North Texas vs East Carolina: East Carolina Wins 3-0 (Oct 2)

FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: East Carolina 52.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

East Carolina beat visiting North Texas 3-0 (30-28, 25-21, 25-20) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Ellie Pate led East Carolina with 13 kills; North Texas' Jahniya Jackson had a match-high 16.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NO TEX	28	21	20	0
E CAR	30	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

6 of the last 8 rallies went to East Carolina, closing out North Texas.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are East Carolina's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had East Carolina at 52%.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · North Texas 0–0 East Carolina
East Carolina scored 7 straight to open the set 7–0.
East Carolina 52% → 67%
Turning point 2: Set 1 · North Texas 21–23 East Carolina
3 straight North Texas kills turned a 21–23 deficit into a 24–23 lead. The match swung to North Texas.
East Carolina 65% → 44%
Turning point 3: Set 1 · North Texas 27–27 East Carolina
East Carolina won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 30–28 and lead 1–0.
East Carolina 51% → 71%

East Carolina above 50North Texas belowMax swing 10.2%

North TexasEast Carolina

Sideout %: North Texas 60.8·East Carolina 70.0
Break %: North Texas 30.0·East Carolina 39.2
Hitting: North Texas .239·East Carolina .236
Longest run: North Texas 4·East Carolina 7

Ellie Pate
13 kills on .250, 15.5 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

East Carolina above 50 · North Texas below

Biggest swing: 10.2% to North Texas — set 1, NO TEX 24-23 E CAR. Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Sidney Soria). E CAR win probability 54% → 44%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO TEX 30.4%69.6% E CAR

North Texas wins

3-0

5.8%

3-1

10.7%

3-2

13.9%

East Carolina wins

3-0

23.0%

3-1

26.7%

3-2

19.9%

NO TEX break %: 38.1% vs this opp
E CAR break %: 42.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Reagan BedellKill+10.2%
Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Sidney Soria)
Set 1 · NO TEX 24-23 E CAR · NO TEX 46% → 56%
02
Kai Bailey&Taryn GilreathBlock+10.1%
Jahniya Jackson stuffed by Kai Bailey & Taryn Gilreath
Set 1 · NO TEX 27-28 E CAR · E CAR 51% → 61%
03
Ellie Pate&Kai BaileyBlock+10.0%
Jocelyn Jourdan stuffed by Ellie Pate & Kai Bailey
Set 1 · NO TEX 28-30 E CAR · E CAR 61% → 71%
04
Reagan BedellKill+7.7%
Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Alessandra Romo)
Set 1 · NO TEX 23-23 E CAR · NO TEX 39% → 46%
05
Ekwe AnwahKill+7.1%
Kill by Ekwe Anwah (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 1 · NO TEX 24-24 E CAR · E CAR 44% → 51%
06
Loredana FouonjiKill+7.1%
Kill by Loredana Fouonji (set by Sidney Soria)
Set 1 · NO TEX 25-24 E CAR · NO TEX 49% → 56%
07
Ekwe AnwahKill+7.1%
Kill by Ekwe Anwah (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 1 · NO TEX 25-25 E CAR · E CAR 44% → 51%
08
Reagan BedellKill+7.1%
Kill by Reagan Bedell (set by Alessandra Romo)
Set 1 · NO TEX 26-25 E CAR · NO TEX 49% → 56%

Box score

Official NCAA box

North Texasaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Jahniya JacksonOH	3	16	8	39	.205	0	0	3	5	1	1	0	1	17
15Lillian CroshawOH	3	7	2	15	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	8
20Loredana FouonjiMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
1Dakota MitchellL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
23Sidney SoriaS	3	0	0	2	.000	21	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
3Addison AchillesMB	2	1	2	4	-.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
6Reagan BedellOH	3	11	2	21	.429	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	11
19Jocelyn JourdanOH	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
5Alessandra RomoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	2	11	0	0	0	0	0
7Olivia BranumS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
13Alexa HayesOPP	2	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
9Ryann VikMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		49	21	117	.239	48	1	12	45	4	2	4	4	69

East Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie PateOH	3	13	4	36	.250	0	0	2	9	0	0	5	2.5	15.5
6Ekwe AnwahMB	3	9	0	16	.563	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
12Aulie HuffOH	3	9	3	25	.240	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	3	4	15	-.067	3	3	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Kai BaileyMB	3	3	2	11	.091	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	6.5
1Taryn GilreathS	3	2	0	7	.286	30	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
21Jaci HallOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Allison ButrumL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Clara CloningerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	13	110	.236	35	4	5	43	1	1	16	9	80

