Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

Duke def. North Florida 3–1

Duke won at North Florida 3-1 (25-17, 22-25, 25-20, 25-23) on Fri, Sep 4, 2026. Duke's Nataly Moravec led with 20 kills, and Mailinh Godschall added 10 digs.

Data through · final Sep 4

Set1234Sets
DUKE252225253
NO FLA172520231

Win probability

North Florida above 50 · Duke below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.1% DUKErally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.1% to Duke — set 4, DUKE 24-23 NO FLA. Attack error by Dakota Spurrier. NO FLA win probability 19% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DUKE 73.9%26.1% NO FLA

Duke wins

3-0
26.2%
3-1
28.3%
3-2
19.5%

North Florida wins

3-0
4.7%
3-1
9.0%
3-2
12.4%
DUKE break %
42.4% vs this opp
NO FLA break %
37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Dakota SpurrierAttack error+10.1%

    Attack error by Dakota Spurrier

    Set 4 · DUKE 24-23 NO FLA · DUKE 81% → 91%

  2. 02
    Avery HamlinKill+9.0%

    Kill by Avery Hamlin (set by Nikki Quinn)

    Set 4 · DUKE 25-23 NO FLA · DUKE 91% → 100%

  3. 03

    Dakota Spurrier stuffed by Avery Hamlin & Breonna Goss

    Set 4 · DUKE 22-22 NO FLA · DUKE 74% → 81%

  4. 04
    DukeService error+6.0%

    Duke service error

    Set 4 · DUKE 22-23 NO FLA · NO FLA 19% → 25%

  5. 05

    Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Avery Hamlin)

    Set 4 · DUKE 23-23 NO FLA · DUKE 75% → 81%

  6. 06
    DukeAce+5.2%

    Duke ace on Dakota Spurrier

    Set 4 · DUKE 21-22 NO FLA · DUKE 69% → 74%

  7. 07

    Ashby Zubchevich stuffed by Haleina Bowers & Sofia Dawson

    Set 3 · DUKE 17-16 NO FLA · NO FLA 24% → 28%

  8. 08
    Nataly MoravecAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Nataly Moravec

    Set 4 · DUKE 13-16 NO FLA · NO FLA 23% → 27%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Dukeaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420445.35621161111.522.5
411529.20712581031.514.5
410326.26912150052.514.5
49220.3500000002110
4319.22201240073.57.5
43031.0004425900005
4001.0004341000003
4000–100200000
3022-1.000000000000
Team totals5617135.2895311184421181097
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416643.2331116000017
410430.2001009100010
45312.167000401227
4407.5713611800216
4227.000001101013
4011-1.000201710000
410317.4120036000010
4000–401630000
2113.000000000001
2000–001000000
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4820120.2334429471124485

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DUKE · NO FLA 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 DUKENO FLA 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 DUKENO FLA 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 DUKENO FLA 2

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 DUKENO FLA 4

Bars above the line = North Florida leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Duke

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
40%6/15
2
61%11/18
48%10/21
3
45%9/20
52%11/21
4
90%9/10
25%3/12
5
73%8/11
27%3/11
6
67%8/12
50%8/16
All
65%56/86
43%41/96

North Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
31%4/13
2
55%11/20
35%6/17
3
56%10/18
31%5/16
4
67%8/12
50%9/18
5
67%8/12
20%2/10
6
54%7/13
33%4/12
All
57%55/96
35%30/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#DUKE-NO FLASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.3
22-0DUKEDUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.9
32-1DUKENO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.3
42-2NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Julianna Santiago+2.1
52-3NO FLANO FLA×4KillSofia Dawsonset Julianna Santiago+2.3
62-4NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctor+2.5
73-4NO FLADUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.5
84-4DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.3
95-4DUKEDUKE×3BlockedKaili Doctorblk Avery Hamlin, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux+2.3
105-5DUKENO FLABlockedZoe Gillen-Malveauxblk Yarimar Francis Garay+1.6
116-5NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.5
126-6DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.6
137-6NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.6
148-6DUKEDUKEKillNikki Quinnset Kyndal Ganoe+2.2
158-7DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.5
168-8NO FLANO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.5
179-8NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
189-9DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.8
1910-9NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.7
2011-9DUKEDUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+2.5
2111-10DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.6
2212-10NO FLADUKE×5KillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.7
2313-10DUKEDUKE×5Attack errJulianna Santiago+2.3
2414-10DUKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.9
2515-10DUKEDUKE×5KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2616-10DUKEDUKE×5AceDukeaced Julianna Santiago+1.0
2716-11DUKENO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+0.5
2817-11NO FLADUKEBlockedKaili Doctorblk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss+0.6
2917-12DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.4
3017-13NO FLANO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+1.0
3118-13NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.9
3219-13DUKEDUKEAceDuke+0.9
3319-14DUKENO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+0.4
3420-14NO FLADUKEBlockedYarimar Francis Garayblk Nataly Moravec+0.5
3520-15DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+0.3
3621-15NO FLADUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+0.5
3722-15DUKEDUKE×4BlockedSasha Bespalyblk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich+0.3
3823-15DUKEDUKE×4KillNikki Quinnset Ashby Zubchevich+0.1
3924-15DUKEDUKE×4KillAshby Zubchevich·
4024-16DUKENO FLAServe errDuke·
4124-17NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson·
4225-17NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida·
Set 2
11-0DUKEDUKEAttack errYarimar Francis Garay+1.6
22-0DUKEDUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.5
32-1DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.0
43-1NO FLADUKEKillBreonna Gossset Nikki Quinn+1.0
53-2DUKENO FLA×3Serve errDuke+1.0
63-3NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errAvery Hamlin+1.7
73-4NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errBreonna Goss+1.9
84-4NO FLADUKEBlockedHaleina Bowersblk Breonna Goss, Nataly Moravec+1.2
94-5DUKENO FLA×4Serve errDuke+1.3
104-6NO FLANO FLA×4KillSofia Dawsonset Emma Pohlmann+2.1
114-7NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.1
124-8NO FLANO FLA×4KillHaleina Bowers+2.1
135-8NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.2
146-8DUKEDUKEAceDuke+1.9
156-9DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
166-10NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctor+2.1
177-10NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.2
187-11DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
198-11NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.2
209-11DUKEDUKEAceDuke+2.1
219-12DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.6
229-13NO FLANO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Emma Pohlmann+2.3
2310-13NO FLADUKEBlockedLeah McDonaldblk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss+1.2
2411-13DUKEDUKEBlockedDakota Spurrierblk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss+2.2
2511-14DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.7
2612-14NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.4
2712-15DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+1.8
2813-15NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nataly Moravec+1.5
2913-16DUKENO FLAAttack errZoe Gillen-Malveaux+1.9
3014-16NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.5
3114-17DUKENO FLAKillSofia Dawsonset Dakota Spurrier+2.0
3215-17NO FLADUKEAttack errKaili Doctor+1.5
3315-18DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+2.0
3415-19NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Emma Pohlmann+2.6
3516-19NO FLADUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.2
3617-19DUKEDUKE×3Attack errLeah McDonald+2.4
3718-19DUKEDUKE×3Attack errKaili Doctor+3.0
3818-20DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Emma Pohlmann+2.6
3918-21NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Nataly Moravec+3.4
4019-21NO FLADUKEKillNikki Quinnset Nataly Moravec+1.5
4119-22DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.4
4220-22NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+1.5
4320-23DUKENO FLAAttack errNataly Moravec+2.5
4421-23NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.3
4522-23DUKEDUKEAttack errDakota Spurrier+3.5
4622-24DUKENO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+4.1
4722-25NO FLANO FLAAttack errNataly Moravec+3.5
Set 3
