Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026 · Neutral site

Ball St. def. Furman 3–1

Ball St. beat Furman 3-1 (25-16, 25-16, 23-25, 25-18) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. Ball St.'s Ava Smith led with 16 kills, and Sophie Ledbetter added 26 digs.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set1234Sets
FURMAN161625181
BALLST252523253

Win probability

Ball St. above 50 · Furman below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.0% FURMANrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.0% to Furman — set 4, FURMAN 5-4 BALLST. Madison Buckley stuffed by Amber Watson & Rebekah Buchholz. BALLST win probability 92% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FURMAN 11.5%88.5% BALLST

Furman wins

3-0
1.6%
3-1
3.6%
3-2
6.4%

Ball St. wins

3-0
41.9%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.9%
FURMAN break %
37.5% vs this opp
BALLST break %
46.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Madison Buckley stuffed by Amber Watson & Rebekah Buchholz

    Set 4 · FURMAN 5-4 BALLST · FURMAN 8% → 10%

  2. 02
    FurmanAce+2.0%

    Furman ace on Ava Smith

    Set 4 · FURMAN 8-8 BALLST · FURMAN 6% → 8%

  3. 03

    Kill by Izzy Castelloe (set by Emily Navarro)

    Set 3 · FURMAN 25-23 BALLST · FURMAN 5% → 7%

  4. 04
    Tiffany SnookKill+1.8%

    Kill by Tiffany Snook (set by Lindsey Green)

    Set 4 · FURMAN 9-11 BALLST · BALLST 93% → 95%

  5. 05
    Audrey GeerKill+1.7%

    Kill by Audrey Geer (set by Reese Axness)

    Set 4 · FURMAN 5-6 BALLST · BALLST 92% → 93%

  6. 06

    Kill by Rebekah Buchholz (set by Emily Navarro)

    Set 4 · FURMAN 1-0 BALLST · FURMAN 7% → 9%

  7. 07

    Kill by Rebekah Buchholz (set by Morgan Baldridge)

    Set 4 · FURMAN 17-19 BALLST · FURMAN 3% → 4%

  8. 08
    Amber WatsonAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Amber Watson

    Set 4 · FURMAN 18-21 BALLST · BALLST 96% → 98%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Furmanaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416134.44100020010.516.5
46321.14320000052.58.5
44111.273103000426
42427-.0740011200213
43516-.1250031010003
4001.0001915700001
43519-.10510010031.54.5
4000–5202220002
4000–90160010.50.5
23516-.125010400215
1000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals3724145.09037413654018975
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416438.3160029300016
49014.64310000132.511.5
49634.08820214102110
47325.16000030010.57.5
4000–1901800000
2137-.28600000010.51.5
410627.1480004004212
4000–6312600003
41011.0002702700001
2113.00000010031.52.5
2000–000500000
1203.667011100003
1000–000000000
Team totals5623152.2175549784114898

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 FURMAN · BALLST 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 FURMANBALLST 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 FURMANBALLST 6

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 FURMANBALLST 3

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 3 FURMANBALLST 5

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Furman leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Furman

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%7/15
36%4/11
2
100%7/7
46%6/13
3
64%7/11
13%1/8
4
55%6/11
45%5/11
5
46%6/13
0%0/6
6
38%6/16
25%2/8
All
53%39/73
32%18/57

