FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Marshall def. Niagara 3–0

(25-18, 25-8, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NIAGRA	18	8	16	0
MARSH	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MARSH above 50 · NIAGRA below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Niagara — set 1, NIAGRA 5-1 MARSH. Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui). MARSH win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NIAGRA 0.3%99.7% MARSH

Niagara wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.2%

Marshall wins

3-0

84.0%

3-1

14.2%

3-2

1.5%

NIAGRA break %: 30.6% vs this opp
MARSH break %: 51.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Payton LeeKill+0.1%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 1 · NIAGRA 5-1 MARSH · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
02
Payton LeeKill+0.1%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Ashley Moreland)
Set 1 · NIAGRA 4-1 MARSH · NIAGRA 0% → 1%
03
Karlotta KattaiAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Karlotta Kattai
Set 1 · NIAGRA 5-3 MARSH · MARSH 99% → 100%
04
Karlotta KattaiKill+0.1%
Kill by Karlotta Kattai (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 1 · NIAGRA 7-4 MARSH · NIAGRA 1% → 1%
05
Kadence GoolsbyAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Kadence Goolsby
Set 1 · NIAGRA 7-6 MARSH · MARSH 99% → 100%
06
NIAGRA serverService error+0.1%
Niagara service error
Set 1 · NIAGRA 11-11 MARSH · NIAGRA 0% → 0%
07
Payton LeeKill+0.1%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 1 · NIAGRA 6-3 MARSH · NIAGRA 0% → 1%
08
Kadence GoolsbyKill+0.1%
Kill by Kadence Goolsby (set by Ashley Moreland)
Set 1 · NIAGRA 8-6 MARSH · NIAGRA 0% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Niagaraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Payton LeeOH	3	8	4	18	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
12Karlotta KattaiOH	3	6	8	17	-.118	1	0	0	5	3	1	0.5	6.5
18Katelynn RottmanOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Jakayla BrownMB	3	2	0	7	.286	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
7Taylor JenkinsMB	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	3	0	1	3	-.333	15	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	3	4	3	14	.071	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	5	1	0	0	1
14Noel PerkinsOH	3	0	0	0	–	8	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Kaitlyn DoyleOH	2	3	2	7	.143	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	3
Team totals		27	22	83	.060	27	2	5	27	7	4	2	42

Marshallhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Emma BarnettOH	3	9	3	23	.261	1	4	2	2	1	0	2	1	14
16Marae ReillyMB	3	8	0	14	.571	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Beatrice CiccarelliMB	3	6	0	7	.857	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
15Logan HendersonOPP	3	6	1	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
20Maddie SmithOH	3	6	1	10	.500	2	0	0	9	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
23Kahea CarvalhoS	3	0	0	0	–	16	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	1
10Lilly HowellOH	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
4Emma SayreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
14Isabella Nieves	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
17Lia BeverlyMB	2	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
19Addison SaundersL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	6	76	.447	35	7	6	29	2	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 NIAGRA · MARSH 10

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRAMARSH 4

Set 2

8-25

Longest run 1 NIAGRAMARSH 10

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 NIAGRAMARSH 3

Bars above the line = Marshall leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Niagara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%7/21	40%4/10
2	47%7/15	22%2/9
3	45%5/11	13%1/8
4	42%5/12	17%1/6
5	50%5/10	0%0/5
6	100%4/4	17%1/6
All	45%33/73	20%9/44

Marshall

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	67%10/15
2	78%7/9	46%6/13
3	86%6/7	57%8/14
4	83%5/6	55%6/11
5	100%5/5	55%6/11
6	83%5/6	44%4/9
All	80%35/44	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

