Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on B1G+

UCLA def. Penn St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Penn St. 50.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 8:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCLA beat visiting Penn St. 3-2 (25-20, 15-25, 17-25, 26-24, 15-12) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Maggie Li led UCLA with 17 kills; Penn St.'s Kennedy Martin had a match-high 25.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set12345Sets
PENNST20252524122
UCLA25151726153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Kat Lutz, and UCLA needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are UCLA's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Penn St. went in at 50% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Penn St. 17–10 UCLA

    The bottom for UCLA, then 16 of the next 23 rallies and the set, 26–24. That flipped the match to UCLA.

    UCLA 2% → 51%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Penn St. 8–8 UCLA

    Penn St. scored 3 straight to go from 8–8 to an 11–8 lead.

    UCLA 48% → 14%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Penn St. 11–12 UCLA

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to UCLA, enough to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    UCLA 66% → >99%

UCLA above 50Penn St. belowMax swing 18.3%

Penn St.UCLA

Sideout %
Penn St. 57.7·UCLA 53.3
Break %
Penn St. 46.7·UCLA 42.3
Hitting
Penn St. .245·UCLA .179
Longest run
Penn St. 6·UCLA 5

Maggie Li
17 kills on .261, 18.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UCLA above 50 · Penn St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+18.3% UCLArally 204 · set 5

Biggest swing: 18.3% to UCLA — set 5, PENNST 11-12 UCLA. Kill by Maggie Li (set by Kate Duffey). UCLA win probability 47% → 66%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PENNST 63.1%36.9% UCLA

Penn St. wins

3-0
18.9%
3-1
24.2%
3-2
20.0%

UCLA wins

3-0
7.7%
3-1
13.3%
3-2
15.8%
PENNST break %
41.9% vs this opp
UCLA break %
39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Maggie LiKill+18.3%

    Kill by Maggie Li (set by Kate Duffey)

    Set 5 · PENNST 11-12 UCLA · UCLA 47% → 66%

  2. 02
    UCLAAce+17.6%

    UCLA ace on Haley Burgdorf

    Set 5 · PENNST 11-13 UCLA · UCLA 66% → 83%

  3. 03
    Whitney LauensteinAttack error+15.7%

    Attack error by Whitney Lauenstein

    Set 5 · PENNST 11-11 UCLA · UCLA 32% → 47%

  4. 04
    Maggie LiKill+14.9%

    Kill by Maggie Li (set by Kate Duffey)

    Set 4 · PENNST 24-26 UCLA · UCLA 36% → 51%

  5. 05

    Kennedy Martin stuffed by Maggie Li & Marianna Singletary

    Set 5 · PENNST 12-14 UCLA · UCLA 75% → 89%

  6. 06

    Brooke Harwood stuffed by Whitney Lauenstein & Gabrielle Nichols

    Set 4 · PENNST 24-24 UCLA · PENNST 59% → 73%

  7. 07

    Maggie Li stuffed by Gabrielle Nichols & Alexis Stucky

    Set 5 · PENNST 10-8 UCLA · PENNST 61% → 75%

  8. 08
    Alexis StuckyAttack error+12.2%

    Attack error by Alexis Stucky

    Set 5 · PENNST 8-8 UCLA · UCLA 36% → 48%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525568.29411170010.526.5
5191054.16711261031.521.5
55113.3080026018510
56212.333000200217
5214.25049111800425
5229.000202930002
51011.0008121020002
5000–100710000
49227.2590203002112
4000–011000001
1000–000000000
Team totals6923188.2456271168812011106
UCLAhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517546.26101181010.518.5
511829.1030000002112
58423.1740011004210
57637.027101400218
5001.0000301400003
5103.333480190111.52.5
510126.3461001002111
22Kat LutzL/DS
5000–3402840004
5102.5000001210001
2000–000200000
1011-1.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5525168.1795384797112798

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 PENNST · UCLA 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 PENNSTUCLA 4

