Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026

Duke def. Marshall 3–1

Duke beat visiting Marshall 3-1 (25-18, 25-18, 26-28, 28-26) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026. Duke's Nataly Moravec led with 21 kills.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set1234Sets
MARSH181828261
DUKE252526283

Win probability

Duke above 50 · Marshall below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.8% MARSHrally 194 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.8% to Marshall — set 4, MARSH 25-24 DUKE. Attack error by Ashby Zubchevich. DUKE win probability 85% → 74%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARSH 25.4%74.6% DUKE

Marshall wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.7%
3-2
12.2%

Duke wins

3-0
26.7%
3-1
28.5%
3-2
19.4%
MARSH break %
37.9% vs this opp
DUKE break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ashby ZubchevichAttack error+10.8%

    Attack error by Ashby Zubchevich

    Set 4 · MARSH 25-24 DUKE · MARSH 15% → 26%

  2. 02

    Emma Barnett stuffed by Zoe Gillen-Malveaux & Charlotte Glass

    Set 4 · MARSH 23-24 DUKE · DUKE 81% → 91%

  3. 03
    Breonna GossBlock+10.0%

    Beatrice Ciccarelli stuffed by Breonna Goss

    Set 4 · MARSH 25-26 DUKE · DUKE 81% → 91%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Mailinh Godschall)

    Set 4 · MARSH 26-28 DUKE · DUKE 91% → 100%

  5. 05
    MarshallService error+7.5%

    Marshall service error

    Set 4 · MARSH 25-25 DUKE · DUKE 74% → 81%

  6. 06
    Emma BarnettKill+6.6%

    Kill by Emma Barnett (set by Isabella Nieves)

    Set 4 · MARSH 24-24 DUKE · MARSH 9% → 15%

  7. 07
    Emma BarnettAttack error+6.6%

    Attack error by Emma Barnett

    Set 4 · MARSH 26-26 DUKE · MARSH 9% → 15%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ashby Zubchevich (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 4 · MARSH 26-27 DUKE · DUKE 85% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418550.26020019100018
413636.19411113200014
410529.1721002012212
46212.333012200429
47117.35300010010.57.5
4001.0002710200001
4000–3012310000
3000–1701200000
2027-.286000000211
2002.00000000010.50.5
2000–000100000
1117.000000000001
1000–311200001
Team totals5522161.2055446677110690
Dukehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421452.327011182052.524.5
419745.26703411202123
410022.4550014014313
48120.3501113004211
46318.16700000094.510.5
42021.000550280010.52.5
4000–8221600002
4000–000900000
2001.00000000010.50.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
1000–002000000
Team totals6615160.3196471369412614104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MARSH · DUKE 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 MARSHDUKE 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 MARSHDUKE 5

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 MARSHDUKE 4

Set 4

26-28

Longest run 3 MARSHDUKE 4

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = Marshall leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marshall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
29%4/14
2
46%11/24
31%5/16
3
92%11/12
21%3/14
4
58%11/19
39%7/18
5
71%10/14
31%5/16
6
50%9/18
23%3/13
All
61%63/103
30%27/91

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%12/14
23%3/13
2
69%11/16
45%9/20
3
61%11/18
42%8/19
4
79%11/14
27%4/15
5
67%10/15
41%7/17
6
64%9/14
47%9/19
All
70%64/91
39%40/103

