Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026 · Neutral site

Bellarmine def. Jacksonville St. 3–2

Bellarmine beat Jacksonville St. 3-2 (25-17, 25-12, 20-25, 16-25, 15-8) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site. Mady Yaden led Bellarmine with 13 kills; Jacksonville St.'s Azavia Thomas had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set12345Sets
JAX ST1712252582
BELLAR25252016153

Win probability

Bellarmine above 50 · Jacksonville St. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+6.4% BELLARrally 188 · set 5

Biggest swing: 6.4% to Bellarmine — set 5, JAX ST 0-1 BELLAR. Bellarmine ace on Claire Evans. BELLAR win probability 72% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

JAX ST 8.1%91.9% BELLAR

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.4%
3-2
4.7%

Bellarmine wins

3-0
48.0%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
12.7%
JAX ST break %
38.3% vs this opp
BELLAR break %
49.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    BellarmineAce+6.4%

    Bellarmine ace on Claire Evans

    Set 5 · JAX ST 0-1 BELLAR · BELLAR 72% → 79%

  2. 02
    Mya WhiteKill+5.6%

    Kill by Mya White (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 5 · JAX ST 0-2 BELLAR · BELLAR 79% → 84%

  3. 03
    Mary HermanKill+5.0%

    Kill by Mary Herman (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 5 · JAX ST 7-10 BELLAR · BELLAR 86% → 91%

  4. 04
    BellarmineAce+4.9%

    Bellarmine ace on Delaney Moon

    Set 5 · JAX ST 1-4 BELLAR · BELLAR 84% → 89%

  5. 05
    Claire EvansAttack error+4.7%

    Attack error by Claire Evans

    Set 5 · JAX ST 6-9 BELLAR · BELLAR 86% → 91%

  6. 06
    Azavia ThomasKill+4.5%

    Kill by Azavia Thomas (set by Sofia Varela)

    Set 5 · JAX ST 1-2 BELLAR · JAX ST 16% → 20%

  7. 07
    Mya WhiteKill+4.5%

    Kill by Mya White (set by Payton Parsons)

    Set 5 · JAX ST 7-11 BELLAR · BELLAR 91% → 96%

  8. 08
    Maddie CarnesKill+4.5%

    Kill by Maddie Carnes (set by Payton Parsons)

    Set 5 · JAX ST 5-8 BELLAR · BELLAR 86% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518231.5160001006321
514840.1500027400014
59533.1210119202111
57110.60000010031.58.5
5012-.500000002444
5011-1.0002741300004
5236-.167000100002
5000–1912300001
5011-1.0002021220000
4000–001600000
3000–00000010.50.5
3013-.333000000000
1102.500000000001
1000–000010000
1000–000000000
Team totals5123129.217486943102161087
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
59113.61541516002115
513435.25700000111.514.5
512428.28610213302113
511527.22210031010.511.5
57312.33301310031.59.5
5417.42900020031.55.5
5102.500210410002
5000–2211400002
5000–610510001
5000–004000000
Team totals5718124.3155310114861127101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 JAX ST · BELLAR 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 JAX STBELLAR 5

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 3 JAX STBELLAR 7

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 JAX STBELLAR 3

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 7 JAX STBELLAR 3

Set 5

8-15

Longest run 1 JAX STBELLAR 5

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = Jacksonville St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Jacksonville St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
43%6/14
2
53%8/15
62%13/21
3
70%7/10
38%5/13
4
54%7/13
42%5/12
5
86%6/7
13%1/8
6
50%6/12
14%1/7
All
58%44/76
41%31/75

