Southeast Mo. State def. Little Rock 3-0 Volleyball (Sep 16)

FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

0:3

Southeast Mo. St. beat visiting Little Rock 3-0 (25-18, 25-20, 26-24) on Wed, Sep 16, 2026. Southeast Mo. St.'s Reagan Nelson led with 15 kills, and Lucy Arndt added 8 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Sep 16

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UALR	18	20	24	0
SEMO	25	25	26	3

Win probability

Southeast Mo. St. above 50 · Little Rock below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to Little Rock — set 1, UALR 15-13 SEMO. Marin Johnson stuffed by Alyssa Boyte & Bella Cherry. SEMO win probability 87% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UALR 9.8%90.2% SEMO

Little Rock wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.5%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

44.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.9%

UALR break %: 37.4% vs this opp
SEMO break %: 47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Alyssa Boyte&Bella CherryBlock+2.2%
Marin Johnson stuffed by Alyssa Boyte & Bella Cherry
Set 1 · UALR 15-13 SEMO · UALR 13% → 15%
02
Southeast Mo. St.Ace+2.0%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Lovina Teel
Set 1 · UALR 15-15 SEMO · SEMO 86% → 88%
03
Lovina TeelKill+2.0%
Kill by Lovina Teel (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · UALR 12-9 SEMO · UALR 14% → 16%
04
Sydney MillerKill+1.9%
Kill by Sydney Miller (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · UALR 15-16 SEMO · SEMO 88% → 90%
05
Southeast Mo. St.Ace+1.7%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Lovina Teel
Set 1 · UALR 12-11 SEMO · SEMO 85% → 87%
06
Southeast Mo. St.Ace+1.7%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Lovina Teel
Set 1 · UALR 12-12 SEMO · SEMO 87% → 89%
07
Reagan NelsonKill+1.6%
Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Lucy Arndt)
Set 3 · UALR 24-25 SEMO · SEMO 97% → 99%
08
Ellie BurnsKill+1.6%
Kill by Ellie Burns (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · UALR 15-17 SEMO · SEMO 90% → 92%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Little Rockaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Avery FearnleyOH	3	13	4	28	.321	1	2	2	10	2	1	0	1	16
13Morgan CreerOH	3	13	5	27	.296	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	14
7Lovina TeelOH	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	5
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	2	0	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	2	0	5	.400	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	1	3
5Lily KingS	3	0	0	2	.000	21	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
8Bella CherryOH	3	3	2	15	.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Alayna VaethS	3	0	1	3	-.333	11	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
2Skyler PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
1Miranda BledsoeL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	13	104	.240	36	4	11	40	7	4	2	5	62

Southeast Mo. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	15	7	35	.229	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	15
7Sydney MillerMB	3	5	1	10	.400	0	1	2	1	0	1	4	3	9
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	4	3	20	.050	1	1	0	8	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
24Alaina LesterMB	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Megan HolderS	3	0	0	2	.000	13	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
5Alayna ChristnerOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Ellie BurnsS	3	3	1	6	.333	15	2	2	6	0	0	0	0	5
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
22Katherine St. JohnOH	2	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
14Harper HighfillL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		41	14	108	.250	33	7	5	38	4	1	10	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 UALR · SEMO 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 8

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 3

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Little Rock leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	44%4/9
2	100%6/6	33%3/9
3	55%6/11	14%1/7
4	50%5/10	25%2/8
5	50%4/8	29%2/7
6	67%4/6	20%1/5
All	62%31/50	29%13/45

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	44%4/9
2	86%6/7	0%0/6
3	86%6/7	33%3/9
4	63%5/8	50%5/10
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	57%4/7	56%5/9
All	71%32/45	38%19/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