10-1NO FLANO FLABlockedAvery Hamlinblk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson+3.2
20-2NO FLANO FLAAttack errAshby Zubchevich+3.4
31-2NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.1
41-3DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+2.4
52-3NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.2
63-3DUKEDUKEAttack errKaili Doctor+3.3
73-4DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.4
84-4NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+2.2
95-4DUKEDUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+3.3
105-5DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.3
116-5NO FLADUKE×3KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.2
127-5DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Emma Pohlmann+3.2
138-5DUKEDUKE×3KillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+2.8
148-6DUKENO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.8
159-6NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.9
1610-6DUKEDUKEAceDuke+2.5
1710-7DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.5
1811-7NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.6
1911-8DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.5
2012-8NO FLADUKEAttack errHaleina Bowers+1.7
2113-8DUKEDUKEBlockedKaili Doctorblk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin+2.0
2213-9DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.1
2313-10NO FLANO FLAKillSofia Dawsonset Nataly Moravec+2.2
2414-10NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+1.7
2514-11DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
2614-12NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Ashby Zubchevich+3.0
2715-12NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.3
2815-13DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.0
2916-13NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Mailinh Godschall+2.3
3016-14DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.1
3117-14NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.4
3217-15DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+2.1
3317-16NO FLANO FLABlockedAshby Zubchevichblk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson+4.2
3418-16NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+3.2
3519-16DUKEDUKEAceDuke+4.0
3619-17DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+2.2
3720-17NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Mailinh Godschall+2.7
3820-18DUKENO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.2
3921-18NO FLADUKE×3Attack errKaili Doctor+2.9
4022-18DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.9
4123-18DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.4
4223-19DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+0.4
4324-19NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+0.7
4424-20DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+0.2
4525-20NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+0.4
Set 4
10-1DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+1.8
20-2NO FLANO FLAAttack errAvery Hamlin+2.8
31-2NO FLADUKE×3Serve errNorth Florida+1.7
42-2DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.7
53-2DUKEDUKE×3KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.6
63-3DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+1.8
74-3NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+1.7
85-3DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Emma Pohlmann+2.5
95-4DUKENO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.6
105-5NO FLANO FLA×4KillLeah McDonaldset Kaili Doctor+2.8
115-6NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.0
125-7NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.2
136-7NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+2.0
146-8DUKENO FLABlockedCarlyle Johnsonblk Haleina Bowers+2.2
157-8NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+2.0
167-9DUKENO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.3
178-9NO FLADUKEBlockedLeah McDonaldblk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Ashby Zubchevich+2.1
188-10DUKENO FLAAttack errAshby Zubchevich+2.4
199-10NO FLADUKEServe errNorth Florida+2.1
209-11DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+2.5
219-12NO FLANO FLAAttack errAshby Zubchevich+3.6
2210-12NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+2.1
2310-13DUKENO FLAAttack errNataly Moravec+2.5
2410-14NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+3.5
2511-14NO FLADUKE×3Serve errNorth Florida+1.8
2612-14DUKEDUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+3.3
2713-14DUKEDUKE×3KillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+3.7
2813-15DUKENO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.9
2913-16NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errNataly Moravec+4.2
3013-17NO FLANO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.7
3114-17NO FLADUKEKillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+1.8
3214-18DUKENO FLAAttack errCarlyle Johnson+2.6
3315-18NO FLADUKEKillNataly Moravecset Nikki Quinn+1.8
3415-19DUKENO FLAAttack errAshby Zubchevich+2.6
3515-20NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.9
3616-20NO FLADUKEKillZoe Gillen-Malveauxset Nikki Quinn+1.1
3717-20DUKEDUKEAceDukeaced Emma Pohlmann+2.6
3817-21DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.7
3918-21NO FLADUKEKillAshby Zubchevichset Nikki Quinn+1.5
4019-21DUKEDUKEAceDuke+3.6
4119-22DUKENO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+3.7
4220-22NO FLADUKE×3Attack errHaleina Bowers+2.2
4321-22DUKEDUKE×3AceDukeaced Dakota Spurrier+5.2
4422-22DUKEDUKE×3BlockedDakota Spurrierblk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss+7.1
4522-23DUKENO FLAServe errDuke+6.0
4623-23NO FLADUKE×3KillNataly Moravecset Avery Hamlin+5.5
4724-23DUKEDUKE×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+10.1
4825-23DUKEDUKE×3KillAvery Hamlinset Nikki Quinn+9.0

Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).