FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayCUSA

0:3

HomeWCC

Denver def. Sam Houston 3–0

(25-23, 25-22, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SAMHOU	23	22	24	0
DENVER	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DENVER above 50 · SAMHOU below

Biggest swing: 9.9% to Denver — set 1, SAMHOU 23-24 DENVER. Attack error by Bella Wood. DENVER win probability 52% → 61%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SAMHOU 46.5%53.5% DENVER

Sam Houston wins

3-0

11.1%

3-1

17.3%

3-2

18.1%

Denver wins

3-0

14.0%

3-1

20.2%

3-2

19.3%

SAMHOU break %: 42.7% vs this opp
DENVER break %: 43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Bella WoodAttack error+9.9%
Attack error by Bella Wood
Set 1 · SAMHOU 23-24 DENVER · DENVER 52% → 61%
02
Alicia ThibodeauKill+9.8%
Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Lily Van Hal)
Set 1 · SAMHOU 23-25 DENVER · DENVER 61% → 71%
03
DENVER serverAce+7.6%
Denver ace on Shaelin White
Set 1 · SAMHOU 23-23 DENVER · DENVER 44% → 52%
04
Bella WoodAttack error+6.2%
Bella Wood stuffed by Katelyn Landis & Lily Van Hal
Set 3 · SAMHOU 24-26 DENVER · DENVER 94% → 100%
05
Annika BrooksAttack error+6.1%
Attack error by Annika Brooks
Set 2 · SAMHOU 21-23 DENVER · DENVER 77% → 83%
06
SAMHOU serverAce+5.5%
Sam Houston ace on Madison Winkler
Set 2 · SAMHOU 21-21 DENVER · SAMHOU 23% → 28%
07
Chelsea ButlerAttack error+4.9%
Chelsea Butler stuffed by Katelyn Landis & Alicia Thibodeau
Set 2 · SAMHOU 19-21 DENVER · DENVER 76% → 80%
08
Chloe MonsonAttack error+4.8%
Attack error by Chloe Monson
Set 2 · SAMHOU 21-22 DENVER · DENVER 72% → 77%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Sam Houstonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Chloe MonsonOH	3	16	8	46	.174	1	0	1	8	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
8Chelsea ButlerMB	3	8	4	18	.222	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	11
2Brenlin GarlitzS	3	2	1	3	.333	19	3	3	11	0	0	0	0	5
12Rachelle ReedOH	3	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
17Annika BrooksOH	3	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	4
9Kameron RectorOH	2	6	1	17	.294	0	1	0	6	3	0	1	0.5	7.5
20Bella WoodOH	3	8	4	20	.200	0	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	10
15Lauren PyleS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
3Shaelin WhiteDS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	1	14	3	0	0	0	0
13Avery PruittDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Faith RoulstonMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		44	21	123	.187	39	6	5	53	6	2	14	9	69

Denverhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Katelyn LandisMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
19Alicia ThibodeauOH	3	5	4	30	.033	0	1	0	6	0	2	1	7
18Jamia JohnsonOH	3	7	3	27	.148	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7
7Elise HartMB	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
13Lily Van HalS	3	0	0	1	.000	18	2	0	9	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Quinlan JonesOH	1	1	4	11	-.273	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
9Hailey GoebelOH	3	13	2	19	.579	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13
2Romi ChlebecekOH	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
1Madison WinklerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	0	16	3	0	0	2
24Kayla PatelOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	10	1	0	0	1
10Ilayda ErenS	3	0	0	0	–	18	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
4Emersen WergerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	16	122	.213	41	6	3	51	6	10	5	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 SAMHOU · DENVER 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 SAMHOUDENVER 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 SAMHOUDENVER 4

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 SAMHOUDENVER 4

Bars above the line = Denver leads, below = Sam Houston leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Sam Houston

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	56%9/16
2	40%8/20	53%9/17
3	70%7/10	38%5/13
4	47%7/15	30%3/10
5	45%5/11	13%1/8
6	71%5/7	29%2/7
All	54%40/74	41%29/71

Denver

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	33%3/9
2	44%8/18	47%7/15
3	70%7/10	50%7/14
4	64%7/11	30%3/10
5	88%7/8	50%7/14
6	56%5/9	58%7/12
All	59%42/71	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

