Duke def. North Florida 3–1
(25-17, 22-25, 25-20, 25-23)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 25 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| NO FLA | 17 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 1 |
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 9.0% to Duke — set 4, DUKE 24-23 NO FLA. Attack error by Dakota Spurrier. NO FLA win probability 17% → 8%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Duke wins
North Florida wins
- DUKE break %
- 43.7% vs this opp
- NO FLA break %
- 37.3% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Dakota SpurrierAttack error+9.0%
Attack error by Dakota Spurrier
Set 4 · DUKE 24-23 NO FLA · DUKE 83% → 92%
- 02Avery HamlinKill+7.7%
Kill by Avery Hamlin (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 4 · DUKE 25-23 NO FLA · DUKE 92% → 100%
- 03Dakota SpurrierAttack error+6.5%
Dakota Spurrier stuffed by Avery Hamlin & Breonna Goss
Set 4 · DUKE 22-22 NO FLA · DUKE 77% → 84%
- 04DUKE serverService error+5.6%
Duke service error
Set 4 · DUKE 22-23 NO FLA · NO FLA 16% → 22%
- 05Nataly MoravecKill+5.1%
Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Avery Hamlin)
Set 4 · DUKE 23-23 NO FLA · DUKE 78% → 83%
- 06DUKE serverAce+4.9%
Duke ace on Dakota Spurrier
Set 4 · DUKE 21-22 NO FLA · DUKE 72% → 77%
- 07Nataly MoravecAttack error+3.9%
Attack error by Nataly Moravec
Set 4 · DUKE 13-16 NO FLA · NO FLA 20% → 24%
- 08Ashby ZubchevichAttack error+3.8%
Ashby Zubchevich stuffed by Haleina Bowers & Sofia Dawson
Set 3 · DUKE 17-16 NO FLA · NO FLA 20% → 24%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 20 | 4 | 45 | .356 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 22.5 | |
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 29 | .207 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 14.5 | |
| 4 | 10 | 3 | 26 | .269 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 14.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 20 | .350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | .222 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.5 | 7.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1.000 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 56 | 17 | 135 | .289 | 53 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 97 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 16 | 6 | 43 | .233 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
| 4 | 10 | 4 | 30 | .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | .167 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | .571 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 10 | 3 | 17 | .412 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 48 | 20 | 120 | .233 | 44 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 85 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
25-17
Set 2
22-25
Set 3
25-20
Set 4
25-23
Bars above the line = North Florida leads, below = Duke leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Duke
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73%11/15 | 40%6/15 |
| 2 | 61%11/18 | 48%10/21 |
| 3 | 45%9/20 | 52%11/21 |
| 4 | 90%9/10 | 25%3/12 |
| 5 | 73%8/11 | 27%3/11 |
| 6 | 67%8/12 | 50%8/16 |
| All | 65%56/86 | 43%41/96 |
North Florida
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52%11/21 | 31%4/13 |
| 2 | 55%11/20 | 35%6/17 |
| 3 | 56%10/18 | 31%5/16 |
| 4 | 67%8/12 | 50%9/18 |
| 5 | 67%8/12 | 20%2/10 |
| 6 | 54%7/13 | 33%4/12 |
| All | 57%55/96 | 35%30/86 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
182 rallies
Rally log
| # | DUKE-NO FLA | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 2 | 2-0 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +1.6 |
| 3 | 2-1 | DUKE | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +1.1 |
| 4 | 2-2 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Julianna Santiago | +1.8 |
| 5 | 2-3 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Sofia Dawson | set Julianna Santiago | +2.0 |
| 6 | 2-4 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | +2.2 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 8 | 4-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 9 | 5-4 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | blk Avery Hamlin, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +1.9 |
| 10 | 5-5 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | blk Yarimar Francis Garay | +1.4 |
| 11 | 6-5 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.4 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 14 | 8-6 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Nikki Quinn | set Kyndal Ganoe | +1.9 |
| 15 | 8-7 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +1.3 |
| 16 | 8-8 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +2.2 |
| 17 | 9-8 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 18 | 9-9 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.6 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.5 |
| 20 | 11-9 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Mailinh Godschall | +2.1 |
| 21 | 11-10 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.4 | |
| 22 | 12-10 | NO FLA | DUKE×5 | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Attack err | Julianna Santiago | +1.9 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.5 |
| 25 | 15-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 26 | 16-10 | DUKE | DUKE×5 | Ace | DUKE server | aced Julianna Santiago | +0.8 |
| 27 | 16-11 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Haleina Bowers | set Sofia Dawson | +0.4 |
| 28 | 17-11 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | blk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss | +0.5 |
| 29 | 17-12 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +0.4 |
| 30 | 17-13 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Sasha Bespaly | set Sofia Dawson | +0.8 |
| 31 | 18-13 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +0.8 |
| 32 | 19-13 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +0.7 |
| 33 | 19-14 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Yarimar Francis Garay | set Sofia Dawson | +0.3 |
