Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Miami (FL) def. Virginia 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Miami (FL) 87.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Miami (FL) won at Virginia 3-1 (25-14, 25-20, 15-25, 26-24) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Miami (FL)'s Asia Harvey led with 20 kills, and Ariana Rodriguez added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
MIAMI252515263
UVA142025241

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Miami (FL) took it, mostly on runs.

Win probability never moved more than 7.4 points on one rally; Virginia topped out at 19% in Set 4. Miami (FL) went in as RallyIQ's 88% pick.

Miami (FL)Virginia
  • Longest run+2
    64

    Up 8–4 in the second set, Miami (FL) scored 6 straight to make it 14–4. That set ended 25–20.

Virginia above 50Miami (FL) belowMax swing 7.4%

Miami (FL)Virginia

Hitting
Miami (FL) .212·Virginia .215
Aces
Miami (FL) 4·Virginia 8
Serve err
Miami (FL) 7·Virginia 13
Blocks
Miami (FL) 5·Virginia 90 BS · 10 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Miami (FL) 61·Virginia 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Virginia above 50 · Miami (FL) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.4% MIAMIrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Miami (FL) — set 4, MIAMI 24-23 UVA. Kill by Ruth Martinez (set by Denitsa Angelova). UVA win probability 13% → 6%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIAMI 86.0%14.0% UVA

Miami (FL) wins

3-0
38.4%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
16.1%

Virginia wins

3-0
2.0%
3-1
4.4%
3-2
7.5%
MIAMI break %
46.5% vs this opp
UVA break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ruth MartinezKill+7.4%

    Kill by Ruth Martinez (set by Denitsa Angelova)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 24-23 UVA · MIAMI 87% → 94%

  2. 02
    Reese WuebkerKill+6.8%

    Kill by Reese Wuebker (set by Katie Barrier)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 22-23 UVA · UVA 11% → 18%

  3. 03

    Kill by Ariana Rodriguez (set by Olivia Durst)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 26-24 UVA · MIAMI 94% → 100%

  4. 04

    Ruth Martinez stuffed by Caroline Lang & Reese Wuebker

    Set 4 · MIAMI 24-24 UVA · UVA 6% → 11%

  5. 05
    Asia HarveyKill+5.2%

    Kill by Asia Harvey (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 25-24 UVA · MIAMI 89% → 94%

  6. 06
    Asia HarveyKill+4.9%

    Kill by Asia Harvey (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 22-21 UVA · MIAMI 88% → 92%

  7. 07
    Asia HarveyKill+4.6%

    Kill by Asia Harvey (set by Ariana Rodriguez)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 23-23 UVA · MIAMI 82% → 87%

  8. 08
    Reese WuebkerKill+4.5%

    Kill by Reese Wuebker (set by Hannah Scott)

    Set 4 · MIAMI 18-20 UVA · UVA 14% → 19%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420745.2890013002121
415640.22510270010.515.5
410429.20731261010.511.5
44020.20035101900216
44312.083102000426
3224.000000000002
4011-1.0009201200002
3000–1001200000
3000–000210000
1000–000000000
Team totals5523151.2125047618010591
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417245.3330177004220
49012.7500111012212
45215.200000000638
4000–1821800002
2000–021100002
2126-.16700000010.51.5
47426.115000000218
44624-.08300000010.54.5
4000–5111610001
4000–002800000
3207.2861610600003
2000–300000000
Team totals4516135.21542813474116983

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MIAMI · UVA 4

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 4 MIAMIUVA 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 6 MIAMIUVA 3

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 MIAMIUVA 4

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 3 MIAMIUVA 3

Bars above the line = Virginia leads, below = Miami (FL) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Miami (FL)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
14%1/7
2
78%7/9
50%7/14
3
50%7/14
46%6/13
4
55%6/11
50%6/12
5
50%6/12
45%5/11
6
45%5/11
33%3/9
All
55%38/69
42%28/66

Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
88%7/8
40%4/10
2
47%7/15
36%4/11
3
58%7/12
50%7/14
4
46%6/13
36%4/11
5
50%6/12
50%6/12
6
83%5/6
55%6/11
All
58%38/66
45%31/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#MIAMI-UVASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UVAMIAMI×3KillAriana Rodriguezset Sonja Danilovic+0.8
22-0MIAMIMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+1.1
33-0MIAMIMIAMI×3AceMiami (FL)aced Katie Barrier+0.9
43-1MIAMIUVAAttack errRuth Martinez+0.7
54-1UVAMIAMI×3Attack errReese Wuebker+0.7
65-1MIAMIMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+0.8
76-1MIAMIMIAMI×3Attack errBecca Wight+0.6
86-2MIAMIUVAServe errMiami (FL)+0.4
96-3UVAUVAAttack errAsia Harvey+0.8
107-3UVAMIAMI×3KillLogan Wileyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.6
118-3MIAMIMIAMI×3Attack errLauryn Bowie+0.7
129-3MIAMIMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.5
139-4MIAMIUVAKillCaroline Langset Olivia Siskin+0.3
1410-4UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.4
1511-4MIAMIMIAMIBlockedLauryn Bowieblk Asia Harvey, Denitsa Angelova+0.4
1611-5MIAMIUVAServe errMiami (FL)+0.2
1712-5UVAMIAMI×3KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.3
1813-5MIAMIMIAMI×3KillAriana Rodriguezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.2
1914-5MIAMIMIAMI×3BlockedLauryn Bowieblk Denitsa Angelova, Sonja Danilovic+0.2
2014-6MIAMIUVAServe errMiami (FL)+0.1
2114-7UVAUVAAttack errSonja Danilovic+0.2
2215-7MIAMI
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
2316-7MIAMIMIAMIAttack errElla Brodner+0.1
2416-8MIAMIUVAKillBecca Wightset Hannah Scott+0.1
2517-8UVAMIAMIAttack errReese Wuebker+0.1
2618-8MIAMIMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
2718-9MIAMIUVABlockedLogan Wileyblk Emily Fowler, Becca Wight·
2819-9MIAMI
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
2919-10MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Katie Barrier·
3019-11UVAUVABlockedRuth Martinezblk Reese Wuebker, Caroline Lang+0.1
3120-11UVAMIAMI×4KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
3221-11MIAMIMIAMI×4AceMiami (FL)·
3322-11MIAMIMIAMI×4BlockedCaroline Langblk Asia Harvey, Ruth Martinez·
3423-11MIAMIMIAMI×4KillAsia Harveyset Gaby Arroyo·
3523-12MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin·
3624-12UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia·
3724-13MIAMIUVABlockedDenitsa Angelovablk Ella Brodner, Caroline Lang·
3824-14UVAUVAAttack errAsia Harvey·
3925-14UVAMIAMIBlockedElla Brodnerblk Denitsa Angelova, Ariana Rodriguez·
Set 2
10-1MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.7
20-2UVAUVAAttack errLogan Wiley+1.1
31-2UVAMIAMI×4KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.7
42-2MIAMIMIAMI×4Bad setHannah Scott+0.9
53-2MIAMIMIAMI×4KillAsia Harveyset Ruth Martinez+0.9
64-2MIAMIMIAMI×4Attack errBecca Wight+0.8
74-3MIAMIUVAServe errMiami (FL)+0.6
85-3UVAMIAMI×4KillLogan Wileyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.6
96-3MIAMIMIAMI×4KillRuth Martinezset Gaby Arroyo+0.7
107-3MIAMIMIAMI×4KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+0.6
118-3MIAMIMIAMI×4KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.5
128-4MIAMIUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Olivia Siskin+0.3
139-4UVAMIAMI×6Serve errVirginia+0.3
1410-4MIAMIMIAMI×6KillElla Brodnerset Gaby Arroyo+0.4
1511-4MIAMIMIAMI×6Attack errElla Brodner+0.3
1612-4MIAMIMIAMI×6Attack errLauryn Bowie+0.2
1713-4MIAMIMIAMI×6KillAsia Harveyset Gaby Arroyo+0.1
1814-4MIAMIMIAMI×6KillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
1914-5MIAMIUVAAttack errSonja Danilovic·
2014-6UVAUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Zoey Dood+0.1
2115-6UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
2216-6MIAMIMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
2316-7MIAMIUVAKillElla Brodnerset Katie Barrier·
2416-8UVAUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+0.1
2517-8UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.1
2617-9MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott·
2718-9UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.1
2818-10MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott·
2919-10UVAMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez·
3020-10MIAMIMIAMIAceMiami (FL)·
3120-11MIAMIUVAKillZoey Doodset Hannah Scott·
3220-12UVAUVAAceVirginiaaced Sonja Danilovic·
3321-12UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez·
3421-13MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Zoey Dood·
3522-13UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia·
3622-14MIAMIUVA×3KillAsia Harveyset Zoey Dood·
3722-15UVAUVA×3AceVirginia·
3822-16UVAUVA×3KillElla Brodnerset Zoey Dood+0.1
3923-16UVAMIAMIAttack errLauryn Bowie+0.1
4023-17MIAMIUVABlockedAsia Harveyblk Emily Fowler·
4124-17UVAMIAMIBad setElla Brodner·
4224-18MIAMIUVA×3KillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott·
4324-19UVAUVA×3AceVirginia·
4424-20UVAUVA×3AceVirginia+0.1
4525-20UVAMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+0.1
Set 3
11-0UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.3
21-1MIAMIUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+0.3
