FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayASUN

3:0

HomeCUSA

Jacksonville def. Jacksonville St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-15, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
JVILLE	25	25	25	3
JAX ST	23	15	13	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

JAX ST above 50 · JVILLE below

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Jacksonville — set 1, JVILLE 25-23 JAX ST. Kill by Haley Yount (set by Jade Cuya Cobos). JAX ST win probability 8% → 5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

JVILLE 90.4%9.6% JAX ST

Jacksonville wins

3-0

45.2%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.7%

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

2.9%

3-2

5.4%

JVILLE break %: 48.7% vs this opp
JAX ST break %: 38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Haley YountKill+2.9%
Kill by Haley Yount (set by Jade Cuya Cobos)
Set 1 · JVILLE 25-23 JAX ST · JVILLE 92% → 95%
02
Claire MrukowskiKill+2.8%
Kill by Claire Mrukowski (set by Emersen Strain)
Set 1 · JVILLE 20-20 JAX ST · JVILLE 85% → 87%
03
Emersen StrainKill+2.7%
Kill by Emersen Strain (set by Elle Kennedy)
Set 1 · JVILLE 21-20 JAX ST · JVILLE 87% → 90%
04
Claire EvansKill+2.4%
Kill by Claire Evans (set by Sofia Varela)
Set 1 · JVILLE 18-20 JAX ST · JAX ST 15% → 17%
05
Azavia ThomasAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Azavia Thomas
Set 1 · JVILLE 22-20 JAX ST · JVILLE 90% → 92%
06
Jaylyn TuiasosopoKill+2.3%
Kill by Jaylyn Tuiasosopo (set by Emersen Strain)
Set 1 · JVILLE 18-19 JAX ST · JVILLE 83% → 85%
07
JVILLE serverService error+2.1%
Jacksonville service error
Set 1 · JVILLE 16-19 JAX ST · JAX ST 17% → 19%
08
Lauren BuchananAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Lauren Buchanan
Set 1 · JVILLE 16-18 JAX ST · JVILLE 81% → 83%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Jacksonvilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Abbie TuyoOH	3	12	1	17	.647	1	1	0	6	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
5Jaylyn TuiasosopoOH	3	9	4	20	.250	0	1	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
11Haley YountMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	2	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
8Claire MrukowskiOH	3	6	1	12	.417	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
6Addison KriegerMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Emersen StrainS	3	1	0	1	1.000	20	2	2	9	0	0	0	0	3
13Kathryn AdlerOH	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Elle KennedyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	9	1	0	0	0	1
10Jade Cuya CobosS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
22Ana NastaseS	2	0	0	1	.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Ana TobarL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	7	75	.440	37	7	7	34	5	1	8	5	75

Jacksonville St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
26Claire EvansOH	3	8	3	20	.250	0	0	0	5	1	1	0.5	8.5
9Azavia ThomasOH	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
8Lauren BuchananOH	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5
13Taya NordmannMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
23Sofia VarelaS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
17D'Yanna SpicerMB	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Addison StoneS	3	0	0	0	–	10	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
11Reese TiesingDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
7Gemma MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	2	0	0	0
1Sophia SchweikertOH	2	2	4	12	-.167	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	5
14Chloe MittelstadtOPP	2	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
6Anna RayOH	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		31	17	86	.163	29	5	10	20	7	4	2	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 JVILLE · JAX ST 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 5 JVILLEJAX ST 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 JVILLEJAX ST 3

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 8 JVILLEJAX ST 3

Bars above the line = Jacksonville St. leads, below = Jacksonville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Jacksonville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	69%11/16
2	64%7/11	53%8/15
3	70%7/10	61%11/18
4	75%6/8	40%4/10
5	80%4/5	50%4/8
6	50%4/8	33%2/6
All	66%35/53	55%40/73

