FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeOVC

Southeast Mo. St. def. Little Rock 3–0

(25-18, 25-20, 26-24)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
UALR	18	20	24	0
SEMO	25	25	26	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SEMO above 50 · UALR below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 3, UALR 24-25 SEMO. Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Lucy Arndt). SEMO win probability 92% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UALR 31.7%68.3% SEMO

Little Rock wins

3-0

6.2%

3-1

11.2%

3-2

14.3%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

22.1%

3-1

26.2%

3-2

20.0%

UALR break %: 41.9% vs this opp
SEMO break %: 45.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Reagan NelsonKill+4.3%
Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Lucy Arndt)
Set 3 · UALR 24-25 SEMO · SEMO 92% → 96%
02
SEMO serverAce+3.9%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Team
Set 3 · UALR 24-26 SEMO · SEMO 96% → 100%
03
Reagan NelsonAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Reagan Nelson
Set 3 · UALR 24-23 SEMO · UALR 8% → 12%
04
Reagan NelsonKill+3.6%
Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 3 · UALR 24-24 SEMO · SEMO 88% → 92%
05
Marin JohnsonAttack error+3.5%
Marin Johnson stuffed by Alyssa Boyte & Bella Cherry
Set 1 · UALR 15-13 SEMO · UALR 36% → 39%
06
Sydney MillerKill+3.5%
Kill by Sydney Miller (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · UALR 15-16 SEMO · SEMO 66% → 70%
07
SEMO serverAce+3.4%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Lovina Teel
Set 1 · UALR 15-15 SEMO · SEMO 63% → 66%
08
Ellie BurnsKill+3.3%
Kill by Ellie Burns (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · UALR 15-17 SEMO · SEMO 70% → 73%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Little Rockaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Avery FearnleyOH	3	13	4	28	.321	1	2	2	10	2	1	0	1	16
13Morgan CreerOH	3	13	5	27	.296	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	14
7Lovina TeelOH	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	5
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	2	0	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	2	0	5	.400	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	1	3
5Lily KingS	3	0	0	2	.000	21	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
8Bella CherryOH	3	3	2	15	.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Alayna VaethS	3	0	1	3	-.333	11	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
2Skyler PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
1Miranda BledsoeL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	13	104	.240	36	4	11	40	7	4	2	5	62

Southeast Mo. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	15	7	35	.229	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	15
7Sydney MillerMB	3	5	1	10	.400	0	1	2	1	0	1	4	3	9
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	4	3	20	.050	1	1	0	8	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
24Alaina LesterMB	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Megan HolderS	3	0	0	2	.000	13	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
5Alayna ChristnerOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Ellie BurnsS	3	3	1	6	.333	15	2	2	6	0	0	0	0	5
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
22Katherine St. JohnOH	2	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
14Harper HighfillL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		41	14	108	.250	33	7	5	38	4	1	10	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UALR · SEMO 8

Set 1*

18-25

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 8

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 UALRSEMO 3

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Little Rock leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	44%4/9
2	100%6/6	33%3/9
3	55%6/11	14%1/7
4	50%5/10	25%2/8
5	50%4/8	29%2/7
6	67%4/6	20%1/5
All	62%31/50	29%13/45