| 34 | 20-14 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Yarimar Francis Garay | blk Nataly Moravec | +0.4 |
| 35 | 20-15 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +0.3 |
| 36 | 21-15 | NO FLA | DUKE×4 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +0.4 |
| 37 | 22-15 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Attack err | Sasha Bespaly | blk Breonna Goss, Ashby Zubchevich | +0.3 |
| 38 | 23-15 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Kill | Nikki Quinn | set Ashby Zubchevich | +0.1 |
| 39 | 24-15 | DUKE | DUKE×4 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | +0.0 | |
| 40 | 24-16 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +0.0 | |
| 41 | 24-17 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Haleina Bowers | set Sofia Dawson | +0.0 |
| 42 | 25-17 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +0.0 | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Yarimar Francis Garay | +1.3 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +0.8 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Breonna Goss | set Nikki Quinn | +0.8 |
| 5 | 3-2 | DUKE | NO FLA×3 | Serve err | DUKE server | +0.8 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | NO FLA | NO FLA×3 | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | +1.4 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | NO FLA | NO FLA×3 | Attack err | Breonna Goss | +1.6 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Haleina Bowers | blk Breonna Goss, Nataly Moravec | +1.0 |
| 9 | 4-5 | DUKE | NO FLA×4 | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.1 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Sofia Dawson | set Emma Pohlmann | +1.7 |
| 11 | 4-7 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +1.8 |
| 12 | 4-8 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Haleina Bowers | +1.8 | |
| 13 | 5-8 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.0 |
| 14 | 6-8 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +1.7 |
| 15 | 6-9 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +1.3 |
| 16 | 6-10 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | +1.9 | |
| 17 | 7-10 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 18 | 7-11 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +1.3 |
| 19 | 8-11 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 20 | 9-11 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +1.8 |
| 21 | 9-12 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.5 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Emma Pohlmann | +2.0 |
| 23 | 10-13 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Leah McDonald | blk Ashby Zubchevich, Breonna Goss | +1.1 |
| 24 | 11-13 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Dakota Spurrier | blk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss | +1.9 |
| 25 | 11-14 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.6 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.3 |
| 27 | 12-15 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +1.6 |
| 28 | 13-15 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nataly Moravec | +1.3 |
| 29 | 13-16 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | +1.7 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.3 |
| 31 | 14-17 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Sofia Dawson | set Dakota Spurrier | +1.8 |
| 32 | 15-17 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | +1.4 | |
| 33 | 15-18 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.8 | |
| 34 | 15-19 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Emma Pohlmann | +2.3 |
| 35 | 16-19 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 36 | 17-19 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Leah McDonald | +2.1 | |
| 37 | 18-19 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | +2.6 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Emma Pohlmann | +2.3 |
| 39 | 18-21 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Ace | NO FLA server | aced Nataly Moravec | +3.0 |
| 40 | 19-21 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nikki Quinn | set Nataly Moravec | +1.4 |
| 41 | 19-22 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +2.2 |
| 42 | 20-22 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.3 | |
| 43 | 20-23 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +2.3 | |
| 44 | 21-23 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 45 | 22-23 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Dakota Spurrier | +3.1 | |
| 46 | 22-24 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Haleina Bowers | set Sofia Dawson | +3.7 |
| 47 | 22-25 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +3.2 | |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | blk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson | +3.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +3.2 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 4 | 1-3 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +2.3 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | +3.0 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +2.2 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +2.1 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | DUKE | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +3.0 |
| 10 | 5-5 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +2.1 |
| 11 | 6-5 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 12 | 7-5 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | DUKE server | aced Emma Pohlmann | +2.8 |
| 13 | 8-5 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +2.5 |
| 14 | 8-6 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Yarimar Francis Garay | set Sofia Dawson | +1.6 |
| 15 | 9-6 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.7 |
| 16 | 10-6 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +2.1 |
| 17 | 10-7 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +1.3 |
| 18 | 11-7 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.4 |
| 19 | 11-8 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +1.3 |
| 20 | 12-8 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Haleina Bowers | +1.5 | |