Bellarmine

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%9/22
43%6/14
2
57%8/14
59%13/22
3
54%7/13
13%1/8
4
70%7/10
36%4/11
5
88%7/8
42%5/12
6
75%6/8
33%3/9
All
59%44/75
42%32/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#JAX ST-BELLARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0JAX STJAX STAceJacksonville St.aced Natalie Bland+1.0
22-0JAX STJAX STAceJacksonville St.aced Natalie Bland+1.1
32-1JAX STBELLAR×5Attack errClaire Evans+0.8
42-2BELLARBELLAR×5Attack errSofia Varela+1.0
52-3BELLARBELLAR×5BlockedClaire Evansblk Mary Herman, Mya White+0.9
62-4BELLARBELLAR×5KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.8
72-5BELLARBELLAR×5KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.7
83-5BELLARJAX STBlockedMady Yadenblk D'Yanna Spicer, Azavia Thomas+0.5
93-6JAX STBELLARKillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+0.5
104-6BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Payton Parsons+0.6
115-6JAX STJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.9
125-7JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+0.7
136-7BELLARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+0.7
147-7JAX STJAX STAceJacksonville St.aced Natalie Bland+1.1
157-8JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+0.8
167-9BELLARBELLARBlockedSophia Schweikertblk Erika Smith, Natalie Bland+0.9
178-9BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+0.8
189-9JAX STJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+1.2
199-10JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.9
2010-10BELLARJAX STKillSophia Schweikertset Addison Stone+1.0
2110-11JAX STBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.9
2210-12BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errD'Yanna Spicer+1.1
2310-13BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.9
2411-13BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+0.7
2511-14JAX STBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Natalie Bland+0.7
2612-14BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+0.7
2712-15JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+0.7
2813-15BELLARJAX ST×3Serve errBellarmine+0.7
2914-15JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errMya White+1.2
3015-15JAX STJAX ST×3BlockedMya Whiteblk Taya Nordmann, Lauren Buchanan+1.6
3115-16JAX STBELLAR×4Attack errLauren Buchanan+1.2
3215-17BELLARBELLAR×4KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.4
3315-18BELLARBELLAR×4KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.1
3415-19BELLARBELLAR×4AceBellarmineaced Claire Evans+0.8
3516-19BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+0.5
3616-20JAX STBELLAR×5KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.6
3716-21BELLARBELLAR×5KillMaddie Carnesset Maddie Carnes+0.5
3816-22BELLARBELLAR×5KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.3
3916-23BELLARBELLAR×5BlockedSophia Schweikertblk Erika Smith, Maddie Carnes+0.1
4016-24BELLARBELLAR×5AceBellarmineaced Gemma Morris·
4117-24BELLARJAX STKillSophia Schweikertset Addison Stone·
4217-25JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.·
Set 2
10-1BELLARBELLAR×4AceBellarmineaced Claire Evans+0.6
20-2BELLARBELLAR×4AceBellarmineaced Claire Evans+0.5
30-3BELLARBELLAR×4KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.4
40-4BELLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
51-4BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.3
61-5JAX STBELLARAttack errClaire Evans+0.3
72-5BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.3
82-6JAX STBELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.3
93-6BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+0.3
104-6JAX STJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+0.5
114-7JAX STBELLAR×7KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.4
124-8BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errLauren Buchanan+0.4
134-9BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errTaya Nordmann+0.3
144-10BELLARBELLAR×7Bad setAddison Stone+0.2
154-11BELLARBELLAR×7BlockedLauren Buchananblk Natalie Bland, Erika Smith+0.2
164-12BELLARBELLAR×7Bad setTaya Nordmann+0.1
174-13BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errSophia Schweikert+0.1
185-13BELLARJAX STAttack errNatalie Bland·
195-14JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Abbie Lyttle+0.1
206-14BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone·
216-15JAX STBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.1
226-16BELLARBELLAR×4KillMary Herman·
236-17BELLARBELLAR×4KillAva Longset Maddie Carnes·
246-18BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errClaire Evans·
257-18BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine·
268-18JAX STJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela·
278-19JAX STBELLAR×3KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes·
288-20BELLARBELLAR×3BlockedClaire Evansblk Mary Herman, Mady Yaden·
298-21BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errAzavia Thomas·
309-21BELLARJAX ST×3KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela·
3110-21JAX STJAX ST×3KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela·
3211-21JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errMya White·
3311-22JAX STBELLARAttack errAzavia Thomas·
3412-22BELLARJAX STKillIzzy Whittakerset Sofia Varela·
3512-23JAX STBELLAR×3KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes·
3612-24BELLARBELLAR×3KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes·
3712-25BELLARBELLAR×3KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes·
Set 3
11-0JAX STJAX STBlockedMary Hermanblk Anna Ray, Lauren Buchanan+0.3
21-1JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Payton Parsons+0.2
31-2BELLARBELLARAttack errDelaney Moon+0.3
42-2BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.2
53-2JAX STJAX STAttack errNatalie Bland+0.3
63-3JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.2
73-4BELLARBELLARAttack errClaire Evans+0.3
84-4BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.2
95-4JAX STJAX STBlockedNatalie Blandblk Azavia Thomas, Taya Nordmann+0.4
105-5JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+0.3
116-5BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.3
127-5JAX STJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+0.4
137-6JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+0.3
