FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeCUSA

Sam Houston def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–0

(25-16, 25-15, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CSFULL	16	15	21	0
SAMHOU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SAMHOU above 50 · CSFULL below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 1, CSFULL 4-0 SAMHOU. Cal St. Fullerton ace on Chloe Monson. SAMHOU win probability 92% → 91%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CSFULL 5.2%94.8% SAMHOU

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.1%

Sam Houston wins

3-0

54.8%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

10.1%

CSFULL break %: 35.9% vs this opp
SAMHOU break %: 48.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CSFULL serverAce+1.1%
Cal St. Fullerton ace on Chloe Monson
Set 1 · CSFULL 4-0 SAMHOU · CSFULL 8% → 9%
02
Bella WoodAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Bella Wood
Set 1 · CSFULL 3-0 SAMHOU · CSFULL 7% → 8%
03
Chloe MonsonKill+1.0%
Kill by Chloe Monson (set by Lauren Pyle)
Set 1 · CSFULL 6-4 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 91% → 92%
04
Annika BrooksAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Annika Brooks
Set 1 · CSFULL 10-10 SAMHOU · CSFULL 5% → 6%
05
Italia BernalBad set+0.9%
Bad set by Italia Bernal
Set 1 · CSFULL 6-5 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 92% → 93%
06
Chloe MonsonAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Chloe Monson
Set 1 · CSFULL 6-2 SAMHOU · CSFULL 8% → 9%
07
Faith RoulstonAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Faith Roulston
Set 1 · CSFULL 2-0 SAMHOU · CSFULL 6% → 7%
08
SAMHOU serverAce+0.9%
Sam Houston ace on Parys Taylor
Set 1 · CSFULL 6-6 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cal St. Fullertonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Sofia ShineOH	3	7	7	35	.000	0	0	3	4	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Parys TaylorOH	3	4	4	12	.000	0	3	1	6	1	0	0	7
9Hannah HassMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Zariah CrosbyMB	3	0	3	7	-.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
12Italia BernalS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	3	8	0	0	0	0
11Mia FeldhausL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	3	0	0	0
5Bella RislingOH	3	5	2	16	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
21Ava PondOH	3	2	6	17	-.235	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
15Kaieva ChristensenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0
14Arianna EllisOH	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
7Jaiden MojicaS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	6	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
6Sibley OsterS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	25	102	-.010	22	3	12	31	6	4	2	52

Sam Houstonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Chloe MonsonOH	3	12	5	27	.259	0	0	3	3	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
6Faith RoulstonMB	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
20Bella WoodOH	3	5	3	18	.111	1	0	3	7	1	0	0	0	5
8Chelsea ButlerMB	3	3	2	6	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
12Rachelle ReedOH	3	1	0	4	.250	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	2	3
2Brenlin GarlitzS	3	1	0	1	1.000	13	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	3
17Annika BrooksOH	3	4	0	10	.400	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	5
15Lauren PyleS	3	0	0	3	.000	10	3	2	6	0	0	0	0	3
3Shaelin WhiteDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	2	17	1	0	0	0	1
13Avery PruittDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		31	11	82	.244	29	6	12	45	3	3	8	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CSFULL · SAMHOU 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLSAMHOU 6

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 CSFULLSAMHOU 5

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 CSFULLSAMHOU 4

Bars above the line = Sam Houston leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cal St. Fullerton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	60%9/15
2	75%6/8	25%2/8
3	30%6/20	14%1/7
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	45%5/11	14%1/7
6	40%4/10	38%3/8
All	45%33/73	35%19/54

