Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Miami (FL) def. Wake Forest 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Miami (FL) 72.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Miami (FL) beat visiting Wake Forest 3-1 (25-17, 27-25, 22-25, 25-15) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Miami (FL)'s Ruth Martinez led with 21 kills, and Gaby Arroyo added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
WAKE172525151
MIAMI252722253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ariana Rodriguez served 5 aces, and Miami (FL) needed every one.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Miami (FL)'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Miami (FL) went in as RallyIQ's 72% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Wake Forest 19–15 Miami (FL)

    Miami (FL) scored 6 straight to turn a 15–19 deficit into a 21–19 lead.

    Miami (FL) 72% → 89%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Wake Forest 25–24 Miami (FL)

    Miami (FL) scored 3 straight to turn a 24–25 deficit into a 27–25 lead.

    Miami (FL) 76% → 94%

Miami (FL) above 50Wake Forest belowMax swing 7.4%

Wake ForestMiami (FL)

Sideout %
Wake Forest 54.1·Miami (FL) 65.1
Break %
Wake Forest 34.9·Miami (FL) 45.9
Hitting
Wake Forest .237·Miami (FL) .301
Longest run
Wake Forest 6·Miami (FL) 8

Ruth Martinez
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 21 K, .342, 23.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Miami (FL) above 50 · Wake Forest below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.4% WAKErally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Wake Forest — set 2, WAKE 24-23 MIAMI. Denitsa Angelova stuffed by Lyla Stewart & Sanaa Williams. MIAMI win probability 83% → 76%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WAKE 18.1%81.9% MIAMI

Wake Forest wins

3-0
2.9%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
9.3%

Miami (FL) wins

3-0
33.5%
3-1
30.7%
3-2
17.7%
WAKE break %
38.0% vs this opp
MIAMI break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Denitsa Angelova stuffed by Lyla Stewart & Sanaa Williams

    Set 2 · WAKE 24-23 MIAMI · WAKE 17% → 24%

  2. 02
    Ruth MartinezKill+6.9%

    Kill by Ruth Martinez (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 2 · WAKE 25-26 MIAMI · MIAMI 81% → 88%

  3. 03
    Miami (FL)Ace+6.2%

    Miami (FL) ace on Lyla Stewart

    Set 2 · WAKE 25-27 MIAMI · MIAMI 88% → 94%

  4. 04

    Kill by Sonja Danilovic (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 2 · WAKE 24-24 MIAMI · MIAMI 76% → 81%

  5. 05
    Lyla StewartKill+5.6%

    Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Becca Bellows)

    Set 2 · WAKE 25-24 MIAMI · WAKE 19% → 24%

  6. 06
    Ruth MartinezKill+5.6%

    Kill by Ruth Martinez (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 2 · WAKE 25-25 MIAMI · MIAMI 76% → 81%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ryleigh Whitekettle (set by Becca Bellows)

    Set 2 · WAKE 23-23 MIAMI · WAKE 12% → 17%

  8. 08
    Asia HarveyAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Asia Harvey

    Set 2 · WAKE 19-20 MIAMI · MIAMI 82% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410419.3160002002111
410330.233102112010.510.5
45113.308021100218
4000–2410400001
4000–001100000
33112.16710010031.54.5
411419.3681014002112
4001.0001111500001
4000–3001510000
33215.067001000003
2316.33300010010.53.5
2013-.33310000010.50.5
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4517118.2374247457012682
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421838.342004100132.523.5
412537.1891028020214
411227.33300351010.511.5
47115.400001001229
4408.50042531000009
2317.28600000010.53.5
4000–6211310002
3000–101200000
21011.00000000010.51.5
2013-.333000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5918136.3015071548448899

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 WAKE · MIAMI 8

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 WAKEMIAMI 6

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 3 WAKEMIAMI 6

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 6 WAKEMIAMI 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 3 WAKEMIAMI 8

Bars above the line = Miami (FL) leads, below = Wake Forest leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%5/5
29%2/7
2
71%5/7
50%5/10
3
100%5/5
29%2/7
4
27%4/15
17%1/6
5
57%4/7
33%2/6
6
27%3/11
33%2/6
All
52%26/50
33%14/42

