Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

Duke def. Coastal Carolina 3–1

Duke won at Coastal Carolina 3-1 (17-25, 25-20, 25-19, 25-23) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. Ashby Zubchevich led Duke with 13 kills; Coastal Carolina's Viara Parapunova had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set1234Sets
DUKE172525253
CO CAR252019231

Win probability

Coastal Carolina above 50 · Duke below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.4% DUKErally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.4% to Duke — set 4, DUKE 24-23 CO CAR. Bad set by Isabella Loeswick. CO CAR win probability 22% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUKE 64.6%35.4% CO CAR

Duke wins

3-0
19.8%
3-1
24.8%
3-2
20.1%

Coastal Carolina wins

3-0
7.3%
3-1
12.7%
3-2
15.4%
DUKE break %
42.8% vs this opp
CO CAR break %
40.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Isabella LoeswickBad set+11.4%

    Bad set by Isabella Loeswick

    Set 4 · DUKE 24-23 CO CAR · DUKE 78% → 89%

  2. 02
    DukeAce+10.7%

    Duke ace

    Set 4 · DUKE 25-23 CO CAR · DUKE 89% → 100%

  3. 03
    Ashby ZubchevichAttack error+8.1%

    Attack error by Ashby Zubchevich

    Set 4 · DUKE 21-22 CO CAR · CO CAR 19% → 27%

  4. 04
    DukeService error+6.8%

    Duke service error

    Set 4 · DUKE 22-23 CO CAR · CO CAR 22% → 28%

  5. 05
    Coastal CarolinaService error+6.4%

    Coastal Carolina service error

    Set 4 · DUKE 23-23 CO CAR · DUKE 72% → 78%

  6. 06

    Kill by Hatteras Welker (set by Jonna Spohn)

    Set 4 · DUKE 19-19 CO CAR · CO CAR 13% → 19%

  7. 07
    Anzley RinardAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Anzley Rinard

    Set 4 · DUKE 22-22 CO CAR · DUKE 73% → 78%

  8. 08
    Hatteras WelkerAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Hatteras Welker

    Set 4 · DUKE 19-17 CO CAR · DUKE 85% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Dukeaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4131242.024114112010.514.5
46012.5000121016411
46419.10522050031.59.5
48118.389000200219
4013-.3333411900212
32213.000000300002
410231.25835112002116
4000–3151500001
4000–000200000
2102.500200000001
1000–001000000
Team totals4622140.171451114605116992
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418340.375001130010.518.5
4121044.04500243111.513.5
48223.2610000004210
45518.00000220174.59.5
4002.000242170031.53.5
4115.000000000423
4000–8222040002
4000–011920001
2000–1101400211
2000–100400000
12021.000000000002
Team totals4621134.1874451063112221387

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DUKE · CO CAR 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 DUKECO CAR 7

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 3 DUKECO CAR 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 DUKECO CAR 2

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 5 DUKECO CAR 5

Bars above the line = Coastal Carolina leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%7/18
54%7/13
2
64%7/11
36%4/11
3
50%7/14
30%3/10
4
70%7/10
36%4/11
5
75%6/8
57%8/14
6
71%5/7
25%2/8
All
57%39/68
42%28/67

