NIU vs Southern Ind. Volleyball: Southern Ind. Wins 3-0

FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

0:3

Southern Ind. beat visiting NIU 3-0 (25-18, 25-19, 25-19) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026. Southern Ind.'s Ashby Willis led with 17 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Aug 29

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NIU	18	19	19	0
S IND	25	25	25	3

Win probability

Southern Ind. above 50 · NIU below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to NIU — set 1, NIU 3-1 S IND. Carley Wright stuffed by Ava Grevengoed & Rylea Alvin. S IND win probability 73% → 71%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIU 25.3%74.7% S IND

NIU wins

3-0

4.5%

3-1

8.7%

3-2

12.1%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0

26.8%

3-1

28.6%

3-2

19.3%

NIU break %: 39.8% vs this opp
S IND break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Ava Grevengoed&Rylea AlvinBlock+2.3%
Carley Wright stuffed by Ava Grevengoed & Rylea Alvin
Set 1 · NIU 3-1 S IND · NIU 27% → 29%
02
Katie PahlBlock+2.2%
Aubrey Fair stuffed by Katie Pahl
Set 1 · NIU 6-6 S IND · NIU 23% → 25%
03
Carley WrightKill+2.1%
Kill by Carley Wright (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 1 · NIU 3-3 S IND · S IND 72% → 74%
04
Southern Ind.Ace+2.1%
Southern Ind. ace on Delaney Steers
Set 1 · NIU 6-8 S IND · S IND 76% → 78%
05
Southern Ind.Ace+2.1%
Southern Ind. ace on Charlotte Gramzow
Set 1 · NIU 3-4 S IND · S IND 74% → 77%
06
NIUAce+1.9%
NIU ace on Audrey Small
Set 1 · NIU 5-6 S IND · NIU 21% → 23%
07
Ellie SmithBad set+1.9%
Bad set by Ellie Smith
Set 1 · NIU 7-10 S IND · S IND 78% → 80%
08
Carley WrightKill+1.9%
Kill by Carley Wright (set by Audrey Small)
Set 1 · NIU 3-5 S IND · S IND 77% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

NIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Katie PahlOH	3	9	3	21	.286	1	2	2	9	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	7	0	18	.389	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
9Delaney SteersOH	3	5	2	17	.176	2	0	0	10	1	1	1	1.5	6.5
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	5	2	24	.125	0	0	0	8	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	4	4	20	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	1	0	7	.143	23	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	12	4	0	0	0	2
14Naomi DowdOH	2	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Ellie SmithS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
4Kiana ShieldsMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Lilly AbneyOH	1	0	2	9	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	14	118	.153	31	4	6	49	8	2	8	6	56

Southern Ind.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ashby WillisOH	3	17	5	42	.286	0	0	1	17	0	1	1	1.5	18.5
7Carley WrightOH	3	12	2	26	.385	0	2	0	12	0	0	2	1	15
13Mackenzie NettlesOH	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
9Grace BachMB	3	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
4Kerigan FehrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	8	2	0	0	0	2
2Aysa ThomasS	3	1	0	2	.500	34	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	1
3Aubrey FairOH	3	7	4	22	.136	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	8
17Aspen JankowskiS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	2	3	0	0	0	0	3
5Audrey SmallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	2	11	2	0	0	0	1
Team totals		45	12	113	.292	41	8	7	66	4	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NIU · S IND 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 NIUS IND 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 6 NIUS IND 6

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 NIUS IND 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	50%5/10
2	58%7/12	36%4/11
3	42%5/12	46%6/13
4	63%5/8	38%3/8
5	29%5/17	0%0/5
6	31%4/13	50%5/10
All	45%33/74	40%23/57

Southern Ind.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	50%6/12
2	58%7/12	46%6/13
3	63%5/8	50%5/10
4	83%5/6	38%3/8
5	100%5/5	62%8/13
6	36%5/14	72%13/18
All	60%34/57	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