117 rallies

Rally log

#	NIAGRA-MARSH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
2	2-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
3	2-1	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
4	3-1	MARSH	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
5	4-1	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+0.1
6	5-1	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
7	5-2	NIAGRA	MARSH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
8	5-3	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.1
9	6-3	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
10	6-4	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
11	7-4	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
12	7-5	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+0.1
13	7-6	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+0.1
14	8-6	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Ashley Moreland	+0.1
15	8-7	NIAGRA	MARSH×4	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Emma Sayre	+0.1
16	8-8	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+0.1
17	8-9	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.1
18	8-10	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Marae Reilly		+0.1
19	9-10	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
20	9-11	NIAGRA	MARSH	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Marae Reilly, Lilly Howell	+0.0
21	10-11	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
22	11-11	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
23	11-12	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
24	11-13	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.1
25	11-14	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Team	+0.1
26	12-14	MARSH	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.0
27	12-15	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Barnett	+0.0
28	12-16	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
29	12-17	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith		+0.0
30	13-17	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
31	13-18	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
32	13-19	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
33	13-20	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Maddie Smith, Beatrice Ciccarelli	+0.0
34	14-20	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
35	15-20	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Emma Barnett	+0.0
36	15-21	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
37	15-22	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby		+0.0
38	15-23	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
39	16-23	MARSH	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.0
40	16-24	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
41	17-24	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
42	18-24	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Maddie Smith	+0.0
43	18-25	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
2	1-1	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
3	1-2	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Maddie Smith	+0.0
4	2-2	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Taylor Jenkins	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
5	2-3	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
6	2-4	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
7	3-4	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
8	3-5	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
9	3-6	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
10	3-7	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
11	4-7	MARSH	NIAGRA	Attack err	Maddie Smith	blk Jakayla Brown, Karlotta Kattai	+0.0
12	4-8	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
13	4-9	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Emma Barnett, Beatrice Ciccarelli	+0.0
14	5-9	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Karlotta Kattai	+0.0
15	5-10	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
16	6-10	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
17	6-11	NIAGRA	MARSH×10	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
18	6-12	MARSH	MARSH×10	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
19	6-13	MARSH	MARSH×10	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
20	6-14	MARSH	MARSH×10	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
21	6-15	MARSH	MARSH×10	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
22	6-16	MARSH	MARSH×10	Ace	MARSH server	aced Karlotta Kattai	+0.0
23	6-17	MARSH	MARSH×10	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
24	6-18	MARSH	MARSH×10	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
25	6-19	MARSH	MARSH×10	Attack err	Taylor Jenkins		+0.0
26	6-20	MARSH	MARSH×10	Kill	Lia Beverly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
27	7-20	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
28	7-21	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
29	7-22	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
30	7-23	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Ashley Moreland	+0.0
31	8-23	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
32	8-24	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
33	8-25	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Logan Henderson		+0.0
2	1-1	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
3	1-2	MARSH	MARSH	Bad set	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.0
4	2-2	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
5	2-3	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
6	3-3	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
7	3-4	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
8	4-4	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
9	4-5	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
10	4-6	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Emma Barnett	+0.0
11	4-7	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Isabella Nieves	set Maddie Smith	+0.0
12	5-7	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
13	5-8	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
14	6-8	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
15	6-9	NIAGRA	MARSH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
16	7-9	MARSH	NIAGRA	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
17	7-10	NIAGRA	MARSH	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
18	8-10	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
19	8-11	NIAGRA	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
20	8-12	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Logan Henderson	+0.0
21	8-13	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Karlotta Kattai	+0.0
22	9-13	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
23	9-14	NIAGRA	MARSH	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.0
24	9-15	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
25	10-15	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Jakayla Brown	+0.0
26	10-16	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
27	11-16	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
28	11-17	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
29	11-18	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.0
30	12-18	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
31	12-19	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Emma Sayre	+0.0
32	13-19	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
33	13-20	NIAGRA	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
34	13-21	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Karlotta Kattai	+0.0
35	14-21	MARSH	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
36	14-22	NIAGRA	MARSH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
37	14-23	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.0
38	15-23	MARSH	NIAGRA	Bad set	Emma Sayre		+0.0
39	16-23	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Lia Beverly	blk Jakayla Brown, Katelynn Rottman	+0.0
40	16-24	NIAGRA	MARSH	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
41	16-25	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Lia Beverly, Lilly Howell	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.