The Citadel at Northwestern St.

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
CITDEL	17	17	22	0
NW ST	25	25	24	2

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

NW ST above 50 · CITDEL below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Northwestern St. — set 3, CITDEL 22-24 NW ST. Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad). NW ST win probability 95% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CITDEL 35.9%64.1% NW ST

The Citadel wins

3-0

7.4%

3-1

12.9%

3-2

15.6%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

19.5%

3-1

24.6%

3-2

20.0%

CITDEL break %: 42.9% vs this opp
NW ST break %: 45.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Olivia NziokiKill+2.6%
Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad)
Set 3 · CITDEL 22-24 NW ST · NW ST 95% → 98%
02
Samantha WeiseAttack error+2.6%
Samantha Weise stuffed by Amber Craig & Kenadii Winfrey
Set 2 · CITDEL 11-12 NW ST · NW ST 78% → 81%
03
Jordyn SimsAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Jordyn Sims
Set 2 · CITDEL 11-11 NW ST · NW ST 76% → 78%
04
Elizabeth MuguruzaAttack error+2.5%
Elizabeth Muguruza stuffed by Samantha Weise & Jordyn Sims
Set 2 · CITDEL 10-8 NW ST · CITDEL 23% → 26%
05
Amber CraigKill+2.5%
Kill by Amber Craig (set by Emmarie Mcfarland)
Set 2 · CITDEL 11-13 NW ST · NW ST 81% → 83%
06
Amber CraigAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Amber Craig
Set 2 · CITDEL 11-8 NW ST · CITDEL 26% → 29%
07
Gillian grace WolfAttack error+2.5%
Gillian grace Wolf stuffed by Samantha Weise & Jordyn Sims
Set 2 · CITDEL 13-14 NW ST · CITDEL 16% → 18%
08
Samantha WeiseAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Samantha Weise
Set 2 · CITDEL 13-16 NW ST · NW ST 84% → 86%

Official NCAA box

Box score

The Citadelaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Luci LippelgoosMB	3	10	2	16	.500	0	2	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
2Cameron ReeseOH	3	8	4	22	.182	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	8
17Jordyn SimsOH	3	3	5	15	-.133	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
21Samantha WeiseMB	3	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4
1Allie DavisonS	3	1	0	4	.250	29	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	2
10Jess MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
18Emma PastusicOH	3	5	6	18	-.056	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
7Rachel ReiningerOH	3	2	3	17	-.059	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
9Megan StoneL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
23Elizabeth MillerMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Emerson HillL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0	0
6Greta PleussS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Gwen BerryOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	0	0
3Mia WatsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Sammie SabraOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	23	102	.098	30	3	7	32	5	2	6	5	57

Northwestern St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	9	2	12	.583	2	0	0	0	0	4	2	11
17Elsie SanchezOH	3	9	4	22	.227	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	6	2	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
5Gillian grace WolfOH	3	4	2	12	.167	1	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
11Jade LongladS	3	2	2	5	.000	26	3	1	5	0	0	0	5
16Anna claire HebertS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
6Amber CraigOH	3	4	1	16	.188	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	6.5
1Julia WhitfieldMB	3	4	1	10	.300	2	0	1	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
9Elizabeth MuguruzaOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	1
7Harper CauleyL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
2Emmarie McfarlandL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	16	2	0	0	0
26Addison GuyMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Riley SchubertOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
14Ana GjorgjievskaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Camila TorquatiS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Melis OzipekOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	89	.258	36	5	6	39	3	16	8	73