Ball St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
68%15/22
2
88%7/8
0%0/7
3
60%6/10
36%4/11
4
86%6/7
25%2/8
5
100%6/6
57%8/14
6
55%6/11
45%5/11
All
68%39/57
47%34/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#FURMAN-BALLSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BALLSTBALLST×4KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+1.1
20-2BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+1.0
30-3BALLSTBALLST×4KillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+0.9
40-4BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+0.7
51-4BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.5
62-4FURMANFURMANAttack errMadison Buckley+0.9
72-5FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.6
83-5BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.7
93-6FURMANBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness+0.7
103-7BALLSTBALLSTBlockedAshley Steinblk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise+0.8
114-7BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.5
125-7FURMANFURMANAttack errAva Smith+0.9
135-8FURMANBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.7
146-8BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.7
156-9FURMANBALLST×3KillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.7
166-10BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.+0.8
176-11BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errLauren Haynes+0.7
187-11BALLSTFURMANBlockedGwen Crullblk Kacie Moore, Morgan Baldridge+0.4
197-12FURMANBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.5
208-12BALLSTFURMAN×3KillLauren Haynesset Kennedy Seekford+0.4
219-12FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedAudrey Geerblk Rebekah Buchholz, Izzy Castelloe+0.8
2210-12FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errAudrey Geer+1.1
2310-13FURMANBALLST×4Serve errFurman+0.8
2410-14BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Audrey Geer+0.9
2510-15BALLSTBALLST×4KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.7
2610-16BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+0.5
2711-16BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.3
2811-17FURMANBALLSTAttack errRebekah Buchholz+0.3
2912-17BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.3
3012-18FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.3
3113-18BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.2
3213-19FURMANBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+0.3
3313-20BALLSTBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.2
3414-20BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.1
3514-21FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.1
3614-22BALLSTBALLSTAttack errLauren Haynes+0.1
3715-22BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.·
3815-23FURMANBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green·
3915-24BALLSTBALLSTAttack errCampbell Woods·
4016-24BALLSTFURMANKillRebekah Buchholzset Morgan Baldridge·
4116-25FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman·
Set 2
10-1FURMANBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.5
21-1BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.6
31-2FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.6
42-2BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.6
52-3FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.6
63-3BALLSTFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.6
74-3FURMANFURMANAttack errAva Smith+1.0
84-4FURMANBALLST×3Attack errAshley Stein+0.7
94-5BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errCampbell Woods+0.9
104-6BALLSTBALLST×3KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.8
115-6BALLSTFURMANBlockedTiffany Snookblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+0.6
125-7FURMANBALLST×3KillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.6
135-8BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+0.7
145-9BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errKacie Moore+0.6
156-9BALLSTFURMANBlockedAudrey Geerblk Kacie Moore, Campbell Woods+0.4
167-9FURMANFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Kennedy Seekford+0.7
177-10FURMANBALLST×3KillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.5
187-11BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Lauren Haynes+0.6
197-12BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedLauren Haynesblk Tiffany Snook, Gwen Crull+0.5
208-12BALLSTFURMANKillCampbell Woodsset Morgan Baldridge+0.3
219-12FURMANFURMANAttack errGwen Crull+0.6
229-13FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.5
2310-13BALLSTFURMANAttack errGwen Crull+0.4
2410-14FURMANBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+0.5
2511-14BALLSTFURMANKillRebekah Buchholzset Emily Navarro+0.4
2611-15FURMANBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.5
2712-15BALLSTFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.4
2812-16FURMANBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+0.5
2912-17BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+0.5
3013-17BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.3
3113-18FURMANBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.4
3214-18BALLSTFURMANKillCampbell Woodsset Morgan Baldridge+0.3
3315-18FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Ava Smith+0.6
3415-19FURMANBALLST×6KillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+0.5
3515-20BALLSTBALLST×6KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.5
3615-21BALLSTBALLST×6BlockedCampbell Woodsblk Audrey Geer, Leah Pike+0.3
3715-22BALLSTBALLST×6Attack errLauren Haynes+0.1
3815-23BALLSTBALLST×6Attack errLauren Haynes·
3915-24BALLSTBALLST×6Attack errCampbell Woods·
4016-24BALLSTFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Kennedy Seekford·
4116-25FURMANBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green·
Set 3
11-0BALLSTFURMANBad setReese Axness+0.3
22-0FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Ava Smith+0.5