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NO TEX · E CAR 7

Set 1

28-30

Longest run 4 NO TEXE CAR 7

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 2 NO TEXE CAR 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 NO TEXE CAR 4

Bars above the line = East Carolina leads, below = North Texas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	43%6/14
2	75%9/12	25%3/12
3	64%9/14	44%7/16
4	64%7/11	25%3/12
5	58%7/12	22%2/9
6	54%7/13	0%0/7
All	61%48/79	30%21/70

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	53%9/17
2	60%9/15	18%2/11
3	82%9/11	25%3/12
4	67%8/12	38%5/13
5	100%7/7	42%5/12
6	70%7/10	50%7/14
All	70%49/70	39%31/79

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

149 rallies

#	NO TEX-E CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.6
2	0-2	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.5
3	0-3	E CAR	E CAR×7	Blocked	Loredana Fouonji	blk Ellie Pate, Kai Bailey	+2.4
4	0-4	E CAR	E CAR×7	Ace	East Carolina	aced Dakota Mitchell	+2.3
5	0-5	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+2.0
6	0-6	E CAR	E CAR×7	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
7	0-7	E CAR	E CAR×7	Ace	East Carolina		+1.4
8	1-7	E CAR	NO TEX×3	Bad set	Emma Ortiz		+0.8
9	2-7	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.5
10	3-7	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Alessandra Romo	+1.8
11	3-8	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+1.4
12	4-8	E CAR	NO TEX×3	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+1.2
13	5-8	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+2.1
14	6-8	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Sidney Soria	+2.5
15	6-9	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.9
16	6-10	E CAR	E CAR	Blocked	Alexa Hayes	blk Ellie Pate, Ekwe Anwah	+2.5
17	7-10	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Sidney Soria	+1.5
18	7-11	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.8
19	8-11	E CAR	NO TEX	Serve err	East Carolina		+1.5
20	8-12	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Ekwe Anwah	+1.8
21	9-12	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+1.5
22	9-13	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.8
23	10-13	E CAR	NO TEX	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.5
24	10-14	NO TEX	E CAR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+1.9
25	11-14	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.5
26	12-14	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+2.8
27	12-15	NO TEX	E CAR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+2.3
28	12-16	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.8
29	13-16	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Sidney Soria	+1.5
30	13-17	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.0
31	14-17	E CAR	NO TEX	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+1.5
32	14-18	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.0
33	15-18	E CAR	NO TEX	Serve err	East Carolina		+1.5
34	15-19	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.0
35	16-19	E CAR	NO TEX	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.5
36	16-20	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.1
37	16-21	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Addison Achilles		+2.0
38	17-21	E CAR	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Alessandra Romo	+0.8
39	18-21	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+1.9
40	19-21	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Blocked	Ellie Pate	blk Loredana Fouonji	+2.9
41	20-21	NO TEX	NO TEX×4	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+4.4
42	20-22	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+4.0
43	21-22	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+3.1
44	21-23	NO TEX	E CAR	Bad set	Reagan Bedell		+4.5
45	22-23	E CAR	NO TEX×3	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+3.2
46	23-23	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Alessandra Romo	+7.7
47	24-23	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Sidney Soria	+10.2
48	24-24	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+7.1
49	25-24	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+7.1
50	25-25	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+7.1
51	26-25	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Alessandra Romo	+7.1
52	26-26	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+7.1
53	27-26	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+7.1
54	27-27	NO TEX	E CAR	Attack err	Addison Achilles		+7.1
55	27-28	E CAR	E CAR	Blocked	Jahniya Jackson	blk Kai Bailey, Taryn Gilreath	+10.1
56	28-28	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+7.0
57	28-29	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+7.0
58	28-30	E CAR	E CAR	Blocked	Jocelyn Jourdan	blk Ellie Pate, Kai Bailey	+10.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Alessandra Romo	+2.5
2	2-0	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+2.5
3	2-1	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
4	3-1	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.8
5	3-2	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+1.7
6	4-2	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.8
7	4-3	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.8
8	5-3	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+1.9
9	6-3	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+2.6
10	6-4	NO TEX	E CAR×3	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
11	6-5	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Jocelyn Jourdan		+2.6
12	6-6	E CAR	E CAR×3	Bad set	Olivia Branum		+2.8
13	7-6	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+2.0
14	7-7	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.0
15	7-8	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+3.0