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

194 rallies

#MARSH-DUKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+1.5
21-1MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
32-1DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+1.5
42-2MARSHDUKEAttack errNataly Moravec+1.4
53-2DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+1.6
63-3MARSHDUKEAttack errMaddie Smith+1.5
74-3DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+1.6
85-3MARSHMARSHAceMarshallaced Ashby Zubchevich+2.5
95-4MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+1.5
105-5DUKEDUKEAttack errMaddie Smith+2.3
116-5DUKEMARSHAttack errAshby Zubchevich+1.7
126-6MARSHDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.6
137-6DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+1.7
148-6MARSHMARSHAttack errAshby Zubchevich+2.7
158-7MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.7
169-7DUKEMARSHKillCarys Kerrset Maya Hunt+1.9
179-8MARSHDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.7
1810-8DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
1910-9MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.8
2011-9DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
2111-10MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.8
2212-10DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.1
2312-11MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.9
2413-11DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Maya Hunt+2.2
2513-12MARSHDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
2613-13DUKEDUKE×5KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+3.0
2713-14DUKEDUKE×5KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+3.0
2813-15DUKEDUKE×5Attack errCarys Kerr+2.8
2913-16DUKEDUKE×5AceDukeaced Maddie Smith+2.4
3014-16DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+1.4
3114-17MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+1.7
3214-18DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+1.9
3315-18DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Maya Hunt+1.0
3415-19MARSHDUKE×3KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.3
3515-20DUKEDUKE×3KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.3
3615-21DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Maddie Smith+0.7
3716-21DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Emma Sayre+0.3
3816-22MARSHDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.4
3917-22DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+0.2
4017-23MARSHDUKEBlockedMaddie Smithblk Avery Hamlin, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+0.3
4118-23DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.1
4218-24MARSHDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.2
4318-25DUKEDUKEAceDuke+0.1
Set 2
10-1MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+1.1
20-2DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.5
31-2DUKEMARSHAttack errBreonna Goss+1.0
42-2MARSHMARSHKillLogan Henderson+1.6
52-3MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.1
63-3DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+1.2
74-3MARSHMARSHBlockedNataly Moravecblk Logan Henderson+1.9
84-4MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.2
95-4DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+1.3
105-5MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.2
115-6DUKEDUKEAceDuke+1.8
126-6DUKEMARSH×3BlockedNataly Moravecblk Lilly Howell, Beatrice Ciccarelli+1.3
137-6MARSHMARSH×3KillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+2.0
148-6MARSHMARSH×3Attack errZoe Gillen-Malveaux+2.1
158-7MARSHDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.3
169-7DUKEMARSHBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Lilly Howell+1.5
179-8MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.4
189-9DUKEDUKEAttack errEmma Barnett+2.1
1910-9DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+1.5
2010-10MARSHDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2110-11DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.1
2210-12DUKEDUKE×3BlockedLogan Hendersonblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+2.0
2311-12DUKEMARSHAttack errAvery Hamlin+1.3
2411-13MARSHDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2511-14DUKEDUKE×5BlockedLogan Hendersonblk Breonna Goss, Nataly Moravec+1.8
2611-15DUKEDUKE×5AceDukeaced Emma Barnett+1.5
2711-16DUKEDUKE×5KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.1
2811-17DUKEDUKE×5BlockedMarae Reillyblk Avery Hamlin+0.8
2912-17DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.4
3013-17MARSHMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+0.8
3113-18MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.7
3214-18DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.5
3314-19MARSHDUKE×4KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.7
3414-20DUKEDUKE×4BlockedLilly Howellblk Nataly Moravec, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+0.6
3514-21DUKEDUKE×4KillNikki Quinnset Mailinh Godschall+0.3
3614-22DUKEDUKE×4BlockedMaddie Smithblk Nikki Quinn, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+0.1
3715-22DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Isabella Nieves·
3816-22MARSHMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+0.1
3916-23MARSHDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.1
4017-23DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves·
4117-24MARSHDUKEBad setIsabella Nieves+0.1
4218-24DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves·
4318-25MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn·
Set 3
11-0DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Nikki Quinn+0.6
21-1MARSHDUKE×3KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.6
31-2DUKEDUKE×3AceDuke+0.8
41-3DUKEDUKE×3Attack errEmma Barnett+0.8
52-3DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Emma Sayre+0.5
62-4MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.5
73-4DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+0.6
84-4MARSHMARSHAttack errNataly Moravec+0.9
94-5MARSHDUKE×3KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+0.6
104-6DUKEDUKE×3BlockedLogan Hendersonblk Nataly Moravec, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+0.9
114-7DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.8
125-7DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+0.5
135-8MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+0.5
146-8DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+0.5
