Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026 · Neutral site

Southeast Mo. St. def. Bradley 3–2

Southeast Mo. St. beat Bradley 3-2 (21-25, 23-25, 29-27, 25-22, 15-13) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026 at a neutral site. Southeast Mo. St.'s Reagan Nelson led with 24 kills, and Holland Guilliams added 16 digs.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set12345Sets
SEMO21232925153
BRAD25252722132

Win probability

Bradley above 50 · Southeast Mo. St. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+20.6% SEMOrally 225 · set 5

Biggest swing: 20.6% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 5, SEMO 13-12 BRAD. Attack error by Chloe Parker. BRAD win probability 47% → 27%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SEMO 74.8%25.2% BRAD

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0
26.9%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
19.3%

Bradley wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.6%
3-2
12.1%
SEMO break %
43.3% vs this opp
BRAD break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Chloe ParkerAttack error+20.6%

    Attack error by Chloe Parker

    Set 5 · SEMO 13-12 BRAD · SEMO 53% → 73%

  2. 02
    Gracie FurlongAttack error+17.8%

    Attack error by Gracie Furlong

    Set 5 · SEMO 14-12 BRAD · SEMO 73% → 91%

  3. 03
    Reagan NelsonKill+16.0%

    Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 5 · SEMO 11-11 BRAD · SEMO 38% → 54%

  4. 04
    Alaina LesterKill+15.4%

    Kill by Alaina Lester (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 5 · SEMO 15-13 BRAD · SEMO 85% → 100%

  5. 05
    Lucy ArndtAttack error+13.4%

    Attack error by Lucy Arndt

    Set 5 · SEMO 7-9 BRAD · BRAD 52% → 66%

  6. 06

    Kill by Adeline Goedheer (set by Maria Drapp)

    Set 5 · SEMO 11-12 BRAD · BRAD 46% → 59%

  7. 07

    Kill by Adeline Goedheer (set by Maria Drapp)

    Set 5 · SEMO 8-11 BRAD · BRAD 68% → 81%

  8. 08
    Gracie FurlongAttack error+12.8%

    Attack error by Gracie Furlong

    Set 5 · SEMO 10-11 BRAD · SEMO 25% → 38%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524660.300203154111.525.5
521662.242110121010.522.5
59118.44410010031.510.5
5000–3500500000
4416.500000000215
1002.000000000000
58325.20000020153.511.5
5116.000421200636
5204.50023311300005
3317.286300300003
3001.000010630001
3000–0001610000
21011.000000000001
2000–000100000
Team totals7319192.2816975761121811113
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5201060.167020184010.522.5
518432.4381003004220
513429.3101101014317
59021.42900010052.511.5
51210-.1006411150031.53.5
51011.000101610001
514741.17110041010.514.5
5000–5511310005
5001.0001101900001
31011.000000100001
3000–010000001
Team totals7727196.2557411381711810112

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 SEMO · BRAD 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 SEMOBRAD 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 SEMOBRAD 3

Set 3

29-27

Longest run 4 SEMOBRAD 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 7 SEMOBRAD 5

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 3 SEMOBRAD 3

Bars above the line = Bradley leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southeast Mo. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
50%9/18
2
56%10/18
33%5/15
3
53%8/15
53%9/17
4
80%8/10
20%2/10
5
53%8/15
56%10/18
6
55%6/11
50%7/14
All
57%50/87
46%42/92

Bradley

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
50%7/14
2
56%10/18
44%8/18
3
57%8/14
41%7/17
4
67%8/12
50%8/16
5
35%7/20
33%4/12
6
64%7/11
30%3/10
All
54%50/92
43%37/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