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CITDEL · NW ST 8

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 CITDELNW ST 8

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 CITDELNW ST 6

Set 3*

22-24

Longest run 3 CITDELNW ST 5

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = The Citadel leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	CITDEL-NW ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Cameron Reese		+2.2
2	1-1	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.8
3	1-2	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
4	2-2	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Allie Davison	+1.8
5	2-3	CITDEL	NW ST×4	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
6	2-4	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+2.2
7	2-5	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos	blk Elsie Sanchez, Kenadii Winfrey	+2.1
8	2-6	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Emerson Hill		+1.9
9	3-6	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.4
10	3-7	CITDEL	NW ST×8	Attack err	Emma Pastusic	set Emerson Hill	+1.5
11	3-8	NW ST	NW ST×8	Attack err	Emma Pastusic		+1.7
12	3-9	NW ST	NW ST×8	Ace	NW ST server	aced Emerson Hill	+1.4
13	3-10	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.1
14	3-11	NW ST	NW ST×8	Ace	NW ST server	aced Emerson Hill	+0.9
15	3-12	NW ST	NW ST×8	Ace	NW ST server	aced Gwen Berry	+0.6
16	3-13	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Emmarie Mcfarland	+0.4
17	3-14	NW ST	NW ST×8	Kill	Elsie Sanchez		+0.3
18	4-14	NW ST	CITDEL	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
19	5-14	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.3
20	5-15	CITDEL	NW ST	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.3
21	5-16	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Allie Davison	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Emma Pastusic	+0.2
22	6-16	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Emma Pastusic	set Allie Davison	+0.1
23	7-16	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.2
24	7-17	CITDEL	NW ST	Attack err	Emma Pastusic	set Allie Davison	+0.2
25	8-17	NW ST	CITDEL×4	Kill	Emma Pastusic	set Allie Davison	+0.1
26	9-17	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki	blk Samantha Weise	+0.3
27	10-17	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+0.4
28	11-17	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+0.7
29	11-18	CITDEL	NW ST	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.7
30	12-18	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims		+0.5
31	12-19	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Anna claire Hebert	+0.7
32	13-19	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.4
33	13-20	CITDEL	NW ST	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.6
34	13-21	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Cameron Reese		+0.4
35	14-21	NW ST	CITDEL	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	set Emmarie Mcfarland	+0.2
36	14-22	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Anna claire Hebert	+0.3
37	14-23	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Emma Pastusic	blk Kenadii Winfrey, Amber Craig	+0.1
38	15-23	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.0
39	15-24	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
40	16-24	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Emma Pastusic	set Allie Davison	+0.0
41	17-24	CITDEL	CITDEL	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Valerie Brown	+0.0
42	17-25	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CITDEL	NW ST×3	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+1.5
2	0-2	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian grace Wolf	set Kenadii Winfrey	+1.9
3	0-3	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian grace Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
4	1-3	NW ST	CITDEL	Serve err	NW ST server		+1.3
5	1-4	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+1.4
6	2-4	NW ST	CITDEL×4	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.4
7	3-4	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Attack err	Gillian grace Wolf	blk Luci Lippelgoos, Jordyn Sims	+1.9
8	4-4	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Attack err	Jade Longlad		+2.1
9	5-4	CITDEL	CITDEL×4	Kill	Allie Davison		+2.2
10	5-5	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Julia Whitfield	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
11	6-5	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese		+1.8
12	6-6	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Jade Longlad	set Gillian grace Wolf	+1.8
13	7-6	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+1.9
14	7-7	CITDEL	NW ST	Serve err	CITDEL server		+1.8
15	8-7	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Emma Pastusic		+1.9
16	8-8	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+1.9
17	9-8	NW ST	CITDEL×3	Serve err	NW ST server		+2.0
18	10-8	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza	blk Samantha Weise, Jordyn Sims	+2.5
19	11-8	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Attack err	Amber Craig		+2.5
20	11-9	CITDEL	NW ST×6	Attack err	Emma Pastusic	set Valerie Brown	+1.8
21	11-10	NW ST	NW ST×6	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+2.5
22	11-11	NW ST	NW ST×6	Attack err	Jordyn Sims		+2.6