| 21 | 13-8 | DUKE | DUKE | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | blk Breonna Goss, Avery Hamlin | +1.7 |
| 22 | 13-9 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.0 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Sofia Dawson | set Nataly Moravec | +1.9 |
| 24 | 14-10 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.5 | |
| 25 | 14-11 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +1.4 |
| 26 | 14-12 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Ace | NO FLA server | aced Ashby Zubchevich | +2.6 |
| 27 | 15-12 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +2.0 |
| 28 | 15-13 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +1.9 |
| 29 | 16-13 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Mailinh Godschall | +2.1 |
| 30 | 16-14 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +1.9 |
| 31 | 17-14 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +2.2 |
| 32 | 17-15 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.9 | |
| 33 | 17-16 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | blk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson | +3.8 |
| 34 | 18-16 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +2.9 | |
| 35 | 19-16 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +3.6 |
| 36 | 19-17 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +2.0 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Mailinh Godschall | +2.5 |
| 38 | 20-18 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +2.0 |
| 39 | 21-18 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Kaili Doctor | +2.6 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.5 |
| 41 | 23-18 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.2 |
| 42 | 23-19 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +0.3 | |
| 43 | 24-19 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +0.6 |
| 44 | 24-20 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +0.1 |
| 45 | 25-20 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +0.3 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +1.6 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Avery Hamlin | +2.5 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.6 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +2.3 |
| 5 | 3-2 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +2.2 |
| 6 | 3-3 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +1.6 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.5 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Emma Pohlmann | +2.1 |
| 9 | 5-4 | DUKE | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +1.4 |
| 10 | 5-5 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Kaili Doctor | +2.4 |
| 11 | 5-6 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +2.7 |
| 12 | 5-7 | NO FLA | NO FLA×4 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +2.9 |
| 13 | 6-7 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.8 |
| 14 | 6-8 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Carlyle Johnson | blk Haleina Bowers | +2.1 |
| 15 | 7-8 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.8 |
| 16 | 7-9 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +2.1 |
| 17 | 8-9 | NO FLA | DUKE | Attack err | Leah McDonald | blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Ashby Zubchevich | +1.9 |
| 18 | 8-10 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +2.2 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | NO FLA | DUKE | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.9 | |
| 20 | 9-11 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +2.3 | |
| 21 | 9-12 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +3.4 | |
| 22 | 10-12 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.9 |
| 23 | 10-13 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +2.4 | |
| 24 | 10-14 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Haleina Bowers | set Sofia Dawson | +3.3 |
| 25 | 11-14 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Serve err | NO FLA server | +1.8 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +3.1 |
| 27 | 13-14 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +3.4 |
| 28 | 13-15 | DUKE | NO FLA×3 | Kill | Dakota Spurrier | set Sofia Dawson | +2.7 |
| 29 | 13-16 | NO FLA | NO FLA×3 | Attack err | Nataly Moravec | +3.9 | |
| 30 | 13-17 | NO FLA | NO FLA×3 | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +3.6 |
| 31 | 14-17 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +1.8 |
| 32 | 14-18 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Carlyle Johnson | +2.6 | |
| 33 | 15-18 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Nikki Quinn | +1.8 |
| 34 | 15-19 | DUKE | NO FLA | Attack err | Ashby Zubchevich | +2.6 | |
| 35 | 15-20 | NO FLA | NO FLA | Kill | Kaili Doctor | set Sofia Dawson | +2.9 |
| 36 | 16-20 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Zoe Gillen-Malveaux | set Nikki Quinn | +1.1 |
| 37 | 17-20 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Emma Pohlmann | +2.5 |
| 38 | 17-21 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +2.7 |
| 39 | 18-21 | NO FLA | DUKE | Kill | Ashby Zubchevich | set Nikki Quinn | +1.5 |
| 40 | 19-21 | DUKE | DUKE | Ace | DUKE server | aced Team | +3.4 |
| 41 | 19-22 | DUKE | NO FLA | Kill | Leah McDonald | set Sofia Dawson | +3.6 |
| 42 | 20-22 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Haleina Bowers | +2.2 | |
| 43 | 21-22 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Ace | DUKE server | aced Dakota Spurrier | +4.9 |
| 44 | 22-22 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Dakota Spurrier | blk Avery Hamlin, Breonna Goss | +6.5 |
| 45 | 22-23 | DUKE | NO FLA | Serve err | DUKE server | +5.6 | |
| 46 | 23-23 | NO FLA | DUKE×3 | Kill | Nataly Moravec | set Avery Hamlin | +5.1 |
| 47 | 24-23 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Attack err | Dakota Spurrier | +9.0 | |
| 48 | 25-23 | DUKE | DUKE×3 | Kill | Avery Hamlin | set Nikki Quinn | +7.7 |
Score shown after each rally, Duke first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.