FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeSUN-BELT

Ohio def. Marshall 3–0

(27-25, 25-16, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OHIO	27	25	25	3
MARSH	25	16	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MARSH above 50 · OHIO below

Biggest swing: 10.3% to Ohio — set 1, OHIO 27-25 MARSH. Logan Henderson stuffed by Torre Kildow. MARSH win probability 43% → 32%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OHIO 49.0%51.0% MARSH

Ohio wins

3-0

12.1%

3-1

18.3%

3-2

18.6%

Marshall wins

3-0

12.9%

3-1

19.2%

3-2

18.9%

OHIO break %: 40.2% vs this opp
MARSH break %: 40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Logan HendersonAttack error+10.3%
Logan Henderson stuffed by Torre Kildow
Set 1 · OHIO 27-25 MARSH · OHIO 57% → 68%
02
OHIO serverAce+10.2%
Ohio ace on Emma Barnett
Set 1 · OHIO 26-25 MARSH · OHIO 47% → 57%
03
Logan HendersonKill+8.2%
Kill by Logan Henderson (set by Kahea Carvalho)
Set 1 · OHIO 22-23 MARSH · MARSH 50% → 58%
04
Bailey BlairKill+7.0%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 22-21 MARSH · OHIO 48% → 55%
05
Emma BarnettKill+6.9%
Kill by Emma Barnett (set by Kahea Carvalho)
Set 1 · OHIO 23-24 MARSH · MARSH 53% → 60%
06
Beatrice CiccarelliAttack error+6.9%
Attack error by Beatrice Ciccarelli
Set 1 · OHIO 24-24 MARSH · OHIO 40% → 47%
07
Beatrice CiccarelliKill+6.9%
Kill by Beatrice Ciccarelli (set by Kahea Carvalho)
Set 1 · OHIO 24-25 MARSH · MARSH 53% → 60%
08
Bailey BlairKill+6.9%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 25-25 MARSH · OHIO 40% → 47%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	14	4	28	.357	2	1	2	10	0	0	3	1.5	16.5
7Rose MahinOH	3	14	2	22	.545	3	1	2	13	2	0	0	0	15
4Torre KildowOH	3	10	4	23	.261	2	0	1	7	2	1	1	1.5	11.5
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	8	3	16	.313	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	3.5	11.5
11Emily WaddellMB	3	6	1	15	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
10Rowan KellyS	3	3	0	5	.600	42	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	14	109	.376	51	3	7	46	4	3	10	8	77

Marshallhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Emma BarnettOH	3	10	4	30	.200	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10
5Beatrice CiccarelliMB	3	7	2	14	.357	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
20Maddie SmithOH	3	5	4	20	.050	0	0	0	10	1	0	0	5
15Logan HendersonOPP	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5
16Marae ReillyMB	3	4	2	13	.154	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4
23Kahea CarvalhoS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
4Emma SayreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	0	10	0	0	0	3
14Isabella Nieves	2	0	0	1	.000	8	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
10Lilly HowellOH	2	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Carys KerrOH	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
13Maya HuntS	1	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	15	99	.182	32	4	1	35	3	2	1	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 OHIO · MARSH 7

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 3 OHIOMARSH 7

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 6 OHIOMARSH 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 3 OHIOMARSH 2

Bars above the line = Marshall leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	45%5/11
2	67%8/12	38%5/13
3	64%7/11	46%6/13
4	100%6/6	45%5/11
5	86%6/7	57%8/14
6	46%6/13	54%7/13
All	68%41/60	48%36/75