Coastal Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%7/16
54%7/13
2
78%7/9
46%6/13
3
54%7/13
46%6/13
4
78%7/9
50%7/14
5
46%6/13
0%0/7
6
71%5/7
38%3/8
All
58%39/67
43%29/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#DUKE-CO CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CO CARDUKEAttack errAnzley Rinard+1.6
21-1DUKECO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Kaylee Musick+1.7
31-2CO CARCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Kaylee Musick+2.5
42-2CO CARDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.7
52-3DUKECO CAR×4KillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+1.8
62-4CO CARCO CAR×4BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Natalie Hughes, Hatteras Welker+2.6
72-5CO CARCO CAR×4KillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+2.6
82-6CO CARCO CAR×4KillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+2.5
93-6CO CARDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.6
104-6DUKEDUKE×3Attack errViara Parapunova+2.5
115-6DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.6
125-7DUKECO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+2.0
136-7CO CARDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+1.9
146-8DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Kyndal Ganoe+2.1
157-8CO CARDUKEAttack errAnzley Rinard+1.9
167-9DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Kaylee Musick+2.1
178-9CO CARDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.0
188-10DUKECO CAR×7KillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+2.2
198-11CO CARCO CAR×7KillAmarah Johnsonset Kaylee Musick+3.0
208-12CO CARCO CAR×7KillAnzley Rinardset Jonna Spohn+2.8
218-13CO CARCO CAR×7BlockedNataly Moravecblk Anzley Rinard, Amarah Johnson+2.5
228-14CO CARCO CAR×7BlockedNataly Moravecblk Natalie Hughes, Amarah Johnson+2.1
238-15CO CARCO CAR×7AceCoastal Carolinaaced Ashby Zubchevich+1.6
248-16CO CARCO CAR×7KillAnzley Rinardset Jonna Spohn+1.1
259-16CO CARDUKE×3Serve errCoastal Carolina+0.5
2610-16DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Jonna Spohn+1.0
2711-16DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Jonna Spohn+1.4
2811-17DUKECO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+1.4
2912-17CO CARDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.9
3012-18DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+1.4
3113-18CO CARDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+0.9
3214-18DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Jonna Spohn+1.7
3314-19DUKECO CAR×4KillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+1.8
3414-20CO CARCO CAR×4BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Hatteras Welker, Kaylee Musick+1.7
3514-21CO CARCO CAR×4BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Kaylee Musick, Hatteras Welker+1.0
3614-22CO CARCO CAR×4BlockedNikki Quinnblk Hatteras Welker+0.5
3715-22CO CARDUKEBlockedHatteras Welkerblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+0.1
3816-22DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Abby Bucey+0.3
3916-23DUKECO CARServe errDuke+0.4
4017-23CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Charlotte Glass+0.1
4117-24DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Kaylee Musick+0.3
4217-25CO CARCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+0.1
Set 2
11-0DUKEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.7
22-0DUKEDUKEAttack errAnzley Rinard+2.6
32-1DUKECO CARServe errDuke+1.8
43-1CO CARDUKEBlockedAnzley Rinardblk Breonna Goss+1.9
54-1DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Anzley Rinard+2.5
64-2DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Kaylee Musick+1.7
74-3CO CARCO CARAceCoastal Carolina+2.7
85-3CO CARDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.0
95-4DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+2.0
106-4CO CARDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.0
116-5DUKECO CARKillHatteras Welkerset Kaylee Musick+2.0
127-5CO CARDUKEAttack errAnzley Rinard+2.1
138-5DUKEDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.7
148-6DUKECO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+1.8
159-6CO CARDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.0
169-7DUKECO CARBlockedAvery Hamlinblk Amarah Johnson, Kaylee Musick+1.9
1710-7CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.0
1810-8DUKECO CARServe errDuke+1.9
1911-8CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+2.1
2011-9DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+1.9
2112-9CO CARDUKE×3Attack errAvery Hamlin+2.1
2213-9DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Anzley Rinard+2.6
2314-9DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.1
2414-10DUKECO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+1.2
2514-11CO CARCO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+2.2
2614-12CO CARCO CAR×3Attack errAshby Zubchevich+2.9
2715-12CO CARDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.3
2815-13DUKECO CARKillHatteras Welkerset Kaylee Musick+2.1
2916-13CO CARDUKEAttack errHatteras Welker+2.4
3016-14DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Kaylee Musick+2.1
3117-14CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+2.5
3218-14DUKEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.9
3318-15DUKECO CARServe errDuke+1.6
3418-16CO CARCO CARAceCoastal Carolina+3.1
3519-16CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.7
3619-17DUKECO CARBlockedTaylor Williamsblk Natalie Hughes, Amarah Johnson+2.2
3720-17CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Mailinh Godschall+2.8
3820-18DUKECO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Kaylee Musick+2.2
3921-18CO CARDUKEBad setKaylee Musick+3.0
4021-19DUKECO CARServe errDuke+2.2
4122-19CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+3.1
4222-20DUKECO CARServe errDuke+2.1
4323-20CO CARDUKE×3Attack errAnzley Rinard+3.2
4424-20DUKEDUKE×3KillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.4
4525-20DUKEDUKE×3Attack errAnzley Rinard+0.7
