FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Idaho St. def. Air Force 3–0

(25-20, 25-18, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ID ST	25	25	25	3
AIRFOR	20	18	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AIRFOR above 50 · ID ST below

Biggest swing: 5.3% to Idaho St. — set 3, ID ST 24-23 AIRFOR. Karina Mendivil stuffed by Mia Walsh & Isabella Beatty. AIRFOR win probability 10% → 5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ID ST 60.6%39.4% AIRFOR

Idaho St. wins

3-0

17.5%

3-1

23.1%

3-2

19.9%

Air Force wins

3-0

8.6%

3-1

14.4%

3-2

16.5%

ID ST break %: 43.4% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %: 41.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Karina MendivilAttack error+5.3%
Karina Mendivil stuffed by Mia Walsh & Isabella Beatty
Set 3 · ID ST 24-23 AIRFOR · ID ST 90% → 95%
02
Ava BricknerKill+5.1%
Kill by Ava Brickner (set by Nora Waddoups)
Set 3 · ID ST 25-23 AIRFOR · ID ST 95% → 100%
03
Grace FiaseuKill+3.3%
Kill by Grace Fiaseu (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 3 · ID ST 22-23 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 10% → 14%
04
Jaydin WattsKill+3.1%
Kill by Jaydin Watts (set by Nora Waddoups)
Set 3 · ID ST 23-23 AIRFOR · ID ST 86% → 90%
05
Lainie StapletonAttack error+2.9%
Attack error by Lainie Stapleton
Set 3 · ID ST 20-20 AIRFOR · ID ST 87% → 90%
06
Grace FiaseuKill+2.7%
Kill by Grace Fiaseu (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 3 · ID ST 21-22 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 10% → 13%
07
Ava BricknerKill+2.6%
Kill by Ava Brickner (set by Nora Waddoups)
Set 3 · ID ST 22-22 AIRFOR · ID ST 87% → 90%
08
Zoe KirbyKill+2.4%
Kill by Zoe Kirby (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 3 · ID ST 20-21 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 10% → 12%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Idaho St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
26Jaydin WattsMB	3	11	3	19	.421	0	0	0	5	0	2	6	5	16
3Abby McClainOH	3	9	3	27	.222	0	0	0	6	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
17Annelie WilsonOH	3	6	3	27	.111	1	0	1	9	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
21Mia WalshOH	3	5	4	18	.056	1	0	0	11	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Ashlyn SmithMB	3	1	3	9	-.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
18Kadence MarshS	3	0	0	2	.000	14	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
13Ava BricknerOH	3	10	1	21	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
1Aspen BoiceL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	20	2	0	0	0	0
9Nora WaddoupsS	3	0	0	1	.000	20	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
4Jenna WerbelowDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Isabella BeattyMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
2Claudia AntcliffL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	17	126	.206	38	1	1	60	2	3	16	11	75

Air Forcehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Karina MendivilOH	3	11	11	43	.000	0	0	1	13	1	0	2	1	12
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	8	4	19	.211	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	11
55Kennedy SimonOH	3	9	5	32	.125	1	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	9
30Zoe KirbyMB	3	6	2	16	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
8Lainie StapletonOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	6
11Mia LoydS	3	1	2	4	-.250	25	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	4	.000	4	0	0	17	0	0	0	0	0
20Sophie BridgesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
13Jenness OrcuttOH	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
15Kiera KingL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
23Samantha PopeS	2	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Neely LeathersS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	27	136	.103	39	2	4	57	1	1	14	8	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ID ST · AIRFOR 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 3 ID STAIRFOR 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 6 ID STAIRFOR 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 ID STAIRFOR 3

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Idaho St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	45%5/11
2	73%8/11	50%8/16
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	88%7/8	50%7/14
5	56%5/9	58%7/12
6	38%5/13	38%3/8
All	63%40/63	48%35/73

