FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayHORIZON

0:3

HomeOVC

Southern Ind. def. NIU 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NIU	18	19	19	0
S IND	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S IND above 50 · NIU below

Biggest swing: 2.3% to NIU — set 1, NIU 3-1 S IND. Carley Wright stuffed by Ava Grevengoed & Rylea Alvin. S IND win probability 70% → 67%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NIU 28.5%71.5% S IND

NIU wins

3-0

5.3%

3-1

9.9%

3-2

13.3%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0

24.3%

3-1

27.4%

3-2

19.7%

NIU break %: 42.2% vs this opp
S IND break %: 46.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Carley WrightAttack error+2.3%
Carley Wright stuffed by Ava Grevengoed & Rylea Alvin
Set 1 · NIU 3-1 S IND · NIU 30% → 33%
02
Aubrey FairAttack error+2.3%
Aubrey Fair stuffed by Katie Pahl
Set 1 · NIU 6-6 S IND · NIU 26% → 29%
03
S IND serverAce+2.2%
Southern Ind. ace on Delaney Steers
Set 1 · NIU 6-8 S IND · S IND 73% → 75%
04
Carley WrightKill+2.2%
Kill by Carley Wright (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 1 · NIU 3-3 S IND · S IND 69% → 71%
05
S IND serverAce+2.1%
Southern Ind. ace on Charlotte Gramzow
Set 1 · NIU 3-4 S IND · S IND 71% → 73%
06
NIU serverAce+2.0%
NIU ace on Audrey Small
Set 1 · NIU 5-6 S IND · NIU 24% → 26%
07
NIU serverAce+2.0%
NIU ace on Audrey Small
Set 2 · NIU 12-13 S IND · NIU 12% → 14%
08
Ellie SmithBad set+2.0%
Bad set by Ellie Smith
Set 1 · NIU 7-10 S IND · S IND 75% → 77%

Official NCAA box

Box score

NIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Katie PahlOH	3	9	3	21	.286	1	2	2	9	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	7	0	18	.389	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
9Delaney SteersOH	3	5	2	17	.176	2	0	0	10	1	1	1	1.5	6.5
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	5	2	24	.125	0	0	0	8	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	4	4	20	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	1	0	7	.143	23	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	12	4	0	0	0	2
14Naomi DowdOH	2	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Ellie SmithS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
4Kiana ShieldsMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Lilly AbneyOH	1	0	2	9	-.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	14	118	.153	31	4	6	49	8	2	8	6	56

Southern Ind.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ashby WillisOH	3	17	5	42	.286	0	0	1	17	0	1	1	1.5	18.5
7Carley WrightOH	3	12	2	26	.385	0	2	0	12	0	0	2	1	15
13Mackenzie NettlesOH	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
9Grace BachMB	3	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
4Kerigan FehrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	8	2	0	0	0	2
2Aysa ThomasS	3	1	0	2	.500	34	0	2	9	0	0	0	0	1
3Aubrey FairOH	3	7	4	22	.136	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	8
17Aspen JankowskiS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	2	3	0	0	0	0	3
5Audrey SmallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	2	11	2	0	0	0	1
Team totals		45	12	113	.292	41	8	7	66	4	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 NIU · S IND 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 NIUS IND 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 6 NIUS IND 6

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 NIUS IND 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	50%5/10
2	58%7/12	36%4/11
3	42%5/12	46%6/13
4	63%5/8	38%3/8
5	29%5/17	0%0/5
6	31%4/13	50%5/10
All	45%33/74	40%23/57