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 6 PENNSTUCLA 5

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 PENNSTUCLA 4

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 2 PENNSTUCLA 5

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 4 PENNSTUCLA 5

Bars above the line = UCLA leads, below = Penn St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Penn St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
50%11/22
2
63%10/16
62%18/29
3
63%10/16
38%6/16
4
57%8/14
31%4/13
5
62%8/13
38%5/13
6
42%8/19
43%6/14
All
58%56/97
47%50/107

UCLA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%12/24
52%11/21
2
38%11/29
42%8/19
3
83%10/12
23%3/13
4
53%8/15
57%12/21
5
62%8/13
20%2/10
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
53%57/107
42%41/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

204 rallies

#PENNST-UCLASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCLAUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+2.6
20-2UCLAUCLAKillMaggie Liset Mija Bendziute+2.6
31-2UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
41-3PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kat Lutz+1.8
52-3UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
63-3PENNSTPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.7
73-4PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+1.9
84-4UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.9
94-5PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+2.0
105-5UCLAPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+1.9
116-5PENNSTPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.9
126-6PENNSTUCLAServe errHaley Burgdorf+2.0
137-6UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.1
148-6PENNSTPENNSTAttack errBrooke Harwood+2.9
158-7PENNSTUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+2.0
169-7UCLAPENNSTBlockedMija Bendziuteblk Alexis Stucky, Gabrielle Nichols+2.1
179-8PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+2.0
1810-8UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
1910-9PENNSTUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.1
2010-10UCLAUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+3.2
2110-11UCLAUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+3.3
2210-12UCLAUCLA×4AceKat Lutzaced Jocelyn Nathan+3.3
2311-12UCLAPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Kate Duffey+2.2
2411-13PENNSTUCLAServe errAva Falduto+2.4
2512-13UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
2612-14PENNSTUCLA×3KillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+2.5
2712-15UCLAUCLA×3Attack errHaley Burgdorf+3.3
2812-16UCLAUCLA×3KillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+2.9
2913-16UCLAPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+1.6
3013-17PENNSTUCLAServe errHaley Burgdorf+2.0
3114-17UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.6
3214-18PENNSTUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+2.1
3314-19UCLAUCLA×3KillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+2.2
3414-20UCLAUCLA×3KillKate Duffeyset Kat Lutz+1.5
3515-20UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+0.6
3616-20PENNSTPENNSTAttack errMija Bendziute+1.3
3716-21PENNSTUCLAServe errAlexis Stucky+1.4
3817-21UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+0.8
3917-22PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+1.3
4018-22UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.6
4119-22PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.6
4219-23PENNSTUCLAServe errAva Falduto+2.0
4320-23UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.9
4420-24PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+1.7
4520-25UCLAUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Eliana Urzua+0.7
Set 2
11-0PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.6
21-1PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+1.8
32-1UCLAPENNST×6KillAlexis Stuckyset Haley Burgdorf+1.8
43-1PENNSTPENNST×6BlockedBrooke Harwoodblk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein+2.6
54-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.5
65-1PENNSTPENNST×6Attack errBrooke Harwood+2.3
76-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.1
87-1PENNSTPENNST×6KillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+1.8
97-2PENNSTUCLAAttack errHaley Burgdorf+1.0
108-2UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.3
119-2PENNSTPENNSTAcePenn St.aced Kat Lutz+1.5
129-3PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+0.8
1310-3UCLAPENNSTBlockedMarianna Singletaryblk Gabrielle Nichols+1.0
1411-3PENNSTPENNSTBlockedMaggie Liblk Emmi Sellman, Kendall Northern+1.1
1511-4PENNSTUCLAServe errPenn St.+0.6
