FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayACC

0:3

HomeSUMMIT-LEAGUE

St. Thomas (MN) def. Miami (FL) 3–0

(25-23, 25-17, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIAMI	23	17	19	0
STTHOM	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STTHOM above 50 · MIAMI below

Biggest swing: 10.4% to St. Thomas (MN) — set 1, MIAMI 23-25 STTHOM. Asia Harvey stuffed by Anya Schmidt & Reilly Kurth. STTHOM win probability 50% → 60%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MIAMI 60.5%39.5% STTHOM

Miami (FL) wins

3-0

17.4%

3-1

23.1%

3-2

19.9%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0

8.6%

3-1

14.4%

3-2

16.5%

MIAMI break %: 44.1% vs this opp
STTHOM break %: 42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Asia HarveyAttack error+10.4%
Asia Harvey stuffed by Anya Schmidt & Reilly Kurth
Set 1 · MIAMI 23-25 STTHOM · STTHOM 50% → 60%
02
Audrey KoconKill+9.9%
Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Taylor McNear)
Set 1 · MIAMI 23-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 40% → 50%
03
Ella ThompsonAttack error+7.2%
Ella Thompson stuffed by Reilly Kurth & Audrey Kocon
Set 1 · MIAMI 23-23 STTHOM · STTHOM 33% → 40%
04
MIAMI serverAce+5.6%
Miami (FL) ace on Anya Schmidt
Set 1 · MIAMI 21-20 STTHOM · MIAMI 58% → 64%
05
Asia HarveyKill+5.3%
Kill by Asia Harvey (set by Ariana Rodriguez)
Set 1 · MIAMI 22-20 STTHOM · MIAMI 64% → 69%
06
Ella ThompsonKill+5.1%
Kill by Ella Thompson (set by Ariana Rodriguez)
Set 1 · MIAMI 20-20 STTHOM · MIAMI 53% → 58%
07
STTHOM serverAce+4.8%
St. Thomas (MN) ace on Stalena Van Deusen
Set 1 · MIAMI 18-20 STTHOM · STTHOM 45% → 50%
08
Ruth MartinezAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Ruth Martinez
Set 1 · MIAMI 23-22 STTHOM · STTHOM 28% → 33%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Miami (FL)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Asia HarveyOH	3	9	4	24	.208	0	1	1	4	3	0	1	0.5	10.5
21Denitsa AngelovaMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
1Ruth MartinezOH	3	1	4	13	-.231	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
17Ella ThompsonOH	2	2	2	13	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
6Ariana RodriguezS	2	0	0	3	.000	10	1	2	6	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Adrianna BridgesMB	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Gaby ArroyoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	14	1	0	0	0	1
7Stalena Van DeusenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
11Sonja DanilovicOH	2	3	2	16	.063	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	2.5	5.5
23Lal AkinMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
13Billie ReiterS	2	0	0	3	.000	7	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
4Logan WileyMB	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
5Olivia DurstL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	15	91	.066	19	3	6	38	8	2	10	7	59

St. Thomas (MN)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Anya SchmidtOH	3	13	6	27	.259	2	2	2	6	2	0	3	1.5	16.5
7Ellie GustafsonOH	3	11	2	28	.321	1	2	0	12	0	0	0	0	13
24Audrey KoconOH	3	10	8	21	.095	2	1	5	10	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
22Addie SchmotzerMB	3	5	1	15	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
21Reilly KurthMB	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
5Morgan KealyS	3	3	0	10	.300	32	1	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Kira BrundageL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	1
3Taylor McNearL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
2Bryn LunskiOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Sophia Del ValleL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	20	113	.221	42	8	15	48	3	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 MIAMI · STTHOM 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 MIAMISTTHOM 5

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 MIAMISTTHOM 6

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 MIAMISTTHOM 4

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = Miami (FL) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Miami (FL)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	46%6/13
2	64%7/11	46%6/13
3	46%6/13	30%3/10
4	55%6/11	25%2/8
5	50%6/12	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	0%0/6
All	51%38/74	35%21/60

