FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeCUSA

Sam Houston def. McNeese 3–0

(25-13, 26-24, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MCNEES	13	24	16	0
SAMHOU	25	26	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SAMHOU above 50 · MCNEES below

Biggest swing: 3.1% to McNeese — set 2, MCNEES 24-23 SAMHOU. Kill by Ava Henry (set by Megan Grose). SAMHOU win probability 95% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MCNEES 6.6%93.4% SAMHOU

McNeese wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.9%

Sam Houston wins

3-0

51.4%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

11.4%

MCNEES break %: 37.4% vs this opp
SAMHOU break %: 49.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ava HenryKill+3.1%
Kill by Ava Henry (set by Megan Grose)
Set 2 · MCNEES 24-23 SAMHOU · MCNEES 5% → 8%
02
Ava HenryAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Ava Henry
Set 2 · MCNEES 24-25 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 94% → 97%
03
Kameron RectorKill+2.5%
Kill by Kameron Rector (set by Lauren Pyle)
Set 2 · MCNEES 24-24 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 92% → 94%
04
Gaby SantiagoAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Gaby Santiago
Set 2 · MCNEES 24-26 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 97% → 99%
05
Ava HenryKill+1.9%
Kill by Ava Henry (set by Sophia Tocmo)
Set 2 · MCNEES 23-23 SAMHOU · MCNEES 3% → 5%
06
SAMHOU serverAce+1.7%
Sam Houston ace on Team
Set 2 · MCNEES 21-21 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 93% → 95%
07
SAMHOU serverAce+1.7%
Sam Houston ace on Mary-Alice Dohmann
Set 2 · MCNEES 21-22 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 95% → 97%
08
SAMHOU serverAce+1.5%
Sam Houston ace on Sophia Tocmo
Set 2 · MCNEES 21-20 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 92% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

McNeeseaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Ava HenryMB	3	11	2	16	.563	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
1Gabbie MaldonadoOPP	3	4	2	14	.143	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	5
21Kayla WilsonOH	3	2	7	20	-.250	0	0	2	6	1	1	1	1.5	3.5
10Megan GroseS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
5Maleah MutterbackMB	2	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Carli BanksOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Harmony SolesMB	3	5	2	10	.300	0	2	0	1	0	0	2	1	8
14Gaby SantiagoOH	3	4	4	18	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4
9Harmony JacksonOH	3	2	3	13	-.077	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Sophia TocmoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	18	2	0	0	0	1
3Corynne HauslerS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
12Neal Grace BerryOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
7Bailey FoolkesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Mary-Alice DohmannOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	20	97	.103	27	3	5	40	7	2	6	5	53

Sam Houstonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Chloe MonsonOH	3	14	2	28	.429	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	16
20Bella WoodOH	3	7	3	19	.211	0	0	1	8	2	0	0	0	7
17Annika BrooksOH	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
12Rachelle ReedOH	3	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
8Chelsea ButlerMB	3	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
2Brenlin GarlitzS	3	0	0	2	.000	15	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
6Faith RoulstonMB	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	2	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
13Avery PruittDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	4
3Shaelin WhiteDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
15Lauren PyleS	3	0	0	1	.000	18	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
9Kameron RectorOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team totals		39	12	98	.276	37	7	7	40	3	2	10	7	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MCNEES · SAMHOU 8

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 3 MCNEESSAMHOU 8

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 6 MCNEESSAMHOU 7

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 MCNEESSAMHOU 7

Bars above the line = Sam Houston leads, below = McNeese leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

McNeese

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	40%4/10
2	50%6/12	33%3/9
3	42%5/12	40%4/10
4	31%5/16	29%2/7
5	29%4/14	29%2/7
6	33%4/12	67%8/12
All	41%30/74	42%23/55