Jacksonville St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	45%5/11
2	30%7/23	30%3/10
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	44%4/9	30%3/10
5	100%4/4	20%1/5
6	44%4/9	33%2/6
All	45%33/73	34%18/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	JVILLE-JAX ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Sofia Varela	+1.1
2	0-2	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.3
3	1-2	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.9
4	1-3	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+1.0
5	2-3	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.9
6	2-4	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Gemma Morris	+1.1
7	3-4	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.9
8	3-5	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.1
9	3-6	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Elle Kennedy	+1.5
10	4-6	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.0
11	4-7	JVILLE	JAX ST	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo		+1.3
12	5-7	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.1
13	5-8	JVILLE	JAX ST×3	Kill	Chloe Mittelstadt	set Addison Stone	+1.3
14	5-9	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+1.7
15	5-10	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo		+1.7
16	6-10	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.0
17	6-11	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+1.4
18	7-11	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Emersen Strain	+1.1
19	8-11	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan		+1.5
20	8-12	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela	+1.5
21	9-12	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+1.2
22	9-13	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela	+1.5
23	9-14	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Claire Mrukowski	blk Claire Evans, Taya Nordmann	+1.9
24	10-14	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Elle Kennedy	+1.1
25	10-15	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.5
26	11-15	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.1
27	12-15	JVILLE	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.6
28	12-16	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Addison Stone	+1.7
29	12-17	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Chloe Mittelstadt	set Addison Stone	+2.0
30	13-17	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.1
31	13-18	JVILLE	JAX ST	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo		+1.6
32	14-18	JAX ST	JVILLE×3	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+1.0
33	15-18	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+1.7
34	16-18	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan		+2.0
35	16-19	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+2.1
36	17-19	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+1.5
37	18-19	JVILLE	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+2.3
38	18-20	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Sofia Varela	+2.4
39	19-20	JAX ST	JVILLE×5	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+1.9
40	20-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+2.8
41	21-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Emersen Strain	set Elle Kennedy	+2.7
42	22-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	Azavia Thomas		+2.4
43	23-20	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Claire Evans	+1.6
44	23-21	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.8
45	24-21	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Emersen Strain	+1.3
46	24-22	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela	+0.6
47	24-23	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Abbie Tuyo		+1.8
48	25-23	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+2.9
Set 2
1	1-0	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Lauren Buchanan	+0.6
2	2-0	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan	blk Claire Mrukowski, Addison Krieger	+0.6
3	3-0	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.5
4	4-0	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Claire Evans		+0.4
5	4-1	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.3
6	4-2	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Addison Krieger		+0.5
7	5-2	JAX ST	JVILLE×5	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.4
8	6-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Emersen Strain	+0.4
9	7-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Team	+0.4
10	8-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.3
11	9-2	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Emersen Strain	+0.2
12	9-3	JVILLE	JAX ST×3	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.1
13	9-4	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Team	+0.2
14	9-5	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Team	+0.3
15	10-5	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.3
16	10-6	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	D'Yanna Spicer	set Sofia Varela	+0.3
17	11-6	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.3
18	12-6	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Claire Evans	blk Haley Yount, Kathryn Adler	+0.3
19	12-7	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.2
20	13-7	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.2
21	13-8	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.2
22	14-8	JAX ST	JVILLE×3	Attack err	Chloe Mittelstadt	blk Haley Yount, Abbie Tuyo	+0.2
23	15-8	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Gemma Morris	+0.2
24	16-8	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Gemma Morris	+0.1
25	16-9	JVILLE	JAX ST×3	Kill	Chloe Mittelstadt	set Addison Stone	+0.1
26	16-10	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Chloe Mittelstadt	set Addison Krieger	+0.1
27	16-11	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Bad set	Jade Cuya Cobos		+0.2
28	17-11	JAX ST	JVILLE×5	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.2
29	18-11	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.2
30	19-11	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Kill	Addison Krieger	set Claire Mrukowski	+0.1
31	20-11	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Attack err	D'Yanna Spicer		+0.0
32	21-11	JVILLE	JVILLE×5	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Team	+0.0
33	21-12	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Addison Stone	+0.0
34	22-12	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
35	23-12	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Claire Evans		+0.0
36	23-13	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.0
37	24-13	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.0
38	24-14	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
39	24-15	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	+0.0
40	25-15	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.2
2	1-1	JVILLE	JAX ST×3	Kill	Claire Evans	set Sofia Varela	+0.3
3	1-2	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	blk Anna Ray, Azavia Thomas	+0.4
4	1-3	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Team	+0.4
5	2-3	JAX ST	JVILLE×8	Kill	Claire Mrukowski	set Elle Kennedy	+0.3
6	3-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Anna Ray		+0.4
7	4-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Abbie Tuyo	+0.3
8	5-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.3
9	6-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Kill	Claire Mrukowski		+0.3
10	7-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Azavia Thomas	blk Haley Yount, Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	+0.2
11	8-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Azavia Thomas		+0.2
12	9-3	JVILLE	JVILLE×8	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert	blk Haley Yount	+0.1
13	9-4	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.1
14	10-4	JAX ST	JVILLE×3	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.1
15	11-4	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Kill	Kathryn Adler	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.1
16	12-4	JVILLE	JVILLE×3	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Jade Cuya Cobos	+0.1
17	12-5	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Gemma Morris	+0.0
18	13-5	JAX ST	JVILLE×4	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.1
19	14-5	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Ace	JVILLE server	aced Team	+0.0
20	15-5	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Bad set	Addison Stone		+0.0
21	16-5	JVILLE	JVILLE×4	Attack err	Taya Nordmann		+0.0
22	16-6	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.0
23	17-6	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Ana Nastase	+0.0
24	17-7	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+0.0
25	18-7	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.0
26	19-7	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert		+0.0
27	19-8	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
28	19-9	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Sofia Varela	+0.0
29	20-9	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Abbie Tuyo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
30	21-9	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert		+0.0
31	21-10	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.0
32	22-10	JAX ST	JVILLE	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.0
33	22-11	JVILLE	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Sofia Varela	+0.0
34	22-12	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann		+0.0
35	23-12	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Jaylyn Tuiasosopo	set Emersen Strain	+0.0
36	24-12	JVILLE	JVILLE	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert		+0.0
37	24-13	JVILLE	JAX ST	Serve err	JVILLE server		+0.0
38	25-13	JAX ST	JVILLE	Kill	Haley Yount	set Ana Nastase	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Jacksonville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.