Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 22, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Idaho St. def. Montana 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Idaho St. 86.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Idaho St. beat visiting Montana 3-1 (29-27, 25-18, 20-25, 25-17) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Idaho St.'s Mia Walsh led with 20 kills, and Aspen Boice added 21 digs.

Data through · final Oct 22

Set1234Sets
MONT271825171
ID ST292520253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Serve, receive, attack, block: Idaho St. won all four.

No single rally moved win probability more than 6.7 points. Montana peaked at 22% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Idaho St. went in as RallyIQ's 87% pick.

MontanaIdaho St.
  • Hitting+.137
    .185.322

    62 K / 15 E against 54 K / 22 E.

  • Longest run+1
    45

    5 straight Idaho St. points in the first set broke a 2–2 tie and made it 7–2. The set finished 29–27.

Idaho St. above 50Montana belowMax swing 6.7%

MontanaIdaho St.

Aces
Montana 7·Idaho St. 4
Serve err
Montana 10·Idaho St. 9
Blocks
Montana 5·Idaho St. 110 BS · 10 BA vs 0 BS · 22 BA
Digs
Montana 58·Idaho St. 85

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Idaho St. above 50 · Montana below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.7% MONTrally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.7% to Montana — set 1, MONT 25-24 ID ST. Montana ace on Annelie Wilson. ID ST win probability 84% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MONT 17.1%82.9% ID ST

Montana wins

3-0
2.6%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
8.9%

Idaho St. wins

3-0
34.6%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
17.4%
MONT break %
39.4% vs this opp
ID ST break %
46.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    MontanaAce+6.7%

    Montana ace on Annelie Wilson

    Set 1 · MONT 25-24 ID ST · MONT 16% → 22%

  2. 02
    Mia WalshKill+5.7%

    Kill by Mia Walsh (set by Aspen Boice)

    Set 1 · MONT 26-27 ID ST · ID ST 83% → 89%

  3. 03
    Josie BlazinaKill+5.5%

    Kill by Josie Blazina

    Set 1 · MONT 24-24 ID ST · MONT 10% → 16%

  4. 04
    Jaydin WattsAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Jaydin Watts

    Set 1 · MONT 25-25 ID ST · ID ST 78% → 83%

  5. 05

    Kill by Delaney Russell (set by Annika Wright)

    Set 1 · MONT 26-25 ID ST · MONT 17% → 22%

  6. 06

    Ava Brickner stuffed by Ava Brickner & Isabella Beatty

    Set 1 · MONT 26-26 ID ST · ID ST 78% → 83%

  7. 07
    Mylee BlakeAttack error+4.7%

    Attack error by Mylee Blake

    Set 1 · MONT 27-29 ID ST · ID ST 89% → 93%

  8. 08
    Idaho St.Service error+4.5%

    Idaho St. service error

    Set 1 · MONT 27-27 ID ST · MONT 11% → 16%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419649.26500113100019
412326.3460132004215
45420.0502921900429
46329.10300120010.56.5
43015.20000000010.53.5
22412-.167000100002
4105.2001722400003
4000–2122300001
4000–000110000
36216.250010300007
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5422173.18548710584010587
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420335.486000120031.521.5
412020.60000080052.514.5
411329.27622110102114
4328.1254802160031.54.5
4000–010830001
2013-.333000100422
4000–013000001
4000–8022120000
37430.100001500218
2306.500000200214
2000–000000000
1407.571000100004
1228.00000010010.52.5
Team totals6215146.32258498570221199

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MONT · ID ST 5

Set 1

27-29

Longest run 4 MONTID ST 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 MONTID ST 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 MONTID ST 3

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 3 MONTID ST 4

Bars above the line = Idaho St. leads, below = Montana leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Montana

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
33%3/9
2
42%8/19
27%3/11
3
67%8/12
33%4/12
4
80%8/10
47%7/15
5
47%7/15
36%4/11
6
63%5/8
42%5/12
All
59%44/74
37%26/70

Idaho St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
22%2/9
2
57%8/14
43%6/14
3
57%8/14
53%9/17
4
58%7/12
11%1/9
5
88%7/8
22%2/9
6
46%6/13
63%10/16
All
63%44/70
41%30/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