Marshall

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	27%3/11
2	64%7/11	27%3/11
3	50%6/12	22%2/9
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	38%6/16	14%1/7
6	60%6/10	54%7/13
All	52%39/75	32%19/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	OHIO-MARSH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
2	2-0	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Maddie Smith	+2.6
3	3-0	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.5
4	3-1	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.6
5	4-1	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.7
6	5-1	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.4
7	5-2	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.4
8	5-3	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+2.4
9	6-3	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Bailey Blair	+1.8
10	6-4	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.7
11	7-4	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
12	8-4	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Bailey Blair	+2.5
13	8-5	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.5
14	9-5	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.7
15	10-5	OHIO	OHIO	Bad set	Isabella Nieves		+2.2
16	10-6	OHIO	MARSH×7	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+1.2
17	10-7	MARSH	MARSH×7	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+2.2
18	10-8	MARSH	MARSH×7	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+2.6
19	10-9	MARSH	MARSH×7	Ace	MARSH server	aced Torre Kildow	+3.0
20	10-10	MARSH	MARSH×7	Ace	MARSH server	aced Rose Mahin	+3.3
21	10-11	MARSH	MARSH×7	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Lilly Howell	+3.4
22	10-12	MARSH	MARSH×7	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+3.3
23	11-12	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.1
24	11-13	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+2.3
25	12-13	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
26	13-13	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner	+3.6
27	13-14	OHIO	MARSH×3	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+2.6
28	13-15	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+3.8
29	13-16	MARSH	MARSH×3	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+3.4
30	14-16	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
31	15-16	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+3.6
32	15-17	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Emma Sayre	+2.8
33	16-17	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+2.5
34	16-18	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.9
35	17-18	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rose Mahin	+2.6
36	18-18	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+4.6
37	18-19	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Isabella Nieves	+3.4
38	19-19	MARSH	OHIO	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell	+3.4
39	20-19	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+5.5
40	20-20	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+3.7
41	20-21	MARSH	MARSH	Ace	MARSH server	aced Torre Kildow	+6.1
42	21-21	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+4.0
43	22-21	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+7.0
44	22-22	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Isabella Nieves	+4.5
45	22-23	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+8.2
46	23-23	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+5.2
47	23-24	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+6.9
48	24-24	MARSH	OHIO	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli		+6.9
49	24-25	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+6.9
50	25-25	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+6.9
51	26-25	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Emma Barnett	+10.2
52	27-25	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Logan Henderson	blk Torre Kildow	+10.3
Set 2
1	1-0	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.6
2	1-1	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.8
3	2-1	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
4	2-2	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.8
5	2-3	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.7
6	3-3	MARSH	OHIO	Serve err	MARSH server		+1.8
7	3-4	OHIO	MARSH×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+1.9
8	3-5	MARSH	MARSH×3	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+2.8
9	3-6	MARSH	MARSH×3	Ace	MARSH server	aced Rose Mahin	+2.7
10	4-6	MARSH	OHIO	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+1.7
11	4-7	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+1.8
12	5-7	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+1.7
13	5-8	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+1.9
14	6-8	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.7
15	7-8	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Isabella Nieves	+2.9
16	8-8	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Torre Kildow	+3.1
17	8-9	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Isabella Nieves	+2.2
18	9-9	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
19	9-10	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+2.2
20	10-10	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.2
21	10-11	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.3
22	11-11	MARSH	OHIO×3	Attack err	Marae Reilly	blk Olivia Gardner	+2.3
23	12-11	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+3.6
24	13-11	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+3.5
25	13-12	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.2
26	13-13	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Isabella Nieves	+3.7
27	14-13	MARSH	OHIO	Attack err	Maddie Smith	blk Emily Waddell, Bailey Blair	+2.6
28	15-13	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Maddie Smith		+3.8
29	15-14	OHIO	MARSH	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+2.4
30	16-14	MARSH	OHIO×6	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rose Mahin	+2.7
31	17-14	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lacy Marx	+3.7
32	18-14	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Emma Barnett		+3.0
33	19-14	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+2.3
34	20-14	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Torre Kildow	+1.5
35	21-14	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+0.8
36	21-15	OHIO	MARSH	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.2
37	22-15	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
38	22-16	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Beatrice Ciccarelli	+0.2
39	23-16	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.3
40	24-16	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair		+0.1
41	25-16	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Emma Barnett	blk Olivia Gardner, Bailey Blair	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Olivia Gardner		+1.8
2	1-1	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.2
3	2-1	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Logan Henderson	blk Olivia Gardner, Torre Kildow	+1.9
4	2-2	OHIO	MARSH	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+1.2
5	3-2	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.3
6	3-3	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.3
7	4-3	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rose Mahin	+1.3
8	5-3	OHIO	OHIO	Bad set	Kahea Carvalho		+1.9
9	5-4	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.2
10	6-4	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+1.3
11	6-5	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Maya Hunt	+1.3
12	7-5	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.4
13	8-5	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Carys Kerr		+1.9
14	9-5	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Marae Reilly		+1.8
15	9-6	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Marae Reilly	set Maya Hunt	+1.0
16	10-6	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+1.2
17	10-7	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Beatrice Ciccarelli	set Maya Hunt	+1.0
18	10-8	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Maddie Smith	set Kahea Carvalho	+1.8
19	11-8	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.4
20	11-9	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.3
21	12-9	MARSH	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+1.4
22	13-9	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Team	+1.9
23	14-9	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.6
24	14-10	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.8
25	15-10	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+1.1
26	16-10	OHIO	OHIO	Bad set	Kahea Carvalho		+1.2
27	16-11	OHIO	MARSH	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.6
28	17-11	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
29	18-11	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
30	18-12	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Maya Hunt	+0.3
31	18-13	MARSH	MARSH	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.7
32	19-13	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Emma Sayre	+0.7
33	20-13	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
34	20-14	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Carys Kerr	set Maya Hunt	+0.2
35	21-14	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
36	22-14	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Beatrice Ciccarelli	blk Olivia Gardner	+0.2
37	22-15	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Carys Kerr	set Maya Hunt	+0.1
38	23-15	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
39	24-15	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
40	24-16	OHIO	MARSH	Kill	Logan Henderson	set Kahea Carvalho	+0.0
41	24-17	MARSH	MARSH	Kill	Emma Barnett	set Emma Sayre	+0.0
42	25-17	MARSH	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.