Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026 · Neutral site

Missouri St. def. Southeast Mo. St. 3–1

Missouri St. beat Southeast Mo. St. 3-1 (19-25, 25-20, 25-23, 25-20) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026 at a neutral site.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set1234Sets
SEMO252023201
MO ST192525253

Win probability

Missouri St. above 50 · Southeast Mo. St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+13.9% MO STrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.9% to Missouri St. — set 3, SEMO 23-25 MO ST. Reagan Nelson stuffed by Lexi Weinberg. MO ST win probability 61% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SEMO 52.0%48.0% MO ST

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0
13.4%
3-1
19.6%
3-2
19.1%

Missouri St. wins

3-0
11.7%
3-1
17.9%
3-2
18.4%
SEMO break %
39.8% vs this opp
MO ST break %
39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lexi WeinbergBlock+13.9%

    Reagan Nelson stuffed by Lexi Weinberg

    Set 3 · SEMO 23-25 MO ST · MO ST 61% → 75%

  2. 02

    Reagan Nelson stuffed by Lexi Weinberg & Chloe Judd

    Set 3 · SEMO 23-24 MO ST · MO ST 47% → 61%

  3. 03
    Chloe JuddKill+10.4%

    Kill by Chloe Judd (set by Hannah Gardner)

    Set 3 · SEMO 23-23 MO ST · MO ST 37% → 47%

  4. 04
    Rilynn FinleyKill+8.5%

    Kill by Rilynn Finley (set by Hannah Gardner)

    Set 4 · SEMO 20-21 MO ST · MO ST 73% → 81%

  5. 05
    Lexi WeinbergKill+8.2%

    Kill by Lexi Weinberg (set by Hannah Gardner)

    Set 4 · SEMO 20-22 MO ST · MO ST 81% → 89%

  6. 06
    Marin JohnsonKill+7.6%

    Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Nina Schuberth)

    Set 4 · SEMO 20-19 MO ST · SEMO 24% → 32%

  7. 07
    Reagan NelsonAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Reagan Nelson

    Set 4 · SEMO 18-19 MO ST · MO ST 73% → 80%

  8. 08
    Katherine St. JohnAttack error+6.4%

    Attack error by Katherine St. John

    Set 4 · SEMO 18-18 MO ST · MO ST 67% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141043.093252150111.520.5
414336.30600043010.514.5
414936.13900050010.514.5
48115.467000200219
42021.00028001300002
3216.16701200010.53.5
44415.00000010010.54.5
4001.0001701900000
4001.0007011510000
2000–211200001
1000–00000010.50.5
Team totals5828155.194567766418588
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48021.38111240254.513.5
410327.25900010132.512.5
410017.5880001002111
410333.21200062010.510.5
48220.30024021100219
4000–2111140001
4103.3331911900002
4000–112900001
4001.000401700000
3238-.12500000111.53.5
2317.286000200003
Team totals5212137.29251496174141194

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 SEMO · MO ST 6

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 3 SEMOMO ST 2

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 SEMOMO ST 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 7 SEMOMO ST 5

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 4 SEMOMO ST 6

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southeast Mo. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%10/25
41%7/17
2
45%9/20
60%15/25
3
75%9/12
36%5/14
4
69%9/13
10%1/10
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
73%8/11
20%2/10
All
57%53/93
39%35/89