16	8-8	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+2.1
17	8-9	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.1
18	8-10	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	East Carolina	aced Reagan Bedell	+3.0
19	9-10	E CAR	NO TEX	Serve err	East Carolina		+2.0
20	10-10	NO TEX	NO TEX	Blocked	Kai Bailey	blk Jahniya Jackson	+3.1
21	10-11	NO TEX	E CAR	Blocked	Lillian Croshaw	blk Ellie Pate, Kai Bailey	+2.3
22	11-11	E CAR	NO TEX	Serve err	East Carolina		+2.3
23	11-12	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.3
24	12-12	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Sidney Soria	+2.3
25	12-13	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Angeles Alderete	+2.4
26	13-13	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Ryann Vik	set Sidney Soria	+2.4
27	13-14	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.5
28	14-14	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+2.5
29	14-15	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.7
30	14-16	E CAR	E CAR	Blocked	Jocelyn Jourdan	blk Angeles Alderete, Kai Bailey	+3.8
31	15-16	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+2.4
32	15-17	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.8
33	16-17	E CAR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+2.5
34	16-18	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.9
35	17-18	E CAR	NO TEX	Serve err	East Carolina		+2.6
36	17-19	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+3.1
37	17-20	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah		+3.9
38	18-20	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+2.0
39	19-20	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+4.1
40	19-21	NO TEX	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+3.6
41	19-22	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Ekwe Anwah		+4.2
42	19-23	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.7
43	19-24	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+1.2
44	20-24	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+0.2
45	21-24	NO TEX	NO TEX	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.7
46	21-25	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
Set 3
1	1-0	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Sidney Soria	+1.1
2	1-1	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
3	2-1	E CAR	NO TEX×3	Blocked	Ellie Pate	blk Addison Achilles, Lillian Croshaw	+1.1
4	3-1	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Addison Achilles	set Olivia Branum	+1.7
5	4-1	NO TEX	NO TEX×3	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+1.6
6	4-2	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+1.0
7	5-2	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
8	5-3	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.0
9	5-4	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.7
10	6-4	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.2
11	7-4	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Olivia Branum	+1.7
12	7-5	NO TEX	E CAR×4	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Olivia Branum	+1.1
13	7-6	E CAR	E CAR×4	Bad set	Jocelyn Jourdan		+1.7
14	7-7	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.8
15	7-8	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+1.9
16	8-8	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jocelyn Jourdan	set Olivia Branum	+1.3
17	8-9	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.4
18	9-9	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Jahniya Jackson	set Sidney Soria	+1.4
19	9-10	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+1.4
20	10-10	E CAR	NO TEX	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.4
21	10-11	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.4
22	11-11	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Sidney Soria	+1.4
23	11-12	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.5
24	12-12	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Olivia Branum	+1.5
25	13-12	NO TEX	NO TEX	Ace	Dakota Mitchell		+2.3
26	13-13	NO TEX	E CAR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+1.6
27	14-13	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Addison Achilles	+1.6
28	15-13	NO TEX	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Olivia Branum	+2.4
29	15-14	NO TEX	E CAR	Blocked	Jahniya Jackson	blk Ekwe Anwah, Aulie Huff	+1.5
30	16-14	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Alexa Hayes	set Olivia Branum	+1.7
31	16-15	NO TEX	E CAR×4	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+1.6
32	16-16	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Lillian Croshaw		+2.6
33	16-17	E CAR	E CAR×4	Blocked	Loredana Fouonji	blk Kai Bailey	+2.7
34	16-18	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.7
35	17-18	E CAR	NO TEX	Blocked	Angeles Alderete	blk Loredana Fouonji, Lillian Croshaw	+1.7
36	17-19	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+2.0
37	18-19	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Loredana Fouonji	set Sidney Soria	+1.7
38	18-20	NO TEX	E CAR	Serve err	North Texas		+2.1
39	18-21	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Reagan Bedell		+2.6
40	19-21	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Lillian Croshaw	set Alessandra Romo	+1.3
41	19-22	NO TEX	E CAR	Blocked	Alexa Hayes	blk Ekwe Anwah, Ellie Pate	+1.9
42	19-23	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	East Carolina	aced Jahniya Jackson	+1.7
43	20-23	E CAR	NO TEX	Kill	Reagan Bedell	set Olivia Branum	+0.5
44	20-24	NO TEX	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Emma Ortiz	+1.1
45	20-25	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Jahniya Jackson		+0.4

Score shown after each rally, North Texas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

East Carolina def. North Texas 3–0

6 of the last 8 rallies went to East Carolina, closing out North Texas.