Southern Ind.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	50%6/12
2	58%7/12	46%6/13
3	63%5/8	50%5/10
4	83%5/6	38%3/8
5	100%5/5	62%8/13
6	36%5/14	72%13/18
All	60%34/57	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	NIU-S IND	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.7
2	1-1	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU server		+1.6
3	2-1	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.7
4	3-1	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Carley Wright	blk Ava Grevengoed, Rylea Alvin	+2.3
5	3-2	NIU	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.7
6	3-3	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.2
7	3-4	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	S IND server	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+2.1
8	3-5	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+2.0
9	3-6	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.8
10	4-6	S IND	NIU×3	Serve err	S IND server		+1.4
11	5-6	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Audrey Small	+2.0
12	6-6	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Aubrey Fair	blk Katie Pahl	+2.3
13	6-7	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.8
14	6-8	S IND	S IND	Ace	S IND server	aced Delaney Steers	+2.2
15	7-8	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.7
16	7-9	NIU	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.8
17	7-10	S IND	S IND×4	Bad set	Ellie Smith		+2.0
18	7-11	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Ellie Smith	+1.8
19	7-12	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
20	8-12	S IND	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ellie Smith	+1.0
21	8-13	NIU	S IND×5	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
22	8-14	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+1.2
23	8-15	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	S IND server	aced Ellie Smith	+0.9
24	8-16	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Delaney Steers	blk Grace Bach, Ashby Willis	+0.6
25	8-17	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	S IND server	aced Ava Grevengoed	+0.4
26	9-17	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+0.2
27	10-17	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Grace Bach	blk Delaney Steers	+0.4
28	10-18	NIU	S IND×4	Serve err	NIU server		+0.4
29	10-19	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Kylie Schulze	+0.3
30	10-20	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
31	10-21	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Lilly Abney		+0.1
32	11-21	S IND	NIU×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.0
33	12-21	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
34	13-21	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
35	14-21	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.2
36	14-22	NIU	S IND×3	Attack err	Lilly Abney	blk Carley Wright, Grace Bach	+0.2
37	14-23	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Grace Bach, Aubrey Fair	+0.1
38	14-24	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.0
39	15-24	S IND	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
40	16-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
41	17-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
42	18-24	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
43	18-25	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NIU	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+1.7
2	1-1	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU server		+1.3
3	1-2	S IND	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach		+1.6
4	2-2	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.4
5	2-3	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.3
6	3-3	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
7	3-4	NIU	S IND×3	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Carley Wright	+1.4
8	3-5	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles		+1.6
9	3-6	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+1.5
10	4-6	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.2
11	4-7	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU server		+1.2
12	5-7	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Ellie Smith	+1.2
13	5-8	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
14	5-9	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.4
15	6-9	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.0
16	6-10	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aysa Thomas	set Kerigan Fehr	+1.1
17	7-10	S IND	NIU	Attack err	Carley Wright	blk Rylea Alvin, Delaney Steers	+1.0
18	7-11	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.1
19	8-11	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.1
20	8-12	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
21	9-12	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+1.1
22	10-12	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Aubrey Fair	blk Autumn Flynn, Katie Pahl	+1.6
23	10-13	NIU	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.4
24	11-13	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
25	12-13	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Audrey Small	+2.0
26	12-14	NIU	S IND×3	Serve err	NIU server		+1.7
27	12-15	S IND	S IND×3	Bad set	Ellie Smith		+1.9
28	12-16	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
29	13-16	S IND	NIU	Bad set	Audrey Small		+1.1
30	13-17	NIU	S IND×6	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.3
31	13-18	S IND	S IND×6	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.3
32	13-19	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
33	13-20	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
34	13-21	S IND	S IND×6	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.3
35	13-22	S IND	S IND×6	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.1
36	14-22	S IND	NIU×6	Kill	Kylie Schulze	set Delaney Steers	+0.0
37	15-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
38	16-22	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Ashby Willis	blk Rylea Alvin, Kylie Schulze	+0.2
39	17-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.3
40	18-22	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Katie Pahl	+0.6
41	19-22	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+1.1
42	19-23	NIU	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.4
43	19-24	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+0.8
44	19-25	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.2
Set 3
1	0-1	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Kylie Schulze	+0.9
2	1-1	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.7
3	1-2	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
4	1-3	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
5	2-3	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
6	3-3	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+0.9
7	3-4	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+0.7
8	4-4	S IND	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
9	4-5	NIU	S IND	Serve err	NIU server		+0.8
10	5-5	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
11	5-6	NIU	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
12	5-7	S IND	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
13	6-7	S IND	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
14	6-8	NIU	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
15	6-9	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Ashby Willis	+0.9
16	6-10	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	S IND server	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+0.8
17	6-11	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.6
18	7-11	S IND	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.5
19	8-11	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+0.7
20	9-11	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.9
21	9-12	NIU	S IND	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+0.8
22	10-12	S IND	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
23	11-12	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.1
24	11-13	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
25	11-14	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.0
26	12-14	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
27	12-15	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
28	13-15	S IND	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
29	13-16	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
30	14-16	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.8
31	14-17	NIU	S IND×3	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
32	14-18	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	S IND server	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+0.9
33	14-19	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.7
34	15-19	S IND	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.4
35	15-20	NIU	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
36	16-20	S IND	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Delaney Steers	+0.4
37	17-20	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Ashby Willis		+0.7
38	17-21	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
39	18-21	S IND	NIU	Serve err	S IND server		+0.5
40	18-22	NIU	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.8
41	18-23	S IND	S IND	Kill	Grace Bach	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
42	19-23	S IND	NIU	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+0.2
43	19-24	NIU	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.3
44	19-25	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Aubrey Fair, Mackenzie Nettles	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.