FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

East Carolina def. Old Dominion 3–0

(27-25, 25-12, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ODU	25	12	19	0
E CAR	27	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

E CAR above 50 · ODU below

Biggest swing: 7.6% to East Carolina — set 1, ODU 24-24 E CAR. East Carolina ace on Adrienne Peji. E CAR win probability 74% → 81%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ODU 13.9%86.1% E CAR

Old Dominion wins

3-0

2.0%

3-1

4.4%

3-2

7.5%

East Carolina wins

3-0

38.6%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

16.1%

ODU break %: 36.8% vs this opp
E CAR break %: 45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
E CAR serverAce+7.6%
East Carolina ace on Adrienne Peji
Set 1 · ODU 24-24 E CAR · E CAR 74% → 81%
02
Leilani LawrenceKill+6.2%
Kill by Leilani Lawrence (set by Wiktoria Zagumny)
Set 1 · ODU 24-22 E CAR · ODU 22% → 28%
03
Nina EdwardsKill+6.2%
Kill by Nina Edwards
Set 1 · ODU 25-26 E CAR · E CAR 81% → 88%
04
Ellie PateAttack error+5.1%
Attack error by Ellie Pate
Set 1 · ODU 25-24 E CAR · ODU 19% → 24%
05
Taryn GilreathKill+5.1%
Kill by Taryn Gilreath
Set 1 · ODU 25-25 E CAR · E CAR 76% → 81%
06
Elisa MaggiAttack error+5.1%
Attack error by Elisa Maggi
Set 1 · ODU 25-27 E CAR · E CAR 88% → 93%
07
Emma SchelahAttack error+4.5%
Attack error by Emma Schelah
Set 1 · ODU 22-22 E CAR · E CAR 77% → 82%
08
Emma SchelahKill+4.1%
Kill by Emma Schelah (set by Adrienne Peji)
Set 1 · ODU 21-19 E CAR · ODU 20% → 24%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Old Dominionaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Elisa MaggiOH	3	10	5	23	.217	1	0	2	5	0	0	0	10
11Emma SchelahMB	3	6	2	17	.235	0	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
5Wiktoria ZagumnyS	3	4	0	13	.308	23	0	0	7	0	3	1.5	5.5
17Rita BenidioOH	3	4	2	11	.182	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	4
14Emma DiRoccoMB	3	2	0	11	.182	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	2.5
0Adrienne PejiL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	3	13	2	0	0	0
18Leilani LawrenceOH	3	5	5	22	.000	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	6
8Katie RakoskiOH	3	3	4	13	-.077	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Ashlyn GentL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0
Team totals		34	18	111	.144	27	2	11	40	6	8	4	56

East Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie PateOH	3	13	6	39	.179	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	7	2	11	.455	2	2	2	7	1	0	2	1	10
11Kai BaileyMB	3	6	2	10	.400	0	0	0	3	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
7Nina EdwardsMB	3	6	0	8	.750	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	7
12Aulie HuffOH	3	4	1	17	.176	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	1	6
1Taryn GilreathS	3	5	2	17	.176	27	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Brooklyn AllisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	1	11	1	0	0	0	3
8Allison ButrumL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
16Clara CloningerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
22Brook WatkinsS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Lhogan WrightOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	13	102	.275	33	6	5	47	2	2	10	7	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ODU · E CAR 7

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 4 ODUE CAR 4

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 1 ODUE CAR 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 ODUE CAR 7

Bars above the line = East Carolina leads, below = Old Dominion leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Old Dominion

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%8/20	20%2/10
2	67%8/12	11%1/9
3	67%8/12	53%9/17
4	60%6/10	11%1/9
5	50%6/12	14%1/7
6	67%6/9	0%0/6
All	56%42/75	24%14/58