148-6BELLARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+0.4
158-7JAX STBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Payton Parsons+0.3
168-8BELLARBELLARBlockedChloe Mittelstadtblk Mady Yaden+0.4
179-8BELLARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+0.3
1810-8JAX STJAX STBad setMaddie Carnes+0.5
1910-9JAX STBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.3
2010-10BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.4
2110-11BELLARBELLAR×3KillMary Herman+0.4
2211-11BELLARJAX ST×3Serve errBellarmine+0.3
2312-11JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Payton Parsons+0.5
2413-11JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Ava Long+0.6
2513-12JAX STBELLARAttack errClaire Evans+0.4
2614-12BELLARJAX ST×3KillLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+0.5
2715-12JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Mya White+0.6
2816-12JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errMaddie Carnes+0.6
2916-13JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Mya White+0.4
3017-13BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.5
3117-14JAX STBELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.4
3218-14BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+0.5
3319-14JAX STJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+0.6
3419-15JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.3
3520-15BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+0.5
3620-16JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+0.3
3721-16BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+0.5
3821-17JAX STBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Ava Long+0.2
3922-17BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+0.4
4022-18JAX STBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.2
4122-19BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Delaney Moon+0.4
4222-20BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.6
4323-20BELLARJAX ST×3KillLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+0.8
4424-20JAX STJAX ST×3KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.7
4525-20JAX STJAX ST×3BlockedMary Hermanblk D'Yanna Spicer+0.3
Set 4
11-0BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+1.1
22-0JAX STJAX STBlockedMya Whiteblk Azavia Thomas, D'Yanna Spicer+1.6
32-1JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.1
43-1BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+1.3
54-1JAX STJAX STBlockedNatalie Blandblk Azavia Thomas, Taya Nordmann+1.9
64-2JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.2
75-2BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.5
86-2JAX STJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+2.0
96-3JAX STBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.3
107-3BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.7
117-4JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.3
128-4BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Delaney Moon+1.7
138-5JAX STBELLARAttack errLauren Buchanan+1.4
149-5BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.8
159-6JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.4
1610-6BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+1.8
1711-6JAX STJAX STBlockedMady Yadenblk D'Yanna Spicer+2.3
1811-7JAX STBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.4
1911-8BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.0
2012-8BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+2.0
2112-9JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+1.5
2213-9BELLARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+2.0
2314-9JAX STJAX STAttack errErika Smith+2.5
2414-10JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.4
2514-11BELLARBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Abbie Lyttle+2.1
2615-11BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+2.2
2715-12JAX STBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Ava Long+1.6
2816-12BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+2.3
2916-13JAX STBELLAR×3KillMaddie Carnesset Payton Parsons+1.6
3016-14BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Lauren Buchanan+2.4
3116-15BELLARBELLAR×3BlockedLauren Buchananblk Maddie Carnes, Mary Herman+2.6
3217-15BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+2.5
3318-15JAX STJAX STBlockedMady Yadenblk Azavia Thomas, D'Yanna Spicer+3.3
3418-16JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+2.0
3519-16BELLARJAX ST×7KillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+2.8
3620-16JAX STJAX ST×7KillClaire Evans+3.2
3721-16JAX STJAX ST×7Attack errMady Yaden+2.6
3822-16JAX STJAX ST×7KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.8
3923-16JAX STJAX ST×7BlockedMya Whiteblk Azavia Thomas, D'Yanna Spicer+1.0
4024-16JAX STJAX ST×7KillAzavia Thomasset Delaney Moon+0.3
4125-16JAX STJAX ST×7Attack errMary Herman+0.9
Set 5
10-1BELLARBELLARAceBellarmineaced Claire Evans+6.4
20-2BELLARBELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+5.6
31-2BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+4.5
41-3JAX STBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+4.4
51-4BELLARBELLARAceBellarmineaced Delaney Moon+4.9
62-4BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+3.7
72-5JAX STBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+3.9
83-5BELLARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+3.8
93-6JAX STBELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+4.0
104-6BELLARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+3.9
114-7JAX STBELLARServe errJacksonville St.+4.2
125-7BELLARJAX STServe errBellarmine+4.1
135-8JAX STBELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Payton Parsons+4.5
146-8BELLARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+4.2
156-9JAX STBELLARAttack errClaire Evans+4.7
167-9BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+4.3
177-10JAX STBELLAR×5KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+5.0
187-11BELLARBELLAR×5KillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+4.5
197-12BELLARBELLAR×5KillMaddie Carnesset Sofia Varela+2.6
207-13BELLARBELLAR×5KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+1.2
217-14BELLARBELLAR×5AceBellarmineaced Lauren Buchanan+0.4
228-14BELLARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.1
238-15JAX STBELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Jacksonville St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).