FinalTue, Sep 8, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

0:3

HomeACC

Duke def. Charleston So. 3–0

(25-21, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
CHARSO	21	23	19	0
DUKE	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DUKE above 50 · CHARSO below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Charleston So. — set 1, CHARSO 17-17 DUKE. Attack error by Ashby Zubchevich. DUKE win probability 93% → 91%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CHARSO 7.3%92.7% DUKE

Charleston So. wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.1%

3-2

4.3%

Duke wins

3-0

49.6%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

12.1%

CHARSO break %: 35.9% vs this opp
DUKE break %: 46.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ashby ZubchevichAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Ashby Zubchevich
Set 1 · CHARSO 17-17 DUKE · CHARSO 7% → 9%
02
Zoe Gillen-MalveauxKill+1.6%
Kill by Zoe Gillen-Malveaux (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 1 · CHARSO 18-20 DUKE · DUKE 92% → 94%
03
Zoe Gillen-MalveauxKill+1.4%
Kill by Zoe Gillen-Malveaux (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 2 · CHARSO 23-25 DUKE · DUKE 97% → 99%
04
Nataly MoravecAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Nataly Moravec
Set 1 · CHARSO 9-7 DUKE · CHARSO 9% → 10%
05
Nataly MoravecAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Nataly Moravec
Set 1 · CHARSO 6-2 DUKE · CHARSO 11% → 12%
06
Emma BednarekKill+1.3%
Kill by Emma Bednarek (set by Cara McLean)
Set 1 · CHARSO 18-18 DUKE · CHARSO 8% → 9%
07
Zoe Gillen-MalveauxKill+1.3%
Kill by Zoe Gillen-Malveaux (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 1 · CHARSO 18-19 DUKE · DUKE 91% → 92%
08
Avery HamlinAttack error+1.3%
Avery Hamlin stuffed by Brynn Minter & Emma Bednarek
Set 1 · CHARSO 5-2 DUKE · CHARSO 9% → 11%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Charleston So.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Brynn MinterOH	3	10	4	28	.214	1	1	1	3	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
10Emma BednarekMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	7
14Faith BurchOH	3	6	2	22	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
17Adeline WielerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	3	10	0	0	0	0	2
5Tristin SuttonS	3	1	0	3	.333	13	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
11Dillia LowryMB	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Jenna KitchensOPP	3	9	2	19	.368	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
4Presley MorrisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
13Cara McLeanS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
15Kylee RobertsMB	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
20Surima AkatOH	1	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Emersyn ReiterOH	1	0	2	9	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Grace SmithMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	15	113	.159	32	4	4	39	4	1	8	5	63

Dukehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Ashby ZubchevichOH	3	21	5	36	.444	0	1	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	22.5
8Nataly MoravecOH	3	15	4	38	.289	1	1	1	13	2	0	3	1.5	17.5
0Zoe Gillen-MalveauxMB	3	8	2	12	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
5Breonna GossMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
12Avery HamlinOH	3	4	5	12	-.083	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	4
23Nikki QuinnS	3	0	0	3	.000	39	0	3	6	0	0	2	1	1
10Mailinh GodschallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	1	13	0	0	0	0	2
19Alyce DonoghueL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
22Charlotte GlassS	2	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Grace ThrowerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Carlyle JohnsonOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	16	110	.318	49	4	8	53	4	1	12	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 CHARSO · DUKE 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 5 CHARSODUKE 4

Set 2*

23-25

Longest run 6 CHARSODUKE 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 CHARSODUKE 4

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = Charleston So. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Charleston So.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%5/10	0%0/4
2	50%4/8	29%2/7
3	80%4/5	64%7/11
4	50%4/8	20%1/5
5	57%4/7	43%3/7
6	33%4/12	33%2/6
All	50%25/50	38%15/40

