FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayASUN

0:3

HomeSOCON

Furman def. Stetson 3–0

(26-24, 25-21, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STETSN	24	21	23	0
FURMAN	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FURMAN above 50 · STETSN below

Biggest swing: 4.1% to Furman — set 1, STETSN 23-24 FURMAN. Kill by Ashtan Dodson (set by Emily Navarro). FURMAN win probability 87% → 91%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STETSN 10.4%89.6% FURMAN

Stetson wins

3-0

1.4%

3-1

3.2%

3-2

5.8%

Furman wins

3-0

43.7%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.3%

STETSN break %: 40.5% vs this opp
FURMAN break %: 50.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ashtan DodsonKill+4.1%
Kill by Ashtan Dodson (set by Emily Navarro)
Set 1 · STETSN 23-24 FURMAN · FURMAN 87% → 91%
02
Andrea Diaz DominguezKill+4.1%
Kill by Andrea Diaz Dominguez (set by Maia Keely Pou)
Set 1 · STETSN 24-24 FURMAN · STETSN 9% → 13%
03
Kacie MooreKill+4.1%
Kill by Kacie Moore (set by Emily Navarro)
Set 1 · STETSN 24-25 FURMAN · FURMAN 87% → 91%
04
Ashtan DodsonKill+4.0%
Kill by Ashtan Dodson (set by Emily Navarro)
Set 1 · STETSN 24-26 FURMAN · FURMAN 91% → 95%
05
Jannelize PerezKill+3.3%
Kill by Jannelize Perez (set by Emily Navarro)
Set 1 · STETSN 21-20 FURMAN · STETSN 13% → 16%
06
Andrea Diaz DominguezKill+3.2%
Kill by Andrea Diaz Dominguez (set by Vitoria Stedile)
Set 1 · STETSN 23-23 FURMAN · STETSN 10% → 13%
07
Maia Keely PouBad set+3.2%
Bad set by Maia Keely Pou
Set 1 · STETSN 21-22 FURMAN · FURMAN 86% → 90%
08
Amber WatsonKill+3.1%
Kill by Amber Watson (set by Emily Navarro)
Set 1 · STETSN 22-23 FURMAN · FURMAN 87% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stetsonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Andrea Diaz DominguezOH	3	9	3	23	.261	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	0	9
7Vanessa ShevchenkoS	3	3	3	13	.000	13	1	1	5	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
21Sofia TorcelloMB	3	2	0	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	4
9Soraya TestonOH	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Maia Keely PouS	3	0	0	3	.000	12	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Kayla BalfourMB	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
17Lelia FitzMB	3	7	4	17	.176	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	9
2Jannelize PerezL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	1
4Vitoria StedileL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
10Karsu BayraktarOH	2	2	2	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
23Zuzanna BuryOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Larissa HiemerS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33Maria OzaetaOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
5Sophie JonesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	16	95	.147	29	1	4	41	5	2	10	7	68

Furmanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Izzy CastelloeMB	3	13	3	24	.417	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
15Amber WatsonOH	3	11	5	24	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
13Ashtan DodsonOH	3	8	5	24	.125	1	0	1	9	0	0	4	2	10
1Kacie MooreMB	3	6	6	17	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
14Rebekah BuchholzMB	3	2	1	7	.143	1	0	4	1	0	2	3	3.5	5.5
7Emily NavarroS	3	2	0	7	.286	26	0	3	7	0	0	0	0	2
6Brooke SchefflerOPP	3	0	0	4	.000	0	4	3	4	0	0	0	0	4
2Kennedy SeekfordL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
9Campbell WoodsOPP	2	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
4Morgan BaldridgeS	2	1	0	2	.500	10	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
10Tiffany HelmerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	21	119	.218	44	5	13	40	1	2	10	7	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 STETSN · FURMAN 7

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 STETSNFURMAN 7

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 6 STETSNFURMAN 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 6 STETSNFURMAN 6

Bars above the line = Furman leads, below = Stetson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stetson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	54%7/13
2	39%7/18	22%2/9
3	50%7/14	30%3/10
4	67%6/9	50%7/14
5	60%6/10	45%5/11
6	42%5/12	50%6/12
All	51%38/75	43%30/69

Furman

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	54%7/13
2	88%7/8	67%14/21
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	38%6/16	50%6/12
5	50%6/12	25%2/8
6	43%6/14	40%4/10
All	57%39/69	49%37/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