Set 3
10-1CO CARCO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Kaylee Musick+3.3
21-1CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+2.3
31-2DUKECO CARServe errDuke+2.4
42-2CO CARDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.3
53-2DUKEDUKEBlockedNatalie Hughesblk Breonna Goss, Taylor Williams+3.3
63-3DUKECO CARKillHatteras Welkerset Kaylee Musick+2.4
74-3CO CARDUKE×4KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.4
85-3DUKEDUKE×4KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+3.3
96-3DUKEDUKE×4AceDukeaced Jonna Spohn+3.0
107-3DUKEDUKE×4AceDukeaced Anzley Rinard+2.7
117-4DUKECO CARKillHatteras Welkerset Kaylee Musick+1.7
128-4CO CARDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Taylor Williams+1.9
139-4DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+2.4
1410-4DUKEDUKE×4AceDuke+1.9
1511-4DUKEDUKE×4BlockedAnzley Rinardblk Avery Hamlin, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+1.5
1611-5DUKECO CARServe errDuke+0.8
1712-5CO CARDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.0
1813-5DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.0
1913-6DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+0.5
2014-6CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+0.7
2114-7DUKECO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+0.5
2215-7CO CARDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Nikki Quinn+0.7
2316-7DUKEDUKEKillTaylor Williamsset Ashby Zubchevich+0.6
2416-8DUKECO CARServe errDuke+0.3
2517-8CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+0.4
2617-9DUKECO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Julia Rivera+0.2
2717-10CO CARCO CARAceCoastal Carolina+0.5
2818-10DUKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
2918-11DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+0.3
3018-12CO CARCO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+0.7
3119-12CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+0.7
3219-13DUKECO CARServe errDuke+0.4
3320-13CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+0.7
3420-14DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+0.4
3521-14CO CARDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.6
3621-15DUKECO CARServe errDuke+0.3
3722-15CO CARDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Charlotte Glass+0.5
3822-16DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+0.2
3922-17CO CARCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+0.5
4023-17CO CARDUKEKillCharlotte Glassset Mailinh Godschall+0.7
4123-18DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+0.2
4224-18CO CARDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.5
4324-19DUKECO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+0.1
4425-19CO CARDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+0.2
Set 4
11-0DUKEDUKE×3KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.8
22-0DUKEDUKE×3BlockedViara Parapunovablk Nikki Quinn, Breonna Goss+2.7
33-0DUKEDUKE×3Attack errNatalie Hughes+2.5
43-1DUKECO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+1.7
53-2CO CARCO CARAceCoastal Carolinaaced Ashby Zubchevich+2.7
64-2CO CARDUKEBlockedNatalie Hughesblk Breonna Goss+2.0
75-2DUKEDUKEBlockedHatteras Welkerblk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin+2.6
85-3DUKECO CARServe errDuke+1.8
95-4CO CARCO CARBlockedAvery Hamlinblk Hatteras Welker, Isabella Loeswick+2.8
106-4CO CARDUKEBlockedHatteras Welkerblk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin+2.1
116-5DUKECO CARBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Hatteras Welker, Isabella Loeswick+2.1
126-6CO CARCO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+3.2
137-6CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+2.3
148-6DUKEDUKEAttack errViara Parapunova+3.1
158-7DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+2.2
169-7CO CARDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Avery Hamlin+2.3
1710-7DUKEDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Taylor Williams+3.0
1811-7DUKEDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.6
1912-7DUKEDUKE×5AceDukeaced Abby Bucey+2.2
2013-7DUKEDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
2113-8DUKECO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+0.9
2213-9CO CARCO CARBlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Anzley Rinard+1.8
2314-9CO CARDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.5
2415-9DUKEDUKEBlockedAnzley Rinardblk Nikki Quinn, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+1.7
2515-10DUKECO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+0.9
2616-10CO CARDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.1
2716-11DUKECO CAR×5Serve errDuke+0.8
2816-12CO CARCO CAR×5KillNatalie Hughes+1.7
2916-13CO CARCO CAR×5BlockedTaylor Williamsblk Hatteras Welker, Natalie Hughes+2.3
3016-14CO CARCO CAR×5KillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+3.1
3116-15CO CARCO CAR×5KillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+3.9
3217-15CO CARDUKEServe errCoastal Carolina+3.1
3317-16DUKECO CARBlockedAvery Hamlinblk Hatteras Welker, Viara Parapunova+2.9
3417-17CO CARCO CARAttack errAvery Hamlin+4.9
3518-17CO CARDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+3.6
3619-17DUKEDUKEAttack errHatteras Welker+4.9
3719-18DUKECO CARKillIsabele Filardoset Kaylee Musick+3.1
3819-19CO CARCO CARKillHatteras Welkerset Jonna Spohn+5.6
3920-19CO CARDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+4.3
4020-20DUKECO CARKillIsabele Filardoset Kaylee Musick+4.3
4121-20CO CARDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+4.7
4221-21DUKECO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+4.7
4321-22CO CARCO CARAttack errAshby Zubchevich+8.1
4422-22CO CARDUKEAttack errAnzley Rinard+5.4
4522-23DUKECO CARServe errDuke+6.8
4623-23CO CARDUKE×3Serve errCoastal Carolina+6.4
4724-23DUKEDUKE×3Bad setIsabella Loeswick+11.4
4825-23DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+10.7

Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).