Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMVC

1:3

HomeOVC

Southern Ind. def. Murray St. 3–1

(25-22, 16-25, 25-15, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
MURRAY	22	25	15	16	1
S IND	25	16	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S IND above 50 · MURRAY below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Murray St. — set 3, MURRAY 5-2 S IND. Leah Coleman stuffed by Lily Burnett & Alexa Watts. S IND win probability 82% → 79%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MURRAY 7.8%92.2% S IND

Murray St. wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0

48.5%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

12.5%

MURRAY break %: 36.4% vs this opp
S IND break %: 47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Leah ColemanAttack error+2.7%
Leah Coleman stuffed by Lily Burnett & Alexa Watts
Set 3 · MURRAY 5-2 S IND · MURRAY 18% → 21%
02
Anne MakowskiAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Anne Makowski
Set 3 · MURRAY 8-8 S IND · S IND 82% → 85%
03
Anne MakowskiKill+2.4%
Kill by Anne Makowski (set by Paige Brock)
Set 3 · MURRAY 4-2 S IND · MURRAY 15% → 18%
04
Aubrey FairKill+2.3%
Kill by Aubrey Fair (set by Audrey Small)
Set 3 · MURRAY 5-4 S IND · S IND 81% → 83%
05
Aubrey FairAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Aubrey Fair
Set 3 · MURRAY 13-14 S IND · MURRAY 11% → 13%
06
MURRAY serverAce+2.3%
Murray St. ace on Kerigan Fehr
Set 3 · MURRAY 2-0 S IND · MURRAY 15% → 17%
07
S IND serverAce+2.2%
Southern Ind. ace on Mija Sagadin Pristovnik
Set 3 · MURRAY 8-9 S IND · S IND 85% → 87%
08
Lily BurnettKill+2.1%
Kill by Lily Burnett (set by Samantha Nelson)
Set 3 · MURRAY 11-12 S IND · MURRAY 11% → 13%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Murray St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Anne MakowskiOH	4	18	4	46	.304	0	0	3	9	6	0	2	1	19
5Lily BurnettOH	4	4	1	12	.250	0	1	1	0	1	1	4	3	8
15Alexa WattsOH	4	6	4	26	.077	0	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
11Maezi Snyder	4	7	1	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
14Mija Sagadin PristovnikOH	4	4	6	24	-.083	0	3	1	10	3	0	0	0	7
2Paige BrockS	4	0	0	5	.000	33	2	0	8	0	0	0	0	2
1Ada TamturkL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
3Samantha NelsonL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
22Bailey KeuschDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Ceren DurakOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	16	123	.187	37	6	5	45	11	1	10	6	78

Southern Ind.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ashby WillisOH	4	18	2	41	.390	0	4	2	7	1	0	2	1	23
7Carley WrightOH	4	14	4	30	.333	1	1	2	7	0	2	2	3	18
2Aysa ThomasS	4	4	0	10	.400	43	3	1	8	0	0	0	0	7
9Grace BachMB	4	4	5	14	-.071	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
4Kerigan FehrL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	7	4	0	0	0	0
19Maeve MoonanMB	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Aubrey FairOH	4	7	2	12	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
13Mackenzie NettlesOH	4	2	2	9	.000	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Audrey SmallL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	7	2	3	18	0	0	0	0	2
22Leah ColemanOH	3	5	6	18	-.056	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
Team totals		57	21	137	.263	53	11	11	51	6	2	10	7	91

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MURRAY · S IND 9

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 MURRAYS IND 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 MURRAYS IND 3

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYS IND 9

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYS IND 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	46%6/13
2	60%9/15	31%4/13
3	41%9/22	31%4/13
4	57%8/14	40%6/15
5	88%7/8	56%10/18
6	43%6/14	0%0/7
All	53%48/90	38%30/79

Southern Ind.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	50%8/16
2	69%9/13	47%8/17
3	75%9/12	57%12/21
4	53%8/15	43%6/14
5	50%7/14	30%3/10
6	88%7/8	42%5/12
All	62%49/79	47%42/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