186 rallies

#MONT-ID STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ID STID STBlockedMylee Blakeblk Mia Walsh, Isabella Beatty+1.2
21-1ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+1.0
31-2MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.9
42-2ID STMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+1.0
52-3MONTID ST×5KillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+1.0
62-4ID STID ST×5Attack errDelaney Russell+1.1
72-5ID STID ST×5BlockedAlex Stoneblk Ava Brickner, Jaydin Watts+1.0
82-6ID STID ST×5Attack errDelaney Russell+0.8
92-7ID STID ST×5Attack errGracie Cagle+0.7
103-7ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.5
113-8MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.6
124-8ID STMONT×3KillJosie Blazinaset Annika Wright+0.5
135-8MONTMONT×3KillGracie Cagleset Annika Wright+0.8
146-8MONTMONT×3Attack errIsabella Beatty+1.1
156-9MONTID STKillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+0.9
167-9ID STMONTKillGracie Cagleset Annika Wright+0.9
177-10MONTID STServe errJosie Blazina+0.9
188-10ID STMONTBad setIsabella Beatty+0.9
198-11MONTID STServe errGracie Cagle+0.9
209-11ID STMONTKillGracie Cagle+0.9
2110-11MONTMONTAttack errKadence Marsh+1.4
2210-12MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.2
2310-13ID STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.3
2411-13ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+1.0
2512-13MONTMONTAceMontanaaced Jenna Werbelow+1.5
2612-14MONTID STServe errMadeline Sanderson+1.3
2713-14ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+1.3
2813-15MONTID STAttack errDelaney Russell+1.3
2914-15ID STMONTBlockedAva Bricknerblk Josie Blazina, Gracie Cagle+1.4
3014-16MONTID STServe errDelaney Russell+1.4
3115-16ID STMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Annika Wright+1.4
3215-17MONTID STKillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+1.5
3316-17ID STMONT×3Serve errIdaho St.+1.5
3417-17MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Aspen Boice+2.4
3518-17MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Jenna Werbelow+2.8
3618-18MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+2.1
3719-18ID STMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+2.5
3819-19MONTID ST×5KillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+2.3
3919-20ID STID ST×5BlockedDelaney Russellblk Jaydin Watts, Kadence Marsh+2.9
4019-21ID STID ST×5KillJaydin Watts+2.6
4119-22ID STID ST×5KillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+1.9
4219-23ID STID ST×5BlockedAlex Stoneblk Jaydin Watts, Annelie Wilson+1.2
4320-23ID STMONTKillAlex Stoneset Gracie Cagle+0.5
4421-23MONTMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+1.2
4521-24MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+1.6
4622-24ID STMONT×4KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+0.7
4723-24MONTMONT×4KillJosie Blazinaset Annika Wright+2.2
4824-24MONTMONT×4KillJosie Blazina+5.5
4925-24MONTMONT×4AceMontanaaced Annelie Wilson+6.7
5025-25MONTID STAttack errJaydin Watts+5.4
5126-25ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+5.4
5226-26MONTID STBlockedAva Bricknerblk Ava Brickner, Isabella Beatty+5.4
5326-27ID STID STKillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+5.7
5427-27ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+4.5
5527-28MONTID STAttack errGracie Cagle+4.5
5627-29ID STID STAttack errMylee Blake+4.7
Set 2
10-1MONTID STKillAva Bricknerset Aspen Boice+0.6
21-1ID STMONT×3Serve errIdaho St.+0.7
32-1MONTMONT×3KillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+1.0
43-1MONTMONT×3Attack errAva Brickner+1.1
53-2MONTID ST×3KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.8
63-3ID STID ST×3BlockedAlex Stoneblk Mia Walsh, Isabella Beatty+1.0
73-4ID STID ST×3KillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.9
84-4ID STMONTKillSydney Pierceset Gracie Cagle+0.8
94-5MONTID STAttack errAlex Stone+0.7
105-5ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.8
116-5MONTMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+1.1
126-6MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.8
136-7ID STID STKillKadence Marshset Annelie Wilson+1.0
147-7ID STMONTKillMylee Blakeset Gracie Cagle+0.9
157-8MONTID ST×4KillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.8
167-9ID STID ST×4KillJaydin Wattsset Annika Wright+0.9
177-10ID STID ST×4KillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+0.8
187-11ID STID ST×4KillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.7
198-11ID STMONT×3KillAnnika Wright+0.5
209-11MONTMONT×3BlockedAva Bricknerblk Josie Blazina, Gracie Cagle+0.8
2110-11MONTMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+1.0
2210-12MONTID STServe errMylee Blake+0.8
2311-12ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+0.9
2411-13MONTID STServe errJosie Blazina+0.9
2512-13ID STMONTKillGracie Cagleset Annika Wright+0.9
2612-14MONTID ST×4KillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+0.9
2712-15ID STID ST×4BlockedDelaney Russellblk Isabella Beatty, Annelie Wilson+1.0
2812-16ID STID ST×4KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.8
2912-17ID STID ST×4KillMia Walshset Gracie Cagle+0.6
3013-17ID STMONTAttack errAnnelie Wilson+0.4
3113-18MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.5
3214-18ID STMONTBlockedMia Walshblk Mylee Blake, Sydney Pierce+0.4
3314-19MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.5
3415-19ID STMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+0.3
3515-20MONTID ST×5Serve errAnnika Wright+0.4
3615-21ID STID ST×5KillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+0.3
3715-22ID STID ST×5Attack errJosie Blazina+0.2