Sam Houston

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	43%3/7
2	55%6/11	0%0/6
3	86%6/7	57%8/14
4	63%5/8	55%6/11
5	45%5/11	71%12/17
6	44%4/9	79%15/19
All	58%32/55	59%44/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	MCNEES-SAMHOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
2	1-1	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.6
3	2-1	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry		+0.9
4	2-2	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.6
5	3-2	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.7
6	3-3	MCNEES	SAMHOU×4	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.6
7	3-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Kayla Wilson	blk Faith Roulston	+0.8
8	3-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado		+0.7
9	3-6	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Gabbie Maldonado		+0.6
10	4-6	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Maleah Mutterback	set Megan Grose	+0.5
11	4-7	MCNEES	SAMHOU×8	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.4
12	4-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+0.5
13	4-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.4
14	4-10	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Lauren Pyle	+0.3
15	4-11	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.2
16	4-12	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Attack err	Harmony Soles		+0.1
17	4-13	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Kill	Bella Wood		+0.1
18	4-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×8	Attack err	Harmony Jackson	blk Rachelle Reed, Faith Roulston	+0.1
19	5-14	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.0
20	5-15	MCNEES	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
21	5-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+0.0
22	5-17	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+0.0
23	6-17	SAMHOU	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gaby Santiago	set Maleah Mutterback	+0.0
24	7-17	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Gaby Santiago	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
25	8-17	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Chelsea Butler	blk Ava Henry	+0.0
26	8-18	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+0.0
27	8-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.0
28	9-19	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
29	9-20	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.0
30	10-20	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.0
31	11-20	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+0.0
32	11-21	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Shaelin White	+0.0
33	11-22	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+0.0
34	12-22	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Megan Grose	+0.0
35	13-22	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Rachelle Reed		+0.0
36	13-23	MCNEES	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0
37	13-24	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.0
38	13-25	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gaby Santiago	set Megan Grose	+0.4
2	2-0	MCNEES	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.7
3	2-1	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.4
4	3-1	SAMHOU	MCNEES×4	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.5
5	4-1	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+0.8
6	5-1	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Bella Wood	+0.8
7	6-1	MCNEES	MCNEES×4	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.9
8	6-2	MCNEES	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
9	6-3	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Harmony Jackson		+0.7
10	6-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Harmony Jackson	blk Rachelle Reed, Annika Brooks	+0.7
11	7-4	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Megan Grose	+0.7
12	7-5	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
13	8-5	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Attack err	Faith Roulston	blk Kayla Wilson	+0.7
14	8-6	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Lauren Pyle	+0.6
15	8-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Gaby Santiago		+0.7
16	9-7	SAMHOU	MCNEES×6	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.7
17	10-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.9
18	11-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Attack err	Bella Wood	blk Ava Henry, Gabbie Maldonado	+1.0
19	12-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Team	+1.0
20	13-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+1.0
21	14-7	MCNEES	MCNEES×6	Kill	Ava Henry	set Corynne Hausler	+0.9
22	14-8	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Lauren Pyle	+0.4
23	14-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Ava Henry		+0.7
24	15-9	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gaby Santiago	set Corynne Hausler	+0.8
25	15-10	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+0.5
26	16-10	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.8
27	16-11	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
28	17-11	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.8
29	17-12	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
30	18-12	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Jackson	set Megan Grose	+0.8
31	18-13	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.4
32	18-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.8
33	19-14	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.9
34	20-14	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Faith Roulston		+0.9
35	20-15	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.4
36	20-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Corynne Hausler	+0.7
37	21-16	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.9
38	21-17	MCNEES	SAMHOU×7	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+0.5
39	21-18	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Attack err	Gaby Santiago		+0.9
40	21-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+1.2
41	21-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Sophia Tocmo	+1.5
42	21-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Team	+1.7
43	21-22	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Mary-Alice Dohmann	+1.7
44	21-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+1.4
45	22-23	SAMHOU	MCNEES×3	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.8
46	23-23	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Ava Henry	set Sophia Tocmo	+1.9
47	24-23	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+3.1
48	24-24	MCNEES	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Lauren Pyle	+2.5
49	24-25	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Ava Henry		+2.6
50	24-26	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Gaby Santiago		+2.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MCNEES	MCNEES	Bad set	Brenlin Garlitz		+0.3
2	1-1	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
3	2-1	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.2
4	2-2	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
5	3-2	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Kayla Wilson	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.2
6	3-3	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.2
7	4-3	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.2
8	4-4	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.2
9	4-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Sophia Tocmo	+0.2
10	5-5	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Harmony Soles	set Corynne Hausler	+0.2
11	6-5	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Wood		+0.3
12	6-6	MCNEES	SAMHOU×7	Attack err	Gaby Santiago	blk Rachelle Reed, Faith Roulston	+0.2
13	6-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.3
14	6-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Attack err	Harmony Soles	blk Chelsea Butler	+0.2
15	6-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.2
16	6-10	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Lauren Pyle	+0.2
17	6-11	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Kill	Bella Wood	set Avery Pruitt	+0.1
18	6-12	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×7	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Kayla Wilson	+0.1
19	7-12	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Corynne Hausler	+0.1
20	8-12	MCNEES	MCNEES	Ace	MCNEES server	aced Bella Wood	+0.1
21	8-13	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.1
22	9-13	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+0.1
23	10-13	MCNEES	MCNEES	Attack err	Annika Brooks		+0.2
24	10-14	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.1
25	11-14	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Attack err	Bella Wood		+0.1
26	11-15	MCNEES	SAMHOU×6	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.1
27	11-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Attack err	Kayla Wilson	blk Annika Brooks, Rachelle Reed	+0.1
28	11-17	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Attack err	Kayla Wilson		+0.1
29	11-18	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Bad set	Megan Grose		+0.1
30	11-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.0
31	11-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×6	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Team	+0.0
32	12-20	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Ava Henry	set Megan Grose	+0.0
33	12-21	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.0
34	13-21	SAMHOU	MCNEES×3	Kill	Neal Grace Berry	set Sophia Tocmo	+0.0
35	14-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Chloe Monson	blk Harmony Soles, Gabbie Maldonado	+0.0
36	15-21	MCNEES	MCNEES×3	Attack err	Faith Roulston	blk Kayla Wilson, Harmony Soles	+0.0
37	15-22	MCNEES	SAMHOU×3	Bad set	Corynne Hausler		+0.0
38	15-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Bella Wood	set Shaelin White	+0.0
39	15-24	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Gaby Santiago	+0.0
40	16-24	SAMHOU	MCNEES	Kill	Gabbie Maldonado	set Corynne Hausler	+0.0
41	16-25	MCNEES	SAMHOU	Serve err	MCNEES server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, McNeese first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.