St. Thomas (MN)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	65%11/17
2	58%7/12	22%2/9
3	78%7/9	36%4/11
4	60%6/10	60%9/15
5	100%6/6	50%6/12
6	55%6/11	40%4/10
All	65%39/60	49%36/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	MIAMI-STTHOM	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt		+2.4
2	1-1	STTHOM	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+1.8
3	2-1	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Kill	Adrianna Bridges	set Ella Thompson	+2.4
4	3-1	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.3
5	3-2	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
6	4-2	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+1.8
7	4-3	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
8	5-3	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.8
9	5-4	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
10	6-4	STTHOM	MIAMI×5	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.9
11	7-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Gaby Arroyo	+2.3
12	8-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+2.1
13	9-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson	blk Denitsa Angelova, Ariana Rodriguez	+1.8
14	10-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Kill	Asia Harvey		+1.5
15	10-5	MIAMI	STTHOM×3	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.0
16	10-6	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.6
17	10-7	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+2.0
18	11-7	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.7
19	11-8	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+1.5
20	12-8	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+1.7
21	12-9	MIAMI	STTHOM×4	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Audrey Kocon	+1.5
22	12-10	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+2.4
23	12-11	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Taylor McNear	+2.8
24	12-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Attack err	Adrianna Bridges		+3.2
25	13-12	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Anya Schmidt	blk Adrianna Bridges, Asia Harvey	+2.5
26	13-13	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
27	14-13	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.6
28	14-14	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.6
29	14-15	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Ruth Martinez		+3.7
30	15-15	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.8
31	16-15	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson		+3.8
32	16-16	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Kira Brundage	+2.9
33	16-17	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Gaby Arroyo	+4.2
34	17-17	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Ruth Martinez	set Ariana Rodriguez	+3.1
35	17-18	MIAMI	STTHOM	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+3.4
36	18-18	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+3.3
37	18-19	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+3.6
38	18-20	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Stalena Van Deusen	+4.8
39	19-20	STTHOM	MIAMI×5	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+3.1
40	20-20	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Kill	Ella Thompson	set Ariana Rodriguez	+5.1
41	21-20	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Anya Schmidt	+5.6
42	22-20	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+5.3
43	23-20	MIAMI	MIAMI×5	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+4.1
44	23-21	MIAMI	STTHOM×5	Serve err	MIAMI server		+1.8
45	23-22	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Attack err	Ruth Martinez		+4.3
46	23-23	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Attack err	Ella Thompson	blk Reilly Kurth, Audrey Kocon	+7.2
47	23-24	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Taylor McNear	+9.9
48	23-25	STTHOM	STTHOM×5	Attack err	Asia Harvey	blk Anya Schmidt, Reilly Kurth	+10.4
Set 2
1	1-0	MIAMI	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+2.6
2	1-1	MIAMI	STTHOM	Attack err	Ella Thompson	blk Reilly Kurth, Anya Schmidt	+2.0
3	2-1	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+2.0
4	2-2	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.1
5	2-3	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+2.8
6	3-3	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Sonja Danilovic	set Ariana Rodriguez	+2.1
7	3-4	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.2
8	4-4	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Addie Schmotzer	blk Sonja Danilovic	+2.2
9	4-5	MIAMI	STTHOM	Attack err	Denitsa Angelova	blk Addie Schmotzer	+2.3
10	5-5	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+2.2
11	5-6	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.3
12	5-7	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+3.1
13	6-7	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.2
14	6-8	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.4
15	6-9	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Lal Akin	blk Reilly Kurth, Anya Schmidt	+3.1
16	7-9	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Ariana Rodriguez	+2.2
17	7-10	MIAMI	STTHOM	Serve err	MIAMI server		+2.5
18	8-10	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Lal Akin	set Ariana Rodriguez	+2.2
19	8-11	MIAMI	STTHOM	Serve err	MIAMI server		+2.5
20	9-11	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+2.2
21	9-12	MIAMI	STTHOM×6	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.6
22	9-13	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Sonja Danilovic	+3.2
23	9-14	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Attack err	Sonja Danilovic		+2.7
24	9-15	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Anya Schmidt	+2.2
25	9-16	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
26	9-17	STTHOM	STTHOM×6	Kill	Addie Schmotzer		+1.2
27	10-17	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Sonja Danilovic	set Ariana Rodriguez	+0.5
28	10-18	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+0.8
29	10-19	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Ruth Martinez	blk Morgan Kealy, Reilly Kurth	+0.7
30	11-19	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.3
31	11-20	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Anya Schmidt	+0.4
32	12-20	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.2
33	12-21	MIAMI	STTHOM	Serve err	MIAMI server		+0.3
34	13-21	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Audrey Kocon		+0.1
35	13-22	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
36	14-22	STTHOM	MIAMI×3	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.1
37	15-22	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+0.2
38	16-22	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Kira Brundage	+0.4
39	16-23	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.6
40	16-24	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Team	+0.2
41	17-24	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.0
42	17-25	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Asia Harvey	+2.0
2	0-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Asia Harvey	+2.0
3	1-2	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Logan Wiley	set Billie Reiter	+1.5
4	1-3	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.6
5	1-4	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Asia Harvey	+2.1
6	2-4	STTHOM	MIAMI×3	Kill	Sonja Danilovic	set Billie Reiter	+1.4
7	3-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Denitsa Angelova, Sonja Danilovic	+2.0
8	4-4	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Ace	MIAMI server	aced Anya Schmidt	+2.1
9	4-5	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
10	4-6	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.2
11	5-6	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.6
12	6-6	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.2
13	6-7	MIAMI	STTHOM×3	Serve err	MIAMI server		+1.8
14	6-8	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Ruth Martinez		+2.3
15	6-9	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Audrey Kocon	+2.3
16	7-9	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+1.6
17	7-10	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
18	8-10	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Billie Reiter	+1.6
19	8-11	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
20	8-12	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Asia Harvey		+2.3
21	9-12	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Asia Harvey	set Billie Reiter	+1.4
22	9-13	MIAMI	STTHOM	Serve err	MIAMI server		+1.8
23	10-13	STTHOM	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+1.5
24	11-13	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+2.3
25	12-13	MIAMI	MIAMI×3	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Sonja Danilovic, Logan Wiley	+2.6
26	12-14	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+2.2
27	12-15	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Kira Brundage	+2.7
28	13-15	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Logan Wiley	set Billie Reiter	+1.8
29	14-15	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Denitsa Angelova, Sonja Danilovic	+2.7
30	14-16	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.4
31	15-16	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Denitsa Angelova	set Billie Reiter	+2.2
32	15-17	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
33	15-18	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Ellie Gustafson	+3.1
34	16-18	STTHOM	MIAMI	Kill	Denitsa Angelova	set Billie Reiter	+1.9
35	16-19	MIAMI	STTHOM×4	Kill	Addie Schmotzer	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
36	16-20	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.7
37	16-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Ace	STTHOM server	aced Ruth Martinez	+1.9
38	16-22	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Attack err	Sonja Danilovic		+1.1
39	17-22	STTHOM	MIAMI	Serve err	STTHOM server		+0.4
40	17-23	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.7
41	17-24	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Logan Wiley		+0.3
42	18-24	STTHOM	MIAMI	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.0
43	19-24	MIAMI	MIAMI	Attack err	Audrey Kocon	blk Logan Wiley	+0.1
44	19-25	MIAMI	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Taylor McNear	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Miami (FL) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.