0%0/7
6	54%7/13	22%2/9
All	51%48/95	34%25/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

169 rallies

Rally log

#	ID ST-UALR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.7
2	1-1	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+1.8
3	1-2	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.4
4	2-2	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.8
5	3-2	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.3
6	4-2	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.2
7	4-3	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+1.8
8	4-4	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ava Brickner		+2.4
9	5-4	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.9
10	6-4	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Polianna Hernandez		+2.3
11	7-4	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.2
12	7-5	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.7
13	8-5	UALR	ID ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.8
14	8-6	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.7
15	9-6	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.8
16	10-6	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Isabella Beatty	+2.0
17	11-6	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Isabella Beatty, Abby McClain	+1.7
18	11-7	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.2
19	12-7	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.4
20	12-8	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.2
21	13-8	UALR	ID ST×5	Attack err	Polianna Hernandez		+1.4
22	14-8	ID ST	ID ST×5	Ace	ID ST server	aced Skyler Perez	+1.4
23	15-8	ID ST	ID ST×5	Ace	ID ST server	aced Skyler Perez	+1.1
24	16-8	ID ST	ID ST×5	Ace	ID ST server	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.7
25	17-8	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Polianna Hernandez	blk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain	+0.5
26	17-9	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Jaydin Watts		+0.2
27	17-10	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Skyler Perez	+0.4
28	18-10	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+0.5
29	19-10	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.4
30	19-11	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Ava Brickner		+0.2
31	20-11	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.3
32	21-11	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley	blk Jaydin Watts	+0.1
33	22-11	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+0.1
34	22-12	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.0
35	22-13	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ava Brickner	blk Avery Fearnley, Lorena Keselj	+0.0
36	23-13	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.1
37	24-13	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Daelyn Harris	set Nora Waddoups	+0.0
38	25-13	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Daelyn Harris, Mia Walsh	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lovina Teel	+1.6
2	1-1	UALR	ID ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.6
3	1-2	ID ST	UALR	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.7
4	2-2	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.6
5	2-3	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Nora Waddoups	+1.7
6	3-3	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.6
7	4-3	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+2.0
8	4-4	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.7
9	5-4	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Nora Waddoups	set Annelie Wilson	+1.7
10	5-5	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.7
11	6-5	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Aspen Boice	+1.7
12	7-5	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.1
13	8-5	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+1.9
14	8-6	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+1.5
15	8-7	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Isabella Beatty		+2.1
16	9-7	UALR	ID ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.7
17	9-8	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.7
18	10-8	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.8
19	11-8	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel	blk Abby McClain, Jaydin Watts	+2.1
20	11-9	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.6
21	12-9	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.7
22	13-9	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Nora Waddoups	+1.9
23	13-10	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.3
24	13-11	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Bella Cherry	+2.0
25	14-11	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.8
26	15-11	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner		+2.0
27	15-12	ID ST	UALR	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.4
28	16-12	UALR	ID ST×4	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Mia Walsh	+1.6
29	17-12	ID ST	ID ST×4	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.6
30	18-12	ID ST	ID ST×4	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.2
31	19-12	ID ST	ID ST×4	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Nora Waddoups	+0.8
32	19-13	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Daelyn Harris	blk Alyssa Boyte	+0.4
33	20-13	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+0.6
34	21-13	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+0.4
35	21-14	ID ST	UALR×3	Attack err	Abby McClain		+0.1
36	21-15	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Aspen Boice	+0.3
37	21-16	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Annelie Wilson	+0.5
38	22-16	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Kadence Marsh	+0.7
39	23-16	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Victoria Fontenot	+0.4
40	23-17	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.1
41	24-17	UALR	ID ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+0.2
42	25-17	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Ashlyn Smith		+1.2
2	1-1	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+0.9