145 rallies

Rally log

#	SAMHOU-DENVER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.5
2	2-0	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Quinlan Jones		+2.5
3	3-0	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Team	+2.4
4	3-1	SAMHOU	DENVER	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+1.7
5	4-1	DENVER	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.9
6	5-1	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.3
7	6-1	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+2.1
8	7-1	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.9
9	7-2	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Lily Van Hal	+1.2
10	8-2	DENVER	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Quinlan Jones		+1.4
11	9-2	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Brenlin Garlitz	set Ilayda Eren	+1.6
12	10-2	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Goebel	blk Rachelle Reed, Annika Brooks	+1.3
13	10-3	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+0.7
14	10-4	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+1.2
15	11-4	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.2
16	11-5	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+0.9
17	11-6	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+1.5
18	12-6	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+1.4
19	12-7	SAMHOU	DENVER	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+1.1
20	13-7	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Lauren Pyle	+1.4
21	14-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Chloe Monson	+1.5
22	14-8	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Madison Winkler	+0.8
23	14-9	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Quinlan Jones	set Lily Van Hal	+1.4
24	15-9	DENVER	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Quinlan Jones		+1.4
25	16-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Elise Hart	blk Chelsea Butler	+1.4
26	17-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Jamia Johnson	+1.0
27	17-10	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.4
28	18-10	DENVER	SAMHOU	Attack err	Quinlan Jones		+0.7
29	18-11	SAMHOU	DENVER×3	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Madison Winkler	+0.4
30	18-12	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Annika Brooks	blk Katelyn Landis, Romi Chlebecek	+0.8
31	18-13	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Romi Chlebecek		+1.2
32	19-13	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.3
33	19-14	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
34	20-14	DENVER	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.2
35	21-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+0.9
36	22-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Hailey Goebel	blk Rachelle Reed, Chloe Monson	+0.5
37	22-15	SAMHOU	DENVER×5	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+0.1
38	22-16	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+0.3
39	22-17	DENVER	DENVER×5	Ace	DENVER server	aced Kameron Rector	+0.6
40	22-18	DENVER	DENVER×5	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+1.0
41	22-19	DENVER	DENVER×5	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+1.8
42	23-19	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+2.3
43	23-20	SAMHOU	DENVER×6	Attack err	Bella Wood		+1.1
44	23-21	DENVER	DENVER×6	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+2.7
45	23-22	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+4.7
46	23-23	DENVER	DENVER×6	Ace	DENVER server	aced Shaelin White	+7.6
47	23-24	DENVER	DENVER×6	Attack err	Bella Wood		+9.9
48	23-25	DENVER	DENVER×6	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Lily Van Hal	+9.8
Set 2
1	0-1	DENVER	DENVER	Ace	DENVER server	aced Shaelin White	+2.4
2	1-1	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.8
3	1-2	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Ilayda Eren	+1.8
4	1-3	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+2.4
5	2-3	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Brenlin Garlitz		+1.8
6	2-4	SAMHOU	DENVER	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+1.8
7	2-5	DENVER	DENVER	Ace	DENVER server	aced Kameron Rector	+2.3
8	3-5	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.7
9	3-6	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.8
10	3-7	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Bella Wood		+2.2
11	4-7	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+1.5
12	4-8	SAMHOU	DENVER	Attack err	Kameron Rector		+1.7
13	5-8	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Lauren Pyle	+1.5
14	5-9	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+1.7
15	6-9	DENVER	SAMHOU	Serve err	DENVER server		+1.5
16	7-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Madison Winkler	+2.3
17	7-10	SAMHOU	DENVER	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.0
18	8-10	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Shaelin White	+1.8
19	8-11	SAMHOU	DENVER×4	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+2.0
20	8-12	DENVER	DENVER×4	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+2.4
21	8-13	DENVER	DENVER×4	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+2.1
22	8-14	DENVER	DENVER×4	Attack err	Brenlin Garlitz		+1.7
23	9-14	DENVER	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.0
24	10-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau	blk Rachelle Reed, Annika Brooks	+1.7
25	11-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Elise Hart	+2.1
26	11-15	SAMHOU	DENVER	Attack err	Annika Brooks	blk Alicia Thibodeau, Elise Hart	+1.9
27	12-15	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+1.6