131 rallies

#	NIU-S IND	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.5
2	1-1	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU		+1.5
3	2-1	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.6
4	3-1	NIU	NIU	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Ava Grevengoed, Rylea Alvin	+2.3
5	3-2	NIU	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.5
6	3-3	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.1
7	3-4	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+2.1
8	3-5	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.9
9	3-6	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.7
10	4-6	S IND	NIU×3	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.2
11	5-6	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU	aced Audrey Small	+1.9
12	6-6	NIU	NIU×3	Blocked	Aubrey Fair	blk Katie Pahl	+2.2
13	6-7	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.6
14	6-8	S IND	S IND	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Delaney Steers	+2.1
15	7-8	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.5
16	7-9	NIU	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
17	7-10	S IND	S IND×4	Bad set	Ellie Smith		+1.9
18	7-11	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Ellie Smith	+1.7
19	7-12	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.3
20	8-12	S IND	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ellie Smith	+0.8
21	8-13	NIU	S IND×5	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
22	8-14	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+1.0
23	8-15	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Ellie Smith	+0.7
24	8-16	S IND	S IND×5	Blocked	Delaney Steers	blk Grace Bach, Ashby Willis	+0.5
25	8-17	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Ava Grevengoed	+0.3
26	9-17	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+0.1
27	10-17	NIU	NIU	Blocked	Grace Bach	blk Delaney Steers	+0.3
28	10-18	NIU	S IND×4	Serve err	NIU		+0.3
29	10-19	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Kylie Schulze	+0.2
30	10-20	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
31	10-21	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Lilly Abney		·
32	11-21	S IND	NIU×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		·
33	12-21	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	·
34	13-21	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
35	14-21	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.1
36	14-22	NIU	S IND×3	Blocked	Lilly Abney	blk Carley Wright, Grace Bach	+0.1
37	14-23	S IND	S IND×3	Blocked	Katie Pahl	blk Grace Bach, Aubrey Fair	+0.1
38	14-24	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	·
39	15-24	S IND	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	·
40	16-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	·
41	17-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	·
42	18-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	·
43	18-25	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NIU	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+1.7
2	1-1	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU		+1.2
3	1-2	S IND	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach		+1.6
4	2-2	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.2
5	2-3	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.1
6	3-3	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.2
7	3-4	NIU	S IND×3	Blocked	Ava Grevengoed	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Carley Wright	+1.2
8	3-5	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles		+1.5
9	3-6	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+1.4
10	4-6	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.0
11	4-7	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU		+1.0
12	5-7	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Ellie Smith	+1.0
13	5-8	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
14	5-9	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.3
15	6-9	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+0.8
16	6-10	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Kerigan Fehr	+0.9
17	7-10	S IND	NIU	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Rylea Alvin, Delaney Steers	+0.9
18	7-11	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
19	8-11	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.9
20	8-12	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.0
21	9-12	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+0.9
22	10-12	NIU	NIU	Blocked	Aubrey Fair	blk Autumn Flynn, Katie Pahl	+1.5
23	10-13	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
24	11-13	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.1
25	12-13	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU	aced Audrey Small	+1.9
26	12-14	NIU	S IND×3	Serve err	NIU		+1.5
27	12-15	S IND	S IND×3	Bad set	Ellie Smith		+1.8
28	12-16	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
29	13-16	S IND	NIU	Bad set	Audrey Small		+0.9
30	13-17	NIU	S IND×6	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.1
31	13-18	S IND	S IND×6	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.1
32	13-19	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
33	13-20	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
34	13-21	S IND	S IND×6	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.2
35	13-22	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
36	14-22	S IND	NIU×6	Kill	Kylie Schulze	set Delaney Steers	·
37	15-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
38	16-22	NIU	NIU×6	Blocked	Ashby Willis	blk Rylea Alvin, Kylie Schulze	+0.1
39	17-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.2
40	18-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Katie Pahl	+0.5
41	19-22	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.9
42	19-23	NIU	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.1
43	19-24	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+0.6
44	19-25	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
2	1-1	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.6
3	1-2	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
4	1-3	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
5	2-3	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
6	3-3	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+0.9
7	3-4	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.6
8	4-4	S IND	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
9	4-5	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU		+0.6
10	5-5	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
11	5-6	NIU	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
12	5-7	S IND	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
13	6-7	S IND	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
14	6-8	NIU	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
15	6-9	S IND	S IND×4	Blocked	Katie Pahl	blk Ashby Willis	+0.8
16	6-10	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+0.7
17	6-11	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
18	7-11	S IND	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.4
19	8-11	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU	aced Kerigan Fehr	+0.6
20	9-11	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
21	9-12	NIU	S IND	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+0.6
22	10-12	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
23	11-12	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.0
24	11-13	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
25	11-14	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.9
26	12-14	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
27	12-15	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
28	13-15	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
29	13-16	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
30	14-16	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
31	14-17	NIU	S IND×3	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
32	14-18	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+0.8
33	14-19	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
34	15-19	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.3
35	15-20	NIU	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
36	16-20	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Delaney Steers	+0.3
37	17-20	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.6
38	17-21	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
39	18-21	S IND	NIU	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+0.4
40	18-22	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
41	18-23	S IND	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.4
42	19-23	S IND	NIU	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+0.1
43	19-24	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.2
44	19-25	S IND	S IND	Blocked	Autumn Flynn	blk Aubrey Fair, Mackenzie Nettles	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Southern Ind. def. NIU 3–0