FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

Ohio def. Marshall 3–0

Ohio won at Marshall 3-0 (27-25, 25-16, 25-17) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026. Ohio's Bailey Blair and Rose Mahin led with 14 kills each.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set123Sets
OHIO2725253
MARSH2516170

Win probability

Marshall above 50 · Ohio below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+10.6% OHIOrally 135 · set 3

Biggest swing: 10.6% to Ohio — set 1, OHIO 27-25 MARSH. Logan Henderson stuffed by Torre Kildow. MARSH win probability 57% → 46%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

OHIO 33.1%66.9% MARSH

Ohio wins

3-0
6.6%
3-1
11.8%
3-2
14.7%

Marshall wins

3-0
21.2%
3-1
25.7%
3-2
20.0%
OHIO break %
38.8% vs this opp
MARSH break %
42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Torre KildowBlock+10.6%

    Logan Henderson stuffed by Torre Kildow

    Set 1 · OHIO 27-25 MARSH · OHIO 43% → 54%

  2. 02
    OhioAce+9.7%

    Ohio ace on Emma Barnett

    Set 1 · OHIO 26-25 MARSH · OHIO 33% → 43%

  3. 03

    Kill by Logan Henderson (set by Kahea Carvalho)

    Set 1 · OHIO 22-23 MARSH · MARSH 64% → 72%

  4. 04
    Bailey BlairKill+6.6%

    Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 1 · OHIO 22-21 MARSH · OHIO 33% → 40%

  5. 05
    Emma BarnettKill+6.2%

    Kill by Emma Barnett (set by Kahea Carvalho)

    Set 1 · OHIO 23-24 MARSH · MARSH 67% → 73%

  6. 06
    Beatrice CiccarelliAttack error+6.2%

    Attack error by Beatrice Ciccarelli

    Set 1 · OHIO 24-24 MARSH · OHIO 27% → 33%

  7. 07

    Kill by Beatrice Ciccarelli (set by Kahea Carvalho)

    Set 1 · OHIO 24-25 MARSH · MARSH 67% → 73%

  8. 08
    Bailey BlairKill+6.2%

    Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 1 · OHIO 25-25 MARSH · OHIO 27% → 33%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ohioaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314428.357212100031.516.5
314222.54531213200015
310423.26120172111.511.5
38316.31300010233.511.5
36115.333000100217
3305.600420050010.53.5
22Lacy MarxL/DS
3000–211900001
3000–001000000
Team totals5514109.3765137464310877
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310430.2000003100010
37214.35710100010.57.5
35420.0500001010005
35213.231000300005
34213.154000300004
3000–1500200000
3000–2301000003
2001.000810300001
2003.00000010010.50.5
1215.200000000002
1000–600000000
Team totals331599.182324135302158

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 OHIO · MARSH 7

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 3 OHIOMARSH 7

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 6 OHIOMARSH 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 3 OHIOMARSH 2

Bars above the line = Marshall leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Ohio

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
45%5/11
2
67%8/12
38%5/13
3
64%7/11
46%6/13
4
100%6/6
45%5/11
5
86%6/7
57%8/14
6
46%6/13
54%7/13
All
68%41/60
48%36/75