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	45%5/11
2	89%8/9	47%7/15
3	47%8/17	38%5/13
4	89%8/9	33%4/12
5	86%6/7	50%6/12
6	100%6/6	50%6/12
All	76%44/58	44%33/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	ODU-E CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ODU	ODU	Kill	Rita Benidio	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.5
2	1-1	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+1.0
3	2-1	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.1
4	2-2	ODU	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.0
5	2-3	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.4
6	2-4	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	E CAR server	aced Adrienne Peji	+1.3
7	2-5	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	E CAR server	aced Ashlyn Gent	+1.1
8	3-5	E CAR	ODU×4	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.8
9	4-5	ODU	ODU×4	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.3
10	5-5	ODU	ODU×4	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+1.6
11	6-5	ODU	ODU×4	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.8
12	6-6	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+1.1
13	7-6	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Wiktoria Zagumny	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.3
14	7-7	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Emma Ortiz	+1.2
15	8-7	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Leilani Lawrence	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.4
16	9-7	ODU	ODU	Ace	ODU server	aced Angeles Alderete	+2.1
17	9-8	ODU	E CAR×3	Serve err	ODU server		+1.3
18	9-9	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.9
19	9-10	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Nina Edwards		+1.8
20	10-10	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.3
21	10-11	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.2
22	11-11	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Katie Rakoski	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.4
23	11-12	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.3
24	12-12	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+1.4
25	12-13	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.4
26	13-13	E CAR	ODU×4	Kill	Leilani Lawrence	set Ashlyn Gent	+1.5
27	14-13	ODU	ODU×4	Ace	ODU server	aced Brooklyn Allison	+2.5
28	15-13	ODU	ODU×4	Kill	Wiktoria Zagumny	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.7
29	16-13	ODU	ODU×4	Attack err	Taryn Gilreath		+2.8
30	16-14	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+1.5
31	16-15	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Leilani Lawrence		+2.6
32	17-15	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+2.2
33	17-16	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+1.8
34	18-16	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Emma DiRocco	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+2.3
35	18-17	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+1.9
36	18-18	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Ellie Pate	+3.0
37	19-18	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Emma DiRocco	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+2.4
38	19-19	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+2.2
39	20-19	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+2.7
40	21-19	ODU	ODU	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Adrienne Peji	+4.1
41	21-20	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.2
42	22-20	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Angeles Alderete	blk Wiktoria Zagumny, Emma Schelah	+3.3
43	22-21	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+2.3
44	22-22	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Emma Schelah		+4.5
45	23-22	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+4.0
46	24-22	ODU	ODU	Kill	Leilani Lawrence	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+6.2
47	24-23	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.3
48	24-24	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced Adrienne Peji	+7.6
49	25-24	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+5.1
50	25-25	ODU	E CAR×3	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+5.1
51	25-26	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Nina Edwards		+6.2
52	25-27	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Elisa Maggi		+5.1
Set 2
1	0-1	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Leilani Lawrence	blk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff	+0.9
2	0-2	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Leilani Lawrence	blk Kai Bailey	+0.8
3	1-2	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.6
4	1-3	ODU	E CAR	Attack err	Elisa Maggi	blk Kai Bailey, Aulie Huff	+0.6
5	2-3	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Katie Rakoski	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.6
6	2-4	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
7	2-5	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Katie Rakoski		+0.8
8	3-5	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Katie Rakoski	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.5
9	3-6	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+0.5
10	4-6	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Wiktoria Zagumny		+0.5
11	4-7	ODU	E CAR	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.6
12	4-8	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Ellie Pate	+0.7
13	5-8	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.4
14	5-9	ODU	E CAR×3	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
15	5-10	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brooklyn Allison	+0.6
16	5-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.4
17	6-11	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Leilani Lawrence	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.2
18	6-12	ODU	E CAR×3	Attack err	Leilani Lawrence		+0.3
19	6-13	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brooklyn Allison	+0.3
20	6-14	E CAR	E CAR×3	Ace	E CAR server	aced Rita Benidio	+0.2
21	7-14	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Rita Benidio	set Elisa Maggi	+0.1
22	7-15	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
23	8-15	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.1
24	8-16	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Rita Benidio	+0.1
25	9-16	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.1
26	9-17	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+0.1
27	9-18	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Elisa Maggi		+0.1
28	10-18	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.0
29	10-19	ODU	E CAR×3	Attack err	Rita Benidio	blk Nina Edwards	+0.0
30	10-20	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Emma Schelah		+0.0
31	10-21	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Nina Edwards		+0.0
32	11-21	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Rita Benidio	set Ashlyn Gent	+0.0
33	11-22	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.0
34	11-23	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Rita Benidio		+0.0
35	12-23	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.0
36	12-24	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.0
37	12-25	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced Emma DiRocco	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
2	0-2	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Katie Rakoski	blk Angeles Alderete, Kai Bailey	+0.4
3	1-2	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.3
4	2-2	ODU	ODU	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.5
5	2-3	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
6	3-3	E CAR	ODU×3	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.4
7	4-3	ODU	ODU×3	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.6
8	5-3	ODU	ODU×3	Attack err	Taryn Gilreath		+0.7
9	5-4	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+0.4
10	5-5	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Elisa Maggi		+0.6
11	6-5	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Rita Benidio	+0.5
12	7-5	ODU	ODU	Kill	Wiktoria Zagumny	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.7
13	7-6	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.4
14	7-7	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Leilani Lawrence		+0.6
15	8-7	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.5
16	8-8	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.4
17	9-8	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Leilani Lawrence	set Angeles Alderete	+0.5
18	9-9	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
19	10-9	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+0.5
20	10-10	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
21	11-10	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+0.5
22	11-11	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+0.5
23	12-11	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Emma Schelah	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.6
24	12-12	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+0.5
25	13-12	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Emma Schelah, Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.6
26	13-13	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
27	14-13	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Wiktoria Zagumny, Emma Schelah	+0.6
28	14-14	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
29	15-14	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.7
30	15-15	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
31	16-15	E CAR	ODU	Attack err	Angeles Alderete	blk Katie Rakoski, Emma DiRocco	+0.7
32	16-16	ODU	E CAR×7	Serve err	ODU server		+0.6
33	16-17	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.9
34	16-18	E CAR	E CAR×7	Ace	E CAR server	aced Ashlyn Gent	+0.8
35	16-19	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Elisa Maggi	blk Kai Bailey, Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
36	16-20	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Katie Rakoski		+0.5
37	16-21	E CAR	E CAR×7	Attack err	Katie Rakoski	blk Angeles Alderete, Kai Bailey	+0.3
38	16-22	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
39	17-22	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Elisa Maggi	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.0
40	17-23	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
41	18-23	E CAR	ODU	Kill	Rita Benidio	set Wiktoria Zagumny	+0.0
42	18-24	ODU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.0
43	19-24	E CAR	ODU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.0
44	19-25	ODU	E CAR	Serve err	ODU server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Old Dominion first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.