Miami (FL)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%5/7
73%8/11
2
50%5/10
0%0/5
3
71%5/7
29%2/7
4
83%5/6
0%0/5
5
67%4/6
73%11/15
6
67%4/6
43%3/7
All
67%28/42
48%24/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#WAKE-MIAMISrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MIAMIWAKEAttack errAsia Harvey+1.6
21-1WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.5
32-1MIAMIWAKEAttack errSanaa Williams+1.7
42-2WAKEMIAMIAttack errSanaa Williams+1.6
53-2MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+1.7
63-3WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+1.6
74-3MIAMIWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.7
8–106-4WAKE 2 · MIAMI
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
116-5WAKEMIAMIKillLogan Wileyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
12–137-6WAKE · MIAMI
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
148-6WAKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+2.7
158-7WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.8
168-8MIAMIMIAMIAttack errLogan Wiley+2.5
179-8MIAMIWAKEAttack errRuth Martinez+2.0
189-9WAKEMIAMI×3Attack errLyla Stewart+1.9
199-10MIAMIMIAMI×3Bad setBecca Bellows+2.6
209-11MIAMIMIAMI×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.4
2110-11MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.8
22–2311-12WAKE · MIAMI
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
2411-13WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.9
2511-14MIAMIMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+2.3
2612-14MIAMIWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.6
2712-15WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
2812-16MIAMIMIAMIKillAriana Rodriguez+2.0
2913-16MIAMIWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.2
3014-16WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Sonja Danilovic+2.2
3114-17WAKEMIAMI×6KillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.9
3214-18MIAMIMIAMI×6Bad setEmma Keeping+2.1
3314-19MIAMIMIAMI×6BlockedLaiya Eboblk Sonja Danilovic, Logan Wiley+1.5
3414-20MIAMIMIAMI×6AceMiami (FL)+0.9
3514-21MIAMIMIAMI×6KillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+0.5
3614-22MIAMIMIAMI×6KillLogan Wiley+0.2
3715-22MIAMIWAKEBlockedLogan Wileyblk Laiya Ebo, Kelis Hawkins+0.1
3816-22WAKEWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+0.2
3916-23WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.2
4016-24MIAMIMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+0.1
4117-24MIAMIWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows·
4217-25WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez·
Set 2
10-1WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.2
21-1MIAMIWAKE×3Serve errMiami (FL)+1.3
32-1WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Andrea Roman+1.8
43-1WAKEWAKE×3KillKelis Hawkinsset Becca Bellows+1.9
53-2WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+1.3
64-2MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+1.5
74-3WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+1.3
85-3MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.5
95-4WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.4
105-5MIAMIMIAMIAceMiami (FL)+1.9
116-5MIAMIWAKE×3Serve errMiami (FL)+1.5
127-5WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiaye+2.1
138-5WAKEWAKE×3Attack errRuth Martinez+2.1
148-6WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.4
158-7MIAMIMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+2.0
169-7MIAMIWAKE×3Serve errMiami (FL)+1.7
1710-7WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Kelis Hawkins+2.3
1811-7WAKEWAKE×3BlockedRuth Martinezblk Amina Ndiaye, Kelis Hawkins+2.2
1911-8WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.3
2011-9MIAMIMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+2.1
2112-9MIAMIWAKEAttack errAsia Harvey+1.8
2212-10WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.5
2313-10MIAMIWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Ariana Rodriguez+1.8
2414-10WAKEWAKE×3KillKelis Hawkinsset Andrea Roman+2.3
2515-10WAKEWAKE×3BlockedAsia Harveyblk Kelis Hawkins, Ryleigh Whitekettle+2.1
2615-11WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+1.1
2716-11MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.5
2816-12WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+1.1
2917-12MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.6
3017-13WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+1.1
3117-14MIAMIMIAMIAceMiami (FL)+1.9
3218-14MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+1.9
3318-15WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.4
3419-15MIAMIWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.9
3519-16WAKEMIAMI×6KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.4
3619-17MIAMIMIAMI×6Attack errKelis Hawkins+2.4
3719-18MIAMIMIAMI×6Attack errAmina Ndiaye+3.0
3819-19MIAMIMIAMI×6BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Ruth Martinez, Denitsa Angelova+3.5
3919-20MIAMIMIAMI×6Attack errAsia Harvey+3.6
4019-21MIAMIMIAMI×6KillRuth Martinezset Asia Harvey+3.3
4120-21MIAMIWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Emma Keeping+2.1
4220-22WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+2.7
4321-22MIAMIWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+2.2
4421-23WAKEMIAMIAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+3.0
4522-23MIAMIWAKE×3KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+2.2
4623-23WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+5.2
4724-23WAKEWAKE×3BlockedDenitsa Angelovablk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams+7.4
4824-24WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+5.6