28	12-16	SAMHOU	DENVER	Bad set	Lauren Pyle		+2.0
29	13-16	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+1.6
30	14-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Jamia Johnson	blk Rachelle Reed, Kameron Rector	+2.7
31	14-17	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Lily Van Hal	+2.5
32	15-17	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+2.1
33	16-17	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Avery Pruitt	+3.4
34	16-18	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Lily Van Hal	+3.0
35	16-19	DENVER	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Madison Winkler	+3.5
36	17-19	DENVER	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	DENVER server		+2.2
37	18-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Madison Winkler	+3.7
38	19-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Katelyn Landis	blk Chelsea Butler	+4.6
39	19-20	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+3.8
40	19-21	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Chelsea Butler	blk Katelyn Landis, Alicia Thibodeau	+4.9
41	20-21	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+3.1
42	21-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Madison Winkler	+5.5
43	21-22	SAMHOU	DENVER×3	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+4.8
44	21-23	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Annika Brooks		+6.1
45	21-24	DENVER	DENVER×3	Ace	DENVER server	aced Kameron Rector	+4.4
46	22-24	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.3
47	22-25	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Alicia Thibodeau	set Madison Winkler	+3.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SAMHOU	DENVER	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+1.2
2	0-2	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+1.5
3	1-2	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.1
4	2-2	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau		+1.6
5	2-3	SAMHOU	DENVER×4	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+1.2
6	2-4	DENVER	DENVER×4	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Madison Winkler	+1.6
7	2-5	DENVER	DENVER×4	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+1.5
8	2-6	DENVER	DENVER×4	Bad set	Brenlin Garlitz		+1.4
9	3-6	DENVER	SAMHOU	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau	blk Chelsea Butler, Annika Brooks	+1.0
10	4-6	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.5
11	4-7	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.2
12	4-8	DENVER	DENVER	Ace	DENVER server	aced Shaelin White	+1.5
13	5-8	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.0
14	5-9	SAMHOU	DENVER×3	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+1.1
15	5-10	DENVER	DENVER×3	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Lily Van Hal	+1.3
16	5-11	DENVER	DENVER×3	Attack err	Chloe Monson	blk Elise Hart, Romi Chlebecek	+1.1
17	6-11	DENVER	SAMHOU	Attack err	Jamia Johnson		+0.7
18	6-12	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
19	7-12	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.7
20	7-13	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
21	8-13	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Lauren Pyle	+0.6
22	8-14	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Katelyn Landis	set Ilayda Eren	+0.8
23	9-14	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.6
24	10-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Team	+1.1
25	10-15	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+1.0
26	10-16	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+1.1
27	11-16	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.6
28	11-17	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
29	12-17	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.5
30	12-18	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.8
31	13-18	DENVER	SAMHOU	Serve err	DENVER server		+0.5
32	13-19	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Jamia Johnson	set Lily Van Hal	+0.7
33	14-19	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Shaelin White	+0.5
34	14-20	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+0.7
35	15-20	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+0.4
36	16-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Ilayda Eren	+0.9
37	16-21	SAMHOU	DENVER	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+1.0
38	17-21	DENVER	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+0.6
39	18-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+1.2
40	19-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Attack err	Alicia Thibodeau	blk Annika Brooks, Chelsea Butler	+1.9
41	20-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×4	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Kayla Patel	+2.7
42	20-22	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Hailey Goebel	set Ilayda Eren	+2.7
43	21-22	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+2.1
44	21-23	SAMHOU	DENVER	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+3.0
45	22-23	DENVER	SAMHOU	Attack err	Jamia Johnson		+2.2
46	23-23	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Romi Chlebecek	blk Rachelle Reed, Faith Roulston	+4.7
47	23-24	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Elise Hart	set Lily Van Hal	+4.7
48	24-24	DENVER	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+4.7
49	24-25	SAMHOU	DENVER	Kill	Romi Chlebecek	set Lily Van Hal	+4.7
50	24-26	DENVER	DENVER	Attack err	Bella Wood	blk Katelyn Landis, Lily Van Hal	+6.2

Score shown after each rally, Sam Houston first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.