FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Marshall def. Bucknell 3–0

(25-19, 31-29, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUCKNL	19	29	21	0
MARSH	25	31	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MARSH above 50 · BUCKNL below

Biggest swing: 3.2% to Bucknell — set 2, BUCKNL 24-23 MARSH. Bad set by Kahea Carvalho. MARSH win probability 95% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUCKNL 6.5%93.5% MARSH

Bucknell wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.9%

Marshall wins

3-0

51.4%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

11.4%

BUCKNL break %: 35.4% vs this opp
MARSH break %: 46.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kahea CarvalhoBad set+3.2%
Bad set by Kahea Carvalho
Set 2 · BUCKNL 24-23 MARSH · BUCKNL 5% → 8%
02
Maddie SmithKill+2.6%
Kill by Maddie Smith (set by Kahea Carvalho)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 29-30 MARSH · MARSH 94% → 97%
03
BUCKNL serverService error+2.3%
Bucknell service error
Set 2 · BUCKNL 24-24 MARSH · MARSH 92% → 94%
04
Sidney ShafferKill+2.3%
Kill by Sidney Shaffer (set by Peyton McGee)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 25-24 MARSH · BUCKNL 6% → 8%
05
Maddie SmithKill+2.3%
Kill by Maddie Smith (set by Isabella Nieves)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 25-25 MARSH · MARSH 92% → 94%
06
Sidney ShafferKill+2.3%
Kill by Sidney Shaffer (set by Peyton McGee)
Set 2 · BUCKNL 26-25 MARSH · BUCKNL 6% → 8%
07
Kaitlyn TaylorAttack error+2.3%
Kaitlyn Taylor stuffed by Beatrice Ciccarelli & Lilly Howell
Set 2 · BUCKNL 26-26 MARSH · MARSH 92% → 94%
08
MARSH serverService error+2.3%
Marshall service error
Set 2 · BUCKNL 27-26 MARSH · BUCKNL 6% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bucknellaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sidney ShafferMB	3	13	0	22	.591	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
22Cameron LloydOH	3	8	1	26	.269	0	1	1	11	0	0	0	9
17Stephanie ErohMB	3	8	0	15	.533	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	9
15Marion HaskellOPP	3	8	3	23	.217	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
2Kaitlyn TaylorOH	3	6	6	29	.000	0	1	1	8	1	1	0.5	7.5
4Peyton McGeeS	3	0	1	2	-.500	38	0	2	6	0	3	1.5	1.5
33Katie O'SullivanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	3	3	12	3	0	0	3
8Emily KearneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
5Isabella CharltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	0
11Emerson BoydOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Klea TarjaOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	11	117	.274	41	5	11	46	5	10	5	69

Marshallhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Maddie SmithOH	3	16	2	28	.500	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	16
11Emma BarnettOH	3	12	6	43	.140	0	1	2	13	1	0	0	13
5Beatrice CiccarelliMB	3	6	2	11	.364	2	1	1	6	0	2	1	8
16Marae ReillyMB	3	7	0	9	.778	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
15Logan HendersonOPP	3	7	2	16	.313	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
23Kahea CarvalhoS	3	0	0	0	–	26	1	1	6	0	0	0	1
10Lilly HowellOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
4Emma SayreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	15	1	0	0	1
14Isabella Nieves	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
Team totals		52	13	116	.336	48	5	6	58	5	6	3	81

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 BUCKNL · MARSH 7

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 7 BUCKNLMARSH 6

Set 2

29-31

Longest run 5 BUCKNLMARSH 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 BUCKNLMARSH 7

Bars above the line = Marshall leads, below = Bucknell leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Bucknell

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	33%4/12
2	39%7/18	53%10/19
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	64%7/11	22%2/9
5	50%7/14	30%3/10
6	54%7/13	22%2/9
All	55%44/80	36%25/70

Marshall

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%9/22	27%3/11
2	80%8/10	53%9/17
3	64%7/11	50%7/14
4	70%7/10	30%3/10
5	70%7/10	36%4/11
6	100%7/7	59%10/17
All	64%45/70	45%36/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