225 rallies

#SEMO-BRADSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.2
21-1BRADSEMOAttack errAlaina Lester+1.4
32-1SEMO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
42-2SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.5
53-2BRADSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.4
64-2SEMOSEMOAttack errChloe Parker+1.9
74-3BRAD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
84-4BRADBRAD×4AceBradley+2.2
94-5BRADBRAD×4AceBradleyaced Reagan Nelson+2.4
104-6BRAD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
115-6BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.6
126-6SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Gracie Furlong+2.4
136-7SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.8
147-7BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+1.7
157-8SEMOBRAD×3BlockedLucy Arndtblk Mairen Mannon+1.8
167-9BRADBRAD×3KillMaria Drappset Megan DePoorter+2.8
177-10BRADBRAD×3Attack errReagan Nelson+2.8
188-10BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.7
198-11SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.0
209-11BRADSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+1.7
219-12SEMOBRAD×3KillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+2.1
229-13BRADBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.8
239-14BRADBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.5
2410-14BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.3
2511-14SEMOSEMOKillAlaina Lester+2.3
2611-15SEMOBRADServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.1
2712-15BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.6
2812-16SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+2.1
2913-16BRADSEMOKillPaige Smithset Megan Holder+1.6
3014-16SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Gracie Furlong+2.8
3114-17SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.5
3214-18BRADBRADKillMairen Mannonset Lauren Dale+3.2
3315-18BRADSEMOAttack errGracie Furlong+1.6
3416-18SEMOSEMOBlockedLauren Daleblk Katarina Miscevic, Marin Johnson+3.0
3516-19SEMOBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.7
3617-19BRADSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
3717-20SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.9
3818-20BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
3918-21SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.0
4019-21BRADSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.0
4119-22SEMOBRAD×3BlockedPaige Smithblk Adeline Goedheer, Gracie Furlong+3.1
4219-23BRADBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.1
4319-24BRADBRAD×3KillLauren Daleset Ava Patchett+1.5
4420-24BRADSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+0.2
4521-24SEMOSEMOBlockedLauren Daleblk Katarina Miscevic, Paige Smith+0.8
4621-25SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.3
Set 2
11-0SEMOSEMOKillPaige Smithset Megan Holder+2.7
22-0SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Eirini Bitsaktsi+2.5
32-1SEMOBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.8
42-2BRADBRAD×3BlockedKatarina Miscevicblk Adeline Goedheer, Chloe Parker+2.8
52-3BRADBRAD×3AceBradleyaced Reagan Nelson+3.1
63-3BRADSEMOKillSydney Millerset Megan Holder+2.0
73-4SEMOBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+2.2
84-4BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+2.1
94-5SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+2.3
104-6BRADBRADBlockedMarin Johnsonblk Lauren Dale, Mairen Mannon+3.5
115-6BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.2
125-7SEMOBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.5
136-7BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.3
146-8SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.6
156-9BRADBRADAceBradleyaced Nina Schuberth+3.7
167-9BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.3
177-10SEMOBRADKillEirini Bitsaktsiset Paige Smith+2.7
188-10BRADSEMOKillPaige Smithset Katarina Miscevic+2.3
198-11SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.8
208-12BRADBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.8
219-12BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.1
229-13SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+2.7
239-14BRADBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+3.5
2410-14BRADSEMOServe errBradley+1.8
2510-15SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.5
2610-16BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.8
2711-16BRADSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+1.3
2811-17SEMOBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+2.0
2912-17BRADSEMO×3Serve errBradley+1.2
3013-17SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.5
3114-17SEMOSEMO×3BlockedGracie Furlongblk Alaina Lester, Paige Smith+3.2