23	11-12	NW ST	NW ST×6	Attack err	Samantha Weise	blk Amber Craig, Kenadii Winfrey	+2.6
24	11-13	NW ST	NW ST×6	Kill	Amber Craig	set Emmarie Mcfarland	+2.5
25	11-14	NW ST	NW ST×6	Ace	NW ST server	aced TEAM	+2.3
26	12-14	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Emma Pastusic	set Allie Davison	+1.7
27	13-14	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Gillian grace Wolf	blk Samantha Weise, Jordyn Sims	+2.5
28	13-15	CITDEL	NW ST×4	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+2.2
29	13-16	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Samantha Weise		+2.5
30	13-17	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Cameron Reese	blk Amber Craig, Julia Whitfield	+2.1
31	13-18	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Amber Craig	set Kenadii Winfrey	+1.6
32	14-18	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Jordyn Sims	set Allie Davison	+0.9
33	15-18	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Julia Whitfield		+1.7
34	15-19	CITDEL	NW ST×3	Kill	Julia Whitfield	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
35	15-20	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Jordyn Sims	blk Julia Whitfield, Gillian grace Wolf	+1.6
36	15-21	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian grace Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
37	16-21	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.4
38	16-22	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Jade Longlad	set Elizabeth Muguruza	+0.7
39	17-22	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.3
40	17-23	CITDEL	NW ST×3	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.6
41	17-24	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.3
42	17-25	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	NW ST server	aced TEAM	+1.1
2	1-1	NW ST	CITDEL	Serve err	NW ST server		+0.9
3	1-2	CITDEL	NW ST	Attack err	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.9
4	2-2	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+0.9
5	3-2	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.2
6	3-3	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.9
7	4-3	NW ST	CITDEL	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
8	5-3	CITDEL	CITDEL	Attack err	Jade Longlad	blk Rachel Reininger	+1.3
9	5-4	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Julia Whitfield	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
10	6-4	NW ST	CITDEL×3	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+1.1
11	7-4	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Emmarie Mcfarland	+1.3
12	8-4	CITDEL	CITDEL×3	Ace	CITDEL server	aced Emmarie Mcfarland	+1.3
13	8-5	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Julia Whitfield	+0.9
14	9-5	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Samantha Weise	set Allie Davison	+1.0
15	10-5	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Samantha Weise		+1.2
16	10-6	CITDEL	NW ST×4	Serve err	CITDEL server		+0.8
17	10-7	NW ST	NW ST×4	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.1
18	10-8	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Jordyn Sims	blk Amber Craig, Olivia Nzioki	+1.3
19	10-9	NW ST	NW ST×4	Attack err	Jordyn Sims		+1.4
20	11-9	NW ST	CITDEL	Serve err	NW ST server		+1.2
21	11-10	CITDEL	NW ST	Attack err	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.1
22	12-10	NW ST	CITDEL	Serve err	NW ST server		+1.3
23	13-10	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Megan Stone	set Emerson Hill	+1.5
24	13-11	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.1
25	14-11	NW ST	CITDEL	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.3
26	15-11	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Cameron Reese	set Allie Davison	+1.5
27	15-12	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
28	15-13	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Julia Whitfield	+1.4
29	16-13	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+1.4
30	17-13	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+1.5
31	17-14	CITDEL	NW ST×5	Serve err	CITDEL server		+1.0
32	17-15	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.5
33	17-16	NW ST	NW ST×5	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+1.8
34	17-17	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+2.0
35	17-18	NW ST	NW ST×5	Kill	Julia Whitfield		+2.0
36	18-18	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Luci Lippelgoos	set Allie Davison	+1.6
37	19-18	CITDEL	CITDEL	Kill	Rachel Reininger		+2.3
38	19-19	CITDEL	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.8
39	19-20	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Gillian grace Wolf		+2.4
40	19-21	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Rachel Reininger		+2.3
41	20-21	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Elizabeth Miller	set Allie Davison	+1.6
42	20-22	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Miller	set Allie Davison	+2.0
43	21-22	NW ST	CITDEL	Kill	Rachel Reininger	set Allie Davison	+1.6
44	21-23	CITDEL	NW ST	Attack err	Jordyn Sims	blk Gillian grace Wolf, Julia Whitfield	+2.3
45	22-23	NW ST	CITDEL	Serve err	NW ST server		+1.7
46	22-24	CITDEL	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+2.6

Score shown after each rally, The Citadel first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.