3815-23ID STID ST×5BlockedGracie Cagleblk Jaydin Watts, Kadence Marsh+0.1
3915-24ID STID ST×5AceIdaho St.·
4016-24ID STMONT×3Attack errMia Walsh·
4117-24MONTMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Madeline Sanderson·
4218-24MONTMONT×3Attack errAva Brickner·
4318-25MONTID STKillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh·
Set 3
10-1ID STID STKillAshlyn Smithset Kadence Marsh+0.4
21-1ID STMONTKillMylee Blakeset Gracie Cagle+0.3
31-2MONTID STKillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+0.3
42-2ID STMONT×3KillKaylee Paulsonset Gracie Cagle+0.4
53-2MONTMONT×3Attack errMia Walsh+0.5
64-2MONTMONT×3KillKaylee Paulsonset Madeline Sanderson+0.5
74-3MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.4
85-3ID STMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.5
96-3MONTMONT×3Attack errKadence Marsh+0.6
107-3MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Aspen Boice+0.6
117-4MONTID STServe errAnnika Wright+0.4
127-5ID STID STAttack errKaylee Paulson+0.5
138-5ID STMONTAttack errAnnelie Wilson+0.5
148-6MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.4
159-6ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+0.5
1610-6MONTMONTAceMontana+0.7
1710-7MONTID ST×3Attack errGracie Cagle+0.4
1810-8ID STID ST×3KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.6
1910-9ID STID ST×3KillMia Walshset Annika Wright+0.6
2011-9ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+0.6
2112-9MONTMONTKillDelaney Russellset Kadence Marsh+0.7
2212-10MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.5
2313-10ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.6
2413-11MONTID STKillAshlyn Smithset Kadence Marsh+0.5
2514-11ID STMONTKillMylee Blakeset Kadence Marsh+0.6
2614-12MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.5
2715-12ID STMONTAttack errGracie Vohs+0.7
2815-13MONTID STKillGracie Vohsset Kadence Marsh+0.5
2916-13ID STMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Annika Wright+0.7
3016-14MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+0.6
3117-14ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+0.7
3217-15MONTID STServe errJosie Blazina+0.6
3318-15ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+0.8
3418-16MONTID STKillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+0.6
3519-16ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+0.8
3619-17MONTID STKillGracie Vohsset Kadence Marsh+0.6
3719-18ID STID STBlockedMylee Blakeblk Gracie Vohs, Jaydin Watts+0.9
3820-18ID STMONTServe errIdaho St.+0.9
3920-19MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.8
4021-19ID STMONTKillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+1.0
4122-19MONTMONTBlockedGracie Vohsblk Gracie Cagle, Josie Blazina+1.2
4222-20MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.6
4323-20ID STMONT×3KillKaylee Paulsonset Annika Wright+1.0
4424-20MONTMONT×3BlockedAnnelie Wilsonblk Josie Blazina, Gracie Cagle+0.9
4525-20MONTMONT×3AceMontanaaced Jenna Werbelow+0.3
Set 4
10-1MONTID ST×3KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+1.2
20-2ID STID ST×3AceIdaho St.aced Halle Walker+1.4
30-3ID STID ST×3KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+1.2
41-3ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+1.0
51-4MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.0
62-4ID STMONTKillMylee Blakeset Gracie Cagle+1.0
72-5MONTID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.0
83-5ID STMONT×3KillKaylee Paulsonset Gracie Cagle+1.0
94-5MONTMONT×3KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+1.5
105-5MONTMONT×3KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+1.8
115-6MONTID STServe errMadeline Sanderson+1.4
125-7ID STID STAceIdaho St.aced Delaney Russell+1.6
136-7ID STMONTKillKaylee Paulsonset Gracie Cagle+1.3
146-8MONTID ST×4KillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+1.3
156-9ID STID ST×4KillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+1.4
166-10ID STID ST×4BlockedKaylee Paulsonblk Ashlyn Smith, Kadence Marsh+1.2
17–187-11MONT · ID ST
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
197-12MONTID STKillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+0.8
208-12ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Annika Wright+0.7
218-13MONTID ST×4KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.8
228-14ID STID ST×4KillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+0.7
238-15ID STID ST×4KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.5
248-16ID STID ST×4BlockedDelaney Russellblk Mia Walsh, Ashlyn Smith+0.3
259-16ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.2
269-17MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.3
2710-17ID STMONTKillMylee Blakeset Gracie Cagle+0.2
2810-18MONTID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+0.2
2911-18ID STMONT×3KillMylee Blakeset Gracie Cagle+0.2
3012-18MONTMONT×3KillJosie Blazinaset Gracie Cagle+0.3
3113-18MONTMONT×3KillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.5
3213-19MONTID STKillKadence Marshset Annelie Wilson+0.5
3313-20ID STID STAttack errJosie Blazina+0.4
3414-20ID STMONTBad setKadence Marsh+0.2
3514-21MONTID STKillKadence Marshset Aspen Boice+0.3
3615-21ID STMONTKillKaylee Paulsonset Annika Wright+0.2
3715-22MONTID STKillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+0.2
3816-22ID STMONTKillDelaney Russellset Gracie Cagle+0.1
3916-23MONTID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+0.2
4016-24ID STID STKillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+0.1
4117-24ID STMONTKillGracie Cagleset Annika Wright·
4217-25MONTID STKillAshlyn Smithset Kadence Marsh·

Score shown after each rally, Montana first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).