1612-4UCLAPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+0.8
1712-5PENNSTUCLAServe errPenn St.+0.5
1812-6UCLAUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+1.1
1913-6UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.0
2013-7PENNSTUCLA×5KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+0.7
2113-8UCLAUCLA×5AceUCLAaced Ava Falduto+1.4
2213-9UCLAUCLA×5KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+1.8
2313-10UCLAUCLA×5BlockedKennedy Martinblk Brooke Harwood, Mija Bendziute+2.3
2413-11UCLAUCLA×5Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+2.8
2514-11UCLAPENNST×5KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
2615-11PENNSTPENNST×5KillWhitney Lauenstein+2.8
2716-11PENNSTPENNST×5BlockedMija Bendziuteblk Gabrielle Nichols, Alexis Stucky+2.3
2817-11PENNSTPENNST×5Attack errBrooke Harwood+1.7
2918-11PENNSTPENNST×5KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.1
3018-12PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+0.5
3119-12UCLAPENNST×4KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+0.7
3220-12PENNSTPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.6
3321-12PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Kat Lutz+0.3
3422-12PENNSTPENNST×4KillAva Faldutoset Kennedy Martin+0.1
3522-13PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey·
3622-14UCLAUCLAAceUCLAaced Haley Burgdorf+0.1
3723-14UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+0.1
3823-15PENNSTUCLAServe errPenn St.·
3924-15UCLAPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Kat Lutz·
4025-15PENNSTPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky·
Set 3
11-0UCLAPENNSTAttack errMija Bendziute+2.4
21-1PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+2.4
32-1UCLAPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
43-1PENNSTPENNST×3AcePenn St.+3.5
54-1PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedMaggie Liblk Alexis Stucky, Gabrielle Nichols+3.4
64-2PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.2
75-2UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
85-3PENNSTUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.2
95-4UCLAUCLA×4KillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+3.5
105-5UCLAUCLA×4BlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Eliana Urzua, Marianna Singletary+3.7
115-6UCLAUCLA×4Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+3.8
126-6UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.7
136-7PENNSTUCLA×3Serve errPenn St.+2.7
146-8UCLAUCLA×3BlockedEmmi Sellmanblk Eliana Urzua, Marianna Singletary+3.9
156-9UCLAUCLA×3AceUCLAaced Ava Falduto+3.7
167-9UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
177-10PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+2.7
188-10UCLAPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.4
199-10PENNSTPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+3.9
209-11PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+3.0
2110-11UCLAPENNSTAttack errBrooke Harwood+2.8
2211-11PENNSTPENNSTAttack errMija Bendziute+4.4
2311-12PENNSTUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+3.2
2412-12UCLAPENNSTServe errUCLA+3.2
2512-13PENNSTUCLAAttack errGabrielle Nichols+3.3
2613-13UCLAPENNSTAttack errMarianna Singletary+3.3
2713-14PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+3.5
2814-14UCLAPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.5
2915-14PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+5.2
3016-14PENNSTPENNST×3Attack errEliana Urzua+5.2
3116-15PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Ava Falduto+3.3
3217-15UCLAPENNST×3Attack errMarianna Singletary+3.8
3318-15PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martin+4.9
3419-15PENNSTPENNST×3Attack errMija Bendziute+4.0
3519-16PENNSTUCLAServe errPenn St.+2.0
3620-16UCLAPENNSTServe errUCLA+2.8
3721-16PENNSTPENNSTAcePenn St.aced Kat Lutz+2.7
3821-17PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kat Lutz+1.1
3922-17UCLAPENNST×4KillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.8
4023-17PENNSTPENNST×4KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.2
4124-17PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errHazel Alevok+0.4
4225-17PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Kat Lutz+0.1
Set 4
11-0PENNSTPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+3.4
22-0PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Ava Falduto+3.4
32-1PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+2.3
43-1UCLAPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Haley Burgdorf+2.4
54-1PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.3
64-2PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.2
75-2UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