32-1FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.3
43-1BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.4
53-2FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.3
64-2BALLSTFURMAN×4KillAshley Steinset Kennedy Seekford+0.4
75-2FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Kacie Moore+0.5
86-2FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Rebekah Buchholz+0.6
97-2FURMANFURMAN×4KillAshley Steinset Emily Navarro+0.6
107-3FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.3
118-3BALLSTFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.4
128-4FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.3
138-5BALLSTBALLSTBlockedKacie Mooreblk Camryn Wise+0.5
149-5BALLSTFURMANBlockedTiffany Snookblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+0.5
159-6FURMANBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.4
1610-6BALLSTFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.5
1711-6FURMANFURMANBad setLindsey Green+0.6
1811-7FURMANBALLSTKillLeah Pikeset Lindsey Green+0.3
1912-7BALLSTFURMANAttack errAudrey Geer+0.5
2013-7FURMANFURMANAttack errAudrey Geer+0.6
2113-8FURMANBALLSTAttack errAmber Watson+0.3
2214-8BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+0.4
2315-8FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.5
2415-9FURMANBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+0.2
2515-10BALLSTBALLST×3KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.4
2615-11BALLSTBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+0.5
2716-11BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.5
2816-12FURMANBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+0.3
2916-13BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+0.6
3017-13BALLSTFURMANAttack errTiffany Snook+0.6
3117-14FURMANBALLSTBlockedAshley Steinblk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise+0.4
3217-15BALLSTBALLSTAttack errCampbell Woods+0.7
3318-15BALLSTFURMANKillCampbell Woodsset Kacie Moore+0.7
3418-16FURMANBALLST×3KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.5
3518-17BALLSTBALLST×3KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.8
3618-18BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Kennedy Seekford+0.9
3719-18BALLSTFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
3819-19FURMANBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+0.7
3919-20BALLSTBALLSTBlockedAmber Watsonblk Leah Pike, Madison Buckley+0.9
4020-20BALLSTFURMAN×4BlockedLeah Pikeblk Amber Watson, Rebekah Buchholz+0.7
4121-20FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Kennedy Seekford+1.2
4222-20FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errMadison Buckley+1.3
4323-20FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+1.2
4423-21FURMANBALLSTServe errFurman+0.5
4524-21BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.9
4624-22FURMANBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.3
4724-23BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Camryn Wise+1.0
4825-23BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+1.9
Set 4
11-0FURMANFURMANKillRebekah Buchholzset Emily Navarro+1.7
21-1FURMANBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+1.2
32-1BALLSTFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+1.3
42-2FURMANBALLSTBlockedAshley Steinblk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise+1.2
52-3BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+1.6
63-3BALLSTFURMANAttack errTiffany Snook+1.2
73-4FURMANBALLSTAttack errAmber Watson+1.1
84-4BALLSTFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
95-4FURMANFURMANBlockedMadison Buckleyblk Amber Watson, Rebekah Buchholz+2.0
105-5FURMANBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.3
115-6BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+1.7
125-7BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errAmber Watson+1.6
136-7BALLSTFURMANBlockedAva Smithblk Campbell Woods, Rebekah Buchholz+1.2
146-8FURMANBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+1.1
157-8BALLSTFURMANServe errBall St.+1.2
168-8FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Ava Smith+2.0
178-9FURMANBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+1.4
189-9BALLSTFURMANAttack errTiffany Snook+1.5
199-10FURMANBALLST×5KillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+1.4
209-11BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.8
219-12BALLSTBALLST×5KillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+1.5
229-13BALLSTBALLST×5Attack errKacie Moore+1.2
239-14BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.9
2410-14BALLSTFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Emily Navarro+0.6
2511-14FURMAN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
2612-14FURMANFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
2712-15FURMANBALLST×4KillLindsey Greenset Sophie Ledbetter+1.2
2812-16BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Audrey Geer+1.3
2912-17BALLSTBALLST×4KillTiffany Snookset Sophie Ledbetter+1.0
3012-18BALLSTBALLST×4KillAlana Baileyset Lindsey Green+0.6
3113-18BALLSTFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Campbell Woods+0.3
3214-18FURMANFURMANAttack errAudrey Geer+0.7
3314-19FURMANBALLSTKillAlana Baileyset Lindsey Green+0.7
3415-19BALLSTFURMAN×3BlockedAva Smithblk Kacie Moore, Campbell Woods+0.5
3516-19FURMANFURMAN×3AceFurmanaced Audrey Geer+1.1
3617-19FURMANFURMAN×3KillRebekah Buchholzset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
3717-20FURMANBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.5
3818-20BALLSTFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
3918-21FURMANBALLST×5Attack errAmber Watson+1.6
4018-22BALLSTBALLST×5Bad setEmily Navarro+1.4
4118-23BALLSTBALLST×5KillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+0.7
4218-24BALLSTBALLST×5Attack errIzzy Castelloe+0.2
4318-25BALLSTBALLST×5AceBall St.aced Kennedy Seekford·

Score shown after each rally, Furman first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).