3214-18SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.0
3315-18BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.1
3415-19SEMOBRADServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+3.1
3516-19BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.1
3616-20SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.1
3717-20BRADSEMO×3KillKatarina Miscevicset Megan Holder+2.0
3818-20SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Lucy Arndt+4.1
3919-20SEMOSEMO×3KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+5.4
4019-21SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+4.9
4120-21BRADSEMOBad setAva Patchett+3.8
4220-22SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+5.4
4321-22BRADSEMOKillEllie Burnsset Katarina Miscevic+4.0
4421-23SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+6.1
4522-23BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+4.1
4622-24SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+7.2
4723-24BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+3.8
4823-25SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+9.9
Set 3
11-0BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Alaina Lester+1.6
21-1SEMOBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.7
31-2BRADBRAD×3KillAdeline Goedheer+2.7
41-3BRADBRAD×3KillMaren Ouelletteset Mairen Mannon+2.9
52-3BRADSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+1.8
63-3SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.7
74-3SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Reagan Nelson+2.6
84-4SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.9
94-5BRADBRADBlockedAlaina Lesterblk Adeline Goedheer, Chloe Parker+2.9
105-5BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Alayna Christner+1.9
115-6SEMOBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.1
125-7BRADBRAD×3AceBradleyaced Nina Schuberth+3.2
135-8BRADBRAD×3AceBradley+3.2
146-8BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Alayna Christner+2.0
157-8SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+3.0
167-9SEMOBRAD×3KillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+2.4
177-10BRADBRAD×3KillLauren Daleset Ava Patchett+3.4
187-11BRADBRAD×3AceBradleyaced Nina Schuberth+3.3
198-11BRADSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+1.9
209-11SEMOSEMO×4BlockedLauren Daleblk Katarina Miscevic, Reagan Nelson+3.1
2110-11SEMOSEMO×4Attack errMairen Mannon+3.3
2211-11SEMOSEMO×4BlockedLauren Daleblk Katarina Miscevic, Marin Johnson+3.4
2311-12SEMOBRADAttack errLucy Arndt+2.6
2412-12BRADSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.4
2513-12SEMOSEMO×3BlockedGracie Furlongblk Alaina Lester, Marin Johnson+3.5
2614-12SEMOSEMO×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+3.2
2714-13SEMOBRADServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.2
2814-14BRADBRADBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Maria Drapp, Adeline Goedheer+3.7
2915-14BRADSEMOAttack errGracie Furlong+2.6
3015-15SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.7
3116-15BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.7
3216-16SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.9
3317-16BRADSEMOKillAlayna Christnerset Megan Holder+2.9
3417-17SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.0
3518-17BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Alayna Christner+3.1
3619-17SEMOSEMOAttack errLucy Arndt+4.2
3719-18SEMOBRAD×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.6
3819-19BRADBRAD×3KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+4.9
3919-20BRADBRAD×3KillMairen Mannon+5.9
4020-20BRADSEMOAttack errLauren Dale+3.8
4121-20SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Gracie Furlong+6.0
4221-21SEMOBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+4.1
4322-21BRADSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+4.6
4422-22SEMOBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+4.6
4522-23BRADBRADAceBradleyaced Lucy Arndt+8.8
4623-23BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+5.6
4723-24SEMOBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Chloe Parker+7.7
4824-24BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+7.7
4925-24SEMOSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+10.1
5025-25SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+6.8
5126-25BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+6.8
5226-26SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Ava Patchett+6.8
5327-26BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+6.8
5427-27SEMOBRADAttack errReagan Nelson+6.8
5528-27BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Katarina Miscevic+6.8
5629-27SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+8.9