150 rallies

Rally log

#	BUCKNL-MARSH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.6
2	1-1	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.6
3	1-2	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.7
4	2-2	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.6
5	2-3	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.5
6	3-3	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.6
7	4-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+1.0
8	4-4	BUCKNL	MARSH×4	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.6
9	4-5	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+0.8
10	4-6	MARSH	MARSH×4	Ace	MARSH server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+0.7
11	4-7	MARSH	MARSH×4	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+0.6
12	5-7	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.4
13	5-8	BUCKNL	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+0.4
14	5-9	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Peyton McGee	+0.5
15	5-10	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.4
16	6-10	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.2
17	6-11	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.3
18	7-11	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
19	7-12	BUCKNL	MARSH	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd	blk Marae Reilly, Lilly Howell	+0.3
20	7-13	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.3
21	8-13	MARSH	BUCKNL×7	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Sidney Shaffer, Marion Haskell	+0.2
22	9-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Team	+0.3
23	10-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.5
24	11-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Bad set	Kahea Carvalho		+0.7
25	12-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
26	13-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Kill	Cameron Lloyd		+1.3
27	14-13	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×7	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Katie O'Sullivan	+1.5
28	14-14	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+1.0
29	15-14	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+1.2
30	15-15	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
31	16-15	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Logan Henderson		+1.3
32	16-16	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.1
33	17-16	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+1.4
34	17-17	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+1.2
35	18-17	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Lilly Howell	blk Stephanie Eroh, Kaitlyn Taylor	+1.5
36	18-18	BUCKNL	MARSH×6	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+1.3
37	18-19	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+1.8
38	18-20	MARSH	MARSH×6	Bad set	Peyton McGee		+1.5
39	18-21	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Beatrice Ciccarelli	+1.1
40	18-22	MARSH	MARSH×6	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+0.7
41	18-23	MARSH	MARSH×6	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.3
42	19-23	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.1
43	19-24	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+0.2
44	19-25	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.3
2	1-1	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.4
3	2-1	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Emma Sayre	+0.6
4	2-2	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.4
5	2-3	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+0.5
6	3-3	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.4
7	4-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.7
8	4-4	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.4
9	5-4	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.5
10	6-4	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Emma Barnett	+0.8
11	6-5	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+0.5
12	7-5	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Sidney Shaffer, Peyton McGee	+0.6
13	8-5	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
14	8-6	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.5
15	8-7	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Beatrice Ciccarelli	+0.8
16	9-7	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.6
17	9-8	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.5
18	10-8	MARSH	BUCKNL×5	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.7
19	11-8	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×5	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
20	12-8	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×5	Kill	Cameron Lloyd		+1.1
21	13-8	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×5	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Maddie Smith	+1.1
22	14-8	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×5	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
23	14-9	BUCKNL	MARSH×3	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.5
24	14-10	MARSH	MARSH×3	Bad set	Peyton McGee		+0.8
25	14-11	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.9
26	15-11	MARSH	BUCKNL	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+0.9
27	15-12	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.6
28	16-12	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
29	16-13	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+0.6
30	17-13	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
31	17-14	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.6
32	17-15	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Lilly Howell, Beatrice Ciccarelli	+1.1
33	18-15	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+1.0
34	18-16	BUCKNL	MARSH×4	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+0.7
35	18-17	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+1.2
36	18-18	MARSH	MARSH×4	Ace	MARSH server	aced Team	+1.3
37	18-19	MARSH	MARSH×4	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+1.2
38	19-19	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
39	19-20	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.9
40	20-20	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
41	20-21	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.0
42	21-21	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.1
43	21-22	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.1
44	21-23	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+1.4
45	22-23	MARSH	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.7
46	23-23	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Maddie Smith	blk Sidney Shaffer, Peyton McGee	+1.9
47	24-23	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Bad set	Kahea Carvalho		+3.2
48	24-24	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+2.3
49	25-24	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+2.3
50	25-25	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+2.3
51	26-25	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+2.3
52	26-26	BUCKNL	MARSH	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Lilly Howell	+2.3
53	27-26	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+2.3
54	27-27	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+2.3
55	28-27	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+2.3
56	28-28	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.3
57	29-28	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+2.3
58	29-29	BUCKNL	MARSH×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+2.3
59	29-30	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.6
60	29-31	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.2
2	1-1	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.2
3	2-1	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
4	2-2	BUCKNL	MARSH×3	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.2
5	2-3	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Peyton McGee		+0.2
6	2-4	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.2
7	3-4	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
8	3-5	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
9	4-5	MARSH	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
10	5-5	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.3
11	6-5	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.3
12	6-6	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.2
13	6-7	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Emma Sayre	+0.3
14	7-7	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.2
15	7-8	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.2
16	7-9	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Lilly Howell	set Isabella Nieves	+0.2
17	8-9	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.2
18	8-10	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+0.2
19	8-11	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+0.2
20	9-11	MARSH	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
21	10-11	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Maddie Smith	+0.3
22	11-11	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.3
23	12-11	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Logan Henderson		+0.4
24	12-12	BUCKNL	MARSH×7	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.3
25	12-13	MARSH	MARSH×7	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.3
26	12-14	MARSH	MARSH×7	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.3
27	12-15	MARSH	MARSH×7	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.2
28	12-16	MARSH	MARSH×7	Ace	MARSH server	aced Kaitlyn Taylor	+0.2
29	12-17	MARSH	MARSH×7	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+0.1
30	12-18	MARSH	MARSH×7	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
31	13-18	MARSH	BUCKNL	Serve err	MARSH server		+0.0
32	14-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+0.1
33	14-19	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
34	14-20	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.1
35	15-20	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
36	15-21	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
37	16-21	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
38	16-22	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+0.0
39	17-22	MARSH	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Stephanie Eroh, Peyton McGee	+0.0
40	18-22	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Katie O'Sullivan	+0.1
41	19-22	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+0.1
42	19-23	BUCKNL	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+0.1
43	20-23	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+0.1
44	20-24	BUCKNL	MARSH	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+0.1
45	21-24	MARSH	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.0
46	21-25	BUCKNL	MARSH	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Bucknell first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.