144 rallies

Rally log

#	STETSN-FURMAN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FURMAN	STETSN	Attack err	Amber Watson	blk Soraya Teston, Kayla Balfour	+1.0
2	1-1	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.9
3	2-1	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+1.0
4	2-2	STETSN	FURMAN	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.9
5	2-3	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore		+1.0
6	3-3	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.9
7	3-4	STETSN	FURMAN	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.9
8	4-4	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.0
9	4-5	STETSN	FURMAN	Attack err	Lelia Fitz	blk Kacie Moore, Ashtan Dodson	+0.9
10	4-6	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+1.0
11	5-6	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.9
12	5-7	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+0.8
13	6-7	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.9
14	7-7	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+1.3
15	7-8	STETSN	FURMAN	Attack err	Soraya Teston		+1.0
16	7-9	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+1.1
17	8-9	FURMAN	STETSN	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe	blk Vanessa Shevchenko, Kayla Balfour	+1.0
18	9-9	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Maia Keely Pou	+1.4
19	9-10	STETSN	FURMAN×7	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+1.1
20	9-11	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Attack err	Kayla Balfour	blk Rebekah Buchholz	+1.2
21	9-12	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Ace	FURMAN server	aced Jannelize Perez	+1.0
22	9-13	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Ace	FURMAN server	aced Maria Ozaeta	+0.8
23	9-14	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Ace	FURMAN server	aced Maria Ozaeta	+0.6
24	9-15	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Bad set	Kayla Balfour		+0.5
25	9-16	FURMAN	FURMAN×7	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Emily Navarro	+0.3
26	10-16	FURMAN	STETSN	Attack err	Izzy Castelloe		+0.2
27	11-16	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson	blk Vanessa Shevchenko, Sofia Torcello	+0.4
28	11-17	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.4
29	12-17	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.3
30	13-17	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Kacie Moore		+0.5
31	13-18	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Emily Navarro	+0.6
32	14-18	FURMAN	STETSN×3	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.5
33	15-18	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.8
34	16-18	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.2
35	16-19	STETSN	FURMAN	Attack err	Soraya Teston		+1.1
36	17-19	FURMAN	STETSN×3	Serve err	FURMAN server		+1.0
37	18-19	STETSN	STETSN×3	Bad set	Emily Navarro		+1.8
38	19-19	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+2.4
39	19-20	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Emily Navarro		+2.0
40	20-20	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+2.2
41	21-20	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Jannelize Perez	set Emily Navarro	+3.3
42	21-21	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Emily Navarro	set Tiffany Helmer	+2.5
43	21-22	FURMAN	FURMAN	Bad set	Maia Keely Pou		+3.2
44	22-22	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+2.8
45	22-23	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+3.1
46	23-23	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vitoria Stedile	+3.2
47	23-24	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Emily Navarro	+4.1
48	24-24	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Maia Keely Pou	+4.1
49	24-25	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Emily Navarro	+4.1
50	24-26	FURMAN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Emily Navarro	+4.0
Set 2
1	0-1	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.5
2	1-1	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.6
3	1-2	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.6
4	2-2	FURMAN	STETSN×3	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.6
5	3-2	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Kacie Moore		+0.8
6	4-2	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Zuzanna Bury	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.9
7	4-3	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.7
8	5-3	FURMAN	STETSN×6	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson		+0.8
9	6-3	STETSN	STETSN×6	Attack err	Kacie Moore		+1.1
10	7-3	STETSN	STETSN×6	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vitoria Stedile	+1.1
11	8-3	STETSN	STETSN×6	Ace	STETSN server	aced Tiffany Helmer	+1.1
12	9-3	STETSN	STETSN×6	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson	blk Lelia Fitz, Sofia Torcello	+1.1
13	10-3	STETSN	STETSN×6	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.0
14	10-4	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Emily Navarro	+0.6
15	11-4	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.9
16	11-5	STETSN	FURMAN	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.6
17	12-5	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.9
18	13-5	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.9
19	13-6	STETSN	FURMAN×4	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko		+0.5
20	13-7	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Attack err	Soraya Teston		+0.8
21	13-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Amber Watson	set Rebekah Buchholz	+0.9
22	13-9	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Kennedy Seekford	+1.0
23	14-9	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+1.1
24	14-10	STETSN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.8