Sam Houston

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%6/15	64%7/11
2	75%6/8	50%6/12
3	75%6/8	50%6/12
4	75%6/8	65%11/17
5	67%6/9	57%8/14
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	65%35/54	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	CSFULL-SAMHOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Bella Wood	+0.7
2	2-0	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Faith Roulston		+0.9
3	3-0	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Bella Wood		+1.0
4	4-0	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Chloe Monson	+1.1
5	4-1	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.6
6	5-1	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.8
7	5-2	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.7
8	6-2	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+0.9
9	6-3	CSFULL	SAMHOU×6	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.7
10	6-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+1.0
11	6-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Bad set	Italia Bernal		+0.9
12	6-6	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Parys Taylor	+0.9
13	6-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+0.8
14	6-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.7
15	7-8	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.5
16	7-9	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.5
17	8-9	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Italia Bernal	+0.5
18	8-10	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.5
19	9-10	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.5
20	10-10	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Annika Brooks		+0.9
21	10-11	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Attack err	Parys Taylor	blk Annika Brooks, Chelsea Butler	+0.6
22	10-12	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Shaelin White	+0.8
23	11-12	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.6
24	11-13	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.6
25	11-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Chelsea Butler	+0.7
26	12-14	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.5
27	12-15	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
28	13-15	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+0.5
29	13-16	CSFULL	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.5
30	13-17	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Bella Risling		+0.5
31	13-18	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Kaieva Christensen	+0.4
32	14-18	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.2
33	14-19	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Attack err	Bella Risling	blk Chloe Monson, Rachelle Reed	+0.3
34	15-19	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
35	15-20	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.2
36	15-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Sofia Shine	blk Chelsea Butler	+0.2
37	16-21	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.1
38	16-22	CSFULL	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
39	16-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Kaieva Christensen	+0.1
40	16-24	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Parys Taylor		+0.0
41	16-25	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Zariah Crosby		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.4
2	1-1	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Brenlin Garlitz	set Shaelin White	+0.3
3	2-1	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.4
4	2-2	CSFULL	SAMHOU×5	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.3
5	2-3	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×5	Attack err	Zariah Crosby		+0.4
6	2-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×5	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.4
7	2-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×5	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.3
8	2-6	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×5	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
9	3-6	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Sibley Oster	+0.2
10	4-6	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+0.3
11	4-7	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
12	4-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Zariah Crosby	blk Rachelle Reed	+0.3
13	5-8	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.2
14	5-9	CSFULL	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Lauren Pyle	+0.2
15	5-10	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.2
16	5-11	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.1
17	5-12	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.1
18	6-12	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.1
19	7-12	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.1
20	7-13	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
21	8-13	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Italia Bernal	+0.1
22	8-14	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.1
23	8-15	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.1
24	9-15	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.1
25	9-16	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.1
26	10-16	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Ava Pond	set Italia Bernal	+0.1
27	10-17	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Bella Wood	+0.1
28	11-17	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.0
29	11-18	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.1
30	12-18	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Arianna Ellis	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.0
31	12-19	CSFULL	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
32	12-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Arianna Ellis		+0.0
33	12-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.0
34	13-21	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.0
35	14-21	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Italia Bernal	+0.0
36	14-22	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
37	14-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+0.0
38	15-23	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Ava Pond	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.0
39	15-24	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.0
40	15-25	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass		+0.2
2	2-0	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+0.3
3	2-1	CSFULL	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
4	2-2	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Hannah Hass		+0.2
5	2-3	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.2
6	3-3	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
7	4-3	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe Monson	blk Ava Pond, Zariah Crosby	+0.2
8	4-4	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.2
9	4-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.2
10	5-5	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.2
11	5-6	CSFULL	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.2
12	5-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Shaelin White	+0.2
13	5-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Mia Feldhaus	+0.2
14	6-8	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Attack err	Bella Wood		+0.1
15	6-9	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
16	7-9	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.1
17	8-9	CSFULL	CSFULL	Bad set	Lauren Pyle		+0.2
18	8-10	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
19	9-10	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Hannah Hass	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.2
20	9-11	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.2
21	9-12	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Ava Pond	blk Faith Roulston, Chelsea Butler	+0.2
22	10-12	SAMHOU	CSFULL×4	Kill	Parys Taylor	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.1
23	11-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
24	12-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Ace	CSFULL server	aced Shaelin White	+0.3
25	13-12	CSFULL	CSFULL×4	Attack err	Chelsea Butler	blk Sofia Shine, Hannah Hass	+0.4
26	13-13	CSFULL	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
27	13-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Ava Pond		+0.3
28	13-15	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Sofia Shine		+0.3
29	13-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+0.2
30	14-16	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Mia Feldhaus	+0.2
31	15-16	CSFULL	CSFULL	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+0.3
32	15-17	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Serve err	CSFULL server		+0.2
33	15-18	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Sofia Shine	blk Faith Roulston	+0.2
34	16-18	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Italia Bernal	+0.2
35	17-18	CSFULL	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.3
36	17-19	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
37	17-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Shaelin White	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.3
38	18-20	SAMHOU	CSFULL×3	Kill	Sofia Shine	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.2
39	19-20	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Bella Wood		+0.4
40	20-20	CSFULL	CSFULL×3	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+0.5
41	20-21	CSFULL	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.4
42	20-22	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Parys Taylor	blk Annika Brooks, Rachelle Reed	+0.5
43	20-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Parys Taylor		+0.3
44	20-24	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
45	21-24	SAMHOU	CSFULL	Kill	Bella Risling	set Jaiden Mojica	+0.0
46	21-25	CSFULL	SAMHOU	Attack err	Jaiden Mojica		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.