4925-24MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+5.6
5025-25WAKEMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+5.6
5125-26MIAMIMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+6.9
5225-27MIAMIMIAMI×3AceMiami (FL)aced Lyla Stewart+6.2
Set 3
11-0MIAMIWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.7
21-1WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.7
32-1MIAMIWAKE×6KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+0.7
43-1WAKEWAKE×6KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.0
54-1WAKEWAKE×6Attack errRuth Martinez+1.0
65-1WAKEWAKE×6KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.0
76-1WAKEWAKE×6BlockedAsia Harveyblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+1.0
87-1WAKEWAKE×6Attack errRuth Martinez+0.9
97-2WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.5
108-2MIAMIWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.7
119-2WAKEWAKE×3AceWake Forestaced Gaby Arroyo+0.8
1210-2WAKEWAKE×3KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.7
1310-3WAKEMIAMIAttack errRuth Martinez+0.4
1411-3MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.5
1512-3WAKEWAKEKillSadie Poeckset Andrea Roman+0.5
1612-4WAKEMIAMIKillAriana Rodriguezset Sanaa Williams+0.3
1712-5MIAMIMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+0.4
1813-5MIAMIWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Lyla Stewart+0.5
1913-6WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+0.3
2013-7MIAMIMIAMIAttack errKelis Hawkins+0.6
2114-7MIAMIWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.6
2214-8WAKEMIAMI×3KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.4
2314-9MIAMIMIAMI×3AceMiami (FL)aced Lyla Stewart+0.7
2414-10MIAMIMIAMI×3KillAsia Harveyset Amina Ndiaye+0.8
2515-10WAKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
2615-11WAKEMIAMIBad setBecca Bellows+0.6
2716-11MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+0.8
2816-12WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+0.6
2917-12MIAMIWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.8
3017-13WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Andrea Roman+0.6
3117-14MIAMIMIAMIBad setEmma Keeping+1.0
3218-14MIAMIWAKE×3KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.0
3319-14WAKEWAKE×3Attack errAdrianna Bridges+1.1
3420-14WAKEWAKE×3Attack errSonja Danilovic+0.8
3520-15WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest+0.3
3621-15MIAMIWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.5
3721-16WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.3
3822-16MIAMIWAKEBlockedRuth Martinezblk Catherine Burke, Amina Ndiaye+0.5
3923-16WAKEWAKEAceWake Forest+0.3
4023-17WAKEMIAMI×4KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
4123-18MIAMIMIAMI×4KillAsia Harveyset Gaby Arroyo+0.2
4223-19MIAMI
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
4323-20MIAMIMIAMI×4KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.6
4424-20MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+0.9
4524-21WAKEMIAMIAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+0.3
4624-22MIAMIMIAMIKillAriana Rodriguezset Ryleigh Whitekettle+0.8
4725-22MIAMIWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Catherine Burke+1.5
Set 4
10-1WAKEMIAMIAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.8
21-1MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+1.9
31-2WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+1.8
41-3MIAMIMIAMIAttack errLyla Stewart+2.3
52-3MIAMIWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.7
62-4WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
73-4MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+1.8
84-4WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Amina Ndiaye+2.7
94-5WAKEMIAMI×8KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.9
104-6MIAMIMIAMI×8Attack errSanaa Williams+2.5
114-7MIAMIMIAMI×8KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+2.3
124-8MIAMIMIAMI×8KillSonja Danilovicset Stalena Van Deusen+2.0
134-9MIAMIMIAMI×8KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
144-10MIAMIMIAMI×8Attack errSonja Danilovic+1.4
154-11MIAMIMIAMI×8KillLal Akin+1.0
164-12MIAMIMIAMI×8AceMiami (FL)aced Andrea Roman+0.8
175-12MIAMIWAKEAttack errSonja Danilovic+0.4
185-13WAKEMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.5
195-14MIAMIMIAMI×3BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Lal Akin, Ruth Martinez+0.5
205-15MIAMIMIAMI×3BlockedSadie Poeckblk Asia Harvey+0.3
216-15MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)+0.1
226-16WAKEMIAMI×3KillAsia Harveyset Gaby Arroyo+0.2
236-17MIAMIMIAMI×3Attack errCatherine Burke+0.2
246-18MIAMIMIAMI×3AceMiami (FL)+0.1
257-18MIAMIWAKE×3KillSadie Poeckset Emma Keeping·
268-18WAKEWAKE×3KillLaiya Eboset Becca Bellows+0.1
279-18WAKEWAKE×3Attack errRuth Martinez+0.1
289-19WAKEMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
2910-19MIAMIWAKEAttack errAsia Harvey+0.1
3011-19WAKEWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Becca Bellows+0.2
3111-20WAKEMIAMIKillAriana Rodriguez+0.2
3211-21MIAMIMIAMIBlockedLyla Stewartblk Denitsa Angelova+0.1
3312-21MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)·
3412-22WAKEMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
3513-22MIAMIWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Becca Bellows·
3613-23WAKEMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez·
3714-23MIAMIWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman·
3814-24WAKEMIAMIServe errWake Forest·
3915-24MIAMIWAKEServe errMiami (FL)·
4015-25WAKEMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez·

Score shown after each rally, Wake Forest first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).