Missouri St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%11/26
57%12/21
2
53%10/19
47%9/19
3
90%9/10
55%11/20
4
73%8/11
0%0/9
5
62%8/13
43%6/14
6
80%8/10
20%2/10
All
61%54/89
43%40/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#SEMO-MO STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MO STMO STAttack errReagan Nelson+2.7
20-2MO STMO STBlockedSydney Millerblk Chloe Judd+2.7
31-2MO STSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+1.7
42-2SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Riley Ourth+2.7
52-3SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.8
63-3MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.8
74-3SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Riley Ourth+2.8
84-4SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+1.8
94-5MO STMO STBlockedMarin Johnsonblk Jenna Walters, Chloe Judd+2.9
105-5MO STSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.9
115-6SEMOMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+2.0
126-6MO STSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+1.9
136-7SEMOMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.0
147-7MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
157-8SEMOMO STAttack errKatherine St. John+2.1
168-8MO STSEMOAttack errRilynn Finley+2.0
179-8SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+3.2
189-9SEMOMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+2.1
1910-9MO STSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.2
2010-10SEMOMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+2.2
2110-11MO STMO STAttack errMarin Johnson+3.5
2211-11MO STSEMOKillSydney Millerset Megan Holder+2.2
2312-11SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Hannah Gardner+3.6
2412-12SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+2.3
2513-12MO STSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.4
2613-13SEMOMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.4
2714-13MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+2.5
2814-14SEMOMO STAttack errLucy Arndt+2.5
2915-14MO STSEMO×3Serve errMissouri St.+2.6
3016-14SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+4.0
3117-14SEMOSEMO×3KillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+3.6
3217-15SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.9
3318-15MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Holland Guilliams+2.4
3419-15SEMOSEMOBad setRilynn Finley+3.0
3519-16SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Riley Ourth+1.4
3620-16MO STSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+1.9
3720-17SEMOMO STServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.3
3821-17MO STSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Holland Guilliams+1.9
3922-17SEMOSEMO×3Attack errHannah Gardner+1.8
4023-17SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Reagan Nelson+0.8
4123-18SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Sydney Miller+0.2
4224-18MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Holland Guilliams+0.4
4324-19SEMOMO STServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+0.1
4425-19MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.2
Set 2
11-0SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.6
22-0SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.6
32-1SEMOMO STServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.6
43-1MO STSEMO×3KillMegan Holderset Holland Guilliams+1.7
54-1SEMOSEMO×3KillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.5
65-1SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.3
75-2SEMOMO ST×4Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.3
85-3MO STMO ST×4Attack errMarin Johnson+2.3
95-4MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.6
105-5MO STMO ST×4Attack errLucy Arndt+2.8
116-5MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+1.9
126-6SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+1.9
137-6MO STSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+1.9
147-7SEMOMO ST×4KillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.9
157-8MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+3.1
167-9MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+3.1
177-10MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.9
188-10MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.7
198-11SEMOMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+2.0
208-12MO STMO STAttack errReagan Nelson+2.7
219-12MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+1.5
229-13SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.8
2310-13MO STSEMO×3KillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+1.5
2411-13SEMOSEMO×3AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Riley Ourth+2.8
2512-13SEMOSEMO×3KillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+3.2
2612-14SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.4
2713-14MO STSEMOKillSydney Millerset Megan Holder+2.2
2813-15SEMOMO STBlockedMarin Johnsonblk Chloe Judd+2.5
2914-15MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Reagan Nelson+2.3
3014-16SEMOMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.6
3115-16MO STSEMOAttack errJenna Walters+2.3
3216-16SEMOSEMOAttack errJenna Walters+4.1
3316-17SEMOMO STBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner+2.9
3416-18MO STMO STAceMissouri St.aced Lucy Arndt+4.4
3517-18MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.5
3617-19SEMOMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+3.1
3717-20MO STMO STAttack errKatherine St. John+4.0
3818-20MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
3918-21SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.8
4019-21MO STSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+1.9
4119-22SEMOMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.9
4220-22MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.8
4320-23SEMOMO ST×3Bad setReagan Nelson+3.0
4420-24MO STMO ST×3Attack errMarin Johnson+2.4
4520-25MO STMO ST×3BlockedAlaina Lesterblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner+0.6
Set 3
10-1MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+3.5