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	44%4/9
2	86%6/7	0%0/6
3	86%6/7	33%3/9
4	63%5/8	50%5/10
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	57%4/7	56%5/9
All	71%32/45	38%19/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	UALR-SEMO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+2.2
2	2-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.3
3	2-1	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.7
4	3-1	SEMO	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.9
5	4-1	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Lily King	+2.4
6	5-1	UALR	UALR×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.4
7	5-2	UALR	SEMO	Bad set	Lily King		+1.6
8	6-2	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.9
9	6-3	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Megan Holder	+1.6
10	7-3	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Morgan Creer	+1.9
11	7-4	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.7
12	8-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.0
13	8-5	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.7
14	9-5	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.0
15	9-6	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.7
16	10-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.1
17	10-7	UALR	SEMO×3	Serve err	UALR server		+1.7
18	10-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+2.5
19	10-9	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Holland Guilliams	+2.7
20	11-9	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.3
21	12-9	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+3.0
22	12-10	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+2.0
23	12-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Lovina Teel	+2.9
24	12-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Lovina Teel	+3.0
25	13-12	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.5
26	13-13	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+2.4
27	14-13	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	SEMO server		+2.6
28	15-13	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Marin Johnson	blk Alyssa Boyte, Bella Cherry	+3.5
29	15-14	UALR	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+2.5
30	15-15	SEMO	SEMO×8	Ace	SEMO server	aced Lovina Teel	+3.4
31	15-16	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Ellie Burns	+3.5
32	15-17	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Ellie Burns	+3.3
33	15-18	SEMO	SEMO×8	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.9
34	15-19	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Holland Guilliams	+2.3
35	15-20	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.6
36	15-21	SEMO	SEMO×8	Attack err	Alayna Vaeth		+1.0
37	16-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Avery Fearnley	+0.4
38	16-22	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Marin Johnson, Sydney Miller	+0.7
39	16-23	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
40	17-23	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.1
41	17-24	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.2
42	18-24	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.0
43	18-25	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester		+1.8
2	0-2	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.7
3	0-3	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.6
4	1-3	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.2
5	1-4	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.2
6	2-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Victoria Fontenot	+1.2
7	2-5	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Alaina Lester, Lucy Arndt	+1.3
8	3-5	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.2
9	3-6	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Lucy Arndt, Sydney Miller	+1.3
10	4-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.3
11	5-6	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+1.8
12	5-7	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns		+1.5
13	6-7	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Alyssa Boyte	+1.5
14	6-8	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.5
15	6-9	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+1.8
16	7-9	SEMO	UALR×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.3
17	8-9	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.0
18	9-9	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Lucy Arndt	+2.2
19	9-10	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.7
20	10-10	SEMO	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.8
21	11-10	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Lucy Arndt	+2.5
22	12-10	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.6
23	12-11	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.8
24	13-11	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.1
25	13-12	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.9
26	13-13	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Lovina Teel	blk Katherine St. John, Sydney Miller	+2.6
27	13-14	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Lucy Arndt, Sydney Miller	+2.6
28	14-14	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.1
29	14-15	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+2.1
30	14-16	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Avery Fearnley	+2.6
31	14-17	SEMO	SEMO×3	Bad set	Alayna Vaeth		+2.3
32	15-17	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.6
33	15-18	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.9
34	16-18	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.6
35	16-19	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+1.9
36	17-19	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.6
37	17-20	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Ellie Burns	+2.0
38	18-20	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.7
39	18-21	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+2.1
40	19-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.6
41	19-22	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+2.3
42	19-23	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller		+1.9
43	20-23	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Victoria Fontenot	+0.7
44	20-24	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.3
45	20-25	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Avery Fearnley	+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Avery Fearnley	+1.1
2	2-0	UALR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.1
3	2-1	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.8
4	3-1	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.9
5	3-2	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Reagan Nelson	+0.8
6	4-2	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Katherine St. John		+0.9
7	5-2	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Sydney Miller		+1.2
8	5-3	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.8
9	5-4	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller		+1.1
10	6-4	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.0
11	6-5	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.9
12	6-6	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Ellie Burns	+1.2
13	7-6	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.0
14	7-7	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.9
15	7-8	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.2
16	8-8	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.0
17	8-9	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.0
18	8-10	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.2
19	9-10	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.9
20	9-11	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.0
21	10-11	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+0.9
22	11-11	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.4
23	11-12	UALR	SEMO	Bad set	Lily King		+1.1
24	12-12	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson	blk Lorena Keselj	+1.1
25	12-13	UALR	SEMO	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Sydney Miller	+1.1
26	12-14	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.4
27	13-14	SEMO	UALR×3	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.0
28	14-14	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Team	+1.5
29	15-14	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Ellie Burns		+1.7
30	15-15	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.3
31	15-16	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+1.7
32	16-16	SEMO	UALR	Bad set	Nina Schuberth		+1.3
33	17-16	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson	blk Avery Fearnley	+1.9
34	17-17	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
35	17-18	SEMO	SEMO	Bad set	Avery Fearnley		+1.9
36	18-18	SEMO	UALR	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.5
37	19-18	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+2.2
38	19-19	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+1.6
39	20-19	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.9
40	20-20	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.8
41	21-20	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.1
42	21-21	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+2.0
43	22-21	SEMO	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.4
44	22-22	UALR	SEMO	Serve err	UALR server		+2.2
45	23-22	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Morgan Creer	+2.8
46	23-23	UALR	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+2.6
47	24-23	SEMO	UALR	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+3.6
48	24-24	UALR	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+3.6
49	24-25	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+4.3
50	24-26	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+3.9

Score shown after each rally, Little Rock first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.