Duke

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	50%5/10
2	36%4/11	50%4/8
3	80%4/5	20%1/5
4	57%4/7	50%4/8
5	67%4/6	43%3/7
6	100%4/4	67%8/12
All	63%25/40	50%25/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	CHARSO-DUKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
2	1-1	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.6
3	1-2	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.6
4	2-2	DUKE	CHARSO×5	Kill	Faith Burch	set Tristin Sutton	+0.6
5	3-2	CHARSO	CHARSO×5	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Cara McLean	+1.0
6	4-2	CHARSO	CHARSO×5	Attack err	Nataly Moravec	blk Emma Bednarek, Jenna Kitchens	+1.2
7	5-2	CHARSO	CHARSO×5	Attack err	Avery Hamlin	blk Brynn Minter, Emma Bednarek	+1.3
8	6-2	CHARSO	CHARSO×5	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.4
9	6-3	CHARSO	DUKE	Bad set	Cara McLean		+0.8
10	7-3	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Emma Bednarek	set Cara McLean	+1.1
11	7-4	CHARSO	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.8
12	7-5	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
13	7-6	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Avery Hamlin	+1.2
14	7-7	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Emersyn Reiter	blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nikki Quinn	+1.1
15	8-7	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.9
16	9-7	CHARSO	CHARSO	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.4
17	9-8	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
18	10-8	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Dillia Lowry	set Cara McLean	+1.1
19	10-9	CHARSO	DUKE×4	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
20	10-10	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
21	10-11	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Emersyn Reiter	blk Nikki Quinn, Breonna Goss	+1.2
22	10-12	DUKE	DUKE×4	Ace	DUKE server	aced Brynn Minter	+1.0
23	11-12	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Presley Morris	+0.7
24	11-13	CHARSO	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
25	11-14	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
26	11-15	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Brynn Minter		+0.7
27	11-16	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Dillia Lowry		+0.5
28	12-16	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.3
29	13-16	CHARSO	CHARSO	Attack err	Avery Hamlin	blk Emma Bednarek, Faith Burch	+0.6
30	13-17	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
31	14-17	DUKE	CHARSO×4	Bad set	Nikki Quinn		+0.4
32	15-17	CHARSO	CHARSO×4	Attack err	Avery Hamlin		+0.9
33	16-17	CHARSO	CHARSO×4	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.3
34	17-17	CHARSO	CHARSO×4	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+1.7
35	17-18	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
36	18-18	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Emma Bednarek	set Cara McLean	+1.3
37	18-19	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
38	18-20	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
39	19-20	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Emma Bednarek	set Cara McLean	+1.1
40	19-21	CHARSO	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
41	19-22	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
42	19-23	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Dillia Lowry		+0.7
43	20-23	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Dillia Lowry	set Cara McLean	+0.2
44	20-24	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.4
45	21-24	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Faith Burch	set Tristin Sutton	+0.1
46	21-25	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	CHARSO	DUKE	Serve err	CHARSO server		+0.4
2	0-2	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.5
3	1-2	DUKE	CHARSO	Attack err	Avery Hamlin		+0.3
4	2-2	CHARSO	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.6
5	2-3	CHARSO	DUKE	Attack err	Emma Bednarek	blk Breonna Goss	+0.4
6	2-4	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
7	3-4	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Faith Burch	set Brynn Minter	+0.4
8	3-5	CHARSO	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
9	3-6	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Brynn Minter		+0.4
10	3-7	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Emma Bednarek	blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nataly Moravec	+0.3
11	4-7	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.2
12	4-8	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
13	4-9	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Surima Akat	+0.3
14	5-9	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Presley Morris	+0.2
15	5-10	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
16	5-11	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Brynn Minter		+0.2
17	6-11	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.1
18	6-12	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
19	7-12	DUKE	CHARSO×6	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.1
20	8-12	CHARSO	CHARSO×6	Ace	CHARSO server	aced Nataly Moravec	+0.3
21	9-12	CHARSO	CHARSO×6	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+0.4
22	10-12	CHARSO	CHARSO×6	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+0.5