25	14-11	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Ace	FURMAN server	aced Soraya Teston	+1.1
26	14-12	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko		+1.2
27	14-13	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Bad set	Maia Keely Pou		+1.2
28	15-13	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Maia Keely Pou	+1.2
29	15-14	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+1.1
30	16-14	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+1.3
31	16-15	STETSN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+1.1
32	16-16	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Campbell Woods	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.4
33	16-17	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Kennedy Seekford	+1.3
34	16-18	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.2
35	17-18	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+1.0
36	18-18	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Kacie Moore	blk Lelia Fitz	+1.5
37	18-19	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Campbell Woods	set Kennedy Seekford	+1.3
38	19-19	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.4
39	20-19	STETSN	STETSN	Bad set	Morgan Baldridge		+2.0
40	20-20	STETSN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.6
41	20-21	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Campbell Woods	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.9
42	20-22	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	blk Rebekah Buchholz	+1.7
43	21-22	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.2
44	21-23	STETSN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Morgan Baldridge	set Ashtan Dodson	+1.5
45	21-24	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Izzy Castelloe, Rebekah Buchholz	+1.2
46	21-25	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Attack err	Lelia Fitz		+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.3
2	2-0	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Rebekah Buchholz		+0.4
3	2-1	STETSN	FURMAN×6	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.3
4	2-2	FURMAN	FURMAN×6	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Kennedy Seekford	+0.4
5	2-3	FURMAN	FURMAN×6	Attack err	Lelia Fitz		+0.3
6	2-4	FURMAN	FURMAN×6	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko	blk Rebekah Buchholz, Ashtan Dodson	+0.3
7	2-5	FURMAN	FURMAN×6	Bad set	Maia Keely Pou		+0.3
8	2-6	FURMAN	FURMAN×6	Attack err	Lelia Fitz	blk Ashtan Dodson, Rebekah Buchholz	+0.2
9	3-6	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.2
10	3-7	STETSN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Rebekah Buchholz	set Emily Navarro	+0.2
11	3-8	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Kacie Moore	set Emily Navarro	+0.2
12	3-9	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.1
13	3-10	FURMAN	FURMAN×4	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	blk Ashtan Dodson, Kacie Moore	+0.1
14	4-10	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
15	4-11	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.1
16	4-12	FURMAN	FURMAN	Ace	FURMAN server	aced Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+0.1
17	5-12	FURMAN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Kacie Moore	blk Sofia Torcello	+0.1
18	6-12	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson		+0.1
19	7-12	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Ashtan Dodson		+0.1
20	7-13	STETSN	FURMAN	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.1
21	7-14	FURMAN	FURMAN	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.1
22	8-14	FURMAN	STETSN×4	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Jannelize Perez	+0.1
23	9-14	STETSN	STETSN×4	Attack err	Amber Watson		+0.1
24	10-14	STETSN	STETSN×4	Attack err	Campbell Woods		+0.2
25	11-14	STETSN	STETSN×4	Bad set	Morgan Baldridge		+0.3
26	11-15	STETSN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+0.2
27	11-16	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Rebekah Buchholz	set Morgan Baldridge	+0.2
28	11-17	FURMAN	FURMAN×3	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+0.2
29	12-17	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
30	12-18	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+0.1
31	13-18	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
32	13-19	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Emily Navarro	+0.1
33	14-19	FURMAN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
34	14-20	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Izzy Castelloe	set Emily Navarro	+0.1
35	15-20	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.1
36	15-21	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Emily Navarro	+0.1
37	15-22	FURMAN	FURMAN	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.1
38	16-22	FURMAN	STETSN	Attack err	Kacie Moore		+0.0
39	16-23	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Ashtan Dodson	set Kennedy Seekford	+0.0
40	17-23	FURMAN	STETSN	Serve err	FURMAN server		+0.0
41	17-24	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Campbell Woods	set Morgan Baldridge	+0.0
42	18-24	FURMAN	STETSN×6	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
43	19-24	STETSN	STETSN×6	Attack err	Amber Watson		+0.0
44	20-24	STETSN	STETSN×6	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.0
45	21-24	STETSN	STETSN×6	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
46	22-24	STETSN	STETSN×6	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.3
47	23-24	STETSN	STETSN×6	Attack err	Amber Watson	blk Vanessa Shevchenko, Lelia Fitz	+0.6
48	23-25	STETSN	FURMAN	Kill	Amber Watson	set Morgan Baldridge	+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Stetson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.