20-2MO STMO ST×3AceMissouri St.aced Lucy Arndt+3.5
30-3MO STMO ST×3Attack errMarin Johnson+3.4
41-3MO STSEMO×7Serve errMissouri St.+2.1
52-3SEMOSEMO×7KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+3.5
63-3SEMOSEMO×7KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+3.7
74-3SEMOSEMO×7AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Rilynn Finley+3.8
85-3SEMOSEMO×7Attack errLexi Weinberg+3.7
96-3SEMOSEMO×7AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Riley Ourth+3.5
107-3SEMOSEMO×7KillMegan Holderset Holland Guilliams+3.2
117-4SEMOMO STBlockedMarin Johnsonblk Chloe Judd, Rilynn Finley+1.9
128-4MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Holland Guilliams+2.1
138-5SEMOMO STKillHalle Rillieset Chloe Judd+1.9
149-5MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+2.2
159-6SEMOMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+1.9
1610-6MO STSEMOBlockedJenna Waltersblk Lucy Arndt, Alaina Lester+2.2
1710-7SEMOMO STBad setReagan Nelson+1.9
1811-7MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.3
1911-8SEMOMO STBlockedKatherine St. Johnblk Jenna Walters+1.9
2012-8MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+2.3
2112-9SEMOMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.9
2213-9MO STSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.3
2314-9SEMOSEMO×4Attack errRilynn Finley+3.0
2415-9SEMOSEMO×4Bad setHannah Gardner+2.3
2516-9SEMOSEMO×4BlockedRilynn Finleyblk Marin Johnson, Sydney Miller+1.6
2616-10SEMOMO ST×3KillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+0.7
2716-11MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+1.5
2816-12MO STMO ST×3AceMissouri St.aced Holland Guilliams+2.2
2917-12MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.9
3017-13SEMOMO ST×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.4
3117-14MO STMO ST×3KillHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+2.9
3217-15MO STMO ST×3KillHalle Kerkmanset Halle Rillie+3.9
3318-15MO STSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+3.2
3418-16SEMOMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.6
3519-16MO STSEMO×3KillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+3.4
3620-16SEMOSEMO×3Attack errHannah Gardner+4.0
3721-16SEMOSEMO×3BlockedHalle Kerkmanblk Katherine St. John, Alaina Lester+2.6
3821-17SEMOMO ST×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+0.9
3921-18MO STMO ST×3KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.4
4021-19MO STMO ST×3KillHalle Kerkmanset Brooke Eslinger+3.9
4122-19MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Nina Schuberth+3.8
4222-20SEMOMO STServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.4
4323-20MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+3.9
4423-21SEMOMO ST×5KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+2.1
4523-22MO STMO ST×5Bad setMegan Holder+6.0
4623-23MO STMO ST×5KillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+10.4
4723-24MO STMO ST×5BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Lexi Weinberg, Chloe Judd+13.7
4823-25MO STMO ST×5BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Lexi Weinberg+13.9
Set 4
10-1SEMOMO STAttack errMarin Johnson+2.4
21-1MO STSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.3
32-1SEMOSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+3.7
43-1SEMOSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Holland Guilliams+3.6
54-1SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Rilynn Finley+3.5
64-2SEMOMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.1
74-3MO STMO ST×4Attack errReagan Nelson+3.5
84-4MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+3.8
94-5MO STMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Riley Ourth+3.9
105-5MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+2.6
116-5SEMOSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+4.0
126-6SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.6
137-6MO STSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.7
147-7SEMOMO STAttack errLucy Arndt+2.7
158-7MO STSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+2.8
168-8SEMOMO STKillHalle Kerkmanset Halle Rillie+2.8
179-8MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+2.9
189-9SEMOMO STKillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+2.8
1910-9MO STSEMOBlockedLexi Weinbergblk Reagan Nelson+2.9
2010-10SEMOMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+2.9
2110-11MO STMO STAttack errMarin Johnson+4.7
2211-11MO STSEMOBlockedLexi Weinbergblk Jacey Young, Reagan Nelson+3.0
2311-12SEMOMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+3.2
2412-12MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+3.1
2512-13SEMOMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+3.3
2613-13MO STSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+3.3
2713-14SEMOMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+3.5
2814-14MO STSEMO×4KillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+3.4
2915-14SEMOSEMO×4KillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+5.5
3016-14SEMOSEMO×4KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+5.4
3117-14SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.+4.9
3217-15SEMOMO STAttack errReagan Nelson+2.6
3318-15MO STSEMOServe errMissouri St.+3.3
3418-16SEMOMO ST×4KillHannah Redrowset Halle Rillie+2.7
3518-17MO STMO ST×4BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+5.3
3618-18MO STMO ST×4Attack errKatherine St. John+6.4
3718-19MO STMO ST×4Attack errReagan Nelson+7.0
3819-19MO STSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+4.5
3920-19SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Nina Schuberth+7.6
4020-20SEMOMO ST×6KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+4.9
4120-21MO STMO ST×6KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+8.5
4220-22MO STMO ST×6KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+8.2
4320-23MO STMO ST×6BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+6.3
4420-24MO STMO ST×6KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+3.3
4520-25MO STMO ST×6AceMissouri St.aced Lucy Arndt+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).