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	36%4/11
2	62%8/13	27%3/11
3	54%7/13	33%4/12
4	33%5/15	22%2/9
5	50%5/10	17%1/6
6	63%5/8	64%9/14
All	52%38/73	37%23/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	ID ST-AIRFOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	AIRFOR	ID ST×3	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.7
2	2-0	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Zoe Kirby		+2.3
3	3-0	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain	+2.2
4	3-1	ID ST	AIRFOR	Attack err	Annelie Wilson		+1.5
5	4-1	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+1.6
6	4-2	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
7	5-2	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.7
8	5-3	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
9	6-3	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.7
10	7-3	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+2.1
11	7-4	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.4
12	8-4	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+1.6
13	9-4	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Aspen Boice	+1.8
14	9-5	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
15	9-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Ashlyn Smith		+1.9
16	10-6	AIRFOR	ID ST	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.6
17	11-6	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.9
18	11-7	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
19	12-7	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.4
20	12-8	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
21	13-8	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+1.4
22	14-8	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+1.5
23	14-9	ID ST	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jaydin Watts		+0.8
24	15-9	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
25	16-9	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+1.1
26	16-10	ID ST	AIRFOR	Serve err	ID ST server		+0.5
27	17-10	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.7
28	17-11	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Mia Loyd	set Aylani Correa	+0.5
29	18-11	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+0.7
30	19-11	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.6
31	19-12	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Abby McClain		+0.2
32	19-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Ella Vogel	+0.5
33	19-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Kennedy Simon	+0.8
34	20-14	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Mia Loyd		+0.9
35	20-15	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
36	21-15	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+0.8
37	21-16	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
38	21-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Abby McClain	blk Grace Fiaseu, Karina Mendivil	+1.0
39	22-17	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+1.2
40	22-18	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
41	23-18	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
42	24-18	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Mia Loyd		+0.6
43	24-19	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
44	24-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
45	25-20	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+0.5
Set 2
1	1-0	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Mia Walsh	+2.1
2	1-1	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
3	1-2	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Aspen Boice	+2.3
4	2-2	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton		+1.6
5	2-3	ID ST	AIRFOR	Attack err	Jaydin Watts	blk Grace Fiaseu, Lainie Stapleton	+1.7
6	3-3	AIRFOR	ID ST×5	Kill	Annelie Wilson	set Kadence Marsh	+1.7
7	4-3	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Jaydin Watts, Ava Brickner	+2.3
8	5-3	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+2.2
9	6-3	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+2.1
10	7-3	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.9
11	7-4	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
12	7-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon		+2.0
13	8-5	AIRFOR	ID ST×6	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.6
14	9-5	ID ST	ID ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts	+2.0
15	10-5	ID ST	ID ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Jaydin Watts, Mia Walsh	+1.7
16	11-5	ID ST	ID ST×6	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Jaydin Watts	+1.4
17	12-5	ID ST	ID ST×6	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
18	13-5	ID ST	ID ST×6	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt	blk Ava Brickner	+0.8
19	13-6	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+0.4
20	14-6	AIRFOR	ID ST×3	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+0.5
21	15-6	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+0.5
22	16-6	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+0.3
23	16-7	ID ST	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Ella Vogel	+0.1
24	16-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Smith		+0.3
25	16-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Mia Walsh	blk Lainie Stapleton, Zoe Kirby	+0.4
26	16-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+0.7
27	17-10	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ashlyn Smith	set Nora Waddoups	+0.7
28	17-11	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
29	17-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
30	17-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Abby McClain		+1.3
31	18-13	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.3
32	19-13	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+1.2
33	19-14	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
34	19-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Grace Fiaseu, Lainie Stapleton	+1.2
35	20-15	AIRFOR	ID ST×5	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.2
36	21-15	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.0
37	22-15	ID ST	ID ST×5	Kill	Annelie Wilson		+0.5
38	23-15	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Jaydin Watts	+0.2
39	24-15	ID ST	ID ST×5	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain	+0.1
40	24-16	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.0
41	24-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Jaydin Watts	blk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt	+0.0
42	24-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+0.0
43	25-18	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.0
2	2-0	ID ST	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Annelie Wilson	+1.3
3	2-1	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
4	3-1	AIRFOR	ID ST	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.0
5	3-2	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
6	3-3	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Aspen Boice	+1.4
7	3-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Ava Brickner	blk Grace Fiaseu	+1.5
8	4-4	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Jaydin Watts, Annelie Wilson	+1.1
9	4-5	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Samantha Pope	+1.1
10	5-5	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
11	6-5	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+1.5
12	6-6	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Samantha Pope	+1.1
13	6-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Grace Fiaseu	+1.6
14	7-7	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Mia Walsh	set Nora Waddoups	+1.1
15	7-8	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
16	7-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+1.7
17	7-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Ashlyn Smith	blk Karina Mendivil, Zoe Kirby	+1.6
18	8-10	AIRFOR	ID ST	Attack err	Zoe Kirby		+1.1
19	8-11	ID ST	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Ella Vogel	+1.2
20	8-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Annelie Wilson	blk Lainie Stapleton, Zoe Kirby	+1.5
21	8-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+1.4
22	9-13	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+0.8
23	9-14	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Ella Vogel	+1.0
24	10-14	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+0.8
25	10-15	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
26	11-15	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Aspen Boice	+0.8
27	11-16	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Neely Leathers	+1.0
28	12-16	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+0.8
29	13-16	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+1.3
30	13-17	ID ST	AIRFOR	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.3
31	14-17	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+1.0
32	15-17	ID ST	ID ST	Ace	ID ST server	aced Karina Mendivil	+1.7
33	15-18	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Neely Leathers	+1.6
34	15-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Mia Walsh		+1.8
35	16-19	AIRFOR	ID ST×3	Kill	Isabella Beatty	set Kadence Marsh	+0.9
36	17-19	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Abby McClain, Isabella Beatty	+1.7
37	18-19	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+2.2
38	18-20	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+2.0
39	19-20	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Abby McClain	set Kadence Marsh	+1.7
40	20-20	ID ST	ID ST	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton		+2.9
41	20-21	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+2.4
42	21-21	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Kadence Marsh	+2.3
43	21-22	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+2.7
44	22-22	AIRFOR	ID ST	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+2.6
45	22-23	ID ST	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+3.3
46	23-23	AIRFOR	ID ST×3	Kill	Jaydin Watts	set Nora Waddoups	+3.1
47	24-23	ID ST	ID ST×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Mia Walsh, Isabella Beatty	+5.3
48	25-23	ID ST	ID ST×3	Kill	Ava Brickner	set Nora Waddoups	+5.1

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.