86-2PENNSTPENNSTAttack errBrooke Harwood+3.2
96-3PENNSTUCLA×3KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.0
106-4UCLAUCLA×3KillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+3.2
116-5UCLAUCLA×3Attack errEmmi Sellman+3.6
127-5UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Jocelyn Nathan+2.7
138-5PENNSTPENNSTAttack errMaggie Li+3.6
148-6PENNSTUCLAKillAva Utterbackset Kate Duffey+2.3
159-6UCLAPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+2.6
1610-6PENNSTPENNSTBad setKate Duffey+3.4
1710-7PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+2.1
1811-7UCLAPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Ava Falduto+2.4
1912-7PENNSTPENNSTAcePenn St.aced Maggie Li+3.0
2012-8PENNSTUCLABlockedKendall Northernblk Kate Duffey, Marianna Singletary+1.7
2113-8UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+2.1
2214-8PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Ava Falduto+2.4
2314-9PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+1.2
2415-9UCLAPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.6
2516-9PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
2616-10PENNSTUCLAKillBrooke Harwoodset Kat Lutz+0.8
2717-10UCLAPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.1
2817-11PENNSTUCLA×5KillBrooke Harwoodset Kate Duffey+0.7
2917-12UCLAUCLA×5KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+1.5
3017-13UCLAUCLA×5Attack errKennedy Martin+2.2
3117-14UCLAUCLA×5AceUCLA+3.0
3217-15UCLAUCLA×5Bad setAva Falduto+3.9
3318-15UCLAPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+3.4
3419-15PENNSTPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+4.0
3519-16PENNSTUCLAServe errPenn St.+2.0
3620-16UCLAPENNSTServe errUCLA+2.8
3720-17PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+1.9
3821-17UCLAPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.8
3921-18PENNSTUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+1.8
4021-19UCLAUCLAAttack errWhitney Lauenstein+4.0
4122-19UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Whitney Lauenstein+4.1
4222-20PENNSTUCLA×5BlockedKennedy Martinblk Brooke Harwood, Mija Bendziute+2.6
4322-21UCLAUCLA×5AceUCLAaced Haley Burgdorf+6.1
4422-22UCLAUCLA×5Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+8.8
4522-23UCLAUCLA×5AceUCLAaced Whitney Lauenstein+10.8
4622-24UCLAUCLA×5Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+10.2
4723-24UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.9
4824-24PENNSTPENNSTBlockedBrooke Harwoodblk Whitney Lauenstein, Gabrielle Nichols+13.5
4924-25PENNSTUCLAAttack errWhitney Lauenstein+9.4
5024-26UCLAUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+14.9
Set 5
10-1PENNSTUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+6.2
21-1UCLAPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+6.2
32-1PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedMaggie Liblk Emmi Sellman, Gabrielle Nichols+9.2
43-1PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedMarianna Singletaryblk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin+9.2
54-1PENNSTPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+8.6
64-2PENNSTUCLAAttack errKennedy Martin+5.2
74-3UCLAUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+8.8
85-3UCLAPENNSTServe errUCLA+6.9
95-4PENNSTUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+6.4
106-4UCLAPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+7.2
116-5PENNSTUCLAAttack errKendall Northern+6.6
127-5UCLAPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+7.6
138-5PENNSTPENNSTBlockedBrooke Harwoodblk Whitney Lauenstein, Kendall Northern+9.9
148-6PENNSTUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+5.6
158-7UCLAUCLA×3BlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Kate Duffey+10.3
168-8UCLAUCLA×3Attack errAlexis Stucky+12.2
179-8UCLAPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Ava Falduto+9.3
1810-8PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedMaggie Liblk Gabrielle Nichols, Alexis Stucky+13.1
1911-8PENNSTPENNST×3AcePenn St.aced Ava Utterback+11.2
2011-9PENNSTUCLA×5KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+5.5
2111-10UCLAUCLA×5Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+11.7
2211-11UCLAUCLA×5Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+15.7
2311-12UCLAUCLA×5KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+18.3
2411-13UCLAUCLA×5AceUCLAaced Haley Burgdorf+17.6
2512-13UCLAPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+8.6
2612-14PENNSTUCLABlockedKennedy Martinblk Maggie Li, Marianna Singletary+14.3
2712-15UCLAUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+11.1

Score shown after each rally, Penn St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).