169 rallies

Rally log

#	MURRAY-S IND	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Audrey Small	+0.8
2	1-1	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.6
3	2-1	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Grace Bach		+1.0
4	2-2	MURRAY	S IND	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.7
5	2-3	S IND	S IND	Kill	Maeve Moonan	set Paige Brock	+0.9
6	3-3	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.7
7	3-4	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
8	3-5	S IND	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
9	4-5	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.6
10	5-5	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.0
11	5-6	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Maeve Moonan	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
12	6-6	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.8
13	6-7	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
14	7-7	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.8
15	7-8	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
16	7-9	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Lily Burnett	blk Grace Bach, Ashby Willis	+0.9
17	7-10	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
18	8-10	S IND	MURRAY	Attack err	Carley Wright	blk Anne Makowski, Lily Burnett	+0.6
19	8-11	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
20	9-11	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.6
21	9-12	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
22	10-12	S IND	MURRAY	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Alexa Watts, Lily Burnett	+0.6
23	10-13	MURRAY	S IND	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Maeve Moonan, Carley Wright	+0.6
24	11-13	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.6
25	11-14	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
26	12-14	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
27	12-15	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Ada Tamturk	+0.7
28	13-15	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.6
29	13-16	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
30	14-16	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.7
31	15-16	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Grace Bach	+1.3
32	15-17	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
33	15-18	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Samantha Nelson	+1.1
34	16-18	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.7
35	16-19	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
36	16-20	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.8
37	17-20	S IND	MURRAY	Attack err	Ashby Willis	blk Lily Burnett	+0.4
38	17-21	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
39	18-21	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.4
40	18-22	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Maeve Moonan	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
41	18-23	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+0.4
42	18-24	S IND	S IND×3	Bad set	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+0.1
43	19-24	S IND	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.0
44	20-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.1
45	21-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+0.2
46	22-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.5
47	22-25	MURRAY	S IND	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.8
Set 2
1	1-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.7
2	1-1	MURRAY	S IND	Attack err	Alexa Watts	blk Ashby Willis, Grace Bach	+0.4
3	1-2	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+0.6
4	2-2	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
5	2-3	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
6	3-3	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.5
7	3-4	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
8	4-4	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.5
9	4-5	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Carley Wright	+0.4
10	5-5	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
11	6-5	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Carley Wright		+0.8
12	6-6	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
13	7-6	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.6
14	7-7	MURRAY	S IND	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.5
15	7-8	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+0.7
16	8-8	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
17	8-9	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
18	9-9	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
19	10-9	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Leah Coleman		+0.9
20	10-10	MURRAY	S IND	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.6
21	11-10	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.7
22	12-10	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Ashby Willis	+1.1
23	12-11	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
24	12-12	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
25	12-13	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
26	13-13	S IND	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Leah Coleman		+0.7
27	14-13	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Carley Wright		+1.1
28	15-13	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+1.3
29	16-13	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Leah Coleman		+1.4
30	16-14	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Leah Coleman	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
31	17-14	S IND	MURRAY×7	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.1
32	18-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Attack err	Mackenzie Nettles		+1.4
33	19-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.2
34	20-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.0
35	21-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
36	22-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.3
37	23-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Attack err	Mackenzie Nettles		+0.1
38	23-15	MURRAY	S IND	Bad set	Paige Brock		+0.0
39	24-15	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.1
40	24-16	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
41	25-16	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	S IND	MURRAY	Attack err	Grace Bach		+1.5
2	2-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+2.3
3	2-1	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+1.4
4	2-2	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+1.9
5	3-2	S IND	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts	+1.6
6	4-2	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+2.4
7	5-2	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Leah Coleman	blk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts	+2.7
8	5-3	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
9	5-4	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+2.3
10	6-4	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Samantha Nelson	+1.9
11	6-5	MURRAY	S IND	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.6
12	7-5	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+2.0
13	7-6	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.7
14	8-6	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+2.1
15	8-7	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.8
16	8-8	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+2.4
17	8-9	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+2.2
18	9-9	S IND	MURRAY	Attack err	Grace Bach		+1.7
19	9-10	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
20	9-11	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+2.0
21	9-12	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+1.7
22	10-12	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.2
23	11-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Samantha Nelson	+2.1
24	11-13	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
25	11-14	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Alexa Watts		+1.8
26	12-14	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.2
27	13-14	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+2.3
28	13-15	MURRAY	S IND×9	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.7
29	13-16	S IND	S IND×9	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles		+2.0
30	13-17	S IND	S IND×9	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+1.5
31	13-18	S IND	S IND×9	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
32	13-19	S IND	S IND×9	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+0.6
33	13-20	S IND	S IND×9	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.3
34	13-21	S IND	S IND×9	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Carley Wright	+0.1
35	13-22	S IND	S IND×9	Ace	S IND server	aced Lily Burnett	+0.1
36	13-23	S IND	S IND×9	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
37	14-23	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.0
38	15-23	MURRAY	MURRAY	Bad set	Aysa Thomas		+0.0
39	15-24	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
40	15-25	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Aubrey Fair	+0.0
Set 4
1	1-0	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.5
2	2-0	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Carley Wright		+1.7
3	3-0	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Grace Bach		+1.8
4	3-1	MURRAY	S IND	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.1
5	4-1	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.4
6	4-2	MURRAY	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
7	4-3	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Carley Wright	+1.6
8	4-4	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.5
9	5-4	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+1.2
10	5-5	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.1
11	5-6	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+1.4
12	6-6	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+1.1
13	6-7	MURRAY	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
14	6-8	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+1.3
15	6-9	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik		+1.1
16	6-10	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
17	7-10	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Paige Brock	+0.6
18	7-11	MURRAY	S IND	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.6
19	8-11	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.6
20	8-12	MURRAY	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
21	8-13	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+0.7
22	8-14	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
23	8-15	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	blk Carley Wright	+0.3
24	9-15	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.2
25	10-15	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Grace Bach	blk Maezi Snyder, Anne Makowski	+0.4
26	10-16	MURRAY	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.3
27	10-17	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+0.3
28	10-18	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Anne Makowski	+0.2
29	10-19	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Maezi Snyder	blk Aubrey Fair, Grace Bach	+0.1
30	11-19	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.0
31	11-20	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
32	12-20	S IND	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts		+0.0
33	12-21	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
34	13-21	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.0
35	14-21	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+0.0
36	14-22	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
37	15-22	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.0
38	15-23	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
39	15-24	S IND	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Kerigan Fehr	+0.0
40	16-24	S IND	MURRAY	Serve err	S IND server		+0.0
41	16-25	MURRAY	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.