Marshall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
27%3/11
2
64%7/11
27%3/11
3
50%6/12
22%2/9
4
60%6/10
33%3/9
5
38%6/16
14%1/7
6
60%6/10
54%7/13
All
52%39/75
32%19/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#OHIO-MARSHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MARSHOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.7
22-0OHIOOHIO×3AceOhioaced Maddie Smith+2.5
33-0OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.5
43-1OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+1.6
54-1MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.8
65-1OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.5
75-2OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+1.5
85-3MARSHMARSHAttack errEmily Waddell+2.4
96-3MARSHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Bailey Blair+1.8
106-4OHIOMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+1.6
117-4MARSHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.9
128-4OHIOOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Bailey Blair+2.6
138-5OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+1.5
149-5MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.8
1510-5OHIOOHIOBad setIsabella Nieves+2.4
1610-6OHIOMARSH×7KillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+1.3
1710-7MARSHMARSH×7Attack errTorre Kildow+2.3
1810-8MARSHMARSH×7Attack errBailey Blair+2.6
1910-9MARSHMARSH×7AceMarshallaced Torre Kildow+2.9
2010-10MARSHMARSH×7AceMarshallaced Rose Mahin+3.0
2110-11MARSHMARSH×7BlockedRose Mahinblk Beatrice Ciccarelli, Lilly Howell+3.0
2210-12MARSHMARSH×7Attack errOlivia Gardner+2.9
2311-12MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.9
2411-13OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Isabella Nieves+2.0
2512-13MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.9
2613-13OHIOOHIOBlockedEmma Barnettblk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner+3.3
2713-14OHIOMARSH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+2.3
2813-15MARSHMARSH×3Attack errOlivia Gardner+3.2
2913-16MARSHMARSH×3KillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+2.8
3014-16MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.7
3115-16OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+3.1
3215-17OHIOMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Emma Sayre+2.4
3316-17MARSHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.2
3416-18OHIOMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Kahea Carvalho+2.5
3517-18MARSHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rose Mahin+2.3
3618-18OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+4.2
3718-19OHIOMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Isabella Nieves+3.1
3819-19MARSHOHIOBlockedEmma Barnettblk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell+3.1
3920-19OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+5.3
4020-20OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+3.4
4120-21MARSHMARSHAceMarshallaced Torre Kildow+5.5
4221-21MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+3.7
4322-21OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+6.6
4422-22OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Isabella Nieves+4.2
4522-23MARSHMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+7.4
4623-23MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+4.8
4723-24OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+6.2
4824-24MARSHOHIOAttack errBeatrice Ciccarelli+6.2
4924-25OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+6.2
5025-25MARSHOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+6.2
5126-25OHIOOHIO×3AceOhioaced Emma Barnett+9.7
5227-25OHIOOHIO×3BlockedLogan Hendersonblk Torre Kildow+10.6
Set 2
11-0OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.0
21-1OHIOMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
32-1MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.1
42-2OHIOMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.0
52-3MARSHMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho+2.9
63-3MARSHOHIOServe errBeatrice Ciccarelli+2.0
73-4OHIOMARSH×3Attack errBailey Blair+2.0
83-5MARSHMARSH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+2.9
93-6MARSHMARSH×3AceMarshallaced Rose Mahin+2.6
104-6MARSHOHIOAttack errMaddie Smith+1.7
114-7OHIOMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+1.8
125-7MARSHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.7
135-8OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+1.8
146-8MARSHOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.8
157-8OHIOOHIO×3KillRowan Kellyset Isabella Nieves+3.0
168-8OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Torre Kildow+3.4
178-9OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Isabella Nieves+2.3
189-9MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.4
199-10OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+2.4
2010-10MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.5
2110-11OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+2.5
2211-11MARSHOHIO×3BlockedMarae Reillyblk Olivia Gardner+2.6
2312-11OHIOOHIO×3KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+4.1
2413-11OHIOOHIO×3Attack errMaddie Smith+4.2
2513-12OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+2.6
2613-13MARSHMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Isabella Nieves+4.1
2714-13MARSHOHIOBlockedMaddie Smithblk Emily Waddell, Bailey Blair+3.0
2815-13OHIOOHIOAttack errMaddie Smith+4.6
2915-14OHIOMARSHAttack errBailey Blair+2.8
3016-14MARSHOHIO×6KillTorre Kildowset Rose Mahin+3.3
3117-14OHIOOHIO×6KillRose Mahinset Lacy Marx+4.5
3218-14OHIOOHIO×6Attack errEmma Barnett+3.9
3319-14OHIOOHIO×6KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+3.1
3420-14OHIOOHIO×6KillRose Mahinset Torre Kildow+2.1
3521-14OHIOOHIO×6KillRowan Kellyset Lacy Marx+1.2
3621-15OHIOMARSHAttack errRose Mahin+0.3
3722-15MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.7
3822-16OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Beatrice Ciccarelli+0.2
3923-16MARSHOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.5
4024-16OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blair+0.2
4125-16OHIOOHIO×3BlockedEmma Barnettblk Olivia Gardner, Bailey Blair·
Set 3
10-1MARSHMARSHAttack errOlivia Gardner+2.3
21-1MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.6
32-1OHIOOHIOBlockedLogan Hendersonblk Olivia Gardner, Torre Kildow+2.5
42-2OHIOMARSHAttack errTorre Kildow+1.6
53-2MARSHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.7
63-3OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Kahea Carvalho+1.7
74-3MARSHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rose Mahin+1.8
85-3OHIOOHIOBad setKahea Carvalho+2.7
95-4OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+1.7
106-4MARSHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.9
116-5OHIOMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Maya Hunt+1.7
127-5MARSHOHIO×3KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.9
138-5OHIOOHIO×3Attack errCarys Kerr+2.8
149-5OHIOOHIO×3Attack errMarae Reilly+2.7
159-6OHIOMARSHKillMarae Reillyset Maya Hunt+1.5
1610-6MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.9
1710-7OHIOMARSHKillBeatrice Ciccarelliset Maya Hunt+1.6
1810-8MARSHMARSHKillMaddie Smithset Kahea Carvalho+2.6
1911-8MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.1
2011-9OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+1.8
2112-9MARSHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.2
2213-9OHIOOHIO×3AceOhio+2.9
2314-9OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.5
2414-10OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Kahea Carvalho+1.3
2515-10MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.8
2616-10OHIOOHIOBad setKahea Carvalho+2.0
2716-11OHIOMARSHServe errOhio+0.9
2817-11MARSHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.4
2918-11OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.4
3018-12OHIOMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Maya Hunt+0.5
3118-13MARSHMARSHAttack errBailey Blair+1.2
3219-13MARSHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Emma Sayre+1.2
3320-13OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.1
3420-14OHIOMARSHKillCarys Kerrset Maya Hunt+0.4
3521-14MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+0.7
3622-14OHIOOHIOBlockedBeatrice Ciccarelliblk Olivia Gardner+0.4
3722-15OHIOMARSHKillCarys Kerrset Maya Hunt+0.1
3823-15MARSHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+0.2
3924-15OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.1
4024-16OHIOMARSHKillLogan Hendersonset Kahea Carvalho·
4124-17MARSHMARSHKillEmma Barnettset Emma Sayre·
4225-17MARSHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly·

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).