23	11-12	CHARSO	CHARSO×6	Ace	CHARSO server	aced Nataly Moravec	+0.7
24	12-12	CHARSO	CHARSO×6	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.9
25	12-13	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.6
26	13-13	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.7
27	13-14	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.6
28	14-14	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Faith Burch	set Tristin Sutton	+0.7
29	14-15	CHARSO	DUKE	Attack err	Jenna Kitchens	blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nataly Moravec	+0.7
30	14-16	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.8
31	15-16	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Cara McLean	+0.6
32	16-16	CHARSO	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+1.1
33	16-17	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
34	16-18	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Jenna Kitchens		+0.9
35	17-18	DUKE	CHARSO	Attack err	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	blk Surima Akat, Emma Bednarek	+0.6
36	17-19	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
37	18-19	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.7
38	18-20	CHARSO	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
39	18-21	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Charlotte Glass	set Tristin Sutton	+0.8
40	18-22	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Charlotte Glass	+0.5
41	19-22	DUKE	CHARSO	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+0.2
42	19-23	CHARSO	DUKE	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
43	20-23	DUKE	CHARSO×3	Kill	Faith Burch	set Tristin Sutton	+0.2
44	21-23	CHARSO	CHARSO×3	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.5
45	22-23	CHARSO	CHARSO×3	Ace	CHARSO server	aced Team	+1.1
46	22-24	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
47	23-24	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.7
48	23-25	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
Set 3
1	1-0	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.2
2	2-0	CHARSO	CHARSO	Attack err	Avery Hamlin		+0.3
3	2-1	CHARSO	DUKE×3	Serve err	CHARSO server		+0.2
4	2-2	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Faith Burch		+0.3
5	2-3	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.3
6	3-3	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Faith Burch	set Tristin Sutton	+0.2
7	3-4	CHARSO	DUKE	Attack err	Brynn Minter		+0.2
8	3-5	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
9	4-5	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Emma Bednarek	set Tristin Sutton	+0.2
10	4-6	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
11	5-6	DUKE	CHARSO×3	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Cara McLean	+0.2
12	6-6	CHARSO	CHARSO×3	Ace	CHARSO server	aced Team	+0.3
13	7-6	CHARSO	CHARSO×3	Serve err	CHARSO server		+0.4
14	7-7	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
15	7-8	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
16	8-8	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.2
17	9-8	CHARSO	CHARSO	Attack err	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux		+0.4
18	9-9	CHARSO	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nataly Moravec	+0.2
19	9-10	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Kylee Roberts	blk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss	+0.3
20	9-11	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.3
21	9-12	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
22	10-12	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.2
23	10-13	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
24	10-14	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Charlotte Glass	+0.2
25	11-14	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Brynn Minter	set Tristin Sutton	+0.1
26	11-15	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
27	11-16	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Grace Smith	+0.1
28	12-16	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.1
29	12-17	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.1
30	13-17	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Tristin Sutton	set Presley Morris	+0.1
31	14-17	CHARSO	CHARSO	Kill	Emma Bednarek		+0.2
32	14-18	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
33	15-18	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.1
34	15-19	CHARSO	DUKE	Serve err	CHARSO server		+0.1
35	16-19	DUKE	CHARSO	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.1
36	17-19	CHARSO	CHARSO	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Kylee Roberts	+0.3
37	17-20	CHARSO	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
38	17-21	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Alyce Donoghue	+0.2
39	17-22	DUKE	DUKE×3	Ace	DUKE server	aced Jenna Kitchens	+0.1
40	18-22	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Cara McLean	+0.0
41	18-23	CHARSO	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.1
42	19-23	DUKE	CHARSO	Kill	Jenna Kitchens	set Tristin Sutton	+0.0
43	19-24	CHARSO	DUKE	Serve err	CHARSO server		+0.1
44	19-25	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Faith Burch	blk Nataly Moravec, Breonna Goss	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Charleston So. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.