Set 4
11-0SEMOSEMOKillAlayna Christnerset Megan Holder+3.8
21-1SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.7
31-2BRADBRADAceBradleyaced Holland Guilliams+4.2
42-2BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.8
53-2SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+4.0
63-3SEMOBRAD×3KillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+2.8
73-4BRADBRAD×3KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+4.4
83-5BRADBRAD×3Attack errLucy Arndt+4.7
94-5BRADSEMO×3Attack errChloe Parker+3.0
105-5SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+4.4
116-5SEMOSEMO×3AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Lauren Dale+4.3
126-6SEMOBRAD×4Bad setLucy Arndt+3.1
136-7BRADBRAD×4KillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+4.8
146-8BRADBRAD×4BlockedMarin Johnsonblk Mairen Mannon, Maria Drapp+5.1
156-9BRADBRAD×4KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+5.2
167-9BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+3.1
178-9SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+4.9
188-10SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+3.8
199-10BRADSEMO×7KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+3.4
2010-10SEMOSEMO×7AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Ava Patchett+5.2
2111-10SEMOSEMO×7KillEllie Burnsset Maria Drapp+5.1
2212-10SEMOSEMO×7BlockedGracie Furlongblk Marin Johnson, Alaina Lester+4.7
2313-10SEMOSEMO×7KillReagan Nelsonset Katarina Miscevic+4.2
2414-10SEMOSEMO×7AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Gracie Furlong+3.4
2515-10SEMOSEMO×7Attack errMairen Mannon+2.6
2615-11SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Ava Patchett+1.4
2716-11BRADSEMO×3KillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+1.8
2817-11SEMOSEMO×3Attack errGracie Furlong+1.8
2918-11SEMOSEMO×3KillAlaina Lester+1.2
3018-12SEMOBRAD×5KillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+0.5
3118-13BRADBRAD×5AceBradleyaced Reagan Nelson+1.2
3218-14BRADBRAD×5Attack errReagan Nelson+1.8
3318-15BRADBRAD×5KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.8
3418-16BRADBRAD×5Attack errReagan Nelson+4.1
3519-16BRADSEMOServe errBradley+3.5
3619-17SEMOBRADServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.9
3719-18BRADBRADKillLauren Daleset Ava Patchett+5.9
3820-18BRADSEMOAttack errMaria Drapp+4.8
3920-19SEMOBRAD×4KillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+4.3
4020-20BRADBRAD×4KillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+8.4
4120-21BRADBRAD×4KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+10.3
4220-22BRADBRAD×4BlockedLucy Arndtblk Chloe Parker, Mairen Mannon+10.7
4321-22BRADSEMO×5KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+5.6
4422-22SEMOSEMO×5Attack errChloe Parker+11.1
4523-22SEMOSEMO×5BlockedLauren Daleblk Marin Johnson+12.7
4624-22SEMOSEMO×5KillLucy Arndt+11.0
4725-22SEMOSEMO×5BlockedMairen Mannonblk Katarina Miscevic, Marin Johnson+4.0
Set 5
11-0SEMOSEMOKillAlayna Christnerset Megan Holder+8.2
22-0SEMOSEMOAttack errGracie Furlong+7.7
32-1SEMOBRADBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Adeline Goedheer, Maria Drapp+5.2
42-2BRADBRADAttack errAlayna Christner+8.7
53-2BRADSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+6.0
63-3SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Eirini Bitsaktsi+6.3
74-3BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+6.3
84-4SEMOBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+6.6
94-5BRADBRADKillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+10.7
105-5BRADSEMOAttack errLauren Dale+7.0
116-5SEMOSEMOBlockedMaria Drappblk Katarina Miscevic, Lucy Arndt+10.3
126-6SEMOBRADKillLauren Daleset Maria Drapp+7.3
137-6BRADSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+7.4
147-7SEMOBRAD×3KillMairen Mannonset Maria Drapp+7.7
157-8BRADBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+12.8
167-9BRADBRAD×3Attack errLucy Arndt+13.4
178-9BRADSEMOBlockedMairen Mannonblk Reagan Nelson+7.8
188-10SEMOBRADAttack errMarin Johnson+10.2
198-11BRADBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+13.2
209-11BRADSEMO×3KillAlaina Lesterset Reagan Nelson+6.2
2110-11SEMOSEMO×3Attack errGracie Furlong+12.8
2211-11SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+16.0
2311-12SEMOBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+13.3
2412-12BRADSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+12.2
2513-12SEMOSEMO×3Attack errChloe Parker+20.6
2614-12SEMOSEMO×3Attack errGracie Furlong+17.8
2714-13SEMOBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+6.7
2815-13BRADSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+15.4

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).