32-1UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Sonja Danilovic+0.3
43-1MIAMIMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Gaby Arroyo+0.4
53-2MIAMIUVA×3KillZoey Doodset Hannah Scott+0.3
63-3UVAUVA×3KillLauryn Bowieset Zoey Dood+0.4
73-4UVAUVA×3KillCaroline Langset Zoey Dood+0.5
84-4UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+0.3
94-5MIAMIUVA×3KillCaroline Langset Zoey Dood+0.4
104-6UVAUVA×3AceVirginia+0.6
114-7UVAUVA×3KillCaroline Langset Zoey Dood+0.6
125-7UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.4
136-7MIAMIMIAMIAttack errCaroline Lang+0.6
146-8MIAMIUVA×3Attack errSonja Danilovic+0.5
156-9UVAUVA×3Attack errDenitsa Angelova+0.7
166-10UVAUVA×3KillEmily Fowler+0.7
177-10UVAMIAMI×3Serve errVirginia+0.4
188-10MIAMIMIAMI×3KillAriana Rodriguezset Gaby Arroyo+0.6
199-10MIAMIMIAMI×3KillSonja Danilovicset Zoey Dood+0.6
209-11MIAMIUVA×4KillElla Brodnerset Zoey Dood+0.5
219-12UVAUVA×4AceVirginiaaced Stalena Van Deusen+0.8
229-13UVAUVA×4KillEmily Fowler+0.8
239-14UVAUVA×4AceVirginia+0.7
2410-14UVAMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Katie Barrier+0.4
2510-15MIAMIUVAServe errMiami (FL)+0.5
2610-16UVAUVAAttack errSonja Danilovic+0.6
2711-16UVAMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+0.3
2811-17MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.5
2912-17UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+0.3
3012-18MIAMIUVA×4KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.5
3112-19UVAUVA×4KillLauryn Bowieset Zoey Dood+0.5
3212-20UVAUVA×4KillReese Wuebkerset Zoey Dood+0.3
3312-21UVAUVA×4BlockedAsia Harveyblk Caroline Lang, Reese Wuebker+0.2
3413-21UVAMIAMIAttack errLauryn Bowie·
3513-22MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Zoey Dood+0.1
3614-22UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia·
3714-23MIAMIUVAServe errRuth Martinez+0.1
3814-24UVAUVAKillElla Brodnerset Katie Barrier·
3915-24UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez·
4015-25MIAMIUVAKillElla Brodnerset Zoey Dood·
Set 4
10-1MIAMIUVA×3KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+1.3
20-2UVAUVA×3Attack errRuth Martinez+2.0
30-3UVAUVA×3KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.2
41-3UVAMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.4
51-4MIAMIUVAAttack errRuth Martinez+1.7
62-4UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Sonja Danilovic+1.4
73-4MIAMIMIAMIAceGaby Arroyo+2.0
83-5MIAMIUVAKillCaroline Langset Zoey Dood+1.6
93-6UVAUVAKillElla Brodnerset Katie Barrier+2.3
104-6UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+1.5
114-7MIAMIUVAKillElla Brodnerset Zoey Dood+1.8
125-7UVAMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Ariana Rodriguez+1.5
136-7MIAMIMIAMIKillDenitsa Angelovaset Zoey Dood+2.1
146-8MIAMIUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Zoey Dood+1.8
157-8UVAMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.6
168-8MIAMIMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+2.1
178-9MIAMIUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+1.7
189-9UVAMIAMIKillSonja Danilovicset Ariana Rodriguez+1.6
199-10MIAMIUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+1.8
209-11UVAUVAAceEmily Fowler+2.7
2110-11UVAMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
2211-11MIAMIMIAMI×3Bad setHannah Scott+2.4
2312-11MIAMIMIAMI×3KillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+2.3
2412-12MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+1.8
2513-12UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+1.7
2613-13MIAMIUVABlockedRuth Martinezblk Lauryn Bowie+1.8
2713-14UVAUVAAttack errAsia Harvey+2.9
2814-14UVAMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+2.0
2914-15MIAMIUVAAttack errAsia Harvey+2.3
3015-15UVAMIAMI×3KillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+2.1
3116-15MIAMIMIAMI×3BlockedElla Brodnerblk Ariana Rodriguez, Denitsa Angelova+2.8
3217-15MIAMIMIAMI×3KillSonja Danilovicset Gaby Arroyo+2.5
3317-16MIAMIUVA×3KillEmily Fowlerset Zoey Dood+1.8
3417-17UVAUVA×3Attack errDenitsa Angelova+3.1
3517-18UVAUVA×3Attack errGaby Arroyo+3.7
3618-18UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+2.5
3718-19MIAMIUVAServe errDenitsa Angelova+3.0
3818-20UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+4.5
3919-20UVAMIAMIServe errVirginia+2.7
4020-20MIAMIMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Hannah Scott+4.2
4120-21MIAMIUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+3.7
4221-21UVAMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Ariana Rodriguez+3.3
4322-21MIAMIMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+4.9
4422-22MIAMIUVAAttack errAsia Harvey+3.6
4522-23UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Katie Barrier+6.8
4623-23UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+4.6
4724-23MIAMIMIAMIKillRuth Martinezset Denitsa Angelova+7.4
4824-24MIAMIUVABlockedRuth Martinezblk Caroline Lang, Reese Wuebker+5.2
4925-24UVAMIAMIKillAsia Harveyset Ariana Rodriguez+5.2
5026-24MIAMIMIAMIKillAriana Rodriguezset Olivia Durst+6.0

Score shown after each rally, Miami (FL) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).