3	1-2	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Abby McClain		+1.0
4	2-2	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+1.0
5	2-3	ID ST	UALR×4	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.0
6	2-4	UALR	UALR×4	Ace	UALR server	aced Mia Walsh	+1.3
7	2-5	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+1.3
8	2-6	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alyssa Boyte	+1.2
9	3-6	UALR	ID ST	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Jaydin Watts	+0.9
10	3-7	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.0
11	4-7	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.9
12	4-8	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.0
13	5-8	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+0.9
14	6-8	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Aspen Boice	+1.3
15	7-8	ID ST	ID ST×3	Ace	ID ST server	aced Lovina Teel	+1.3
16	7-9	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.2
17	7-10	UALR	UALR	Kill	Alayna Vaeth	set Avery Fearnley	+1.5
18	8-10	UALR	ID ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.0
19	8-11	ID ST	UALR	Serve err	ID ST server		+1.2
20	9-11	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.1
21	9-12	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+1.2
22	10-12	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+1.1
23	10-13	ID ST	UALR×4	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.3
24	10-14	UALR	UALR×4	Attack err	Ava Brickner	blk Morgan Creer, Alyssa Boyte	+1.5
25	10-15	UALR	UALR×4	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.3
26	10-16	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.1
27	11-16	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.6
28	12-16	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Ava Brickner, Jaydin Watts	+1.0
29	12-17	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+1.1
30	12-18	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Mia Walsh	blk Avery Fearnley, Alyssa Boyte	+1.0
31	13-18	UALR	ID ST×3	Serve err	UALR server		+0.5
32	14-18	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+0.9
33	15-18	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+1.2
34	15-19	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.3
35	16-19	UALR	ID ST	Serve err	UALR server		+1.0
36	17-19	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.6
37	17-20	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.7
38	18-20	UALR	ID ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+1.3
39	19-20	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+2.1
40	19-21	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.1
41	19-22	UALR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+2.3
42	20-22	UALR	ID ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+1.3
43	21-22	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+2.3
44	21-23	ID ST	UALR×3	Serve err	ID ST server		+2.7
45	21-24	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.6
46	21-25	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Annelie Wilson	+1.1
Set 4
1	1-0	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+2.7
2	2-0	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Bella Cherry	+2.6
3	2-1	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+2.1
4	2-2	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+2.8
5	3-2	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Nora Waddoups	set Ashlyn Smith	+2.2
6	4-2	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+2.7
7	4-3	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.1
8	5-3	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+2.2
9	5-4	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.2
10	6-4	UALR	ID ST	Serve err	UALR server		+2.3
11	6-5	ID ST	UALR	Serve err	ID ST server		+2.2
12	7-5	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+2.3
13	8-5	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+2.7
14	8-6	ID ST	UALR	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Alyssa Boyte, Avery Fearnley	+2.1
15	8-7	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.9
16	9-7	UALR	ID ST×3	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+2.4
17	10-7	ID ST	ID ST×3	Ace	ID ST server	aced Lovina Teel	+2.8
18	11-7	ID ST	ID ST×3	Ace	ID ST server	aced Avery Fearnley	+2.5
19	11-8	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.8
20	12-8	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Nora Waddoups	+2.1
21	13-8	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Lovina Teel	+2.2
22	13-9	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Skyler Perez	+1.5
23	14-9	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+1.8
24	14-10	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lovina Teel	+1.5
25	15-10	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+1.8
26	16-10	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Jaydin Watts	+1.7
27	16-11	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+1.0
28	16-12	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Victoria Fontenot	+1.8
29	17-12	UALR	ID ST×3	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Jaydin Watts, Mia Walsh	+1.8
30	18-12	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.6
31	19-12	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Aspen Boice	+1.1
32	19-13	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.5
33	20-13	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+0.8
34	21-13	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+0.5
35	21-14	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alyssa Boyte	+0.2
36	22-14	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+0.3
37	22-15	ID ST	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.1
38	22-16	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry		+0.3
39	22-17	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+0.6
40	23-17	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Ashlyn Smith	set Nora Waddoups	+0.8
41	24-17	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Bella Cherry	+0.4
42	24-18	ID ST	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+0.1
43	25-18	UALR	ID ST	Kill	Ashlyn Smith	set Nora Waddoups	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.