138 rallies

#	UALR-SEMO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.2
2	2-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.3
3	2-1	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.9
4	3-1	SEMO	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.0
5	4-1	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Lily King	+1.5
6	5-1		UALR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.6
7	5-2	UALR	SEMO	Bad set	Lily King		+1.0
8	6-2	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.2
9	6-3	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Megan Holder	+1.0
10	7-3	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Morgan Creer	+1.3
11	7-4	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+1.0
12	8-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.3
13	8-5	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.0
14	9-5	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.3
15	9-6	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+1.1
16	10-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.4
17	10-7	UALR	SEMO×3	Serve err	Little Rock		+1.1
18	10-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+1.6
19	10-9	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Holland Guilliams	+1.6
20	11-9	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.4
21	12-9	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.0
22	12-10	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+1.2
23	12-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.	aced Lovina Teel	+1.7
24	12-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.	aced Lovina Teel	+1.7
25	13-12	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.4
26	13-13	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+1.3
27	14-13	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	Southeast Mo. St.		+1.5
28	15-13	UALR	UALR	Blocked	Marin Johnson	blk Alyssa Boyte, Bella Cherry	+2.2
29	15-14	UALR	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
30	15-15	SEMO	SEMO×8	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.	aced Lovina Teel	+2.0
31	15-16	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Ellie Burns	+1.9
32	15-17	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Ellie Burns	+1.6
33	15-18	SEMO	SEMO×8	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.3
34	15-19	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Holland Guilliams	+1.0
35	15-20	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.6
36	15-21	SEMO	SEMO×8	Attack err	Alayna Vaeth		+0.3
37	16-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Avery Fearnley	+0.1
38	16-22	UALR	SEMO	Blocked	Bella Cherry	blk Marin Johnson, Sydney Miller	+0.2
39	16-23	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
40	17-23	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	Southeast Mo. St.		·
41	17-24	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
42	18-24	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	·
43	18-25	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Morgan Creer		·
Set 2
1	0-1	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester		+0.7
2	0-2	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+0.6
3	0-3	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.5
4	1-3	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.4
5	1-4	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.4
6	2-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Victoria Fontenot	+0.4
7	2-5	UALR	SEMO	Blocked	Morgan Creer	blk Alaina Lester, Lucy Arndt	+0.4
8	3-5	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	Southeast Mo. St.		+0.4
9	3-6	UALR	SEMO	Blocked	Bella Cherry	blk Lucy Arndt, Sydney Miller	+0.4
10	4-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.4
11	5-6	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.7
12	5-7	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns		+0.5
13	6-7	SEMO	UALR	Blocked	Lucy Arndt	blk Alyssa Boyte	+0.5
14	6-8	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.5
15	6-9	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.		+0.6
16	7-9	SEMO	UALR×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.5
17	8-9	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.8
18	9-9	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	Little Rock	aced Lucy Arndt	+0.9
19	9-10	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.7
20	10-10	SEMO	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.7
21	11-10	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	Little Rock	aced Lucy Arndt	+1.1
22	12-10	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.3
23	12-11	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.8
24	13-11	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.0
25	13-12	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.9
26	13-13	SEMO	SEMO×3	Blocked	Lovina Teel	blk Katherine St. John, Sydney Miller	+1.2
27	13-14	SEMO	SEMO×3	Blocked	Morgan Creer	blk Lucy Arndt, Sydney Miller	+1.1
28	14-14	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.9
29	14-15	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.8
30	14-16	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.	aced Avery Fearnley	+1.0
31	14-17	SEMO	SEMO×3	Bad set	Alayna Vaeth		+0.8
32	15-17	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
33	15-18	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
34	16-18	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
35	16-19	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+0.7
36	17-19	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.6
37	17-20	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Ellie Burns	+0.7
38	18-20	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+0.6
39	18-21	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.7
40	19-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.6
41	19-22	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.8
42	19-23	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller		+0.6
43	20-23	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Victoria Fontenot	+0.2
44	20-24	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.4
45	20-25	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Avery Fearnley	+0.4
2	2-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.4
3	2-1	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
4	3-1	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.3
5	3-2	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Reagan Nelson	+0.3
6	4-2	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Katherine St. John		+0.4
7	5-2	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Sydney Miller		+0.5
8	5-3	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.3
9	5-4	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller		+0.4
10	6-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.4
11	6-5	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
12	6-6	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
13	7-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.4
14	7-7	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
15	7-8	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
16	8-8	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
17	8-9	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
18	8-10	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+0.4
19	9-10	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
20	9-11	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
21	10-11	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.3
22	11-11	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+0.5
23	11-12	UALR	SEMO	Bad set	Lily King		+0.3
24	12-12	SEMO	UALR	Blocked	Reagan Nelson	blk Lorena Keselj	+0.4
25	12-13	UALR	SEMO	Blocked	Morgan Creer	blk Sydney Miller	+0.4
26	12-14	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+0.5
27	13-14	SEMO	UALR×3	Serve err	Southeast Mo. St.		+0.3
28	14-14	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	Little Rock		+0.6
29	15-14	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Ellie Burns		+0.7
30	15-15	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.5
31	15-16	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+0.6
32	16-16	SEMO	UALR	Bad set	Nina Schuberth		+0.5
33	17-16	UALR	UALR	Blocked	Reagan Nelson	blk Avery Fearnley	+0.8
34	17-17	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.5
35	17-18	SEMO	SEMO	Bad set	Avery Fearnley		+0.7
36	18-18	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	Southeast Mo. St.		+0.5
37	19-18	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.9
38	19-19	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.6
39	20-19	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.8
40	20-20	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.7
41	21-20	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.8
42	21-21	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.8
43	22-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.0
44	22-22	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	Little Rock		+0.9
45	23-22	SEMO	UALR	Blocked	Lucy Arndt	blk Morgan Creer	+1.2
46	23-23	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.0
47	24-23	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.5
48	24-24	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.5
49	24-25	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+1.6
50	24-26	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Southeast Mo. St.		+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Little Rock first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Southeast Mo. St. def. Little Rock 3–0