157-8MARSHMARSHAttack errLilly Howell+0.9
167-9MARSHDUKE×4KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.6
177-10DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.8
187-11DUKEDUKE×4AceDukeaced Emma Sayre+0.7
197-12DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.6
208-12DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+0.3
218-13MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.4
229-13DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.3
2310-13MARSHMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Emma Barnett+0.6
2410-14MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+0.5
2510-15DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+0.6
2611-15DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.3
2711-16MARSHDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+0.4
2812-16DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+0.3
2913-16MARSHMARSHAttack errNataly Moravec+0.6
3013-17MARSHDUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.5
3113-18DUKEDUKEKillNikki Quinnset Mailinh Godschall+0.6
3214-18DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+0.3
3314-19MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.4
3415-19DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.3
3515-20MARSHDUKEBlockedLilly Howellblk Ashby Zubchevich, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+0.4
3616-20DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+0.2
3717-20MARSHMARSHAttack errAshby Zubchevich+0.6
3817-21MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.5
3918-21DUKEMARSHServe errDuke+0.4
4018-22MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+0.5
4119-22DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+0.3
4220-22MARSHMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+0.8
4320-23MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.9
4421-23DUKEMARSH×4KillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+0.5
4522-23MARSHMARSH×4AceMarshallaced Ashby Zubchevich+1.4
4623-23MARSHMARSH×4BlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Marae Reilly, Logan Henderson+2.6
4724-23MARSHMARSH×4KillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+3.7
4824-24MARSHDUKEBlockedLogan Hendersonblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nataly Moravec+2.6
4925-24DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.6
5025-25MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.6
5126-25DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+2.6
5226-26MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+2.6
5327-26DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+2.6
5428-26MARSHMARSHBlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Lia Beverly+4.2
Set 4
11-0MARSHMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+2.6
21-1MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+1.7
32-1DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+1.8
43-1MARSHMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.8
53-2MARSHDUKE×4KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.8
63-3DUKEDUKE×4KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.7
73-4DUKEDUKE×4Attack errMaddie Smith+2.6
83-5DUKEDUKE×4BlockedMaddie Smithblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Avery Hamlin+2.4
94-5DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+1.6
104-6MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.6
115-6DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Emma Barnett+1.7
125-7MARSHDUKEAttack errEmma Barnett+1.7
136-7DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+1.7
146-8MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
156-9DUKEDUKEAttack errEmma Barnett+2.3
167-9DUKEMARSH×3KillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+1.5
178-9MARSHMARSH×3BlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Logan Henderson+2.6
189-9MARSHMARSH×3AceMarshallaced Nataly Moravec+3.0
199-10MARSHDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+2.1
2010-10DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+2.2
2110-11MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.1
2211-11DUKEMARSH×3Serve errDuke+2.2
2312-11MARSHMARSH×3KillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+3.6
2413-11MARSHMARSH×3KillMaddie Smithset Logan Henderson+3.8
2513-12MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.3
2614-12DUKEMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.8
2714-13MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+2.4
2814-14DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.8
2915-14DUKEMARSH×3KillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+2.9
3016-14MARSHMARSH×3Attack errZoe Gillen-Malveaux+4.4
3117-14MARSHMARSH×3AceMarshallaced Nataly Moravec+4.3
3217-15MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.3
3318-15DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+3.1
3418-16MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.4
3519-16DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+3.2
3619-17MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.4
3720-17DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+3.4
3820-18MARSHDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+2.4
3920-19DUKEDUKEBlockedBeatrice Ciccarelliblk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin+4.7
4021-19DUKEMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+4.2
4121-20MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+3.3
4221-21DUKEDUKEBlockedLogan Hendersonblk Nataly Moravec, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+6.2
4322-21DUKEMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+5.1
4422-22MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Avery Hamlin+4.7
4523-22DUKEMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Emma Sayre+6.0
4623-23MARSHDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+5.5
4723-24DUKEDUKEBlockedEmma Barnettblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Charlotte Glass+10.0
4824-24DUKEMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+6.6
4925-24MARSHMARSHAttack errAshby Zubchevich+10.8
5025-25MARSHDUKEServe errMarshall+7.5
5125-26DUKEDUKEBlockedBeatrice Ciccarelliblk Breonna Goss+10.0
5226-26DUKEMARSHAttack errEmma Barnett+6.6
5326-27MARSHDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+6.6
5426-28DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Mailinh Godschall+8.8

Score shown after each rally, Marshall first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).